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MadMuncher


Registered: 10/27/12
Posts: 8,415
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: MadMuncher]
#26595037 - 04/12/20 04:30 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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they want everything bought on the apps
would be a decent bet they'll ban cash soon
Edited by MadMuncher (04/12/20 04:42 AM)
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: budmanman]
#26595040 - 04/12/20 04:41 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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budmanman said:
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koods said:
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budmanman said:
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koods said: As far as I know, all National Parks are open.
National parks are closed, state parks are closed. No where in my state is open at all and here is a random article I googled to show u a closed national park
https://www.nps.gov/aboutus/news/public-health-update.htm
I was in a national park yesterday along with a lot of other people.
Which park
Even the massive Yellow stone park is closed.
C&O canal
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: koods]
#26595045 - 04/12/20 04:49 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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They’ve been using antibody tests in other countries for weeks. This country has fucked up every step of the way. Has anyone heard a single detail of a plan on how to open back up and keep infections under control?
I do think that granting freedoms to people who have been infected that the non infected can’t enjoy would have serious consequences of people who intentionally try to get sick and “get it over with.”
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: koods]
#26595053 - 04/12/20 04:55 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I would suggest you just enjoy the fact despite not getting special privileges, you don’t have the burden of worrying about getting sick or infecting other people and just hunker down like the rest of us. And you probably shouldn’t be overstressing your body climbing mountains anyways.
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: koods] 1
#26595064 - 04/12/20 05:12 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: budmanman] 4
#26595269 - 04/12/20 08:46 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Parks and mountains around here got absolutely swamped with people once the shutdown happened. this vid is from a trailhead that usual has like 15 cars, there were hundreds: https://reddit.app.link/2M6B4m7ol5
One mild injury/rescue requires a coordinated effort by 8-12 rescuers to recover the person, if they need a stretcher then all these people are basically on top of each other, breathing in each others breath for hours, guaranteeing that if any of them have it (or you), everyone will have it.
With the shutdown there were tons of people with very little hiking experience going out, including people with COVID who won't realize it until they're halfway up the mountain and pass out from lack of oxygen (has already happened, multiple times), and just freak rolled ankle and other accidents that can happen to anyone. There would be a lot of rescues needed. Imagine being a rescuer who has to litter carry someone with COVID for hours?
Depending on the location, the rescuers are often from small mountain towns that cannot afford to deal with more COVID exposure, and often they're some of the only first responders in those towns too. Keeping open state/national parks means hoards of people from the cities coming to the rural towns, hitting up their gas stations and convenience stores, drenching whatever is still open in town in their germs.
Not to mention the trails are currently getting completely torn up. People want to social distance and so they hike on the outside of the trails when people are passing or coming towards them, which is horrible for the structure of the trail, especially since it's still mud season right now so the impact is even worse. I've done trail maintenance before, and trail widening is one of the most difficult things to repair, the damage is often permanent.
Trail head parking lots and bathrooms were also becoming cesspools, around my area at least.
I have plenty of back country spots I could go to and not see a soul, but the risk of an accident requiring a rescue just makes it not worth it. Me connecting with nature isn't worth putting other people at risk, for now I'll just stick to local spots where I'm a cell phone call to my wife and pair of crutches away from the road if something did go wrong.
Edited by feevers (04/12/20 09:31 AM)
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Dark_Star
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: budmanman]
#26595316 - 04/12/20 09:14 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
budmanman said:
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MadMuncher said: fuck
Essential workers will praise their 25k bonus (if that actually passes as a law anyway)
This is the first I’m hearing this.... I’ll take an extra $25K
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Niffla



Registered: 06/09/08
Posts: 46,805
Loc: Texas
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: budmanman]
#26595334 - 04/12/20 09:25 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
budmanman said:
National parks are closed, state parks are closed. No where in my state is open at all and here is a random article I googled to show u a closed national park
https://www.nps.gov/aboutus/news/public-health-update.htm
Yeah the vast majority of them are closed.
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Niffla



Registered: 06/09/08
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: budmanman]
#26595343 - 04/12/20 09:28 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
budmanman said:
Michigan made it illegal to buy fucking seeds to grow for fucking food lmao.
are you serious?
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imachavel
I loved and lost but I loved-ftw



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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: koods]
#26595353 - 04/12/20 09:35 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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koods said:
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budmanman said: I can touch a shopping cart and pick my nose. But I can't summit a mountain.
I am immune to the virus now, I should be allowed to do what ever the fuck I want.
As far as I know, all National Parks are open.
Wrong
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koods said:
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budmanman said:
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koods said:
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budmanman said: I can touch a shopping cart and pick my nose. But I can't summit a mountain.
I am immune to the virus now, I should be allowed to do what ever the fuck I want.
As far as I know, all National Parks are open.
National parks are closed, state parks are closed. No where in my state is open at all and here is a random article I googled to show u a closed national park
https://www.nps.gov/aboutus/news/public-health-update.htm
I was in a national park yesterday along with a lot of other people.
Wow that is amazing. I wish I lived where you lived. None of that anywhere near me. Locked down. In fast additionally the last 4 places I have been outside of the state in my life also within 100 miles of any of those places no national parks are open. I have seen some people nearby going to some of the local preserves. They basically sneak in when the cops switch up shifts. Only way in or out is to sneak your way past.
Quote:
budmanman said:
Quote:
koods said:
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budmanman said: I can touch a shopping cart and pick my nose. But I can't summit a mountain.
I am immune to the virus now, I should be allowed to do what ever the fuck I want.
As far as I know, all National Parks are open.
National parks are closed, state parks are closed. No where in my state is open at all and here is a random article I googled to show u a closed national park
https://www.nps.gov/aboutus/news/public-health-update.htm
This has been my experience as well
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imachavel
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: imachavel] 1
#26595355 - 04/12/20 09:36 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Ahab McBathsalts said: This is where the inevitable social discord will go.
Those that have had the virus or are otherwise healthy will want to open up the economy, go back to work, get on with it.
Old and frail people are stuck inside crippling the economy. But generally old people have more money and show up to vote more often.
So how many people to can you let die to save the majority of people from crippling financial burdens for a generation. Nassem Taleb has a great series of books about fragility of systems and random events. Although he doesn't directly address today's pandemic he makes the case that supporting a fragile system instead of letting parts of it fail inherently make the entire system more fragile in the future (in this case by adding 20Trillion dollars of debt to the US Federal debt), instead of letting a million people die and compromising civil liberties in previously un-thought ways for the next 100 years.
Neither option is very good. Both are fucking terrible in fact. But sometimes the system is worth more than the individual. Or those that feel they are being oppressed can rise up against it.
You do kind of have a point
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koods said: If you jut let the virus go unchecked more than the old people will die. Everyone that needs medical intervention will die. We can’t handle 40 million people requiring hospitalization to survive in a three month period. We have ~200,000 ICU beds. The mortality rate will be 10%.
If OP has really been infected, I predict within a month we will have commercially available antibody tests and hopefully a way to certify and allow the immune to resume normal activity.
Are you sure? Are you absolutely sure? I was not sure myself. The 750 times you mentioned that there will be 40 million deaths if people do not take this seriously enough flew over my head. I was not 100% positive that 40 million people will die if we don't lock this down. Btw this not really a good lockdown to begin with. Its so half assed it almost begs those to wonder why its even locked down at all. You can walk into a restaurant and get something to go. You can crowd into a grocery store instead of having an employee fetch your items while you wait by the door. Yet you can't go to the beach. But just in case we weren't all 500% sure that 40 million people could die if we do not lock the hell down out of this....
.... One more time? With links?
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budmanman said:
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Ahab McBathsalts said: I thought Americans had guns to fight off tyranny. Or did all the hardcores already run to their hideouts in the woods?
we skipped the well regulated part of the constitution so we don't know what to do
The constitution is made up as it goes along.
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Ahab McBathsalts said: I'm assuming the actual infection rate is about 10x the poasted numbers because systemic problems with a lack of testing. This implies a much lower hospitalization rate, death rate and a quicker path to herd immunity. Hard hit areas like New York might be as much as 25% of the 70% required for herd immunity. Still not great, but could be over before you know it.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1267405/coronavirus-herd-immunity-europe-death-toll-covid-19-germany-angela-merkel
But the information changes so fast it is hard to make a decision, let alone make the correct decision. That's why I'm thinking the third option of indecision and a lack of policy will be the official policy in the USA and Canada at least.
At this point lots of people have died. What does the exact number even matter anymore? They waited too long to lock down and locked down half ass. Its almost like everyone already has it. Its almost like everyone already had it and got over it except those dying and want to move on. Statistics don't prove this. It only proves more worst will happen.
Either way the fact is lots of peoples families suffer from loss of loved ones. I lost my mother 4 months ago. She had pneumonia. No it wasn't covid-19 it was alcoholism mixed with antibiotics and falling asleep outside in the snow. She got sick and died. Statistics won't bring her back. My pain is cemented. Still I hate to see people go homeless. Yes laws are in place and unemployment laws are in place etc. Etc. But being able to afford a lawyer helps with those things also. Not saying "fuck everyone they all die who cares." I am more saying these constant stats do not bring people back or end misery. There must be a way to help people with no money, virus or not, lockdown or not, one way or the other without just posting gloomy stats all day.
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Ahab McBathsalts said: And don't get me wrong. I like my overweight, diabetic cousin, and my old grandma and all those people. I don't wish death for anyone.
I am saying that propping up a fragile system makes it more inherently fragile and kicks the can down a bit, but makes the overall outcomes much worse.
If you use the war analogy that the politicians love to use these days, we once sent the boys and young men to die in war to prevent the tyranny of fascism. Now we are asking the old people and sickly to be willing to die to prevent mass surveillance and government sponsored oppression, crippling financial burdens for the next generation.
I don't think people are estimating how much the financial burdens are going to be. The USA has spent 25% of their GDP in one month on bailouts(4.2T) If you have 18 months of this shit, it would be cheaper for the government to buy every fucking private asset. Like the total market cap for all the S&P500 companies is only 21T. You could literally buy every fucking major company in the USA for the price that this is going to cost. Apple, Microsoft, Disney, Amazon, Facebook, Exonmobile, McDonalds, everything owned by the government. It is an underestimated tail risk right now.
That is of course the other side of the story
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budmanman said:
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Ahab McBathsalts said: And don't get me wrong. I like my overweight, diabetic cousin, and my old grandma and all those people. I don't wish death for anyone.
I am saying that propping up a fragile system makes it more inherently fragile and kicks the can down a bit, but makes the overall outcomes much worse.
If you use the war analogy that the politicians love to use these days, we once sent the boys and young men to die in war to prevent the tyranny of fascism. Now we are asking the old people and sickly to be willing to die to prevent mass surveillance and government sponsored oppression, crippling financial burdens for the next generation.
I don't think people are estimating how much the financial burdens are going to be. The USA has spent 25% of their GDP in one month on bailouts(4.2T) If you have 18 months of this shit, it would be cheaper for the government to buy every fucking private asset. Like the total market cap for all the S&P500 companies is only 21T. You could literally buy every fucking major company in the USA for the price that this is going to cost. Apple, Microsoft, Disney, Amazon, Facebook, Exonmobile, McDonalds, everything owned by the government. It is an underestimated tail risk right now.
they can shut fucking all the companies down for a few months, I don't care I will be getting 1250 or so a week in unemployment, everyone on unemployment will be getting what ever they qualify for 600 dollars.
I would like to go for a fucking walk in the fucking woods.
We are all dying for that. Seems less crowded and more socially distanced then the grocery stores
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Ahab McBathsalts said: No. You can't just shut down an economy. It's more like a plane in the air than a car on the road. If it stops, everything burns and dies.
If people don't pay their rent, the landlords don't pay their mortgages and their city taxes. If the city doesn't have any taxes it has to axe all services or default on it's debt. Debt defaults ripple though the financial system and ruin pensions and retirement savings. When the mortgages aren't paid you end up with another 2008 housing crisis. Like quickly. It only took 8% of morgages failing to destroy the system a decade ago and you are talking about 30% unemployment for the next 18 months. Like the entire economic system is fucked. 50% of people live pay check to pay check. It is a crisis in the most extreme sense.
Sure you can get the forebarance, but in 2008 60-90% of people that got a forebarance in the first 2 years of the financial crisis later defaulted on their mortgage. It is kicking the can down for financially irresponsible people rather than a get out of jail free card.
There will be suffering not seen in a generation no matter what the policy actions are taken. You collapse the economy into another great depression. Or you kill millions of people and traumatize a generation.
Stuck between a rock and a hard place. The rich escape and everyone else is fucked. One way or another.
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koods said: Oh lord no. Maybe in the most hard hit areas of New York City maybe 5% of the population is infected.
Currently the Bronx officially is about 1.5% of the population infected and .1% of the population has died. That’s not the CFR. Thats .1% of the entire population of the Bronx has died from covid.
South Korea’s CFR is about 2% and they likely have identified nearly all infected. Only 2% of their tests are positve, and they are only seeing a few dozen new cases a day. Their CFR is probably very close to the real number. There is a town in Italy of 4600 with 75 deaths. Testing there shows that at least 2/3 of the population is or had been infected. Regardless, their mortality rate (deaths/population) is 1.6%. That means the CFR is at least 1.6.
The true CFR for covid is somewhere between 1.5% and 2%
There is no major country in the world with a CFR below 2% that I am aware of. Even Germany is now 2.3%
I think a good way to estimate the number of cases is to take the deaths and divide by .0175 (this only applies if the healthcare system has been able to handle the stress.)
So the US has ~21000 deaths: 1.2 million infections
Your point?
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imachavel
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: imachavel] 1
#26595359 - 04/12/20 09:37 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said: You seem to think that it’s a binary choice. Either we let the virus run its course and have an open economy or we prevent mass death but we crash the economy. The thing is if we let the virus do it’s thing, the economy will still come to grinding halt. People will be too afraid to work if they aren’t sick and the sick will consume and ravage the healthcare system. This is not the flu. People with covid are sick for weeks. Look what’s happened in NYC with a just a tiny fraction of the population infected. 3-5% of a country’s population dying within a few months would ruin economies, not just put it on hold.
Sadly the economy could improve with less ground level competition
Quote:
budmanman said:
Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: No. You can't just shut down an economy. It's more like a plane in the air than a car on the road. If it stops, everything burns and dies.
If people don't pay their rent, the landlords don't pay their mortgages and their city taxes. If the city doesn't have any taxes it has to axe all services or default on it's debt. Debt defaults ripple though the financial system and ruin pensions and retirement savings. When the mortgages aren't paid you end up with another 2008 housing crisis. Like quickly. It only took 8% of morgages failing to destroy the system a decade ago and you are talking about 30% unemployment for the next 18 months. Like the entire economic system is fucked. 50% of people live pay check to pay check. It is a crisis in the most extreme sense.
Sure you can get the forebarance, but in 2008 60-90% of people that got a forebarance in the first 2 years of the financial crisis later defaulted on their mortgage. It is kicking the can down for financially irresponsible people rather than a get out of jail free card.
There will be suffering not seen in a generation no matter what the policy actions are taken. You collapse the economy into another great depression. Or you kill millions of people and traumatize a generation.
They'll pay their rent, most people will be making more from unemployment than they did at their fucking job thanks to the 600 extra a week, THATS 600 EXTRA A WEEK! ONTOP OF YOUR REGULAR UNEMPLOYMENT!
Depends on the state you live in. Unemployment by itself is a shit wage that won't your rent none the less your food plus rent. Its an emergency measure not designed for prolonged crisis. None of these politicians seem to be prepared for prolonged crisis or ever were.
Quote:
koods said: They’ve been using antibody tests in other countries for weeks. This country has fucked up every step of the way. Has anyone heard a single detail of a plan on how to open back up and keep infections under control?
I do think that granting freedoms to people who have been infected that the non infected can’t enjoy would have serious consequences of people who intentionally try to get sick and “get it over with.”
Enjoy anything? What is to enjoy? It kind of does not seem like you will be happy until everyone totally agrees with you that its fucked we are all fucked you are fucked and I am fucked and its time to put a gun to my head and pull the trigger and end it already.
What is your suggestion anyway? Is there a single positive thing from your direction? Does anyone have a chance?
You have clearly listed the cons. Are there any pros? If you continue I will believe they should just fire the nukes already and save the remaining world population the stress of suffering any further
(I tried to put this all in post but there is a 15 maximum)
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Niffla



Registered: 06/09/08
Posts: 46,805
Loc: Texas
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: koods] 2
#26595362 - 04/12/20 09:39 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said:
C&O canal
I just called them to see if they were open and the person who answered told me to go fuck myself and asked me if I heard of this thing called the coronavirus
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imachavel
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: feevers]
#26595365 - 04/12/20 09:40 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said: Parks and mountains around here got absolutely swamped with people once the shutdown happened. this vid is from a trailhead that usual has like 15 cars, there were hundreds: https://reddit.app.link/2M6B4m7ol5
One mild injury/rescue requires a coordinated effort by 8-12 rescuers to recover the person, if they need a stretcher then all these people are basically on top of each other, breathing in each others breath for hours, guaranteeing that if any of them have it (or you), everyone will have it.
With the shutdown there were tons of people with very little hiking experience going out, including people with COVID who won't realize it until they're halfway up the mountain and pass out from lack of oxygen (has already happened, multiple times), and just freak rolled ankle and other accidents that can happen to anyone. There would be a lot of rescues needed. Imagine being a rescuer who has to litter carry someone with COVID for hours?
Depending on the location, the rescuers are often from small mountain towns that cannot afford to deal with more COVID exposure, and often they're some of the only first responders in those towns too. Keeping open state/national parks means hoards of people from the cities coming to the rural towns, hitting up their gas stations and convenience stores, drenching whatever is still open in town in their germs.
Not to mention the trails are currently getting completely torn up. People want to social distance and so they hike on the outside of the trails when people are passing or coming towards them, which is horrible for the structure of the trail, especially since it's still mud season right now so the impact is even worse. I've done trail maintenance before, and trail widening is one of the most difficult things to repair, the damage is often permanent.
Trail head parking lots and bathrooms were also becoming cesspools, around my area at least.
I have plenty of back country spots I could go to and not see a soul, but the risk of an accident requiring a rescue just makes it not worth it. Me connecting with nature isn't worth putting other people at risk, for now I'll just stick to local spots where I'm a cell phone call to my wife and pair of crutches away from the road if something did go wrong.
I kind of think there is a difference between trying to help someone with a quarantine and trying to babysit everyone until the planet is better. People get sick and make their own choices. Airplanes take off. The world goes. The question here is at what point are the hospitals not overwhelmed and are people allowed to continue to take risks?
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koods
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: imachavel] 1
#26595376 - 04/12/20 09:48 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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My point is we are not even remotely close to a herd immunity situation. Many people are vastly overestimating the actual penetration of the virus into the population . Maybe 2-4% of the population has been infected in NYC. Most places in the country have less than 1% infected.
If we had strategic testing set up by the end of the month - and in exchange for opening up businesses that don’t involve mass gatherings - there will be a strict and supervised quarantine and isolation policy for the infected and those with known exposure. We could get back to a reasonable amount of business activity next month. But this only works with mandatory supervised quarantine. Even a small number of cheaters would undermine this strategy
We have the testing capacity to do this now, once the current wave is tailing off. Like when New York is down to 200 or fewer cases a day or we get down to having only 2-4% positive tests. With a good testing regime, you could keep daily cases at a low but steady rate, or even continue to reduce.
Edited by koods (04/12/20 09:56 AM)
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imachavel
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: koods]
#26595443 - 04/12/20 10:24 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said: My point is we are not even remotely close to a herd immunity situation. Many people are vastly overestimating the actual penetration of the virus into the population . Maybe 2-4% of the population has been infected in NYC. Most places in the country have less than 1% infected.
If we had strategic testing set up by the end of the month - and in exchange for opening up businesses that don’t involve mass gatherings - there will be a strict and supervised quarantine and isolation policy for the infected and those with known exposure. We could get back to a reasonable amount of business activity next month. But this only works with mandatory supervised quarantine. Even a small number of cheaters would undermine this strategy
We have the testing capacity to do this now, once the current wave is tailing off. Like when New York is down to 200 or fewer cases a day or we get down to having only 2-4% positive tests. With a good testing regime, you could keep daily cases at a low but steady rate, or even continue to reduce.
We could start to grow back to a normal business regime starting as soon as next month? Koods that is the most positive thing I have ever heard you say!
You see now that is a good plan! So if we implement that plan we can all survive then get the ability to maintain our homes and livelyhood back? We just need to stop the cheaters?
How do we stop the cheaters?
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I did not say to edit my signature soulidarity! Now forever I will never remember what I said about understanding the secrets of the universe by paying attention to subtleties!
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: imachavel]
#26595447 - 04/12/20 10:26 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Dark_Star
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: imachavel]
#26595448 - 04/12/20 10:27 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Cheaters will be shot on sight
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,333
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 2 hours, 23 minutes
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: Dark_Star]
#26595456 - 04/12/20 10:32 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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China sealed people’s door and if the seal was broken, they were taken to a detention center to compete their quarantine. They are allowed to get deliveries and are free to work or other activities as long as they remain inside.
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,117
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: So we can't even go on hikes now? [Re: koods]
#26595529 - 04/12/20 11:07 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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You need to have testing capacity for 22 million people per day and be able to access people's mobile phone GPS data with impunity. Both programs require a high degree of organization, planning, execution and safe guards to prevent abuse. The government is still struggling to do something as simple as to mail cheques to everyone. It's going to be an uphill battle.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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