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Rahz
Alive Again



Registered: 11/10/05
Posts: 9,230
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Northernblades]
#26610127 - 04/18/20 10:38 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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I think the hump will last well into May before a significant decline. States that open up early will experience a resurgence, but not as significant as the initial wave.
By late Summer, minus the 30% unemployment rate, everyone will be back to work. Masks and sanitizer will be plentiful. By that point there won't be a stigma surrounding the use of masks and even though the transmission rate will decrease, everyone will know someone who was killed or lost quality of life from infection. More people will be taking precautions and social distancing voluntarily. There will be a resurgence mid Winter but not of major significance, however because of the measures taken, herd immunity will not develop. This will be exacerbated by the fact that since the prevalence of the virus doesn't diminish to marginal levels it will continually mutate and we will be stuck with it for a decade or more.
Social distancing will be a reality for a long time to come. People will be reluctant to eat at restaurants even after restrictions are eased and a majority of restaurants will fail along with other industries. The middle class will be cut in half. Murder rates will increase world wide along with domestic violence and pretty much every other form of violence. Alcoholism and hard drug use will increase. Many women will turn to prostitution. There will be social unrest, looting and an overall increase in crime, organized and otherwise. There is the possibility of various regional wars or even a world war. Many more people in the world will die from starvation and other diseases. Looking back people will begin to suggest we should have just kept working and let those who would die, die. The meager stockpile of ppe will be seen as a major tragedy... an unwillingness to spend a few billion dollars on stockpile will have cost many lives and trillions.
Inflation, bank failures, food shortages, homelessness, etc.
-------------------- rahz comfort pleasure power love truth awareness peace "You’re not looking close enough if you can only see yourself in people who look like you." —Ayishat Akanbi
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laughingdog
Stranger

Registered: 03/14/04
Posts: 4,828
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: DividedQuantum]
#26610196 - 04/18/20 11:13 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
DividedQuantum said: Good points. Yes, I understand the predominating need to resume as much economic activity as possible as soon as it is viable. And you're right that things seem to be going all right for essential workers. I only meant to highlight the misplaced hope and futility of presuming that things are letting up, which, seemingly, a lot of people are buying into. People need to realize that this will be a long haul.
As far as a vaccine, I was talking to my Dad the other day and he was describing, I think, an article he read in the New York Times. In it, the CEO of Johnson & Johnson was saying that, in absolute terms, the very soonest we can expect a viable vaccine is one year from now, and possibly later. She said, and she knows, that around next April is the earliest that one can practically be released. So yeah, to have that in a reasonable time frame is literally impossible.
As far as test kits, you may be right that that is a long way off, too. But, and I am no expert, it seems to me that trying to resume normal activities before we can test like crazy will just result in future spikes -- a W instead of a V, as they say.
Obviously we'll have to see what happens, but the salient point is that we are nowhere near the other end of the tunnel.
. Yes the experts all agree. Virus evolution is not stopping just because Covid-19 is a bitch -- on the contrary, it could just be a sample of possibly even more deadly combinations of virulence (fatality), and spreadability (contagion). . The danger of pandemics has been warned of by many for over a decade, due to the whole world being connected by airplanes now. And the Chinese 'wet market' has not really been closed, as there is a big loop hole due to "traditional Chinese Medicine" still being allowed access to wild species that are caged next to birds, (& possibly still civets) which are one of the vectors involved in spreading viruses to humans. . Like wise the use of Bushmeat in Africa & South America, and world wide factory farming (where animals are confined with no sunlight & in their own feces) by the millions, all provide a perfect set up for virus evolution and/or spread. . Documentation / references have been added (today April18) to the thread: "Covid-19 & what we don't want to know..." with Michael Greger, MD's video on "Pandemics: History & Prevention" --note the video is over 10 years old, yet deals with what is happening now. . What we have, is evidence, that just like many of humanity's other problems, the usual suspects are at the root of the problem.
. And yes the experts also agree that a vaccine can be made quickly -- BUT not a safe one! To make a safe one requires lots of long term testing & trials.
. And yes there is no good answer, no one size fits all as regards economies vs safety. As a result some places will loosen too quickly, and there will be waves of increased death and sickness.
. A limitation on doing more testing is the supply chain for the chemicals needed -- guess where they come from -- that's right China---and we don't have them now.
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laughingdog
Stranger

Registered: 03/14/04
Posts: 4,828
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Rahz]
#26610210 - 04/18/20 11:21 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Unfortunately, Rahz, seems to me, there's a good chance a lot of your predictions are correct.
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Grapefruit
Freak in the forest


Registered: 05/09/08
Posts: 5,744
Last seen: 3 years, 1 month
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Rahz]
#26610214 - 04/18/20 11:22 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Rahz said: I think the hump will last well into May before a significant decline. States that open up early will experience a resurgence, but not as significant as the initial wave.
By late Summer, minus the 30% unemployment rate, everyone will be back to work. Masks and sanitizer will be plentiful. By that point there won't be a stigma surrounding the use of masks and even though the transmission rate will decrease, everyone will know someone who was killed or lost quality of life from infection. More people will be taking precautions and social distancing voluntarily. There will be a resurgence mid Winter but not of major significance, however because of the measures taken, herd immunity will not develop. This will be exacerbated by the fact that since the prevalence of the virus doesn't diminish to marginal levels it will continually mutate and we will be stuck with it for a decade or more.
Social distancing will be a reality for a long time to come. People will be reluctant to eat at restaurants even after restrictions are eased and a majority of restaurants will fail along with other industries. The middle class will be cut in half. Murder rates will increase world wide along with domestic violence and pretty much every other form of violence. Alcoholism and hard drug use will increase. Many women will turn to prostitution. There will be social unrest, looting and an overall increase in crime, organized and otherwise. There is the possibility of various regional wars or even a world war. Many more people in the world will die from starvation and other diseases. Looking back people will begin to suggest we should have just kept working and let those who would die, die. The meager stockpile of ppe will be seen as a major tragedy... an unwillingness to spend a few billion dollars on stockpile will have cost many lives and trillions.
Inflation, bank failures, food shortages, homelessness, etc.
The social distancing measures at the moment are more just about not flooding the health services, things will have to relax at some point, by then hospitals will be more prepared and PPE manufacture will be in full swing. Things may be different for America though as you unfortunately have a complete idiot in charge in a role to which is already given far too much power.
-------------------- Little left in the way of energy; or the way of love, yet happy to entertain myself playing mental games with the rest of you freaks until the rivers run backwards. "Chat your fraff Chat your fraff Just chat your fraff Chat your fraff"
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laughingdog
Stranger

Registered: 03/14/04
Posts: 4,828
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Grapefruit]
#26610307 - 04/18/20 11:55 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Grapefruit said: .... you unfortunately have a complete idiot in charge in a role to which is already given far too much power.
too true
the limit on testing seems to be partly due to lack of the chemicals that are needed.
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laughingdog
Stranger

Registered: 03/14/04
Posts: 4,828
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: laughingdog]
#26610316 - 04/18/20 11:59 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Rahz
Alive Again



Registered: 11/10/05
Posts: 9,230
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Grapefruit]
#26610406 - 04/18/20 12:23 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Grapefruit said: The social distancing measures at the moment are more just about not flooding the health services, things will have to relax at some point, by then hospitals will be more prepared and PPE manufacture will be in full swing. Things may be different for America though as you unfortunately have a complete idiot in charge in a role to which is already given far too much power.
Perhaps. I think much of the paranoia is due to a lack of information. We still don't know the fatality rate, which seems to be between .5% and 5-10% depending on the source... which seems crazy to me. Some researchers are suggesting based on antibody tests that a much larger number of people are asymptomatic than is generally suspected, putting the fatality rate at .05-.06% or about 3-5 times more deadly than the flu. If that's the case, and it comes to light then social distancing will drop off along with the hump. But if the rate is actually higher than that I can see social distancing being a thing for years. Many people will do a lot to avoid a 1/20 or even a 1/50 chance of death.
And to be fair, I don't think the world was prepared on any level for this pandemic. Nobody took it seriously until it was intimately serious. And another point of view is that in some ways there was an over-reaction after the lack of reaction. I keep track of Swedish stats and it may turn out that they had the right response. Old people are mostly retired anyway and should stay home, isolated from the youth and workers.
And considering that we don't know the fatality rate yet, it's reasonable to suggest this whole reaction was based purely on perception rather than facts. Doing too much, too little, or "just right" is all just a shot in the dark. We'll be in a better position to really know what the fallout is a few months from now along with whether there was an over-reaction. I hope my outlook is overly gloomy but much of the damage is already done.
-------------------- rahz comfort pleasure power love truth awareness peace "You’re not looking close enough if you can only see yourself in people who look like you." —Ayishat Akanbi
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Grapefruit
Freak in the forest


Registered: 05/09/08
Posts: 5,744
Last seen: 3 years, 1 month
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Rahz]
#26610532 - 04/18/20 01:13 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Maybe so, I think people will start to be more confident in going out once contact tracing and testing has been properly implemented.
It was funny seeing the news reports on the spanish flu from back in the day on the video laughingdog posted, most of the concern seemed to be about whether they could dig enough graves. Looks to me like people were more comfortable with death and dying back then, it might be the case that much of the medical profession is a sort of modern psychological mistake that has cushioned us too much from natural environmental causes of death.
-------------------- Little left in the way of energy; or the way of love, yet happy to entertain myself playing mental games with the rest of you freaks until the rivers run backwards. "Chat your fraff Chat your fraff Just chat your fraff Chat your fraff"
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laughingdog
Stranger

Registered: 03/14/04
Posts: 4,828
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Grapefruit]
#26612864 - 04/19/20 12:10 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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in case anyone is interested in why a vaccine soon is very unlikely but it does get a little technical
too long & has images - to just copy & paste
https://news.yahoo.com/father-top-virologist-believes-coronavirus-130000388.html
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Buster_Brown
L'une


Registered: 09/17/11
Posts: 11,309
Last seen: 2 days, 9 hours
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: laughingdog]
#26612917 - 04/19/20 12:27 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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"The main distinction you need to understand is between the initial development of vaccine candidates and their pre-clinical (non-human) testing, and the subsequent various phases of human testing, followed by production, distribution, and administration. For all but three vaccine candidates for SARS-CoV-2, we are still in the non-human phase, and many candidates may be 'stuck' in there for weeks, months, or even years, possibly not getting through at all. It's only when they get through the initial phase that candidates really get to the start of the 'race to the vaccine'."
Another perspective:
"Stanley Plotkin of the University of Pennsylvania, inventor of the current rubella vaccine and a leader in the vaccine field, says a carefully designed “human challenge” trial could offer clear proof of a vaccine’s worth at blinding speed. “We’re talking 2, 3 months,” says Plotkin, who has co-authored a commentary, now being submitted for publication, that describes how this might be ethically done. “People who are faced with a terrifying problem like this one will opt for measures that are unusual. And we have to constantly rethink our biases.” A similar proposal for coronavirus challenge studies was published online today in the Journal of Infectious Diseases. www.sciencemag.org (underlining mine)
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Forrester
aspiring sociopath


Registered: 02/05/13
Posts: 9,351
Loc: Northeast USA
Last seen: 24 days, 15 hours
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Buster_Brown]
#26613002 - 04/19/20 01:06 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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We are chasing our own tails the longer we keep trying to solve these things with a new vaccine or wonder drug... there will just be another virus or strain of bacteria that's stronger.
A healthy immune system and learning to live with nature instead of trying to dominate it is the only way we're going to make it...
-------------------- Repugnant is a creature who would squander the ability to lift an eye to heaven, conscious of his fleeting time here. ------------------- Have some medicinal mushrooms and want to get the most out of them? Try this double extraction method.
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laughingdog
Stranger

Registered: 03/14/04
Posts: 4,828
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Buster_Brown]
#26613110 - 04/19/20 02:29 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Yes many efforts are being made, both for drugs that may mitigate the disease, and some research lab may get lucky -- Some good news just came out & a stock jumped-- But I think the point of the article is that on the other hand we should not be surprised if the process takes a year or more -- as has been the case with other diseases.
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laughingdog
Stranger

Registered: 03/14/04
Posts: 4,828
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Forrester]
#26613132 - 04/19/20 02:38 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Forrester said: We are chasing our own tails the longer we keep trying to solve these things with a new vaccine or wonder drug... there will just be another virus or strain of bacteria that's stronger.
A healthy immune system and learning to live with nature instead of trying to dominate it is the only way we're going to make it...
. As regards "learning to live with nature " we are a long way from that --- in fact humans have been busy doing the opposite for thousands of years, and since perhaps 1970 there has been a dramatic increase in those 3 behaviors that increase the likely hood of pandemics, as I posted yesterday above: . "Yes the experts all agree. Virus evolution is not stopping just because Covid-19 is a bitch -- on the contrary, it could just be a sample of possibly even more deadly combinations of virulence (fatality), and spreadability (contagion). . The danger of pandemics has been warned of by many for over a decade, due to the whole world being connected by airplanes now. And the Chinese 'wet market' has not really been closed, as there is a big loop hole due to "traditional Chinese Medicine" still being allowed access to wild species that are caged next to birds, (& possibly still civets) which are one of the vectors involved in spreading viruses to humans. . Like wise the use of Bushmeat in Africa & South America, and world wide factory farming (where animals are confined with no sunlight & in their own feces) by the millions, all provide a perfect set up for virus evolution and/or spread."
The movie in the other Covid-19 thread explains all this in much greater depth.
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redgreenvines
irregular verb


Registered: 04/08/04
Posts: 37,531
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: laughingdog]
#26613453 - 04/19/20 05:26 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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learning to live with nature involves science, it always has, and villages usually respected the scientist who probably also was their doctor and their priest.
exploiting nature often involves exploiting technological scientists as well as nature.
the scientists are not the exploiters; the corporations are on behalf of their investors.
this is the area where we need to focus and resist, and we need to use science and technology for that resistance, not as a weapon but as a the repository for non-aligned truths about nature, and honesty about what investors and their corporations are doing to nature.
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redgreenvines
irregular verb


Registered: 04/08/04
Posts: 37,531
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: redgreenvines]
#26613619 - 04/19/20 07:01 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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been reading about Stanley Plotkin https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/doctor-who-invented-rubella-vaccine-working-to-fight-the-coronavirus.html and the new vaccine development. the methodology is intriguing.
and as an update, my brother who spent 6 weeks in a covid ICU, 4 of them on a ventilator, is back home, and well enough now to write me an email - he is doing great, as long as he stays in bed, other than that it's still a bit challenging.
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Grapefruit
Freak in the forest


Registered: 05/09/08
Posts: 5,744
Last seen: 3 years, 1 month
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: redgreenvines]
#26613820 - 04/19/20 08:27 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Why do you exempt science from being a potentially exploitative tool, or scientists from being exploitative? Everything and everyone else can be, and seems to me science and scientists have been. 
Glad to hear your brother is doing okay.
-------------------- Little left in the way of energy; or the way of love, yet happy to entertain myself playing mental games with the rest of you freaks until the rivers run backwards. "Chat your fraff Chat your fraff Just chat your fraff Chat your fraff"
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The Blind Ass
Bodhi



Registered: 08/16/16
Posts: 26,657
Loc: The Primordial Mind
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: redgreenvines]
#26614249 - 04/20/20 02:33 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
redgreenvines said: been reading about Stanley Plotkin https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/doctor-who-invented-rubella-vaccine-working-to-fight-the-coronavirus.html and the new vaccine development. the methodology is intriguing.
and as an update, my brother who spent 6 weeks in a covid ICU, 4 of them on a ventilator, is back home, and well enough now to write me an email - he is doing great, as long as he stays in bed, other than that it's still a bit challenging.
Sounds like he’s in the period of convalescence right now and that he’s through the worst of it. Good to hear.
-------------------- Give me Liberty caps -or- give me Death caps
Edited by The Blind Ass (04/20/20 02:34 AM)
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redgreenvines
irregular verb


Registered: 04/08/04
Posts: 37,531
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Grapefruit]
#26614387 - 04/20/20 05:27 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Grapefruit said: Why do you exempt science from being a potentially exploitative tool, or scientists from being exploitative? Everything and everyone else can be, and seems to me science and scientists have been.  ...
When a person is greedy and self serving, they do not represent a professional community except the community of self servement and greed, e.g. that of investors seeking the highest return no matter what. (i.e. not even all investors just the greediest of them)
I think pointing fingers at scientists is probably due to political motivation, i.e. a kind of culture of division, such as Republicans are known to foster, and Putin is delighted to see how well that is going.
Even if we are all speaking the same language, we are in our own areas of expertise so we have achieved a lack of understanding of each other equivalent to the biblical tower of babel.
the enemy of environment is not science, it is the best-bang-for-your-bucker-fuckers
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Yellow Pants



Registered: 05/14/17
Posts: 1,386
Loc:
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: redgreenvines]
#26615116 - 04/20/20 11:42 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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I don’t think scientists are exempt from moral decisions. On some level they probably have to choose to associate with or work for the benefit of different kinds of people. What about a scientist works on the development of a new weapon of mass destruction for some defense agency? Not saying the accomplice in the murder is the same as the one who actually does the murder.
Same with law enforcement or the military. At some level they choose to obey the order of the director or king or whatever it is. It’s interesting nonetheless.
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redgreenvines
irregular verb


Registered: 04/08/04
Posts: 37,531
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Re: Coronavirus - the cure vs the disease [Re: Yellow Pants]
#26615320 - 04/20/20 01:03 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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while the number of thugs who are cops could be as high as 60% (if you ask a criminal lawyer) the number of scientists who have greedy and evil behavior is probably down around 6% matching the general public.
I just made up those numbers but they jive with my life experience.
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