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22Carat



Registered: 11/15/12
Posts: 1,378
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This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression...
#26547791 - 03/20/20 11:08 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Hi guys! Ready for some doomsaying?
I'm a rusty economist of sorts. That was my college major, and I still need to finish out (4 more classes once/if I can get in!), so I try to keep a thread on things to keep my head in the right place.
This last month has been pure insanity. I wanna count the ways with you guys. Keep in mind, I'm rusty, and all of this is coming off the dome.
THE STOCK MARKET First, there's the Dow. The Dow is Dow...n. It's dropping faster than it has in recent memory. In the last month and a half, the Dow has dropped around 30-35%. During the Great Depression, the Dow dropped something like 20% in a few days, so this decline has been initially slower. The issue here is that that problem was easily fixable during the Great Depression; all we needed were works projects and a World War. This is a virus that's going to be around for months.
During the Great Depression, the Dow ended up dropping around 80% overall over the course of around 2 years, if memory serves. I suspect that the current situation could end up being worse, not just because of the coronavirus but also because of...
THE CORPORATE DEBT BUBBLE POP!!
That's what bubbles do, and this one is worth trillions. It's probably going to pop, and it's just a matter of when. What happens when Kraft defaults on its debt in the face of a bear market? Nothing good, I can assure you.
Unfortunately, the thing that's supposed to help is...
THE GOVERNMENT Keynes? Is that a clothing brand?
The governemnt's current bright idea here in the States is to inject money directly into the economy. How that'll improve things is beyond me. We need works projects. Jobs. Not checks. But y'know? Screw that. Who needs a robust, functioning economy.
THE ECONOMY Many countries are at a standstill. The US is slowly going under, what with its two biggest states shutting down (Cali and NY). This slows the economy further. Where are investors supposed to go?
===========================
Anyway, what do y'all think of this? I'm starting to think that this could be the fall of the US/global economy. If it's not, at least I'll have some great stock at some point.
-------------------- 22
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Darwin23
INFJ



Registered: 10/08/10
Posts: 3,277
Loc: United States
Last seen: 1 day, 17 hours
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: 22Carat] 1
#26548045 - 03/21/20 03:16 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I agree. We're in a really desperate situation and I think we'll come out of this into a different world. The economy can't get better until the virus does but that will take many months or years. As long as it has its thumb on us, we're just going to keep sinking.
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Take a look at my journal
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: Darwin23] 2
#26548523 - 03/21/20 09:56 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Yah, it's gonna be a pretty shit year of rolling quarantined, economic bailouts and general economic malaise.
But almost all countries will meet their climate change goals. People will realize they can do with less. Less work, less material crap. And God forbid, if the USA and the rest of Europe end up like Italy, it will be the greatest generational transfer of wealth ever seen. It's also the best chance the USA has at reforming its healthcare system, and for countries to implement a universal basic income.
So yes, it's going to be really bad, but there could be some really good change from it.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


Registered: 07/09/16
Posts: 10,698
Last seen: 6 months, 11 days
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26548767 - 03/21/20 11:52 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Just wana follow and see what others say
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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22Carat



Registered: 11/15/12
Posts: 1,378
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26548885 - 03/21/20 01:02 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: So yes, it's going to be really bad, but there could be some really good change from it.
I completely agree. To be absolutely honest, I wanted some sort of destabilization to happen, a wake up call and some fertile soil upon which to grow something new. I thought that Trump would be sufficient. Little did I know exactly what was going down.
At the end of the day, I'll likely survive this along with most of the people that I care about. Hopefully some positive change occurs.
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nooneman


Registered: 04/24/09
Posts: 14,561
Loc: Utah
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: 22Carat]
#26549089 - 03/21/20 03:07 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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It has the potential to be as bad as the great depression, but I don't think most people fully understand or appreciate just how bad the great depression was or how long it lasted for.
All the businesses that close now are going to go out of business. They're not going to come roaring back. There are very few businesses in America that can survive even 2 months without income, let alone 12 or 18. So all the theaters, restaurants, hotels, airlines, cruise lines, entertainment venues, everything that closes now is fucked. They'll all go out of business. They're not coming back ever, when they shut down now, they're gone for good.
So that creates mass joblessness, and as a result people can't pay their mortgages and loans. So then mass foreclosures hit, and then the banks go under. That's what caused the 2008 crisis, so you pretty much add the 2008 crisis to the closure of millions of businesses across America.
So then, the federal government is only pulling in a tiny fraction of the money they get now, and as a result there have to be massive cuts to social services. Social security probably goes first, but ultimately education, police, and fire all face absolutely massive cuts. So that puts more people out of work, resulting in more foreclosures.
The thing is though, America will be the least affected by this of anyone. This will happen to all countries on earth, and America being the most powerful and the most wealthy will as a result survive the best.
Places like Russia or China? They're beyond fucked. They might even see regime change as a result of massive social unrest. That's why they're both hiding the extent of the virus and its consequences, because they know what's going to happen in the next 18 months.
Having said all that, just to give some perspective, all of that might still not be as bad as the great depression. That's how bad the great depression was.
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


Registered: 07/09/16
Posts: 10,698
Last seen: 6 months, 11 days
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: nooneman]
#26549101 - 03/21/20 03:12 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Advice ?
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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nooneman


Registered: 04/24/09
Posts: 14,561
Loc: Utah
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: Enkidu]
#26549109 - 03/21/20 03:15 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I have none. Sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and take the lashing.
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22Carat



Registered: 11/15/12
Posts: 1,378
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: nooneman]
#26549158 - 03/21/20 03:41 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
nooneman said: It has the potential to be as bad as the great depression, but I don't think most people fully understand or appreciate just how bad the great depression was or how long it lasted for.
All the businesses that close now are going to go out of business. They're not going to come roaring back. There are very few businesses in America that can survive even 2 months without income, let alone 12 or 18. So all the theaters, restaurants, hotels, airlines, cruise lines, entertainment venues, everything that closes now is fucked. They'll all go out of business. They're not coming back ever, when they shut down now, they're gone for good.
So that creates mass joblessness, and as a result people can't pay their mortgages and loans. So then mass foreclosures hit, and then the banks go under. That's what caused the 2008 crisis, so you pretty much add the 2008 crisis to the closure of millions of businesses across America.
So then, the federal government is only pulling in a tiny fraction of the money they get now, and as a result there have to be massive cuts to social services. Social security probably goes first, but ultimately education, police, and fire all face absolutely massive cuts. So that puts more people out of work, resulting in more foreclosures.
The thing is though, America will be the least affected by this of anyone. This will happen to all countries on earth, and America being the most powerful and the most wealthy will as a result survive the best.
Places like Russia or China? They're beyond fucked. They might even see regime change as a result of massive social unrest. That's why they're both hiding the extent of the virus and its consequences, because they know what's going to happen in the next 18 months.
Having said all that, just to give some perspective, all of that might still not be as bad as the great depression. That's how bad the great depression was.
I'm glad someone else is on board with how bad this could be. I guess my understanding of the Depression could be lacking, but anything even on par would be devastating, not to mention that this'll be more far reaching with the economy being as global as it is.
I'm concerned that war could result. China has the world's largest army, and they're going to get rapidly desperate. Russia has no qualms with flexing either.
I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the fact that many businesses can't stay afloat for months at a time without income. Borrowing on the corporate level will likely increase, small businesses will likely close. The economy is going to shatter, and it's not even going to take that long.
This'll be one hell of a ride.
-------------------- 22
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22Carat



Registered: 11/15/12
Posts: 1,378
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: Enkidu]
#26549164 - 03/21/20 03:45 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Enkidu said: Advice ?
My advice would be to invest in understanding how to get food and water when there isn't much around. I plan to invest in my understanding of gathering, and I'm stocking up on a few canned goods and canning some food and water. Worst case, I'm totally wrong about this and have to cook up some spam a few months from now; best case I'm saving just enough for a couple of months, assuming I won't be as bad off as many will be.
Get a job that's likely to stick around and overperform at it. Show yourself to be useful if you can; useful people stay alive when shit hits the fan.
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


Registered: 07/09/16
Posts: 10,698
Last seen: 6 months, 11 days
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: 22Carat]
#26549187 - 03/21/20 03:53 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Im working a job as a framer right now that my boss said is considered essential workforce.
Guess we'll see how things go.
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: 22Carat] 3
#26549197 - 03/21/20 03:59 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I think China will hold up better than the USA for a number of reasons.
China has more monetary policy room while the USA is already at zero China has better citizen tracking because privacy laws are nearly non-existant so they can continue to isolate and monitor people proactively while the USA is going to permanently be playing catch-up and dealing with the odd rogue patient that ignores quarentine rules and infects dozens of people. Chinese Government can give financial stimulus much faster to industry with a one party system. They can pick winners and losers in industry without criticism and still achieve a level of employment that holds society together.
The USA doesn't have any of these going for it. Plus it's an election year. I believe that this crisis will be the closest the USA has gotten to collapsing since the civil war.
Freedom and liberty are not the values you want in a pandemic. You want obedient people you can track and monitor with a large government oversite.
Hospitals are going to turn away people. The army will set up checkpoints. People with guns will start riots and violent uprisings and cities will burn. And I fear to say it, but Trump's ego won't allow himself to admit how bad it is and he'll always be two steps behind during the whole thing. I imagine the USA election will be cancelled or postphoned too.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: Enkidu] 1
#26549203 - 03/21/20 04:02 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Enkidu said: Im working a job as a framer right now that my boss said is considered essential workforce.
Guess we'll see how things go.
Everyone thinks they are essential. Fucking GameStop employees were told they are essential. A&TT employees selling phones were told they are essential. I work for a power company, but not in operations and I ducked out ASAP mostly because I know how my management is going to treat it until it gets really obvious.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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22Carat



Registered: 11/15/12
Posts: 1,378
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26549257 - 03/21/20 04:35 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Yeah, I’d say that most of the jobs that stick around will be related to the maintenance of necessities: food, water and housing. Those things aren’t even necessarily stable, but they’re the best option. I amount to a floor manager at a grocery store, but I’m paid less. I’m trained to do everything in the store. It’s pretty likely the company will keep me around because I’m very overqualified for what I’m getting paid. They might even end up paying me less, but it’s something.
I agree that other countries could handle this collapse better than the US. I could see this legitimately being the fall of the United States, but that’s a mostly paranoid prediction.
-------------------- 22
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: 22Carat] 2
#26549937 - 03/21/20 10:51 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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At this point government's thoughts are to keep people fed, in their houses, with netflix on for the next year until a vaccine can be made.
They honestly need to consider doing fast track doctor programs where you can hook people up to ventilators, and deal with covid symptoms and complications in a 3 week course for those that have some basic health care experiance. It is going to be more than one wave of the virus and the front line healthcare workers are going to be decimated. These doctors and nurses are marching to their grave and we need someone to fill their shoes for the next wave, even if they aren't nearly as qualified.
It's the equivalent of sending the 16 year old boys to war because fuck, that's all we got. And we need to start thinking that way.
Thank a doctor. Thank a nurse. Stay home and prep for the worst while you hope for the best.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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AtlasDashiell
Stranger
Registered: 03/19/20
Posts: 17
Last seen: 3 years, 28 days
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26552169 - 03/23/20 12:25 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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only in darkness, we can see a star! so we must stay strong and brave!
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Dephect




Registered: 08/10/07
Posts: 1,779
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: AtlasDashiell]
#26562793 - 03/28/20 09:30 AM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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I work for a renewable energy company and was told that we are exempt from the stay at home order so I can at least still make money until it gets extremely bad or we run out of parts because the supply chain is fucked. We still go to peoples homes. We don't go inside of them and we call now rather than knock, but every time I go to a gas station or a place on the way and see the clerks in N95s and latex gloves I cant help but think that I am putting myself at risk or have already contracted the virus. I feel like every canned beverage has it. Also some people suck at answering phones and its kind of awkward to walk into someones backyard without letting them know, so I have had to knock a couple of times and come into contact with commonly touched surfaces.
Testing sucks where I am at and you can't really get tested if you don't have symptoms or a doctors note, most people who don't have a regular doctor can't get a new one because of the pandemic.
My ladies work is shutting down for two weeks. I already have a lot of friends that lost their jobs.
Shits gonna get bad.
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: Dephect]
#26563068 - 03/28/20 12:08 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Wind turbines?
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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D3_Myc
Weeb Trash



Registered: 05/06/18
Posts: 4,399
Loc: Year Zero
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26563103 - 03/28/20 12:22 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Sounds like solar panels
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: This is, imo, gonna be worse than the Depression... [Re: D3_Myc]
#26563273 - 03/28/20 01:42 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Ya fuck. My reading comprehension is fucked when I'm hungover.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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