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Offlinespirit_shadow
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: koods]
    #26563879 - 03/28/20 06:13 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:




Oh wow thank you. Where did you find that?


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: spirit_shadow] * 1
    #26563883 - 03/28/20 06:14 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)



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Offlinespirit_shadow
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: morrowasted]
    #26563889 - 03/28/20 06:17 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Oh cool thank you too :shroomeryhead:


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: spirit_shadow] * 1
    #26563895 - 03/28/20 06:20 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

If we don’t have a total nationwide lockdown now healthcare systems will collapse in the entire country. Why the fuck doesn’t trump get this.


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: koods] * 1
    #26563898 - 03/28/20 06:22 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
If we don’t have a total nationwide lockdown now healthcare systems will collapse in the entire country. Why the fuck doesn’t trump get this.



eventually we'll just have to start sending people who are satting under 90 out on ice floes with candles




sorry. gallows humor is our last resort coping mechanism


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InvisibleTantrika
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: Asante] * 1
    #26563901 - 03/28/20 06:23 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
You have 5.5x the residenta and Italy hasnt peaked yet.

It all seemed very academic in Holland too but tomorrow we cross the 10,000 while being 1/4 the size of Italy.




The thing that confuses me about Europe
is a lack of comprehension of whether you guys have a lot of the suburbia + city housing that North America has
or whether all your residential areas are packed super tightly together like pictures
dunno, it seems like Europe is having a disproportionate rate of spread due to close quarters everywhere making "true" isolation more difficult

the US (maybe not places like NYC) 'should' almost have an easier time inhibiting spread in my eyes
because there is so much more sprawl and space-per-person to mid-sized cities


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: Asante] * 1
    #26563907 - 03/28/20 06:26 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

We might have the scenario that 60% of the population gets it.

For the US thats like 200 million people.

Those 200 million people are going to end up inbetween South Korea (2.7 megadeath) and Italy (20 megadeath)

Its likely -not- going to be South Korea because their medical system wasnt as overwhelmed with total patients in the thousands as the US will be with total patients in the millions.

This is the scale if its up to the virus.

If its up to us, we can seek to depress that number as much as possible until the Summer 2021 vaccine comes or, Deus Ex Machina, some old drug somewhere snuffs it out that we can mass produce.

But if its up to the virus the US will get 200-300 million cases. Its that kinda virus.

All we can shave off of that is mercy.


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: Tantrika] * 1
    #26563910 - 03/28/20 06:28 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Americans travel more by land and air - your fuel is subsidized to stimulate this exact thing as more travel = more economomic activity = more profit.

It also means, more spread.

Americans are clustered in towns and cities too.


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: Asante]
    #26563911 - 03/28/20 06:29 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Does this drug from Gilead actually work?


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: Tantrika] * 2
    #26563912 - 03/28/20 06:29 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)


Quote:

Asante said:

the US (maybe not places like NYC) 'should' almost have an easier time inhibiting spread in my eyes
because there is so much more sprawl and space-per-person to mid-sized cities



bingo


new york is 302 square miles, pop 8.4 million

houston is 637 square miles, pop 2.3 million

italy is 116k square miles, pop 60.5million

USA is 9.8 million square miles, pop 330million

also PUBLIC. TRANSPORTATION.


I expect to see a lot of persistent regional variation in infection rates through the USA


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: morrowasted]
    #26563922 - 03/28/20 06:33 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

The counter point to that is rural areas have almost zero intensive care capabilities


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: koods] * 1
    #26563923 - 03/28/20 06:33 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Does this drug from Gilead actually work?



All I can tell you is that remdesivir was in such high demand despite not having finished clinical trials that Gilead had to withdraw status for Orphan Drug status to avoid having a mob with pitchforks show up at the board meeting, and that my former classmate whose parents are doctors told him they are using remdesivir in their hospital system with no mortality thus far.

It will be really nice when the clinical trial results are published but my guess is that it will turn out to be quite effective.

It tricks the viral ssRNA into binding to it instead of the cellular RNA polymerase/mRNA which should prevent it from replicating altogether


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: morrowasted]
    #26563924 - 03/28/20 06:34 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

There should be results by now if it was clearly effective. You don’t continue clinical trials if a drug is obviously effective. It is unethical to have a control group at that point.


Edited by koods (03/28/20 06:36 PM)


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: koods]
    #26563928 - 03/28/20 06:36 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

It looks like it was designed on LSD, and this to be Ebola specific.

I *HOPE* that Chloroquine is more effective because the Gilead drug is very fancy to synthesize in quantity, and (OH)Chloroquine almost as plain as a food additive.

Chloroquines are drugs an oldfasioned 5 man chemical company could synthesize in quantity.

About that bygone era, that still exists in the Chinese RC trade:

Excuse me Sir, would you like to buy a kilo of isopropyl bromide?


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InvisibleTantrika
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: Asante]
    #26563933 - 03/28/20 06:38 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
Americans travel more by land and air - your fuel is subsidized to stimulate this exact thing as more travel = more economomic activity = more profit.

It also means, more spread.

Americans are clustered in towns and cities too.




yeah, and made a point of indicating that places like NYC are a lot more stacked up

but guess my point is more a question of
do small-town areas actually all look like this:


because Winnipeg is a city with an International airport and trade, the capital city and most densely populated of my province
but most housing looks like this:






with the yards/space between housing becoming larger the further from the city center into suburbia you go

this is not to say that the city isn't building up tall condo buildings and appartments downtown
but most of the housing in the city isn't actually like that

tho this does also result in a lot more of the driving culture you reference
if you work downtown it is almost impossible to find reasonable housing downtown; and the public transit system sucks so people commute by car
typically without carpool as it is not average to have workers in downtown offices live in the same areas of the city


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: Asante] * 4
    #26563952 - 03/28/20 06:49 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I think this is fascinating.

Big brother contestants learning about covid-19 for the first time and being updated.

This is bullshit reality TV but it's still interesting to see people isolated from the world learn about how crazy things can get so quickly.





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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: Tantrika] * 2
    #26563955 - 03/28/20 06:52 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I live in a Dutch street from before the War (WW2). My whole side of the street is one building with one roof, compartimentalized into a series of homes. A beautiful street, might I say! Several colors bricks used, portico's, bay windows, we used to have stained glass sun catchers..

Thats a style you see all over Holland, neighborhoods built as one instead of separate houses.

Rijtjeshuizen. "row houses".

All that matters is the 2 meters/7ft social distancing though.


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OfflineDarwin23
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: LogicaL Chaos] * 3
    #26563963 - 03/28/20 06:57 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

LogicaL Chaos said:
Will the US be like 2x Italy? Or maybe even 10x Italy? :omgz:




I estimate we'll get things under control with around 50,000 deaths. We're responding much slower and softer than Italy has so we can't expect to see a big drop off in our numbers. Some hospitals in NYC are already beyond capacity (chose who dies scenarios) and we're on the foothills of this great mountain.

That being said, I really don't see a worst-case scenario playing out. For as dumb as Trump talks, he's actually doing the right things behind closed doors (went on Fox and insisted hospitals didn't need more breathing machines. Hours later he ordered GM to begin producing ventilators). He acts much more dumb than he is.


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InvisibleTantrika
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: Asante]
    #26563966 - 03/28/20 07:01 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
I live in a Dutch street from before the War (WW2). My whole side of the street is one building with one roof, compartimentalized into a series of homes. A beautiful street, might I say! Several colors bricks used, portico's, bay windows, we used to have stained glass sun catchers..

Thats a style you see all over Holland, neighborhoods built as one instead of separate houses.

Rijtjeshuizen. "row houses".

All that matters is the 2 meters/7ft social distancing though.




That still sounds to me as more difficult to isolate in
am guessing in normal circumstances you and your neighbours typically step out right onto the street
possibly carrying a bike out your front door?

my paranoia, and it could be solely that, convinces me that people walking in and out of houses near each other
potentially leave enough of a lingering of the disease to spread it

whereas in neighbourhoods here
people can frequently walk a direct path between their door to their car
without crossing in front of a neighbours doorway or anything

in NYC it also makes more sense for lots of spread because people are walking up and down shared enclosed hallways,
opening shared doors to appartment buildings, taking shared stairways with shared handrails

so am kind of imagining much of European residential areas as sort of a middle ground between the locked up surfaces of NYC
and the constant wide berth that the housing and travel style results in in Winnipegish suburbia

as another "for instance"
have someone drive me to the grocery store to pick up groceries
go from there to the car to back home
so, aside from whoever drives me, the only real "at risk" period in my journey is while in the store
instead of having to risk carrying my bags along the subway and bus lines like when living in Montréal
or walking past all my neighbours front porches on the way to the grocery and back when having one in my neighbourhood


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InvisibleTexas Honey BadgerM
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Unreal Numbers [Re: Asante] * 1
    #26563967 - 03/28/20 07:01 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

We just got 1 confirmed case in my county out here in west tx:picard:


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