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Kryptos
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CCL, Royal
#26572068 - 04/01/20 09:07 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Anybody else thinking this might be a great buying opportunity? CCL shit the bed at 8$ a share, and their CEO is about to slob donnie's knob for a bailout.
I'm thinking this is a 6-10x return or a complete bust. Probably worth the gamble. I dumped a few k their way.
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: CCL, Royal [Re: Kryptos]
#26572227 - 04/01/20 10:28 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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I think it's going to zero.
So many industries need to be bailed out. Like mortgage realestate investment trusts, the airlines, the banks, the hotels, the automobile manufacturers, boeing, the oil industry, coal miners and on and on. Fuck even municipal bonds are weak. The market is pricing that cities will have a higher default rate because landlords aren't going to pay their property tax in a few months.
It's a huge fucking line of people wanting bail outs. Every residential renter is crying about rent forgiveness, the landlords are crying about mortgage payment forgiveness, the mortgage reits are begging the fed for money. Like everyone has their hand out. The USA dumped 2.2Trillion and it's not even close to being enough. It's gunna take another 6. And even after a year of quarentine and a million deaths in the USA you think anyone will want to get on a cruise ever again? It'll be years before their is a cruise industry.
I don't think we can bail out everyone. It's just too much. It's too wasteful. We will need to do something radical or the weight of the mediocre will drag down the economy again in 8 or 10 years to another near crisis. You have to let these over leveraged shitty companies fail. They need to set up a commission like the treuhandanstalt that West Germany had at the fall of the Berlin wall and decide which companies are worth bailing out and which ones will fail. After performing the triage and deciding who must live and die in the hospitals, we must do the same for our economy.
So shit, anyway I'd give the cruise lines a sell.
Edit: There is also something about how the cruise ships are registered in different countries and file their taxes outside of the USA. I would think that would be a big sticking point in getting a USA bailout when you aren't a USA corp.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
Edited by Ahab McBathsalts (04/01/20 11:41 PM)
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Kryptos
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I think everyone that shows proper fealty to dear leader is getting bailed out, to be honest. McConnell already said that deficit reductions are not a priority under a republican administration.
I also don't see why cruise lines being non-US companies is going to matter, as long as they show fealty. We've been pumping money into Brazilian ag since 2018.
I doubt people will stop taking cruises, I figure they will be up and running within 5 years. People have a short memory. Remember how the Titanic just rebranded cruises into a luxury vacation instead of a travel method? Plus, the companies are still sitting on a bunch of assets in the form of ships which are still worthwhile.
I agree that we need to stop supporting zombie companies that are leveraged to shit and can't survive a week of reduced business. But I doubt that this will happen anytime soon. Definitely not in this administration. Causing such an economic extinction event would be political suicide. It simply easier to socialize the losses in the American system.
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: CCL, Royal [Re: Kryptos] 1
#26572859 - 04/02/20 09:11 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Even if they get up and running in 5 years, they will still need to declare bankruptcy and the equity holders will get wiped out. Debt converted to new equity.
I feel like we are in the 1st inning of this financial crisis. Like the game has started, there have been like 2 or 3 bankruptcies, but it's only just begun.
If you like long shots dependant on a bailout I'd take Boeing. At least they can use the strategic to national defense, they employ American workers, and there really isn't anyone to replace them.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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ManianFH
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Agreed. There are much less risky companies if youre looking to 5x on a hope and prayer. Even to turn a profit in the near term there are better options. The cruise industry is sacked for the forseeable future, that much we all seem to agree on.
I am no expert but have learned that putting my money now into something that I expect to bring returns 5 years from now doesnt make sense. Why not just wait until 4 years from now and enter then with money you had better invested? I dunno, dont listen to me, listen to the more experienced here but they seem to see things the same.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Kryptos
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Quote:
mick said: I am no expert but have learned that putting my money now into something that I expect to bring returns 5 years from now doesnt make sense. Why not just wait until 4 years from now and enter then with money you had better invested? I dunno, dont listen to me, listen to the more experienced here but they seem to see things the same.
I fucked up the bitcoin run pretty bad (i.e., made less than 500% profits), so I've been thinking more along the lines of catching then on the downswing is the same as the upswing on an identical price if you miss the bottom.
Partly why I floated (heh) the idea here, too.
Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: If you like long shots dependant on a bailout I'd take Boeing. At least they can use the strategic to national defense, they employ American workers, and there really isn't anyone to replace them.
I thought about that, but it seemed to be too much the obvious choice. I figure other people are thinking the same thing and it's priced in. Same with airlines.
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: CCL, Royal [Re: Kryptos]
#26574083 - 04/02/20 09:44 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Short the Euro if you want a long shot. No one is betting that the Euro will collapse and italy, greece and spain will be kicked out and $DB will fail.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Brian Jones
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: I think it's going to zero.
So many industries need to be bailed out. Like mortgage realestate investment trusts, the airlines, the banks, the hotels, the automobile manufacturers, boeing, the oil industry, coal miners and on and on. Fuck even municipal bonds are weak. The market is pricing that cities will have a higher default rate because landlords aren't going to pay their property tax in a few months.
It's a huge fucking line of people wanting bail outs. Every residential renter is crying about rent forgiveness, the landlords are crying about mortgage payment forgiveness, the mortgage reits are begging the fed for money. Like everyone has their hand out. The USA dumped 2.2Trillion and it's not even close to being enough. It's gunna take another 6. And even after a year of quarentine and a million deaths in the USA you think anyone will want to get on a cruise ever again? It'll be years before their is a cruise industry.
I don't think we can bail out everyone. It's just too much. It's too wasteful. We will need to do something radical or the weight of the mediocre will drag down the economy again in 8 or 10 years to another near crisis. You have to let these over leveraged shitty companies fail. They need to set up a commission like the treuhandanstalt that West Germany had at the fall of the Berlin wall and decide which companies are worth bailing out and which ones will fail. After performing the triage and deciding who must live and die in the hospitals, we must do the same for our economy.
So shit, anyway I'd give the cruise lines a sell.
Edit: There is also something about how the cruise ships are registered in different countries and file their taxes outside of the USA. I would think that would be a big sticking point in getting a USA bailout when you aren't a USA corp.
Yes. In terms of prioritizing industries that need to survive, cruise has to be at the bottom. Completely new companies could create a new cruise industry after this is over, and if not, it's not that vital. I was thinking it would be a good idea to bet on cruise stocks to lose, but if I thought of it, 10,000 other people already have.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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ManianFH
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Re: CCL, Royal [Re: Kryptos]
#26581720 - 04/06/20 01:17 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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If you arent closely following, looks like a lot of money moved into CCL, providing a bump up on the day. Consdering its average was in the $40-50 range not too long ago, this seems a little interesting. People have faith (and maybe significant entities) that there will be a time when things bounce back for this company.
I still cannot justify exposure to them, especially right this second. But maybe its worth keeping a thumb on the pulse of the cruise industry in the next 3-6 months.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Kryptos
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Good call. I haven't paid attention, because if I pay attention I start day trading (read: losing money). I'm only comfortable day trading bitcoin. Which is kinda weird, I guess, but I've been around for the entirety of bitcoin and it just...makes sense, I guess? I don't know why, maybe it's mindset (I assume all money I put in bitcoin is lost), but I'm a lot better making money of bitcoin swings than regular market swings.
Like I said in OP, I put in a little bit that I am willing to lose. I think if it hits 20$ a share without a broad market recovery, I'll probably bail out because that seems fishy.
Even today's move seems fishy, TBH. +20% when the market is +7%? I have the distinct feeling that someone knows something I don't, and I think it is what you might call a "significant entity". That's always dangerous, I've participated in enough pump-n-dumps in the runescape GE to know that.
EDIT: Seems that Saudi Arabia bought an 8.2% stake in CCL today. I'd call this an adequate explanation for the additional price jump over the market. Someone 100% knows something the rest of us don't.
Edited by Kryptos (04/06/20 10:38 PM)
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: CCL, Royal [Re: Kryptos]
#26582968 - 04/06/20 10:52 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Boats burn diesel.
277 cruise ships in the world each burning 150t of fuel a day. They need those ponies running to keep oil consumption up.
The cruise industry burns 290,000 barrels of oil a day. If the boats are stuck in bankruptcy or some other shit they can't run and it further drops crude demand. It's not a huge percent of global consumption, but it would be in the top 50 for countries.
Maybe. That would be my guess anyway.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Kryptos
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That's was my thought as well, but is it worth buying a failing business to prop up another business?
This also brings up the question of where does that put CCL stock?
SA has been pushing the tourist destination thing pretty heavily lately. Which makes me think this could be a long term buy. SA will run it at a loss for a bit and keep it afloat for the eventual SA cruises.
Hence the someone knowing something we don't.
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geokills
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Re: CCL, Royal [Re: Kryptos]
#26586807 - 04/08/20 04:44 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Kryptos said: Anybody else thinking this might be a great buying opportunity?
I can't in good conscience call the cruise lines a great buying opportunity, they have so much debt-to-equity that they are at real risk of bankruptcy. However, that doesn't mean there isn't opportunity, and oddly enough, bankruptcy (depending on the structure) could potentially give the stock a boost. To limit both my capital outlay and risk of loss, I have been considering a bull call spread on CCL: buying a January 2021 $10 call option and selling the higher strike $20 call option to reduce the cost basis. This trade can currently be had for $3, meaning a risk of losing $3 to make $7 if CCL is trading above $20 in nine months. Frankly, I'd rather wait to see if we get another downdraft in order to get that spread for $2 (or switch to lower strikes such as the Jan $7.50/$17.50 for ~ $3). It's a bit of a lotto ticket, but an acceptable risk/reward for this sort of scenario, I think.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Kryptos
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That's significantly more fancy investing than anything I've ever done.
Unrelated: any ideas why unemployment is up several percent, and the market seems completely cool with it? I don't like saying "money printer go brrrrrr" but I'm running out of ideas. Either that or one of those calm before the storm bounces.
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: CCL, Royal [Re: Kryptos] 1
#26589618 - 04/09/20 08:12 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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The market isn't pricing in 30% unemployment and the deepest recession in a generation with extreme risks of stagflation, deflation, or hyperinflation. Monetary and fiscal policy is like threading a needle at 20 meters to achieve price stability and there is a high likely hood of a misstep.
There is no way everyone is going back to work after this. Sure 80 or 95% will within a few month or a year, but you will still be left with extremely high unemployment.
The Fed can't fix this.
Or you could take the view that the markets typically price the economy 6 months in advance and that after 6 months earnings will return, so the initial haircut was a fast and sharp repricing, but based on a discounted cash flow model of pricing, stocks are adequetely valued.
My homie Downtown Josh Brown and his buddy laid out the headlines from the 1932 stock market bottom in their podcast.
At around minute 13:00 he goes into the headlines from the time and the market usually starts going up months before the worst economic news is in.
But realistically, I think we were just really oversold and it needed a violent rally to take some pressure off. I'm thinking we get a couple of flat days next week and start down towards another downward leg after the Easter Weekend numbers and a couple more companies disclose how bad things are going to get, or file for bankruptcy.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Kryptos
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So...CCL got their bailout.
I think my gamble might be paying off.
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: CCL, Royal [Re: Kryptos]
#26632818 - 04/27/20 07:19 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Respect to a good trade. Book value is like $35 / share though, it's still trading like it's gunna bleed cash for the next year.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Kryptos
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It's the first time I'm investing in something that isn't either a target date fund or a roboadvisor. I'm pretty happy.
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