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today mylove



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26540424 - 03/17/20 09:54 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I've been averaging down on some of my favorites from my watch list with cash I scraped together:
VFV (Canadian equivalent of VOO) - S&P ETF CSU.TO - Constellation software - Canadian software company, I trust management can make good acquisitions in this environment ECL - Ecolab - sanitation materials producer, involved with water too, recession proof characteristics MA - Mastercard - untouchable moat along with V CNR - Canadian National Railway - good proxy for the economy in general, huge moat BSR REIT - apartment REIT in sunbelt region traded in Canada, people always need somewhere to live, was trading somewhat cheap before all this mess. more of a value play HEI - Heico - niche aerospace parts, trust management to come out of this environment stronger. The class A (non-voting) shares of this stock traded at a sometimes very sizable discount to its counterpart for a long time prior to this shakeup, so I took a bet on buying the voting shares with the hope the gap increases again once things get back to normal.
left my existing positions in BRK.B/GOOGL untouched this whole time
majority of cash on hand will go to VFV.
I generally seek companies with long term competitive advantage/moats and/or good record of capital allocation. I realize some of these companies may not have even been hit that hard compared to others but I'm currently investing with a perspective of longevity. I think Heico is still going to take some hits yet. Probably everything will.
Edit- also eyeing IAC, IDXX, LVMH, LBRDK/CHTR
Edited by today mylove (06/05/20 08:24 AM)
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Mojo
Stranger

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove]
#26540531 - 03/17/20 10:52 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Curious whats keeping the more experienced of you away from stocks reliant on the travel industry. The obvious immediate downsides aside, it looks like it could be a decent mid/long term strategy. Buffet bought up Delta Airlines stock, some of these stocks must be attractive to value investors.
NCH, RCL, DAL, LUV, MAR, UBER; have all taken big hits recently. Any opinions on any these options? (Norwegian Cruise Lines, Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, Delta Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Marriott Hotels, Uber)
Not to sound like a broken record; another Buffet stock OXY is at a 20yr low. Any thoughts on some of these long shots in the petroleum industry? (Occidental Petroleum)
I am currently dumping my savings into a brokerage account. Considering many things but I may just dump everything in an S&P500 index.
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today mylove



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Mojo]
#26540598 - 03/17/20 11:27 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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So I'm really not experienced at all- my stock picking activities are pretty much long only and directed towards companies that I think will be around doing their thing 25 years from now.
There are probably things from that mindset that apply to what you're trying to do too, but you also need to be able to identify the true bargains here from sinking ships. I am certainly not qualified to be doing that at all, and it seems risky knowing that I have a glaring blind spot there. It's definitely a high risk, high reward type situation though.
One of the companies I am scaling into is Heico. Heico manufactures aftermarket parts for the airlines. Airlines are able to purchase replacement parts from Heico at a discount to what they originally go for, saving them lots of money and increasing the life span of their fleet. As long as airlines exist, so will Heico, basically. As planes are grounded though, more planes have the opportunity to make it into the garage to get parts replaced that eventually needed to be done anyways. This is something I heard mentioned a couple of weeks back by Heico management and perhaps now the tune has changed given the dire state of travel now, but again, as long as airlines exist, they need parts from Heico.
Ultimately with this type of play you get the exposure, but without the direct risk. IMO I prefer companies that are positioned like this rather than taking the direct risk of looking for these deep value plays. Heico is also not leveraged at all and is positioned to acquire other manufacturers that may be at risk in an environment like this.
Edit- here’s a post that better encapsulates my thinking towards Heico: https://muhammadrazapanju.wixsite.com/website/post/heico-is-a-great-company-is-it-cheap-enough-yet
I've heard BKNG mentioned by a few, and I think geokills mentioned it previously too. No idea personally though.
I also think at a certain point something like the Liberty Media's Formula One FWONA/FWONK tracking stock for example will reach a point where the bargain is too good, where the price has just been obliterated despite a compelling business story still existing there. But I just have no idea. So I've been sticking to "safer", long term plays.
I started researching and investing in stocks the summer of 2018 and before that just owned Berkshire Hathaway. So take what I'm saying with a grain of salt.
Edited by today mylove (03/21/20 12:08 PM)
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ManianFH
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: today mylove] 1
#26541357 - 03/17/20 07:01 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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So much government stimulus action.
Goverment: 'We will pump a shitton of money into bonds, qualitative easing is doubletime! Stocks: Yeah sweet!! Coronavirus fear: Nah, close shops, nobody can work Stocks: Ahhhhh!!!! Government: We will mail checks to everyone and provide massive bailouts!! Stocks: Ok, so buy right?? Coronavirus fear:
I think this is the stage we are in? What happens next? How many new cases are diagnosed, and what is the mortality rate moving forward? I think the future relies on whether the measures taken are working, and in short order. If I could guess, I would assume things go sideways with slight optimism for a short while. If the news is neutral then things might gradually return to normal. If news is bad, maybe hold on and pay close attention to your positions. I dont think its a time to FOMO buy in with all chips, cant imagine things skyrocket back as quickly as they fell (no guarantees), and most likely the risk of things falling further is not worth an all-in mentality approach for the reward of a gradual return to the norm.
Thats just one scenario, the other is that maybe things were inflated to begin with moving into February, and that the point we are currently at is barely a correction relative to where we really should be in a crisis such as this. Just putting food for thought out there, I really have no idea.
Bought AMZN to start the day on the news of their hiring spree. Will probably hold unless there is another major market meltdown, in which case I need to figure out some stops. That is about the extent of exposure I am comfortable with pending more insight from covid reports.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Ice9
3X Ban Lotto Champion



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] 1
#26541560 - 03/17/20 08:38 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Bought quite a bit of Delta stock at 32, will go in for more if it hits 25. As always its a gamble but I like gambling
-------------------- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Brenard Shaw
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ice9]
#26542285 - 03/18/20 08:49 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I wouldn't touch the airlines until they get the bail out money from the government. And they will need to be bailed out. It's possible they re-structure and stock goes to zero, like how New GM shares wiped out Old GM shares. Buying into GM too early means you got left with nothing.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26542412 - 03/18/20 10:18 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I also wouldn't touch the cruise lines. Their business is based on cash flow to service enormous amounts of debt. I was looking at these a week or two ago and Norwegian had something like a 78% debt to equity ratio. That is a recipe for bankruptcy in a situation like this. Carnival is one of the better positioned, but still has a lot of debt. Maybe they get a bailout, but is that really something you want to bet on?
It's really best to just keep sitting on your hands here. There is too much uncertainty and it's not likely to go away for a while. One of the prominent traders on StockMarketMentor said it very well...
Quote:
scottrades said:
"If A stock doesn't meet your criteria, don't lower your standards." For that reason I've been hesitant to put money to work for anything longer than a 59 Min Trade. I've been trading with tight stops for better or worse and my main concern is having money for tomorrow, not worrying about missing a move today.
That said I don't mind a quick flip or day trade here and there but I'm attracted to stocks that meet my standards. Either severely oversold or above the 8EMA/20SMA, good volume and generally holding up well in the market. Clearly defined levels to resistance and a level to watch for a break above. I'm less likely to chase gaps higher in this market for fear of selling into strength. (See: $APRN missed it because I didn't want to chase a gap).
Also, in my opinion... worrying about valuations or % off highs I feel can mess with your thinking and give you a false sense of buying at a good price. A good price is the price that confirms higher prices are coming. That's the price I care about.
For Day Trades, I'm looking for a short-term base (5 min chart) or level to define my risk off of and wanting to see price stay above VWAP.
Until the $VIX Breaks the uptrend and is back below 25 I think day trades/short swings are the way to go. In most cases that I've seen even we get a "Bottom" they are re-tested, giving you plenty of time to enter your favorite stocks and companies you're watching.
So those are my thoughts, I hope they help you stay focused.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26543080 - 03/18/20 05:10 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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If the main concern is having money for tomorrow or next year - you shouldn't be investing. You should be able to live 6-12 months without pay prior to gambling (essentially)
Edited by AroundtheSon (03/18/20 05:11 PM)
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Niffla



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: AroundtheSon]
#26543223 - 03/18/20 06:24 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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--------------------
HAIL OUR NEW OTD KING
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spirit_shadow
Feature not a bug



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Niffla]
#26543484 - 03/18/20 08:40 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Posting so I can read later
-------------------- ERROR 418 IM A TEAPOT.....(this account is automated, all posts related to illegal activities or advice thereof are strictly from numerous online sites and are for informational purposes only)- Circa 2011 Ban lotto
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] 2
#26543541 - 03/18/20 09:34 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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SMM was supposed to have a live session today, but the GoToWebinar network was overloaded (i.e. busted) so he put together a lengthy commentary that he released as a freebie. Check it out, and I'd recommend clicking the fast play button >> underneath the video so you don't have to spend a whole hour listening to it .
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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zoidbergo
Gazes also into you




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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26544481 - 03/19/20 11:21 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I'm thinking of investing in oil or Exxon Mobil. The oil companies have abhorrent practices, but how can it not be a sure thing? Exxon has been around for eternity and I can't imagine things getting so bad that they go bankrupt. The economy is frozen for now, but surely energy consumption will jump right back up once people come out of quarantine right?
I'm thinking 5-10 year terms, not short term. And even if I lose my money, then I get to live in a world where massive multinational energy companies are failing. It's a win-win right? I've traded some bitcoin but never stocks so I'm a bit nervous to get into it, but I have a good bit of savings and wouldn't be hurting if I lost a chunk of them.
I don't think things have bottomed out yet though. Everyone I know seems to to think this will blow over in a week or two even though the experts are saying this is going to last months.
Am I horribly misguided?
Edited by zoidbergo (03/19/20 11:52 AM)
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: zoidbergo]
#26544620 - 03/19/20 12:32 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Me personally, I think that's a fair bet - especially given your timeline. There are some factors that might impact you: renewable energy, saudis, etc.
I took a bite of VDE (an energy etf from vanguard) just so you know - i have skin in the game too.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: zoidbergo]
#26544837 - 03/19/20 02:07 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
zoidbergo said:
I don't think things have bottomed out yet though. Everyone I know seems to to think this will blow over in a week or two even though the experts are saying this is going to last months.
Am I horribly misguided?
I don't think the health concern or economic fallout from the pandemic will blow over for at least another couple of months, however it must be remembered that the market is a forward pricing mechanism, and that it should begin stabilizing and even turning higher well before we are out of the woods with regard to the pandemic.
I saw glimmers of stabilization in the market today, even took UPRO for a spin early on although only bagging a very paltry profit, any profit in this market feels like a great success. The fairly violent drop in the VIX is encouraging, however the weak close and failure to make higher daily highs in the major indices assuredly merits continued caution. I would not be surprised to see a move higher tomorrow, but volatility is still far too elevated to be comfortable holding large trading positions overnight, let alone over the weekend. Nevertheless, we may see some decent opportunities for day trades tomorrow.
For those quick and nimble, keep NUGT on your screen. It has been a huge mover, albeit mostly to the downside of late, and is testing its lows again. STOR, which I highlighted earlier this week, put in a pretty big crescendo low today. I would expect the bottom is in on this one and it could be a good income yielding asset for longer term portfolios full of patient money.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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pslyke
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26545450 - 03/19/20 08:20 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Posting so I can read/participate later
-------------------- "What appears impenetrable to us does exist, manifesting itself in the deepest wisdom and the most radiant beauty" Einstein "The conservatives of 70 years ago would be outraged at what has come to pass. It embodies everything they took up arms for to defeat"Asante
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See



Registered: 01/11/07
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Re: Invite Link (2 free stocks) [Re: geokills]
#26545581 - 03/19/20 09:46 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Vanguard has free trades now too; reliable "vendor". Not sure what your particular needs are - but the interface is easy, and they have been around a long time (you need not worry about accessing your money).
Cheers
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: zoidbergo]
#26546280 - 03/20/20 09:56 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
zoidbergo said: I'm thinking of investing in oil or Exxon Mobil. The oil companies have abhorrent practices, but how can it not be a sure thing? Exxon has been around for eternity and I can't imagine things getting so bad that they go bankrupt. The economy is frozen for now, but surely energy consumption will jump right back up once people come out of quarantine right?
I've been thinking about this sector. It is just really in a bad spot right now, with two factors contributing to its suffering.- No agreement amongst the cartels (OPEC, et al) as to production flow, thereby creating an oversupply/glut of oil.
- Economic stagnation due to global virus related shutdowns that will persist for an undetermined time.
These are HUGE headwinds. While there will very likely be some of the integrated majors, who are able to weather this storm, there will also likely be a lot of bankruptcy in the sector. Rigs are "stacking", shutting down with no outlook on when they may re-open. Exploratory drilling and new wells? Forget about it. Couple this with the push toward renewables that has been gathering momentum on both social and policy levels, and oil is not a very exciting place to be right now. That being said, oil will still be with us for the foreseeable future, and yes I do believe you can pick away a little bit at some of the major companies that, while they will undoubtedly suffer now, will probably still be here a decade later. XOM, SLB, CVX, HAL, these are probably companies you can start nibbling at.
I just put on a small size bull call spread today in fact, buying the Jan 2022 $5 calls on HAL and selling the Jan 2022 $10 calls to finance them, for a net debit of $0.98. That's a $0.98 risk for a $4.02 reward if HAL is over $10 by January 2022. I think that's a decent bet to take, but I'm still keeping the position small, because I don't want to look at this position in a month or two should HAL fall another 50% to $2.50 and regret having overexposed myself when the risks are so high and largely unknown. On that note, I have a bid out for a HAL Jan 2022 $3/$10 bull call spread at a net debit of $1. That risks $1 for $6 of upside if HAL is above $10 by January 2022.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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ManianFH
living in perverty



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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26553437 - 03/23/20 04:27 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Wondering how people here feel the QE and Stimulus bill will affect the market in the shortterm. I would expect things to bump up if the bipartisan deal passes, but if Unlimited QE cant change sentiment I am not sure what else will.
I read something like 650 billion dollars a week in bonds purchases.. That is the most ever for a QE program right?
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26554020 - 03/23/20 09:07 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Seems like the Fed left the asset purchase option open ended, indicating that they will do whatever they deem necessary without explicit limitation. That level of policy support would definitely be breaking new ground, however it doesn't really do anything to solve the fundamental issue of the virus which is creating all of the uncertainty.
The market is stretched to the downside however, and I would suspect we will see some sort of rally soon, however I think it will be fast, furious and ultimately short lived, as there is a lot of resistance overhead, full of those who will be looking for any strength to sell into as this cloud of uncertainty is not likely to go away very soon.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Ahab McBathsalts
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26554032 - 03/23/20 09:13 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I don't know that america is ready for a 30% unemployment rate. The Fed might have open taps and can promise as much liquidity as needed, but I don't know that they have enough for this.
It's like 10% of GDP they need to throw at this just to keep it going to July, and they might need to throw another 5%. And not this year's GDP, like last year's.
A 2 trillion dollar stimulus is a good starting point, but like the deficit is going to be 25% or more. It's going to be absolutely insane this year.
The Fed is openly embracing Modern Monetary Theory and you can't ever close that door. It might lead to actual inflation though. Throwing money at the people instead of just financial markets could solve the decade's old no-inflation problem.
I also expect a bounce to the upside soon, at least temporarily.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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