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christopera
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: MycoBrainz]
#26546116 - 03/20/20 08:35 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Refinance? My day job shut down yesterday. There goes about 50% of my pay. I'm gearing up to expand my machine shop sales, but as capital trickles for many I expect my sales to slow as well. Let's hope I can get through this and keep my home. I have about $25k in savings, but really hope it doesn't get to a point where I have to use that. Refinancing my 2.8% loan isn't really on the radar at this point.
-------------------- Enjoy the process of your search without succumbing to the pressure of the result. A Dorito is pizza, change my mind. Bank and Union with The Shroomery at the Zuul on The internet - now with %'s and things I’m sorry it had to be me.
Edited by christopera (03/20/20 08:37 AM)
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Kryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: feldman114]
#26546117 - 03/20/20 08:36 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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There's a smarter way to make those cuts.
It's an extension of Starve the Beast strategy--and relies on a recession.
You need to keep giving out money and tax cuts and then leave office, so that the next guy gets blamed for either (a) cuts to social safety or (b) presiding over a default.
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meltdowner
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
#26551988 - 03/22/20 10:23 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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In this case the next guy is Trump.
-------------------- I'm a Lightweight. I like to eat like two caps at a time.
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MycoBrainz
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: meltdowner]
#26553461 - 03/23/20 04:36 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Sure isn't gonna be the Pedophiliac Democratic Nominee. I just wanna see all politicians die from covid19.
--------------------
PFC x Creeper Lets Get Stoned
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meltdowner
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: MycoBrainz]
#26553941 - 03/23/20 08:31 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
MycoBrainz said: Sure isn't gonna be the Pedophiliac Democratic Nominee. I just wanna see all politicians die from covid19.
I think mass boomer extinction is going to drop property values like mad. That will make millenials happier than anything else... i knownit would me.
-------------------- I'm a Lightweight. I like to eat like two caps at a time.
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: meltdowner]
#26553945 - 03/23/20 08:33 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
meltdowner said:
Quote:
MycoBrainz said: Sure isn't gonna be the Pedophiliac Democratic Nominee. I just wanna see all politicians die from covid19.
I think mass boomer extinction is going to drop property values like mad. That will make millenials happier than anything else... i knownit would me.
Quote:
meltdowner said: In this case the next guy is Trump.
Mass boomer extinction isn’t good for trump
--------------------
NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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meltdowner
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: koods]
#26553950 - 03/23/20 08:36 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Thats OK.
-------------------- I'm a Lightweight. I like to eat like two caps at a time.
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Brian Jones
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: meltdowner]
#26554580 - 03/24/20 07:32 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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You've got some waiting to do. I'm 62 and my current life expectancy is over 20 years. There are 7 years of baby boomers younger than me.
But I do like your pragmatism.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Kryptos
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Quote:
Brian Jones said: You've got some waiting to do. I'm 62 and my current life expectancy is over 20 years. There are 7 years of baby boomers younger than me.
But I do like your pragmatism.
That's really not how life expectancy works. Life expectancy is only a useful measurement at birth. The longer you live, the higher your life expectancy. Statistically, you are extremely unlikely to die between the ages of 104 and 105, and your life expectancy will, as of right now, become infinite as soon as you age past 122 and ~164 days.
Ya know, because so few people ever get there.
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meltdowner
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
#26556037 - 03/24/20 09:50 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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.... i think its clear the point he was trying to make....
My parents are boomers and i dont want to see them dead so my original comment was sort of a sick, twisted joke. Seriously would improve the housing prices, though.
-------------------- I'm a Lightweight. I like to eat like two caps at a time.
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Kryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: meltdowner]
#26556461 - 03/25/20 07:24 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Elections have consequences.
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Brian Jones
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos] 1
#26556758 - 03/25/20 10:12 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Kryptos said:
Quote:
Brian Jones said: You've got some waiting to do. I'm 62 and my current life expectancy is over 20 years. There are 7 years of baby boomers younger than me.
But I do like your pragmatism.
That's really not how life expectancy works. Life expectancy is only a useful measurement at birth. The longer you live, the higher your life expectancy. Statistically, you are extremely unlikely to die between the ages of 104 and 105, and your life expectancy will, as of right now, become infinite as soon as you age past 122 and ~164 days.
Ya know, because so few people ever get there.
That's exactly how life expectancy works. There is a life expectancy for every age. Life expectancy at birth is just the one you hear about the most. Of course the longer you live, the higher your life expectancy. When you reach the age of one it goes up because the first year is the most deadly. Males also have relatively high death rates in their late teens and early twenties.
There is no difference in the predictive validity of life expectancy at birth or life expectancy at other ages.
I'm not sure what you're trying to say in the last sentence.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Kryptos
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My point was that life expectancy becomes less and less useful as a metric the older you are. The older you are, the fewer data points there are for comparison, which necessarily increases standard deviation as n goes down.
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Brian Jones
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
#26558558 - 03/26/20 08:01 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I disagree completely. The N is still plenty high to not raise the standard deviation perceptively.
How much expected variance is there in predicting life expectancy at birth vs predicting a 60 year old is going to live twenty more years. When N is sufficiently high, variance is the main issue in statistical forecasting.
I still don't understand the comment you made about people over 100, but I am confident that life expectancy at 60 is at least as accurate as life expectancy at birth.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Kryptos
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Quote:
Brian Jones said: I disagree completely. The N is still plenty high to not raise the standard deviation perceptively.
How much expected variance is there in predicting life expectancy at birth vs predicting a 60 year old is going to live twenty more years. When N is sufficiently high, variance is the main issue in statistical forecasting.
I still don't understand the comment you made about people over 100, but I am confident that life expectancy at 60 is at least as accurate as life expectancy at birth.
Maybe I'm being pedantic, but what you are saying is mathematically impossible.
Varience and SD are directly related, as Var = SD^2
N may be "sufficiently high" to predict life expectancy for a current 60 year old, but it is lower than N for life expectancy at birth. This means that life expectancy at any age past birth is inherently less accurate.
And my comment about centenarians serves only to illustrate this fact. The life expectancy of someone that's 100+ is basically a random guess. Very few people die at 100+. The life expectancy of someone that is older that 122.5 years old explodes to infinity, from a mathematical standpoint.
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Falcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos] 2
#26559314 - 03/26/20 02:53 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Kryptos said:
Quote:
Brian Jones said: I disagree completely. The N is still plenty high to not raise the standard deviation perceptively.
How much expected variance is there in predicting life expectancy at birth vs predicting a 60 year old is going to live twenty more years. When N is sufficiently high, variance is the main issue in statistical forecasting.
I still don't understand the comment you made about people over 100, but I am confident that life expectancy at 60 is at least as accurate as life expectancy at birth.
Maybe I'm being pedantic, but what you are saying is mathematically impossible.
Varience and SD are directly related, as Var = SD^2
N may be "sufficiently high" to predict life expectancy for a current 60 year old, but it is lower than N for life expectancy at birth. This means that life expectancy at any age past birth is inherently less accurate.
No, there is far more variance in the number of years someone will live when they are first born than the number of years someone will live if they are already 110.
Quote:
Kryptos said: And my comment about centenarians serves only to illustrate this fact. The life expectancy of someone that's 100 is basically a random guess. Very few people die at 100 . The life expectancy of someone that is older that 122.5 years old explodes to infinity, from a mathematical standpoint.
To show this is incorrect, let's just use a simple intuitive example:
If someone turns 122.5, I'll bet on their age at death, while you bet on a newborn's age at death.
I would bet they'll die at 122, you would likely bet they'll die at the either the mean, the median or (most likely) the mode for life expectancy.
I think it's intuitively obvious I'll probably come much closer to being right than you.
Let me know if you want to get into the math.
-------------------- I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them. I also attack my side if I think they're wrong. People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.
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Kryptos
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Quote:
Falcon91Wolvrn03 said: Let me know if you want to get into the math.
Okay. Using math, show me evidence that someone is capable of dying after the age of 122 and a half.
I'll wait.
The answer is, we don't know if someone older than 122.5 can die, because nobody has ever lived that long. Therefore, their life expectancy is infinite. Because life expectancy depends on how long people of that age live.
Of course, logically, someone can die after the age of 122.5, but there is no evidence to support that logic.
EDIT: At the risk of sounding like I'm discriminating, I won't accept biblical evidence.
Edited by Kryptos (03/26/20 03:54 PM)
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koods
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
#26559426 - 03/26/20 03:49 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Someone who lives that long is probably immortal
--------------------
NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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Kryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: koods]
#26559433 - 03/26/20 03:51 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Statistically, the oldest person in history is immortal, until the day they die.
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feldman114
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
#26559464 - 03/26/20 04:04 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I dun get it. How can someone be statistically immortal or mortal?
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