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Onlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26552703 - 03/23/20 09:31 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Texas is seeing about 25% more cases per day. No different than anywhere else.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods] * 2
    #26552705 - 03/23/20 09:32 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

trees said:
What I added and then koods shat on is decent info that I'll apply to my daily practice, thought it would be good or others




It’s riduculous information. Like your entire respiratory tract is not connected to itself. You get infected in the nose and you breathe through your nose it’s in your lungs. Stop spreading bogus information from your secret highly connected medical geniuses.



Not necessarily. Seems a lot of folks are experiencing nothing but loss of taste and smell from this virus but never have other symptoms which suggests it is lodging in the nasopharynx and not progressing further down the resp. tract


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Invisiblepsi
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted] * 1
    #26552707 - 03/23/20 09:33 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

morrowasted said:
So far it appears almost all of the cases identified in Houston were individuals who had traveled elsewhere.



Seems like there can be a confirmation bias effect around this kind of thing in a lot of places. Start from the assumption that all cases can still be traced to known cases from people who traveled elsewhere, focus testing resources on people who meet these criteria, and then later be surprised that there are so many cases that you can't always connect everyone to a known case.


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26552711 - 03/23/20 09:35 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Texas is seeing about 25% more cases per day. No different than anywhere else.



We saw a 16% increase and this is just an artifact of increased testing IMO. You'll almost see the curve assume an S shape as a greater proportion of the population gets tested. Unless this is totally unlike any epidemiological phenomenon in history. Which is unlikely.


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Onlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26552717 - 03/23/20 09:37 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Today is 25%

600 to 717 that’s ~25% and it’s not even noon

Texas simply doesn’t have the amount of domestic and international travel as much of the country.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


Edited by koods (03/23/20 09:41 AM)


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: psi]
    #26552721 - 03/23/20 09:39 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

psi said:
Quote:

morrowasted said:
So far it appears almost all of the cases identified in Houston were individuals who had traveled elsewhere.



Seems like there can be a confirmation bias effect around this kind of thing in a lot of places. Start from the assumption that all cases can still be traced to known cases from people who traveled elsewhere, focus testing resources on people who meet these criteria, and then later be surprised that there are so many cases that you can't always connect everyone to a known case.



The thing is, people are not showing up to the ER here with COVID anymore. I mean, they are, but barely. On the other hand, people are showing up the ER in New York. I'm in a lot of nursing groups and forums and what they are reporting is very different from what we are experiencing in Texas. Maybe we are just "a few weeks behind them" but... my intuition right now is that we're not, and this is going to mostly go away here in the next couple of weeks until next winter.

we are both wrong, it's actually 20%


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InvisibleCrazy_Horse
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26552722 - 03/23/20 09:39 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Everything smells like oranges.


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Invisiblepsi
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26552723 - 03/23/20 09:41 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Maybe we are just "a few weeks behind them" but... my intuition right now is that we're not, and this is going to mostly go away here in the next couple of weeks until next winter.



Hopefully you are right.


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Onlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Crazy_Horse]
    #26552727 - 03/23/20 09:42 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

we are both wrong, it's actually 20%




It’s not even noon


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Onlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26552728 - 03/23/20 09:43 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

What’s happening in New York is almost certainly due to a large amount of undetected seeding from Italy.


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NotSheekle said
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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26552729 - 03/23/20 09:45 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

we are both wrong, it's actually 20%




It’s not even noon



pretty sure those stats are from yesterday?


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Onlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26552730 - 03/23/20 09:46 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Any artifacts from a lack of testing in New York have been accounted for in previous days. New York probably has the most accurate representation of reality in the country now


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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InvisiblePrimal Glitch
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26552733 - 03/23/20 09:49 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Crazy_Horse said:
Everything smells like oranges.



:dontspillme:


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                                  make the changa you wish to see in the world
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26552734 - 03/23/20 09:49 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

morrowasted said:
Article in the newspaper this morning says a new study shows the virus is significantly less effective at transmitting in hot/humid conditions. This is likely a large part of the reason we haven't seen it spread as much here in Texas despite being a major travel hub.




I dunno about that.  Seems to be spreading just fine here in Florida.  The hottest most humid state in the nation.


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Onlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26552735 - 03/23/20 09:49 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

morrowasted said:
Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

we are both wrong, it's actually 20%




It’s not even noon



pretty sure those stats are from yesterday?




Maybe. It’s such a joke how reporting is done. Some places update multiple times a day others once a day . Some places it comes from the state others county by county.

Our decentralized approach to public health is a distaster


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Onlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26552737 - 03/23/20 09:51 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

In Texas are they still requiring patients get a full viral panel of negative results before they test for covid-19?


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Onlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26552746 - 03/23/20 09:57 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

morrowasted said:
Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

trees said:
What I added and then koods shat on is decent info that I'll apply to my daily practice, thought it would be good or others




It’s riduculous information. Like your entire respiratory tract is not connected to itself. You get infected in the nose and you breathe through your nose it’s in your lungs. Stop spreading bogus information from your secret highly connected medical geniuses.



Not necessarily. Seems a lot of folks are experiencing nothing but loss of taste and smell from this virus but never have other symptoms which suggests it is lodging in the nasopharynx and not progressing further down the resp. tract




People who first get infected in the gastrointestinal tract still develop pneumonia. The median time from first symptoms to pneumonia in all cases is almost a week. Believing that not getting your lungs infected first will save you from pneumonia is foolish. Within two or three generations of viral replication inside your body, your viral load will far surpass anything you could take in from the environment.

Don’t confuse this with the danger of being exposed to a high viral load. The chance that any individual viral particle will infect you is extremely low.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


Edited by koods (03/23/20 10:14 AM)


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Onlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26552760 - 03/23/20 10:06 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Yesterday and today Texas

Start new end  growth
473  125  598  1.26
598  121  719  1.20

Those numbers are in line with other places with colder climates


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26552771 - 03/23/20 10:16 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Any artifacts from a lack of testing in New York have been accounted for in previous days. New York probably has the most accurate representation of reality in the country now



Not if it is the case that there are regional variations based on latitude and humidity :rolleyes:

This honestly shouldnt surprise anyone

droplets fall to the ground when it's humid and warm

people cluster inside when it's cold out

a shitload of people in NYC use public transportation (barely anyone here does).


yeah, the virus is something to take seriously, but that doesn't mean we have to throw out nuance in our analysis. it's good to be able to predict where the outbreak will be worst so that supplies can be diverted there as much as possible. frankly I'm fine with having all the n95s diverted to the northern states right now, that's how confident I am that the problem there is going to be much worse than it is here. obviously there is a lot of intuition/common sense reasoning going into play here but... some of the best doctors and nurses I know can't explain a damn thing to you about their intuitions, but their intuitions save lives constantly.


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Onlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26552785 - 03/23/20 10:23 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Just a quick glance at these numbers from yesterday, and not doing the math on each one; but Florida and Louisiana seem to have the highest growth rates in the country. Two of the most tropical and humid states.



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NotSheekle said
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