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Offlinekikthefreak
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Registered: 05/18/13
Posts: 60
Last seen: 2 years, 10 months
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: psi]
    #26541626 - 03/17/20 09:17 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

psi said:
Quote:

kikthefreak said:
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.8.2000171?fbclid=IwAR1yaTgICfc15rO6mkI90pBb45j1EnT87KA5p9gcfnixqS%20ciJWsFeQb4j5I

This lab in France has tested over 5000 samples and not one had SARS-CoV-2. They did however find 373 other coronaviruses as well as other respiratory virus that routinely kill people all over the world.





It's worth noting that you did ultimately come up with something substantial to support what you claimed earlier about test reliability. Looks like a legit scientific journal and they thought the letter was credible enough to publish. Though as a letter to the editor it presumably was not peer reviewed.




Here's a lot more info with citations if you really want to dig into it:

https://www.greenmedinfo.com/blog/does-2019-coronavirus-exist


--------------------
“If you are depressed you are living in the past.
If you are anxious you are living in the future.
If you are at peace you are living in the present.”

                                          ― Lao Tzu


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Onlinekoods
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Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,049
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 9 minutes, 31 seconds
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: Texas Honey Badger]
    #26541668 - 03/17/20 09:41 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Spicemaster said:
Quote:

koods said:
So I’m sitting here in the parking lot of Home Depot and I’m watching one of the president’s helicopters circle Walter Reed medical center 🤔



Was there 3 of them?




No. Just one. I’ve seen this before. They drive the president and have a helicopter backup. There’s usually two or three when heading to camp David.

NIH is across the street and I was observing this from two miles away, so he or pence could have been at NIH for some reason.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Onlinekoods
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Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: psi] * 1
    #26541691 - 03/17/20 09:53 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

psi said:
Quote:

kikthefreak said:
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.8.2000171?fbclid=IwAR1yaTgICfc15rO6mkI90pBb45j1EnT87KA5p9gcfnixqS%20ciJWsFeQb4j5I

This lab in France has tested over 5000 samples and not one had SARS-CoV-2. They did however find 373 other coronaviruses as well as other respiratory virus that routinely kill people all over the world.





It's worth noting that you did ultimately come up with something substantial to support what you claimed earlier about test reliability. Looks like a legit scientific journal and they thought the letter was credible enough to publish. Though as a letter to the editor it presumably was not peer reviewed.




That letter makes no claims about rest reliabllty, and they are not questioning the results of the tests they analyzed. They are questioning whether the fear of importing the virus into France was overblown because the tests they analyzed did not have any novel coronavirus.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Invisiblekoraks
Registered: 06/02/03
Posts: 26,670
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: kikthefreak] * 2
    #26541917 - 03/18/20 01:18 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

kikthefreak said:
Quote:

ShroomerInTheRye said:
They did tho..

From the medicinenet article...
"False negatives comprised just 3% of the patient population in this study. However, failure to detect a small number of cases of the potentially deadly viral infection may have wide-ranging effects for patients and others who may become infected."

I mean, at this point, you're just rejecting facts in the face of facts.




I said false positives not false negatives.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.8.2000171?fbclid=IwAR1yaTgICfc15rO6mkI90pBb45j1EnT87KA5p9gcfnixqS%20ciJWsFeQb4j5I

This lab in France has tested over 5000 samples and not one had SARS-CoV-2. They did however find 373 other coronaviruses as well as other respiratory virus that routinely kill people all over the world. 

It's so odd that you get mobbed when you ask for proof. Especially when it comes to something so serious... People are strange...



So for sake of the argument, let's assume that you are right and there's a huge problem with the tests in terms of specificity, to the extent that they give almost all false positives (low specificity). The first problem is that you contradict yourself in the post quoted above, where you rely on an institute that allegedly performed testing and found no positives, which would imply that their test is either perfect, or suffers from the exact opposite problem of the other tests in use, i.e. unusably low sensitivity. But let's step aside that issue as well.

Then we're still left with an already big and growing number of cases that for some, unexplained reason suffer in large numbers from ARDS - much larger numbers than we normally get with influenza at this time of the year. Even if it were not SARS-CoV-2, then something else is causing this problem.

Sure, you could argue that there are in fact two problems going on: (1) fundamentally flawed SARS-CoV-2 test that suffer from phenomenally low specificity and (2) a mutation of a different virus that causes the symptoms and epidemiology we're seeing. I would then argue that Occam's Razor should be regarded; how likely is it that several institutes have come up with SARS-CoV-2 tests that ALL suffer form the same specificity problem, and that seriously afflicted patients occur in these numbers without a credible rival explanation and ALL exhibit symptoms that are not treatable as we have been treating viral infections for decades? Add to this that we do know for sure that SARS-CoV-2 exists, it has been observed in the Wuhan patients with other methods than the existing tests (e.g. SEM imaging, RNA sequencing) and elsewhere and is likely to explain the epidemiology we're witnessing.

And even if this is one gigantic fluke (which, again, is unlikely to the point of being ridiculous), the measures of social distancing would still be an appropriate choice given that the source of the problems would then be a similar viral infection.

Using an unsupported argument about specificity problems with the test used to draw into doubt what we're observing through several different methods is just very sloppy and irrational reasoning. It simply doesn't add up.


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OnlineLogicaL ChaosM
Ascension Energy & Alien UFOs
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Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 05/12/07
Posts: 69,332
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Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: kikthefreak] * 2
    #26541927 - 03/18/20 01:46 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Italy definitely underestimated the Coronavirus and downplayed it. Now they are in a world of hurt. From Feb 23rd: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/europe/italy-novel-coronavirus-spike-intl/index.html

Is testing as easy as? Collect spit, look under microscope, see Coronavirus.


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OfflinePumpJackTeX
livin life
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Registered: 05/26/08
Posts: 3,951
Loc: California Flag
Last seen: 10 months, 29 days
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: LogicaL Chaos]
    #26542127 - 03/18/20 07:09 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

LogicaL Chaos said:
Italy definitely underestimated the Coronavirus and downplayed it. Now they are in a world of hurt. From Feb 23rd: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/europe/italy-novel-coronavirus-spike-intl/index.html

Is testing as easy as? Collect spit, look under microscope, see Coronavirus.




We are a few days behind Italy.


--------------------
Life. 2008

Ascension Energy | UFOs | 2021


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InvisibleAsante
Mage
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Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: LogicaL Chaos] * 1
    #26542132 - 03/18/20 07:12 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

LogicaL Chaos said:

Is testing as easy as? Collect spit, look under microscope, see Coronavirus.




From what I heard from my brother in Houston, the idea of the drive through test is that they stick a qtip in yout nose and take a mouth swab and analyze that.


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


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OnlineLogicaL ChaosM
Ascension Energy & Alien UFOs
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Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: Asante]
    #26542135 - 03/18/20 07:14 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Ah i see. :thumbup:

Idk PumpJack, thats a bit of a stretch. We'll see.


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OfflinePumpJackTeX
livin life
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Registered: 05/26/08
Posts: 3,951
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Last seen: 10 months, 29 days
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: LogicaL Chaos]
    #26542138 - 03/18/20 07:15 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Numbers dont lie


--------------------
Life. 2008

Ascension Energy | UFOs | 2021


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InvisibleInfiniteDreams
Male

Registered: 10/25/19
Posts: 1,224
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: PumpJackTeX]
    #26542160 - 03/18/20 07:36 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

PumpJackTeX said:
Numbers dont lie




But people use numbers to misrepresent and lie all the time.


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OnlineLogicaL ChaosM
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Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: PumpJackTeX]
    #26542168 - 03/18/20 07:41 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Italy has over 10,000 cases: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/number-coronavirus-cases-rises-italy-hit-hard/story?id=69513697

Currently, the US has about 4,600: https://people.com/health/us-coronavirus-cases-map/

To have that big of a jump in a couple days isnt likely. Maybe in a week.


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OfflinePumpJackTeX
livin life
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Registered: 05/26/08
Posts: 3,951
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Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: LogicaL Chaos]
    #26542184 - 03/18/20 07:54 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

We are not testing like we should be.

The govornor said there could be thousands of cases in CO alone.

We have community spread here.


--------------------
Life. 2008

Ascension Energy | UFOs | 2021


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InvisibleAsante
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Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: PumpJackTeX] * 2
    #26542204 - 03/18/20 08:05 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

You had 8 weeks of community spread under the radar in the US.

Its literally possible that there are more undocumented cases in the US than documented cases worldwide.


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


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Offlinejoodasgasoline
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Registered: 03/17/20
Posts: 58
Last seen: 3 years, 7 months
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: LogicaL Chaos] * 1
    #26542212 - 03/18/20 08:11 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

LogicaL Chaos said:
Italy has over 10,000 cases: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/number-coronavirus-cases-rises-italy-hit-hard/story?id=69513697

Currently, the US has about 4,600: https://people.com/health/us-coronavirus-cases-map/

To have that big of a jump in a couple days isnt likely. Maybe in a week.



Pretty old news you're reading there. Italy has 31k confirmed cases.


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OfflinePrimal Matter
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Registered: 10/27/19
Posts: 487
Loc: Brisbane Flag
Last seen: 1 year, 10 months
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: joodasgasoline]
    #26542221 - 03/18/20 08:16 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)



--------------------
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FTX referral


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OfflinePumpJackTeX
livin life
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Registered: 05/26/08
Posts: 3,951
Loc: California Flag
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Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: Asante]
    #26542223 - 03/18/20 08:16 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
You had 8 weeks of community spread under the radar in the US.

Its literally possible that there are more undocumented cases in the US than documented cases worldwide.





We are the best at EVERYTHING

Anything Italy can do WE can do BETTER!


--------------------
Life. 2008

Ascension Energy | UFOs | 2021


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InvisibleAsante
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Posts: 86,795
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: PumpJackTeX] * 1
    #26542242 - 03/18/20 08:28 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)



--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


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Invisiblesh4d0ws
LSx
I'm a teapot User Gallery

Registered: 02/26/08
Posts: 12,086
Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: LogicaL Chaos] * 1
    #26542249 - 03/18/20 08:31 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

LogicaL Chaos said:
Italy has over 10,000 cases: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/number-coronavirus-cases-rises-italy-hit-hard/story?id=69513697

Currently, the US has about 4,600: https://people.com/health/us-coronavirus-cases-map/

To have that big of a jump in a couple days isnt likely. Maybe in a week.






USA has probably like over 6500 or 7000 now


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6



6,496


The CDC fucking blows and thats where the other 4K number is from I think, John Hopkins and worldometer got the real shit


--------------------


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Offlinejoodasgasoline
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Registered: 03/17/20
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Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: sh4d0ws]
    #26542522 - 03/18/20 11:27 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)


475 Italians died today.


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Offlinekikthefreak
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Registered: 05/18/13
Posts: 60
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Re: Overblown coronavirus??? [Re: koraks]
    #26542638 - 03/18/20 12:50 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koraks said:
Quote:

kikthefreak said:
Quote:

ShroomerInTheRye said:
They did tho..

From the medicinenet article...
"False negatives comprised just 3% of the patient population in this study. However, failure to detect a small number of cases of the potentially deadly viral infection may have wide-ranging effects for patients and others who may become infected."

I mean, at this point, you're just rejecting facts in the face of facts.




I said false positives not false negatives.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.8.2000171?fbclid=IwAR1yaTgICfc15rO6mkI90pBb45j1EnT87KA5p9gcfnixqS%20ciJWsFeQb4j5I

This lab in France has tested over 5000 samples and not one had SARS-CoV-2. They did however find 373 other coronaviruses as well as other respiratory virus that routinely kill people all over the world. 

It's so odd that you get mobbed when you ask for proof. Especially when it comes to something so serious... People are strange...



So for sake of the argument, let's assume that you are right and there's a huge problem with the tests in terms of specificity, to the extent that they give almost all false positives (low specificity). The first problem is that you contradict yourself in the post quoted above, where you rely on an institute that allegedly performed testing and found no positives, which would imply that their test is either perfect, or suffers from the exact opposite problem of the other tests in use, i.e. unusably low sensitivity. But let's step aside that issue as well.

Then we're still left with an already big and growing number of cases that for some, unexplained reason suffer in large numbers from ARDS - much larger numbers than we normally get with influenza at this time of the year. Even if it were not SARS-CoV-2, then something else is causing this problem.

Sure, you could argue that there are in fact two problems going on: (1) fundamentally flawed SARS-CoV-2 test that suffer from phenomenally low specificity and (2) a mutation of a different virus that causes the symptoms and epidemiology we're seeing. I would then argue that Occam's Razor should be regarded; how likely is it that several institutes have come up with SARS-CoV-2 tests that ALL suffer form the same specificity problem, and that seriously afflicted patients occur in these numbers without a credible rival explanation and ALL exhibit symptoms that are not treatable as we have been treating viral infections for decades? Add to this that we do know for sure that SARS-CoV-2 exists, it has been observed in the Wuhan patients with other methods than the existing tests (e.g. SEM imaging, RNA sequencing) and elsewhere and is likely to explain the epidemiology we're witnessing.

And even if this is one gigantic fluke (which, again, is unlikely to the point of being ridiculous), the measures of social distancing would still be an appropriate choice given that the source of the problems would then be a similar viral infection.

Using an unsupported argument about specificity problems with the test used to draw into doubt what we're observing through several different methods is just very sloppy and irrational reasoning. It simply doesn't add up.





If everyone used SEM imaging on every case, that would be fantastic. Unfortunately that is not the case for logistical reasons.

We agree there are problems with RNA sequencing both in terms of false positives AND false negatives.

And we agree that what we are seeing is on par to what you normally see during flu season.

There are many coronaviruses and other respiratory virus that produce the same symptoms and epidomology. To attribute a death or a "confirmed" case specifically to SARS-CoV-2, without knowing definitely is very sloppy and irresponsible.


--------------------
“If you are depressed you are living in the past.
If you are anxious you are living in the future.
If you are at peace you are living in the present.”

                                          ― Lao Tzu


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