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InvisibleShroomerInTheRye
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Registered: 01/12/12
Posts: 13,037
Loc: Themyscira Flag
Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26558803 - 03/26/20 10:05 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

What evidence are you using to back that claim up?


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Offlinespirit_shadow
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Registered: 08/15/11
Posts: 25,996
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26558813 - 03/26/20 10:10 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Let’s be clear here: if you were sick over a month  ago and you don’t live in the Nee York area and hadn’t travelled the chances that you had covid is nearly zero



What about o'hare in chicago? I've seen lots of Asian people coming and going there.


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InvisibleSimisu
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Posts: 5,435
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Asante] * 1
    #26558814 - 03/26/20 10:10 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
I think I may have had a mild case too.

Started with s classic cold, lasted 5 weeks.

I -SO-hope it was that, because I'd have immunity now if is was.




me too... it's been three weeks now and i still cant smell anything :crankey:

i'm in barcelona and it looks like it's going to be one of the epicentres :shrug:

i do think it's possible that its been going around unnoticed as the symptoms were really mild and slow to appear!


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InvisibleShroomerInTheRye
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Registered: 01/12/12
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26558824 - 03/26/20 10:13 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

A 35 year old man returned to Washington State from Wuhan in mid January. He visited his grandma in a nursing home. That outbreak started there and it’s been raging in the Northwest for a while. A reporter who covered that story ended up contracting coronavirus. She didn’t go to New York or travel to China.  By your logic, she shouldn’t have tested positive but she did.


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InvisiblefeeversM
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Registered: 12/28/10
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: ShroomerInTheRye]
    #26558843 - 03/26/20 10:19 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

My 30 year old cousin has pneumonia and went to the ER yesterday, she couldn't get tested. She has literally all the symptoms of a moderate/severe case, but hasn't traveled so no test. The numbers must be way off, this was in Boston


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Asante]
    #26558848 - 03/26/20 10:22 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:




Meanwhile in Holland :sad:



Tuesday 382 (March 10, 2020)
Wednesday: 503 (+121)
Thursday: 614 (+111)
Friday: 804 (+190)
Saturday: 959 (+155)
Sunday: 1135 (+176)
Monday: 1413 (+287)(March 16)
Tuesday: 1708 (+295)
Wednesday: 2051 (+343)
Thursday 2460 (+409)
Friday 2994 (+534)
Saturday 3631 (+637)
Sunday 4202 (+571)
Monday 4749 (+547)(March 23)
Tuesday 5560 (+811)
Wednesday 6412 (+852)
Thursday 7431 (+1019)


Today's the first day of +1000 documented cases in my tiny country. We're now at the level Italy was at not too long ago when everybgody lamented Italy. But, the number of 4 digit countries is increasing and the number of 5 digit countries is increasing too.

TODAY THE WORLD GOES OVER 500,000 CASES.




You guys seem to be sitting around 1.15 multiplier.  This is an improvement.  You were showing 1.3 and even 1.5 last week. 
keep up the distancing and you might be down to 1.0 in a week or 2


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: ShroomerInTheRye]
    #26558857 - 03/26/20 10:26 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

ShroomerInTheRye said:
What evidence are you using to back that claim up?




The fact that a month ago there were a couple dozen cases


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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OfflineSamskara92
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Registered: 08/29/19
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods] * 1
    #26558866 - 03/26/20 10:33 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

More active cases in the US than Italy


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OfflineHerbologist
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Samskara92]
    #26558869 - 03/26/20 10:34 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Are we testing more than Italy, though?


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Invisiblecannabinated
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Registered: 01/03/13
Posts: 14,743
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Samskara92]
    #26558871 - 03/26/20 10:34 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

its in my grandmas nursing home


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: cannabinated]
    #26558886 - 03/26/20 10:39 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I'm sorry to hear that, my man.  Good luck to her.


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Invisiblekoraks
Registered: 06/02/03
Posts: 26,689
Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26558896 - 03/26/20 10:41 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

ballsalsa said:
Quote:

Asante said:




Meanwhile in Holland :sad:



Tuesday 382 (March 10, 2020)
Wednesday: 503 (+121)
Thursday: 614 (+111)
Friday: 804 (+190)
Saturday: 959 (+155)
Sunday: 1135 (+176)
Monday: 1413 (+287)(March 16)
Tuesday: 1708 (+295)
Wednesday: 2051 (+343)
Thursday 2460 (+409)
Friday 2994 (+534)
Saturday 3631 (+637)
Sunday 4202 (+571)
Monday 4749 (+547)(March 23)
Tuesday 5560 (+811)
Wednesday 6412 (+852)
Thursday 7431 (+1019)


Today's the first day of +1000 documented cases in my tiny country. We're now at the level Italy was at not too long ago when everybgody lamented Italy. But, the number of 4 digit countries is increasing and the number of 5 digit countries is increasing too.

TODAY THE WORLD GOES OVER 500,000 CASES.





You guys seem to be sitting around 1.15 multiplier.  This is an improvement.  You were showing 1.3 and even 1.5 last week. 
keep up the distancing and you might be down to 1.0 in a week or 2



The responsible agency for monitoring the outbreak estimates the current R0 already as around 1. The case numbers are deceptive due to the testing regime and the hospital admissions + deaths are deceptive due to the delay. There's some very cautious (!) optimism. Still, the peak in ICU patients is only expected by the end of May even in the best case scenario due to the long stay at the ICU and the fact that new admissions will continue.


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InvisibleGuy1980
Registered: 09/11/12
Posts: 723
Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Herbologist]
    #26558909 - 03/26/20 10:45 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)



Testing is a bit of an unreliable metric, but I think deaths is more useful.  The above is the USA (before today's data).  Bear in mind there's quite a lag between contracting the virus and death. 

This is not going to fix itself.


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InvisibleShroomerInTheRye
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Registered: 01/12/12
Posts: 13,037
Loc: Themyscira Flag
Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26558911 - 03/26/20 10:45 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

You do realize that testing wasn’t ramped up until recently, right?  Those few dozen were confirmed but unless you were some basketball guy or someone famous they wouldn’t test you.


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Invisiblepirate-blues
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koraks] * 2
    #26558919 - 03/26/20 10:48 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Fuck. My SIL's dad tested positive. Poor guy was hospitalized some years back for a torn lung. It was over a decade ago, so I'm hoping that means he's been completely healed for quite a while and it doesn't up his risk factor too significantly.


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Registered: 03/11/15
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Loc: Foreign Lands
Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Guy1980] * 3
    #26558920 - 03/26/20 10:48 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

20-24 day lag between infection and (possible) death.  deaths is the most useful number to track as long as CFR stays constant.  If it jumps due to lack of healthcare resources, it becomes less useful.


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OfflineRJ Tubs 202
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Registered: 09/20/08
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: doctorghosty] * 3
    #26558934 - 03/26/20 10:54 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

doctorghosty said:

I feel more dread today than I have during this whole thing so far. And i've been feeling a lot of dread...




It's an interesting experience - helping to understand the nature of stressing and depressing and getting stuck in the doldrums. I have a suspicion I'm cultivating it by watching the media cacophony.


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InvisibleTantrika
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Posts: 17,138
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: HamHead] * 1
    #26558941 - 03/26/20 10:59 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)



Manitoba government has revealed severe lag in testing
as of the start of this week (and possibly still now) they were still only authorizing tests on people who have recently travelled
we could have all sorts of community cases incubating and/or being treated as generic flu
suspect our numbers will balloon when testing expands


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Herbologist]
    #26558945 - 03/26/20 11:02 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Herbologist said:
Are we testing more than Italy, though?




I doubt it. My friend is a sick healthcare worker and cannot get tested.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Samskara92]
    #26558952 - 03/26/20 11:07 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Samskara92 said:
More active cases in the US than Italy



We are going to pass China for total cases by the end of the day


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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