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Offlinepslyke
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26556720 - 03/25/20 09:56 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

morrowasted said:
Quote:

pslyke said:
The numbers being reported for the US today seem fishy...

How did they have +11k new cases yesterday and around 600 cases today (so far)?



Conspiracy. The Republicans are fudging the numbers so the dems cant use this as a grab-bag :kingtard:

Could be that better hygiene practices, moderate social distancing and warmer weather make a difference :shrug:




Not at all what I was implying. I know that you have done a lot in this thread to try and quell some of the ridiculous conspiracy theories. You need not do so for me.

Keep up the good work.


--------------------
"What appears impenetrable to us does exist, manifesting itself in the deepest wisdom and the most radiant beauty" Einstein

"The conservatives of 70 years ago would be outraged at what has come to pass. It embodies everything they took up arms for to defeat"Asante


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Invisiblecannabinated
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: pslyke] * 1
    #26556723 - 03/25/20 09:59 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

were outta tests


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Offlinepslyke
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: cannabinated]
    #26556731 - 03/25/20 10:03 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Maybe I should have been more explicit--- that's what I was wondering. Or, are medical centers taking the view that 'if a positive test doesn't change the approach to treatment, it isn't critical to test'.

I do see that the new infections in the US are listed at >5k. I guess I asked the question 10 mins to early.


--------------------
"What appears impenetrable to us does exist, manifesting itself in the deepest wisdom and the most radiant beauty" Einstein

"The conservatives of 70 years ago would be outraged at what has come to pass. It embodies everything they took up arms for to defeat"Asante


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koraks]
    #26556743 - 03/25/20 10:07 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koraks said:
Quote:

morrowasted said:
Could be that better hygiene practices, moderate social distancing and warmer weather make a difference :shrug:



Not that fast and drastically. Sorry, I wish it worked that way, but it doesn't.



I'd love to hear your explanation for the differences. I agree with Cuomo that being close to each other frequently is the #1 risk factor for the spread of infectious disease. Obviously. There are other factors that I personally believe play a role. One being climate/weather conditions. In humid conditions, respiratory droplets clump together with aerosolized water and fall to the ground more quickly. The virus has been shown to have an optimal temperature for survival- a temperature that Houston only reaches for perhaps 3 weeks a year, and even then only for part of the day. Obviously the virus CAN transmit at higher temperatures, but it's less likely.

The R0 being quoted is a global average. But you can also calculate an R0 for a given region. I'm not gonna bother to do the math but if there is a global R0 of 2.5, with the current APPARENT rate of transmission and hospitalization, the r0 is rapidly approaching 1 in Houston if it not already there, but in New York may yet remain even higher than 2.5. Within a region, as well, the R0 will almost always fluctuate seasonally.


Maybe we have just as many people walking around COVID19 positive in Houston, but I can promise you we don't have 888 people in ICU with it. We don't have 88 people in ICU COVID. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't have 8 people in ICU with COVID19 here in Houston. The local nursing groupmes, facebook groups etc. have been HOPPING with COVID19 discussion and I'm not hearing noise from Houston colleagues about treating COVID patients. Some people who came up positive were admitted but every case I've heard of the person was basically just given some supplemental O2 and an Rx for albuterol MDI and sent home within like a day and just told to quarantine. I have heard through the grapevine that those patients with COVID who did make it to ICU here received remdesivir. We are still sitting at 1 death, a man in his 80s.


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26556749 - 03/25/20 10:09 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

morrowasted said:
Apparently zero new cases in Texas since I checked yesterday


Dont send the PPE here, government. We're good

Never been more excited for the onset of Houston's seven month long summer




Texas had 217 new cases yesterday


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InvisibleInfiniteDreams
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: feevers]
    #26556752 - 03/25/20 10:10 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

feevers said:
I read that they phased it out so everyone making under 75k gets 1200 now

And the socialism comment was clearly sarcasm. The GOP senators that fight any sort of "socialized" programs are the ones that fought whole-heartedly to give away hundreds of billions to corporations with practically no strings attached. The yacht, private jet, and luxury home industry is about to be poppin' like it's 2008 again




They will based it off "earned income".  That way the millionaires who get all their money from capital gains are still eligible for the $1200.


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Invisiblecannabinated
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26556753 - 03/25/20 10:10 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

it takes a week to get a test result most places


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26556759 - 03/25/20 10:13 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

morrowasted said:
Apparently zero new cases in Texas since I checked yesterday


Dont send the PPE here, government. We're good

Never been more excited for the onset of Houston's seven month long summer




Texas had 217 new cases yesterday



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm not sure how often this is being updated but I checked it last night and I can't remember what the figure was but the "New Deaths" was and remains listed at zero. I had presumed it used your cookie data to fill in the column but idk, maybe you are right.

I'm really not trying to downplay the seriousness of the situation, I just... Well, I agree with Cuomo. They need to focus resources on New York. I think that ALL of the reasons for that can't be made explicit yet for a complicated set of social reasons.


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26556767 - 03/25/20 10:17 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

You can look at yesterday’s data


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26556768 - 03/25/20 10:18 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Italy deaths were up yesterday after a 2 day decline.  It is possible that they crested in terms of transmission but that their medical system capacity is too overstretched at this point for it to matter.  I am very interested to see the numbers they report today

Edit: USA-225 yesterday, 28 so far today


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Edited by ballsalsa (03/25/20 10:21 AM)


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods] * 1
    #26556791 - 03/25/20 10:26 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
You can look at yesterday’s data



:thumbup:


Maybe it's a psychological defense mechanism (denial) because I was honestly scared shitless last week but... I just PERSONALLY am not worrying about this at the moment. Like, in terms of my own safety. I'm still staying home except when I go to work or get groceries, and observing droplet precautions in public places, but I remain increasingly optimistic about the prognosis for Texas, even in my caution.


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InvisibleTantrika
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: viraldrome] * 3
    #26556792 - 03/25/20 10:26 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

viraldrome said:
Quote:

BANANA.MAN said:
We're seeing more cases in my Region. It's going down.




Yonge Street yesterday






It's such a haunting image
yet it is also surreal to me knowing that such images will likely be once-in-a-lifetime captures


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InvisibleShroomerInTheRye
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26556794 - 03/25/20 10:28 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I think they were expecting this because two weeks ago, lots of people from the most affected region fled to the south of Italy before everything got locked down.  Kind of like how people from New York fled to Florida to avoid being locked down.  I expect Florida to get worse than NY.


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InvisibleShroomerInTheRye
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: pslyke] * 1
    #26556798 - 03/25/20 10:29 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

pslyke said:
The numbers being reported for the US today seem fishy...

How did they have +11k new cases yesterday and around 600 cases today (so far)?




Someone raised the bell about this in Florida's numbers.  This is from our local NPR station, WLRN
https://www.wlrn.org/post/theres-something-strange-about-floridas-coronavirus-data#stream/0


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Invisiblekoraks
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26556854 - 03/25/20 10:50 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

morrowasted said:
Quote:

koraks said:
Quote:

morrowasted said:
Could be that better hygiene practices, moderate social distancing and warmer weather make a difference :shrug:



Not that fast and drastically. Sorry, I wish it worked that way, but it doesn't.



I'd love to hear your explanation for the differences.



I was referring to the 600 cases vs. 11k cases difference that was quoted. Daily growth rate in cases doesn't drop that fast; the only explanation is a measurement fluke.

Look, here in The Netherlands we started taking measures towards social distancing etc. 2 weeks ago and by and large, they are practiced reasonably well. R0 is estimated to be around 1 here currently. Today we are seeing what hopefully looks a bit like the growth rate becoming less steep. It's so subtle that it's not even certain that we're actually seeing this. It takes at least 2 weeks before you see effects of measures being taken with this in the case development numbers and 4-8 weeks before the death rate starts dropping.

The US lags behind on both cases and measures a little over a week or so on The Netherlands, and consequently, it's unlikely you'll see a dramatic drop in new daily cases in the next 7 days or so. Especially given the fact that the measures taken in the US are certainly not more thorough than in The Netherlands; they're roughly similar.


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Invisiblecannabinated
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: ShroomerInTheRye]
    #26556856 - 03/25/20 10:50 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)



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Offlinewatermelon mon
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: cannabinated]
    #26556867 - 03/25/20 10:54 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I dont see how the summer will stop it ? Just seems lile it would make it worse.

It's spreading in places that are hot all of the time.


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koraks]
    #26556880 - 03/25/20 10:57 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koraks said:

I was referring to the 600 cases vs. 11k cases difference that was quoted. Daily growth rate in cases doesn't drop that fast; the only explanation is a measurement fluke.

Look, here in The Netherlands we started taking measures towards social distancing etc. 2 weeks ago and by and large, they are practiced reasonably well. R0 is estimated to be around 1 here currently. Today we are seeing what hopefully looks a bit like the growth rate becoming less steep. It's so subtle that it's not even certain that we're actually seeing this. It takes at least 2 weeks before you see effects of measures being taken with this in the case development numbers and 4-8 weeks before the death rate starts dropping.

The US lags behind on both cases and measures a little over a week or so on The Netherlands, and consequently, it's unlikely you'll see a dramatic drop in new daily cases in the next 7 days or so. Especially given the fact that the measures taken in the US are certainly not more thorough than in The Netherlands; they're roughly similar.



Houston started taking social distancing measures about 10-12 days ago IIRC. Closing bars, restaurants, etc. Playing "wash your hands frequently, stay 6 feet away from each other" announcements over the loudspeakers in all the grocery stores and such. It also started getting up into the upper 80s every day around the same time. the high today is 91F:shrug: I think these factors were sufficient to mitigate the problem well enough that isn't going to be an issue for out medical system at all here in Houston. They might not next winter, but then people will be ready for it and will be practicing hygiene and social distancing prophylactically.


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: watermelon mon]
    #26556887 - 03/25/20 10:58 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

watermelon mon said:
I dont see how the summer will stop it ? Just seems lile it would make it worse.

It's spreading in places that are hot all of the time.



leave this here for the 3rd time

https://www.health24.com/Medical/Infectious-diseases/Coronavirus/study-suggests-the-new-coronavirus-might-follow-seasonal-pattern-20200323-2


Quote:

All areas experiencing significant outbreaks of the Covid-19 virus fall within a northern corridor that has an average temperature of 41 to 52 degrees Fahrenheit (5 to 11 degrees Celsius) and an average humidity of 47% to 79%, according to virology researchers.


Lab studies also showed that a temperature of 39 degrees Fahrenheit (3.8 degrees Celsius) and a humidity level of 20% to 80% is most conducive to the virus' survival.





Quote:

- a temperature that Houston only reaches for perhaps 3 weeks a year, and even then only for part of the day. Obviously the virus CAN transmit at higher temperatures, but it's less likely.




Furthermore as I have stated repeatedly the use of public transportation here is very limited and there are literally zero parts of Houston where the streets are as packed as those of NYC. there's one small area that has maybe 50% as much foot traffic

French quarter in new orleans resembles streets of NYC somewhat and all those drunk folk at mardi gras and florida spring break were probably making out indiscriminately, etc.


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Invisiblecannabinated
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26556897 - 03/25/20 11:00 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)



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