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OnlineBaby_Hitler
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: koraks]
    #26539824 - 03/17/20 01:35 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I have to wonder where this is all going. What will this pandemic be like 3 years from now? Will everything go back to normal, or will it be the end of people living to 70+ years of age? Will the vaccines be enough to provide herd immunity to the point that it dies out, or becomes rare?

So much uncertainty about the future right now.


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Offlineviraldrome
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: koraks]
    #26539827 - 03/17/20 01:42 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I get a lot of stuff in the mail and wonder how long mail service will be able continue. Those mailmen go in a 100 buildings a day, risking exposure in each one, I would be calling in sick if that was me.


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Lysergamides I have tried so far: 1P-LSD, 1cP-LSD, ALD-52, AL-LAD, LSZ, ETH-LAD, MIPLA, EIPLA, 1cP-AL-LAD


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Invisiblesh4d0ws
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: viraldrome]
    #26539828 - 03/17/20 01:43 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I've been wondering that too. I have kratom showing up tomorrow and 30 bricks of coir on wednesday for cultivation purposes

After that I don't mind :lol: I made sure to stock up on weed :thumbup:


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InvisibleAmanita86
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: sh4d0ws]
    #26539833 - 03/17/20 01:56 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I saw someone post something on somewhere in Canada they suspended the mail.  I don’t know the details of it though.  I’d say if you have anything you can’t do without it may be smart to stock up a little.


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: koraks] * 3
    #26539834 - 03/17/20 01:57 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

With aggressive and liberal testing, we could keep infections at a slow simmer until we get a vaccine.

The fact that the feds are now telling us if you are sick at all you need to quarantine for 14 days is an admission that most sick people will never get tested. They will never know if they had a cold, the flu or covid. Every cold has to be assumed to be covid because if you guess wrong then you start a new chain of cases growing exponentially.

We have had to shut down everything because we have completely failed at surveillance through testing. The situation is so absurd. The criteria to get tested is still symptoms with known contact or travel history. Three months in and we still are completely blind about community spread because the current testing criteria is not capable of detecting cases in people without known risky exposures. This is honestly one of the most consequential failures of government in our lifetimes.

If we had been aggressively testing like South Korea and Japan and Singapore, we could have avoided our current fate.

Just think about the power knowing for sure if your cold is covid or just the cold. When you’re sick it means the difference between quarantine and freedom and when you recover it means a peace of mind that you don’t have to personally worry about the virus anymore. That you can have exposures without having to quarantine. It means you can take care of covid patients. It means you know you aren’t going to spread the disease by accident. Instead most of us will never know if we are immune and we’ll be on edge for a long time:


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Invisiblekoraks
Registered: 06/02/03
Posts: 26,689
Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: sh4d0ws]
    #26539835 - 03/17/20 01:57 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

@imachavel
Sure mate, have it your way. Northern Italy is a third world country and the problem is just that healthy people are checking into hospitals which brings them to their knees. Totally.

Yes, HIV is a real problem.
Yes, we have had other pandemics in the past.
Yes, the economy is affected substantially and that is worrying, and we need to somehow balance between public health and economic performance.

None of this means we don't need to respond to this virus thing. Letting it run free will indeed create a situation very much like the Spanish flu. But at least the HIV pandemic will look a little less serious and acute by then. Yay!


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: koraks]
    #26539854 - 03/17/20 02:30 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Exactly. I have not cherry picked a damn thing for shit. I have said exactly what you are saying. 80% of people experience mild symptoms. This is not the spanish flu.




Why are you assuming most people who got the Spanish flu didn’t have mild symptoms? The fact is for a large majority of people with the Spanish flu, it was mild. Do you think they did a better job of identifying mild cases of the flu in 1918 than we are doing for covid in 2020?

The scale of deaths we are seeing in Italy are quite analogous to what happened during the Spanish flu.

You’re right covid is not the Spanish flu. It could be worse. If covid happened in 1918 without advanced technology, it would be killing 8-10% of patients. The Spanish flu was also not a novel virus. It was a mutated version of a virus that had been endemic in the population for millennia. A lot of people had some immunity to the Spanish flu. The Spanish flu had no chance of infecting as much of the population as covid does.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Baby_Hitler] * 2
    #26539859 - 03/17/20 02:35 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Baby_Hitler said:
I have to wonder where this is all going. What will this pandemic be like 3 years from now? Will everything go back to normal, or will it be the end of people living to 70+ years of age? Will the vaccines be enough to provide herd immunity to the point that it dies out, or becomes rare?

So much uncertainty about the future right now.




It will become an endemic virus that mainly infects children because older people will have immunity.  That’s there reason there are so many diseases that seem to affect children more than adults. Like chickenpox. The only hosts they are able to infect are the ones who weren’t alive the last time the virus made its rounds through society.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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InvisibleCrazy_Horse
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: koods] * 1
    #26539913 - 03/17/20 04:10 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Tell us what it was like when polio was around.


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Invisiblehummingbird

Registered: 06/29/14
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Crazy_Horse] * 2
    #26539929 - 03/17/20 04:42 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

There's certainly economic/political motives behind the global panic over this. China and Russia have been trying to find an alternative to the petrodollar for awhile. Russia was fucking with the Saudis and recently lowered its oil prices to encourage sales to countries that may not pay with dollars. We aren't going to easily bully or go to war with Russia like other countries who tried that (Iraq, Libya, etc.)...but all of a sudden...covid19 hits and now there's massive travel restrictions, industry is dialed down many places...and not nearly as much oil is being bought because of it. Interesting...

Not to mention the fake American economy being propped up with for years, and its new illusion of greatness with Cheeto jesus at the helm. The cost to income ratio has been absolutely fucked lately, along with the housing market. With everyone scared of death, they are distracted as global markets crash and jobs are being slashed...things a lot of people had feared would happen soon anyways. All the while people are panic buying and spending tons of money building toilet paper castles and massive amounts of cleaning supplies and food. Record sales in stores many places. Scared people make great consumers...and the profits for the medical industries will be enormous too.

I'm not saying we should carelessly ignore the sicknesses going around, and my heart goes to those who have or will lose a loved one to this....but the level of hysteria surrounding a lot of this seems ridiculous, and the numbers aren't always consistent or likely to be overall accurate. I wouldn't be surprised if millions have already had this virus and recovered, but who really knows. We don't know anything but what we are told. Information is so easy to manipulate nowadays too.

Its going to be ok. We are all in this together, and good things will come of this in the end.


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Invisiblehummingbird

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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: koods]
    #26539946 - 03/17/20 05:03 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

Baby_Hitler said:
I have to wonder where this is all going. What will this pandemic be like 3 years from now? Will everything go back to normal, or will it be the end of people living to 70+ years of age? Will the vaccines be enough to provide herd immunity to the point that it dies out, or becomes rare?

So much uncertainty about the future right now.




It will become an endemic virus that mainly infects children because older people will have immunity.  That’s there reason there are so many diseases that seem to affect children more than adults. Like chickenpox. The only hosts they are able to infect are the ones who weren’t alive the last time the virus made its rounds through society.





What's strange about covid, is it doesn't seem to affect children nearly as much as adults...except the up to 20% or so reported adult cases that are asymptomatic or extremely mild I guess. There's cases reported of babies less than a month old recovering very well from it...


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: koods] * 1
    #26539984 - 03/17/20 05:34 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:

The reason the world is losing its mind is that without mitigation covid will kiill hundreds of millions of people.





And it remains to be seen whether mitigation will ecven work in most cases.


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Invisiblekoraks
Registered: 06/02/03
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante] * 1
    #26539999 - 03/17/20 05:41 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

The argument that there's an economic motive behind the social response to coronavirus is simply ludicrous. There's no economic gain in it for anyone, either in the short or the long term.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: koraks] * 1
    #26540031 - 03/17/20 06:13 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Italy, population 60 million, has more than 1/3 the cases and 2/3 of the deaths of China, population 1.435 billion.

If the world did like Italy, the status quo now in the early pandemic would be 3.64 million infected and 277,000 dead.

But! People assume an 80% infection rate will be realized.
If so, and it would happen the Italian way, we'd have 6.24 billion infected and 475 million dead.

Most countries in the world havent got anywhere near the first woirld status of the healthcare system and degree of organization Italy has.



In the Sophia Children's Hospital of Rotterdam theres a 16yo boy being held in an artificial coma, on a respiratior, fighting for his life. He was NOT a smoker.
It isnt just "old people", in Holland the median age for the ICU due to corona is 50, but the median age of the COUNTRY is 43, which means that the AVERAGE age difference between the ICU group and the nation is only 7 years apart.

EVERYBODY is getting sick.



I don't think this smoothening the curve will havge much effect. I still think the disease will be fulminant and that there will be a large peak in most countries and high death rates.


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


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Invisiblekoraks
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante] * 3
    #26540056 - 03/17/20 06:34 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
I don't think this smoothening the curve will havge much effect.



Yes, it will. It already does. If we hadn't done anything, ICU's in The Netherlands would be overwhelmed already. Currently, they're coping, and to keep it that way, it's important to keep doing what we're doing, which is limiting the spread.

Of course, there are caveats. The first is that even if the approach is successful, it requires discipline. This discipline involves:

* maintaining the social distancing practices and develop them further so they strike a balance between limiting contagion and allowing as much functioning of the economy as possible.

* finding ways to mitigate the impact of damage to the economy; i.e. supporting those who are left without income in the following weeks and seeing if we can finance essentially healthy companies that are now bearing the financial brunt of the policy interventions, but also (and more importantly) develop/use alternatives to previous working methods so that as many as possible lines of business can keep operating. The latter will become important in the next few weeks, when we will have to define policies that should enable companies to pick up production once again.

* limit disturbance to global markets; i.e. no hoarding/stockpiling where it is not absolutely necessary (there is currently no place where this applies), as this further disrupts global markets (particularly for food and healthcare products), leaving consumers in the West with unused stockpiles while depriving developing nations of crucial commodities in the following weeks and months.

The challenge of nations with less developed healthcare systems than our own is to find that difficult balance for themselves between controlled virus spread and a functioning society, as they currently seem mutually exclusive goals. The allowable rate of contagion is basically defined by (1) the capacity of the healthcare system and (2) the number of deaths and permanently disabled that a society is willing to accept. This means that if other nations also want to limit the number of deaths/disabled to the bare minimum, they may have to opt for more strict and longer lasting social distancing policies. The essential challenges that they face will be the same as in other, more fortunate nations, i.e. the need for enduring discipline.

The curve smoothing thing is essentially the most sane policy right now. It can work if we pull together.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: koraks] * 1
    #26540068 - 03/17/20 06:40 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

koraks said:
Quote:

Asante said:
I don't think this smoothening the curve will havge much effect.



Yes, it will. It already does. If we hadn't done anything, ICU's in The Netherlands would be overwhelmed already. Currently, they're coping, and to keep it that way, it's important to keep doing what we're doing, which is limiting the spread.

Of course, there are caveats. The first is that even if the approach is successful, it requires discipline. This discipline involves:

* maintaining the social distancing practices and develop them further so they strike a balance between limiting contagion and allowing as much functioning of the economy as possible.

* finding ways to mitigate the impact of damage to the economy; i.e. supporting those who are left without income in the following weeks and seeing if we can finance essentially healthy companies that are now bearing the financial brunt of the policy interventions, but also (and more importantly) develop/use alternatives to previous working methods so that as many as possible lines of business can keep operating. The latter will become important in the next few weeks, when we will have to define policies that should enable companies to pick up production once again.

* limit disturbance to global markets; i.e. no hoarding/stockpiling where it is not absolutely necessary (there is currently no place where this applies), as this further disrupts global markets (particularly for food and healthcare products), leaving consumers in the West with unused stockpiles while depriving developing nations of crucial commodities in the following weeks and months.

The challenge of nations with less developed healthcare systems than our own is to find that difficult balance for themselves between controlled virus spread and a functioning society, as they currently seem mutually exclusive goals. The allowable rate of contagion is basically defined by (1) the capacity of the healthcare system and (2) the number of deaths and permanently disabled that a society is willing to accept. This means that if other nations also want to limit the number of deaths/disabled to the bare minimum, they may have to opt for more strict and longer lasting social distancing policies. The essential challenges that they face will be the same as in other, more fortunate nations, i.e. the need for enduring discipline.

The curve smoothing thing is essentially the most sane policy right now. It can work if we pull together.





Koraks, we and China cant keep this level of social distancing up. Schools cant stay closed for a year, horeca ncant be closed for a year. Well they can but it costs money that the government isnt willing to spend. Our PM let it be known: lets just everybody get sick and get it over with instead of doing anything in our power to make it to the vaccine. The government and the people will get lax and an Italy and Beyond Italy will be the result.


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante] * 1
    #26540100 - 03/17/20 07:02 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

There are roughly 2 people in this thread:

-people who lament empty storeshelves.

-people who will receive an additional bag of 22lbs red lentils in the mail today :stirthepot:

You're on the www, where plenty of capacity webstores have no problem whatsoever with empty storeshelves. The lentils are from a farmers collective. Cheaper than in the supermarket AND no postage cost for a 10kg quantity.

They sell right from the silo, 2019 harvest


Lentils are like 22% protein, half that of beef.


--------------------
Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


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Invisiblekoraks
Registered: 06/02/03
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante] * 1
    #26540101 - 03/17/20 07:03 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
Koraks, we and China cant keep this level of social distancing up. Schools cant stay closed for a year, horeca ncant be closed for a year. Well they can but it costs money that the government isnt willing to spend. Our PM let it be known: lets just everybody get sick and get it over with instead of doing anything in our power to make it to the vaccine. The government and the people will get lax and an Italy and Beyond Italy will be the result.



You're missing the middle scenario. Which is we DO practice social distancing for a few months, with some alterations in mode and scope as time progresses, and over that period of time, indeed the majority of the population will get sick and most of them will recover.


It's easy to think in extremes and 'all or nothing' scenarios, but that is exactly what you should not be doing. Not you, and not any of us. We'll have to walk a narrow ridge, which we can do. There is some leeway for clowns who will bounce about no matter what, who will stock their houses with rice & lentils or who will refuse to scale down or cease their business operations for some time. But there's not all that much leeway, and that means that the rest of the population will have to join in the balancing act.

And that balancing act starts with acknowledging that it's necessary and feasible. I know for sure you can do it. Are you willing to show others how you manage? Cause that would help.


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Invisiblekoraks
Registered: 06/02/03
Posts: 26,689
Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante] * 2
    #26540104 - 03/17/20 07:05 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
There are roughly 2 people in this thread:

-people who lament empty storeshelves.

-people who will receive an additional bag of 22lbs red lentils in the mail today :stirthepot:




Most people in this thread don't even mention store shelves. Enjoy your lentils. If you must hoard, please do so with sanity and mostly moderation. Realize well that your 22lbs of lentils, even if they originate from a local farm, do subtract from the total amount of lentils available on the world market. If the time comes, please consider sharing them with those who need them harder than you do. There may be people in that position, which will not even be the result of their refusal to hoard at this moment.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: koraks]
    #26540110 - 03/17/20 07:09 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I honestly hope that will happen, but with a R0 of 6 and so many people being so damn indifferent about this I don't think it will.

Aforementioned nurse will indeed start working right off the plane from spain. I made a case for self isolation because of having come from a risk flight from a risk country but got interrupted by the other nurse saying "no need to worry just wash your hands"  :banghead:

If she has it she's going to knock out her ward.

Well she ain't visiting me, I proclaimed self quarantaine because I have a bunch of symptoms AND prefer to receive no visits from potential carriers for now.


Quote:

Most people in this thread don't even mention store shelves.




I dropped that from another thread into here to alert people to the fact that even if their community store shelves are empty, online theres stores often by local farmers who deliver good foods in 10-50lbs bags at a discount.
A community service.


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higher knowledge starts here


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