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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26563369 - 03/28/20 02:28 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

What kind of function generates that graph. A polynomial function or an exponential one.

I don't see an exponent in the polynomial function
X=N+N*0.25

It's not a linear graph, that's true. it's growth not exponential. You gave me a polynomial function, you generated the graph with the same function. Your line is cool but you cant draw the same curve with an exponential function. If you can give me the function that contains an exponent let me know.


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563381 - 03/28/20 02:33 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Subexponential growth ie polynomial growth (koods formula) does characterise pandemics though.


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563383 - 03/28/20 02:33 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)



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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Hunter hunter]
    #26563386 - 03/28/20 02:36 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

https://publichealth.harriscountytx.gov/Resources/2019-Novel-Coronavirus/Harris-County-COVID-19-Confirmed-Cases

I wish I could remember the exact numbers but they update this at 3pm daily I believe 2 days ago it was 135 and the day before 117. I don't remember if I checked yesterday.


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563394 - 03/28/20 02:40 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

bodhisatta said:
Subexponential growth ie polynomial growth (koods formula) does characterise pandemics though.




No it’s pure exponential growth. You start with a number and the next iteration increases by that number times the growth factor...





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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


Edited by koods (03/28/20 02:51 PM)


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Crazy_Horse]
    #26563397 - 03/28/20 02:42 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Crazy_Horse said:
https://mathbitsnotebook.com/Algebra2/Exponential/EXGrowthDecay.html



Isn't it curious how all those examples have exponents


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563399 - 03/28/20 02:43 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)



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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods] * 1
    #26563401 - 03/28/20 02:44 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

A growth factor of .25 means for every four infected people one new person will get infected per day


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods] * 4
    #26563402 - 03/28/20 02:45 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)



t=days
r=.25
a=100 in this example

100
125
156.25
195.3125
244.14
...

same numbers as koods.


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563405 - 03/28/20 02:48 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth.We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible–infectious–removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease,
HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential
growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The generalized-growth concept also provides us a compelling argument for the unexpected extinction of certain emerging disease outbreaks during the early ascending phase. Overall, our approach promotes a more reliable and data-driven characterization of the early epidemic phase, which is important for accurate estimation of the reproduction number and prediction of disease impact.





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InvisibleHunter hunter
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26563408 - 03/28/20 02:48 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

trees said:
What if they tried to start dosing us with tiny quantities of the virus, not enough to cause severe infection, just enough for our immune system to recognize it and work on antibodies. I wonder if that's possible





Well if you have a sample of the virus and some chickens.  You could inoculate a fertilized chicken egg let it incubate for awhile and drink the serum.  Some drs would take a syringe pull the puss from an aids infected person’s boil and inject that into themselves. 

  It’s all about building immunities.  Hiding from nature in a glass bubble is much worse than being in nature.
Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

bodhisatta said:
Subexponential growth ie polynomial growth (koods formula) does characterise pandemics though.




No it’s pure exponential growth. You start with a number and the next iteration is that number times the growth factor...









That’s cool.  In statistics a graph not properly labeled really doesn’t show anything.  I like you are taking the time to attempt this.  It’s been years since I worked with statistics and would take me a minute.  You’ll need a random sample first off.  We are only testing sick people.  So that screws the numbers.  Also it would be cool to actually have the time line written out clearly as well as the cases. 


What is your formula?  F(x)=MX+B. I think that would graph the line it’s been so long. 


I gotta go fix the headgasket on my tiller.  Going to actually do something for myself neighbors and family.  Gathered all my seeds, ammo, crawdad, crab traps etc..  gotta find my snares and traps.  If this shit is exponential then we are fucked.  What is exponential?  Are these deaths?  Are these cases?


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    Eat the meat that’s at your feet.


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563414 - 03/28/20 02:51 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

You can probably manipulate koods' formula to match using maths.


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Crazy_Horse]
    #26563415 - 03/28/20 02:51 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Crazy_Horse said:


t=days
r=.25
a=100 in this example

100
125
156.25
195.3125
244.14
...

same numbers as koods.



That's like the compound interest equation which is subexponential growth to anyone past highschool math. Polynomial time in computer science


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InvisibleCrazy_Horse
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563417 - 03/28/20 02:53 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

It says exponential growth on the picture.


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Crazy_Horse]
    #26563420 - 03/28/20 02:55 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)



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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Crazy_Horse]
    #26563425 - 03/28/20 02:58 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Ok fair enough subexponential growth is a type of exponential growth. But if you put 10,000 in the bank let me know when you're a millionaire because of that exponential growth you get from your interest rate :rofl:


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Crazy_Horse]
    #26563427 - 03/28/20 02:59 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Crazy_Horse said:


t=days
r=.25
a=100 in this example

100
125
156.25
195.3125
244.14
...

same numbers as koods.



do you know how r value here relate to the r0 value in epidemiology?


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted] * 1
    #26563431 - 03/28/20 03:01 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

from the last link I posted.



In which:
x(t) is the number of cases at any given time t
x0 is the number of cases at the beginning, also called initial value
b is the number of people infected by each sick person, the growth factor

Growth factor in this example = 4


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26563439 - 03/28/20 03:05 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Crazy_Horse said:


t=days
r=.25
a=100 in this example

100
125
156.25
195.3125
244.14
...

same numbers as koods.



Quote:

morrowasted said:
Quote:

Crazy_Horse said:


t=days
r=.25
a=100 in this example

100
125
156.25
195.3125
244.14
...

same numbers as koods.



do you know how r value here relate to the r0 value in epidemiology?




I don’t think you can calculate one
From the other. They are related but R0 doesn’t take into account timeframes


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta] * 1
    #26563442 - 03/28/20 03:06 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Cases x rate^days

Cases is your start point
Rate is the change (day on day)
Days is the exponent

So start with 100 cases, growing at 25% day on day, expected result at 30 days =

100 x 1.25^30 = 80 779 cases at 30 days

25% day on day growth is exponential, and leads to a doubling of cases every 3 days


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