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Invisibleredgreenvines
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Re: End of Empire [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #26565640 - 03/29/20 04:08 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

so south korea huh?

learn from who does it right


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InvisibleYellow Pants
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Re: End of Empire [Re: redgreenvines]
    #26565673 - 03/29/20 04:33 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

DividedQuantum said:
Well, now you're getting into hypotheticals. All I'm attempting to do is diagnose the problem. Who the hell knows what's going to happen. Not I.




Uh, there was a bug, people got fearful and shut business down?


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Invisiblelaughingdog
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Re: End of Empire [Re: Yellow Pants]
    #26565690 - 03/29/20 04:50 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

.    It is possible we enter some sort of dark ages. It depends on how much technology gets shut down, especially those that are very hard to start up again. Or even impossible to start up again.
.    Especially if it depends upon intricate supply chains in different countries and depends upon experts, that have either died, or moved (left no forwarding address).
.    For instance cell phones use precious metals that are very scarce, & some come from places like Africa.
.  How large are ship crews on container ships? What happens if some crew members come down with covid-19 a few days after leaving port?
.  Just a few examples, I really do not have the expertise to judge the extent of the issue, but I do have enough imagination to realize it could be another ignored elephant in the room.

.  This is on another level than just economic depression. When new computers and chips are no longer designed and built, and so on, then the foundations of what we have come to consider civilization, will be very vulnerable ...  much of "brave New World" & "1984" came true -- now we will see if even more dystopian Science fiction has been a good predictor.


Edited by laughingdog (03/29/20 04:55 PM)


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InvisibleYellow Pants
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Re: End of Empire [Re: laughingdog] * 1
    #26565791 - 03/29/20 05:41 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Not the cellphones

:fatfear:


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InvisibleRahz
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Re: End of Empire [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #26565998 - 03/29/20 08:11 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

DividedQuantum said:
Quote:

Rahz said:
I understand wanting something good to come out of something bad, but there are no good outcomes here. More paranoia, more authoritarianism, more xenophobia, more infringement on personal liberty. I'm not talking the USA, I'm talking countries the world over. I understand the USA isn't an angel but if it were to collapse China would love it. World stability will vanish. Regional conflicts will flare up. And if it has a significant impact on international trade, high unemployment rates will be the least of the American's problem.

The best we can hope for is for things to get somewhat back to normal as soon as possible.





I entirely agree. I'm pessimistic, because it seems, as bad as things are now, that we're still essentially in the early phases. But yes, getting back to normal, to what we had two months ago, would be a lot better than several alternatives that might, and very possibly will, take place.




It remains to be seen how things will pan out or how long work is restricted to essential services, but people will be talking about the response for years. I expect there's a lag in shipped goods from China. Being the case, they have things running again but there will be a period of weeks before those boats get here. China is running again. I suspect America will get back to work as well. The media will hype it and make it seem as bad as possible as long as possible and it may be a while before the deaths peter out but life will go on.

Lots of people lost money in stocks. The national debt just went up trillions. Knowing Americans, there will be a plethora of N95 masks tucked away if there's a next time. We'll be handing out masks like candy to those who don't have them. M3 will make billions and Chinese factories will jump in on the trend and make money too. If the inflation rate increases we can blame that on the coronavirus and it's response.

A lot of people will experience economic relief in the absence of toilet paper on their grocery list for a few months, or years. :haha:

I wouldn't say a major breakdown of the system is likely, but the obviously apparent results aren't good. I'm not sure about the likelyhood of worse scenarios but that's because it's difficult to estimate the capacity of humans for ignorance and bad behavior, along with the potential of the disease at this point. There are still millions at work doing essential services so we'll see how bad "normal" life really is in a few weeks and be in a better place to determine when to lift work restrictions.

But when it's over, somehow, somewhere there will be permanent reductions in individual liberty. There will be higher taxes. There will be an unemployment issue that may take years to work out, but old business will open and new businesses will start. So we'll get past it, but it will likely/hopefully only be a bump in this system. It's an episode in a fatalistic story, but there will still be time for real solutions to avoid nature taking it's course.


--------------------
rahz

comfort pleasure power love truth awareness peace


"You’re not looking close enough if you can only see yourself in people who look like you." —Ayishat Akanbi


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Invisiblelaughingdog
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Re: End of Empire [Re: Rahz]
    #26566058 - 03/29/20 09:06 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

.  A lot of answers depend, on testing, to determine actual rates of infection & transmission & death.
.  And tests let us know who to quarantine. Other than perhaps China & south Korea, test kits & testing remain inadequate, in many places.
.  And a lot depends upon whether hospitals can handle places where infection has not yet peaked; and that includes both having still healthy, health care workers & supplies.
.  Compliance with distancing, what is happening in Russia & Africa, also remain unknowns.
.  Seems too early to draw final conclusions with any hope of accuracy. Short term it gets worse.


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InvisibleDividedQuantumM
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Re: End of Empire [Re: Rahz] * 1
    #26566066 - 03/29/20 09:11 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Well you make good points Rahz. But I would say that the economy is taking a huge hit, which will have lasting effects. After all, Trump wouldn't be so obsessed with getting everyone back to work if he weren't taking a huge hit himself. Obviously, we see this in the huge overall losses in the stock market. But what that means of course is that money has ceased to flow, and that has happened because tens of millions have put their work on hold (many of whom have already been laid off). So, while millions of essential workers are still working, in a major way huge sectors of the economy are just frozen.

And such a hit will not simply be erased when the crisis is over. It will lead to a slowdown, which will lead to a recession, very probably a global one. With luck it will not be a full-blown depression, but as I have said it's still early, and who knows what will happen over the next months. In any case, I have seen many experts saying there could well be an unemployment rate in the U.S. of 20-25% when all is said and done, and that is a gigantic problem for the people and for the economy, for all of society. Whatever happens, it seems clear there will be very long-lasting changes as a result of this, if not many permanent ones.

So, for me, what has already happened by today is a major blow to the economy. As I have said before, we are still only in the early stages of this. So clearly, the economic picture grows more dire by the day. Notwithstanding the virus itself, I think global markets are descending into a big problem for the whole planet.


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Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici


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Invisiblepineninja
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Re: End of Empire [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #26566091 - 03/29/20 09:32 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

There is a few people making a shit ton of cash on forex and the like atm.


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Just a fool on the hill.


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InvisibleDividedQuantumM
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Re: End of Empire [Re: pineninja]
    #26566097 - 03/29/20 09:36 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Well obscene paper speculation goes back aways.


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Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici


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InvisibleThe Blind Ass
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Re: End of Empire [Re: DividedQuantum] * 1
    #26566281 - 03/30/20 12:18 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Good point QD, my brother and I were discussing the implications of the feds adding money to the wold economy printing money for sure, but more so than that, simply adding it on a computer screen, it’s like they’re not even trying to hide the fact.

The reason for such great concern over the viruses aren’t simply because it can potentially decimate the world population (decimate meaning 10%) , an thats estimation on my part, don’t know if it could potentially be more liberal or conservative, hopefully the latter though,
But because of how it effects the man made systems of a largely globalized world.  The economy being a major factor that in its own right, through inadvertent consequences brought about by trying to manage a pandemic, it can easily change the current course of history- hell it already has.  But in cases like this, of global crisis, it’s really the unknown factors that come into play after the ball, or mechanisms of things have started going , that we begin to realize the extent of the damage done.

Some who know me think my reaction of great concern with a tinge of healthy fear is simply “negative” thinking, I tend to wish they were correct; however, this  urgent scenario will test things beyond their limits of their structure and function, and in bio-chem, that only ever means one thing,  chaos and breakdown and ensuing change until a more adapted iteration of the previous systems that everything in our worlds man made systems are interfaced into.

Woke up in a cold sweat panting tonight, after seeing my brain play out my fears with an extended version of the consequences insuing.

The virus, the ensuing managment effort and the corruption around and within it, unemployment at a new level, the loss of a couple or few millions of peoples who we really loved us, The staggering and unplayable growing debt, natural disasters - fires, hurricanes, flooding, tornadoes, drought, famine, other illnesses, and public and private malcontempt and a general sense of unease and global and neighborly isolationism brought about by the combo of the above (all things that happen in a regular yearly earth cycle). 

The stress those yearly factors will play  throughout the rest of 2020 can utterly stress a system to its max and beyond, breaking what little illusory control people think is in place, and take for granted.

When I woke up, what frightened me most was seeing that more now than ever, there is, as always the ability to become enchanted by the chaos and indifference , jumping in with the mire of those who want it all to burn or have no hope...

It struck me sober, that if I can’t bring myself to be a force for, and an leading example of morality, concentration,and wisdom -  doing no evil, and doing all the good as is demanded by my own heart, and cleansing of my mind,  than how much more so would it be hard for my neighbors, my shroomerites, and the rest of the world?

We need , and I will be more more conscientious of m thoughts, and speech, and actions- using compassion, patience, and equanimity , our inherent powers, for good during my brief transit here on earth, to stay the path no matter how long it seems to be.

Now more than ever, yet as always, is the classical ideals and life of goodness of the Christian saint, and Buddhist bodhisattva needed.

A noble life, or a life beset by our own worst parts of our nature made manifest.  You choose, I’ll go with the former, and I’ll wake, live, and sleep with peace of heart.


--------------------
Give me Liberty caps -or- give me Death caps


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Invisibledbreeze
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Re: End of Empire [Re: The Blind Ass]
    #26568510 - 03/31/20 06:46 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

The economy i think is taking a huge hit and it will get worse. But its not going to be the end of America. it just aint cause at the end of the day most Americans are proud of their country and will come together and build things back up. People will be hurting and the govt. probilly wont be able to get everyone back to work right away but people arent going to give up on America for this. I am one that sees positives and negitives on the whole system but if you asked me i am proud of america mostly because of the everyday average person. Americans will come togather after this is all over. some things will change yes some things wont. Personally there are things in the system that i dont like but honestly i dont know how things could change fairly quickly without having lots of destruction and thats the LAST thing i want is more destruction after this is over. and like i said the PEOPLE will come togather and build things back up....i am one that agrees back to normal as quick as possible is the best thing to hope for cause this situation SUCKS! the system will still be there all though there will be some changes but at the end of the day the people running the system wether you like it or not are symbols of the country. Maybe not here but i think most americans would agree on that and will fight and do what ever to keep the country running


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Invisibleredgreenvines
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Re: End of Empire [Re: dbreeze] * 2
    #26568900 - 03/31/20 11:38 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

maybe the economy will turn into a different form of economy.

i.e. the money valuation will stop being a bottom line but will become a curve that can be used in conjunction with other socially worthy curves such as environmental impact, emotional impact, healthful impact, creative impact etc.

Using ai we should be able to map these kinds of contributions and blend them with traditional wealth curves to generate a more meaningful eco-ciety.


--------------------
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OfflineAZZI
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Re: End of Empire [Re: redgreenvines]
    #26568973 - 03/31/20 12:05 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

redgreenvines said:
maybe the economy will turn into a different form of economy.

i.e. the money valuation will stop being a bottom line but will become a curve that can be used in conjunction with other socially worthy curves such as environmental impact, emotional impact, healthful impact, creative impact etc.

Using ai we should be able to map these kinds of contributions and blend them with traditional wealth curves to generate a more meaningful eco-ciety.




Well said. "There are no problems, only solutions." As it is said.

One way to look shows all black, but that is a mental disease infinitely worse than any virus. That view is concomitant with other negative views (such as heaping negativity towards anyone talking about depression), or equal defeatest views.
I.e. such a blackened view will say such pessimism any time and place. Rendering them worthless from any logical point of view. As mentioned, a far worse disease.

When the sunlight of reality is seen, strengths and weaknesses are equally clear. Positive qualities are clear, and places needing strengthening are clear. Neither is seen improperly, and thus action is made effective. I.e. anything weakness is built up properly.

If the self is never transcended, if love is never perceived, then clarity will never be possible.


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🌸🌸🌸


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InvisibleRahz
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Re: End of Empire [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #26569236 - 03/31/20 02:21 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

redgreenvines said:
maybe the economy will turn into a different form of economy.

i.e. the money valuation will stop being a bottom line but will become a curve that can be used in conjunction with other socially worthy curves such as environmental impact, emotional impact, healthful impact, creative impact etc.

Using ai we should be able to map these kinds of contributions and blend them with traditional wealth curves to generate a more meaningful eco-ciety.




Seems like wishful thinking. Those things are more likely to be considered when life is good.

Quote:

DividedQuantum said:
Well you make good points Rahz. But I would say that the economy is taking a huge hit, which will have lasting effects. After all, Trump wouldn't be so obsessed with getting everyone back to work if he weren't taking a huge hit himself. Obviously, we see this in the huge overall losses in the stock market. But what that means of course is that money has ceased to flow, and that has happened because tens of millions have put their work on hold (many of whom have already been laid off). So, while millions of essential workers are still working, in a major way huge sectors of the economy are just frozen.

And such a hit will not simply be erased when the crisis is over. It will lead to a slowdown, which will lead to a recession, very probably a global one. With luck it will not be a full-blown depression, but as I have said it's still early, and who knows what will happen over the next months. In any case, I have seen many experts saying there could well be an unemployment rate in the U.S. of 20-25% when all is said and done, and that is a gigantic problem for the people and for the economy, for all of society. Whatever happens, it seems clear there will be very long-lasting changes as a result of this, if not many permanent ones.

So, for me, what has already happened by today is a major blow to the economy. As I have said before, we are still only in the early stages of this. So clearly, the economic picture grows more dire by the day. Notwithstanding the virus itself, I think global markets are descending into a big problem for the whole planet.




Some states have already ordered the lockdown in place til mid May. Things like that are starting to lean my opinion towards a breakdown. The CDC is "seriously considering" telling people to wear masks now. It was only a week ago they were telling people they weren't necessary! I mentioned last week the 6 foot rule indoors wasn't sufficient and now there's an MIT study suggesting the proper safe distance is 26 feet. They kind of contradict themselves when they state in the next breath that the virus can stay in the air for hours. It's capable of traveling a lot more than 26 feet if that's the case. We need a couple billion masks distributed ASAP and need to get people back to work ASAP or the major blow you're talking about will seem like small potatoes. There's still time to iron this out, but politics and bleeding hearts and fear seem to be ruling the day.


--------------------
rahz

comfort pleasure power love truth awareness peace


"You’re not looking close enough if you can only see yourself in people who look like you." —Ayishat Akanbi


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InvisibleDividedQuantumM
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Re: End of Empire [Re: Rahz]
    #26569305 - 03/31/20 02:47 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Yeah, things aren't looking good. I had heard about the potential mask requirement -- I guess it's gotten beyond merely a recommendation at this point. Which begs the question: How is everyone going to get masks? And if you don't have one, can you really not go out in public, period? It seems an impossible requirement. If I need groceries, but have had no way of getting a mask, what do I do?


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Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici


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Invisiblelaughingdog
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Re: End of Empire [Re: Rahz]
    #26569382 - 03/31/20 03:24 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Rahz said:


....I mentioned last week the 6 foot rule indoors wasn't sufficient and now there's an MIT study suggesting the proper safe distance is 26 feet. They kind of contradict themselves when they state in the next breath that the virus can stay in the air for hours. It's capable of traveling a lot more than 26 feet if that's the case. We need a couple billion masks distributed ASAP and need to get people back to work ASAP or the major blow you're talking about will seem like small potatoes. There's still time to iron this out, but politics and bleeding hearts and fear seem to be ruling the day.




.  And the distance assumes the air is still -- often not the case--especially outside ...

.  There is much that is still being avoided, in public discourse ... (as I'm a boomer and was about 20 around 1966 at the hight of the 60s ... I am now at an age, where death would no longer be an unexpected event in any case). Perhaps this reduces anxiety, although death from Covid-19 is rather unpleasant.

.  What is being avoided in public discourse is that as I stated above: " It is possible we enter some sort of dark ages. It depends on how much technology gets shut down, especially those that are very hard to start up again. Or even impossible to start up again." Especially very high tek stuff.

.  Of course many preppers would not be shocked by this possibility, and probably not some others, who remember the 60s.

.  Without more testing & some idea of whats going on in Africa & Russia & Sweden (no lockdown),  & India ;  and other wild cards such as hospital overload & number qualified health care workers; and lack of sufficient ventilators and many stupid governments (including the one in the USA) - all add up to making accurate prediction impossible.

However in the event that:
....Much technology gets shut down, especially those that are very hard to start up again. Or even impossible to start up again.....This is on another level than just economic depression. ... When new computers and chips are no longer designed and built, and so on, then the foundations of what we have come to consider civilization, will be very vulnerable ...  We cannot evaluate how likely this is ... but to think it can't happen seems, (to me) like the same optimistic folly that contributed to the current situation.

.    What is predictable, is further hardship, death, & grief, world wide.
The only silver lining is less pollution & perhaps less climate change.
As to what happens to the birth rate, with "shelter in place"... who knows? And what shape the hospitals will be in, in 9 to 12 months....who knows?


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Invisibleredgreenvines
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Re: End of Empire [Re: laughingdog] * 1
    #26569469 - 03/31/20 04:07 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

this is how anyone can have a great mask now

you can add as many layers as you like


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InvisibleDividedQuantumM
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Re: End of Empire [Re: laughingdog]
    #26569589 - 03/31/20 05:15 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Excellent points, laughingdog. The only thing I would add is regarding the testing: the official numbers we see right now correspond to our current testing capability. In the U.S. it is woefully inadequate. Thousands of people that the medical community wants to test, or feels should be tested, are not getting tested. How many multiples of the reported cases are the actual cases? Three? Four?


--------------------
Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici


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OfflineAZZI
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Re: End of Empire [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #26569598 - 03/31/20 05:21 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

DividedQuantum said:
Excellent points, laughingdog. The only thing I would add is regarding the testing: the official numbers we see right now correspond to our current testing capability. In the U.S. it is woefully inadequate. Thousands of people that the medical community wants to test, or feels should be tested, are not getting tested. How many multiples of the reported cases are the actual cases? Three? Four?





Hell no.

A lot more than that. I want to say hundreds but I'm too lazy to fact check it a.t.m.


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OfflineAZZI
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Re: End of Empire [Re: AZZI]
    #26569603 - 03/31/20 05:23 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)



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