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Offlinechristopera
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The Federal Reserve
    #26537461 - 03/15/20 08:51 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

0% interest incoming.

Will qman be correct in his prediction of negative rates?

100% chance of Monday being insane! Buckle up folks!


--------------------
Enjoy the process of your search without succumbing to the pressure of the result.

A Dorito is pizza, change my mind.

Bank and Union with The Shroomery at the Zuul on The internet - now with %'s and things

I’m sorry it had to be me.


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Invisibleevlyshrooms
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: christopera]
    #26537522 - 03/15/20 09:14 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Oh Lordy my heart isn't ready


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Invisiblesh4d0ws
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: evlyshrooms]
    #26537697 - 03/16/20 12:17 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

shit bout to hit the muthafuckin fan folks


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Invisiblesh4d0ws
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: sh4d0ws]
    #26537700 - 03/16/20 12:19 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Dow futures plunge 1,000 points after Fed cuts interest rate to zero

&

Quote:

Markets in Asia Pacific continued their declines on Monday despite the region's central banks announcing various measures to support the economy.




:wayshegoes:


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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: evlyshrooms]
    #26537708 - 03/16/20 12:25 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Can you imagine if trump had gotten his way demanding for the past year that the fed drop rates like they’ve done during this crisis? Negative rates is not a legitimate monetary policy


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: sh4d0ws]
    #26537712 - 03/16/20 12:30 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

sh4d0ws said:
Dow futures plunge 1,000 points after Fed cuts interest rate to zero

&

Quote:

Markets in Asia Pacific continued their declines on Monday despite the region's central banks announcing various measures to support the economy.




:wayshegoes:



The stock market is not tanking because of fundamental monetary issues in the economy. It’s tanking becasue there’s a fucking pandemic and business activity around the world has collapsed. Lowering interest rates isn’t going to change the behavior of a virus. The reason the market doesn’t like it is because it is an admission by the people who run the economy that the economy is fucked.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Offlinechristopera
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: koods]
    #26538184 - 03/16/20 09:06 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I think the real question at this point is what will the rebound be like?

I have many friends who are looking at going wage-less for the next week or two. It's hard to recover an economy when everyone is broke, and low gas prices and tax breaks don't help broke people.


--------------------
Enjoy the process of your search without succumbing to the pressure of the result.

A Dorito is pizza, change my mind.

Bank and Union with The Shroomery at the Zuul on The internet - now with %'s and things

I’m sorry it had to be me.


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: koods]
    #26538187 - 03/16/20 09:07 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Thank god for the virus, now I can refi my house to a lower interest rate. But honestly, the Fed makes calls and policies that our elected representatives would never be able to make (they are weak in the belly). Koods is right, the tool chest would be more depleted if Trump got every reduction he cries for.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: christopera] * 1
    #26538199 - 03/16/20 09:15 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Looks like our economy is so dialed in, that any disruption fucks it up. GRANTED, this is a big deal.These muti-billion corps have no rainy day fund? Same with the populace, paycheck to paycheck.

I dont make that much coin, but was taught to pay myself first from a paycheck. 8% goes to savings. As a country we really need to have some sort of financial education coupled with a little stronger regulations (like liquidity requirements for banks and corporations) How many bailouts will we see?


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


Edited by SirTripAlot (03/16/20 09:15 AM)


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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: christopera]
    #26538224 - 03/16/20 09:30 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

christopera said:
I think the real question at this point is what will the rebound be like?

I have many friends who are looking at going wage-less for the next week or two. It's hard to recover an economy when everyone is broke, and low gas prices and tax breaks don't help broke people.




After 9/11 bush gave every tax payer a couple hundred bucks. You got a check in the mail. You know; socialism.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26538567 - 03/16/20 12:52 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)



--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Offlineqman
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: christopera] * 1
    #26538591 - 03/16/20 01:06 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

christopera said:
I think the real question at this point is what will the rebound be like?

I have many friends who are looking at going wage-less for the next week or two. It's hard to recover an economy when everyone is broke, and low gas prices and tax breaks don't help broke people.




I don't really see any meaningful economic rebound on Main Street because all of the stimulus will come in the forms of bailouts and tax breaks for the corporations/shareholders.

In fact, the "capitalists" are going to take advantage of this meltdown to grab even more wealth from the peasants with foreclosures, seizing properties/assets and layoffs.

The Elite don't want a real economic rebound, they want a recession on Main Street with debt slavery for the peasants. The bond market is forecasting a very long term perpetual depression on Main Street, Joe Six-Pack is now officially in fuckoff land.


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Offlineqman
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26538593 - 03/16/20 01:08 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
Thank god for the virus, now I can refi my house to a lower interest rate. But honestly, the Fed makes calls and policies that our elected representatives would never be able to make (they are weak in the belly). Koods is right, the tool chest would be more depleted if Trump got every reduction he cries for.




Despite the lower interest rates, banks are going to be extremely reluctant to refinance any mortgages. The only people benefiting from the ultra low rates with be the very wealthy.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26538725 - 03/16/20 02:28 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
Thank god for the virus, now I can refi my house to a lower interest rate. But honestly, the Fed makes calls and policies that our elected representatives would never be able to make (they are weak in the belly). Koods is right, the tool chest would be more depleted if Trump got every reduction he cries for.




Same, I'm meeting with a banker Thursday. I'm also sitting on a sizeable cash reserve that I pulled out of the market right after the elections in Nov 2018. I figure another few weeks and it's going back in the market.

With any luck, I'll be able to pick up a foreclosure or two cheap as well, I know a few of my neighbors are overleveraged to shit, and I figure they'll be happy to take half price for their houses in a few months.


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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26539393 - 03/16/20 08:32 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I bet trump is meeting with his bankers as well. He finally got that zero percent he needed to keep his personal finance Ponzi scheme from collapsing


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Invisiblesh4d0ws
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: koods]
    #26539822 - 03/17/20 01:28 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

:lol:


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Offlinechristopera
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: sh4d0ws] * 2
    #26541389 - 03/17/20 07:17 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Here come the bailouts, but only for the companies. The peasants get to suffer.


--------------------
Enjoy the process of your search without succumbing to the pressure of the result.

A Dorito is pizza, change my mind.

Bank and Union with The Shroomery at the Zuul on The internet - now with %'s and things

I’m sorry it had to be me.


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: christopera]
    #26542054 - 03/18/20 05:50 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Looks like we will get something too. Lets just make it Monopoly money for all. Our stock market skipped a steady correction phase and went straight to a recession.....possibly depression. Wont know until a quarter from now.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


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Offlineqman
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: SirTripAlot] * 2
    #26542275 - 03/18/20 08:44 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
Looks like we will get something too. Lets just make it Monopoly money for all. Our stock market skipped a steady correction phase and went straight to a recession.....possibly depression. Wont know until a quarter from now.




What's really disgusting is all of these industries that now need Federal bailouts (free money) pissed away trillions of dollars the past ten years on share buybacks. Now they have almost zero cash and trillions of debt. So what's the reward for irresponsible corporate behavior? Free money in the form of government bailouts!!!

Joe Six-Pack isn't going to get any bailout, he's going to get kicked out of his house/apartment and potentially land on the streets.


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Offlinechristopera
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: qman]
    #26542334 - 03/18/20 09:29 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Can't they sell of stock to generate the capital they need to continue? I thought that was the point of selling stocks in the first place.

In Canada the banks are deferring mortgage payments for 6 months. Now that would help! I doubt we will see that in the states.


--------------------
Enjoy the process of your search without succumbing to the pressure of the result.

A Dorito is pizza, change my mind.

Bank and Union with The Shroomery at the Zuul on The internet - now with %'s and things

I’m sorry it had to be me.


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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: christopera]
    #26542337 - 03/18/20 09:32 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Stock buybacks remove those shares from the market. They are destroyed and the number of outstanding shares is reduced. If the company needed to raise money selling shares they would need a new public offering.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Offlineqman
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: christopera]
    #26542571 - 03/18/20 11:54 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

christopera said:
Can't they sell of stock to generate the capital they need to continue? I thought that was the point of selling stocks in the first place.

In Canada the banks are deferring mortgage payments for 6 months. Now that would help! I doubt we will see that in the states.




Why dilute your shares with stock issuance when your government can give you free money? 

The CEO's and executives got rich from borrowing trillions of dollars to buy back overvalued shares. Now that everything is going to shit, they don't want to deal with their irresponsibility. The Banksters on Wall Street never lose, only the peasants take the hit.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: qman] * 2
    #26542795 - 03/18/20 02:31 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

qman said:
What's really disgusting is all of these industries that now need Federal bailouts (free money) pissed away trillions of dollars the past ten years on share buybacks. Now they have almost zero cash and trillions of debt. So what's the reward for irresponsible corporate behavior? Free money in the form of government bailouts!!!




Is it trickling down yet? I was promised that the Republican Tax Scam was gonna trickle down onto me!


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Offlinefeldman114
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26542806 - 03/18/20 02:39 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Yesss
Just close your eyes and open your mouth :stonedjerk:


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Offlineqman
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: feldman114] * 1
    #26543534 - 03/18/20 09:23 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)



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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: qman]
    #26544945 - 03/19/20 02:55 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

You know what we should try?

We should try cutting taxes on corporations and raising taxes on the working class.

That should work beautifully.


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Offlinefeldman114
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26544949 - 03/19/20 02:57 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

We’ll find out how well it works soon enough, I’m sure :shrug:


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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: qman] * 1
    #26545019 - 03/19/20 03:27 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

qman said:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-jpmorgan-usa/jp-morgan-slashes-forecast-for-u-s-gdp-sees-14-second-quarter-drop-idUSKBN2153HU

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/u-s-economy-will-shrink-by-14-as-coronavirus-leads-to-worst-contraction-in-50-years-jpmorgan-warns

It appears the US and the rest of the world is in the early stages of entering a global economic depression.  :sad:




I called it two years ago 🤓

Unemployment in the US could hit 20% by May.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: koods]
    #26545089 - 03/19/20 04:12 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Called it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/world/coronavirus-update-cases.html

Quote:

Senate Republicans on Thursday unveiled an economic rescue plan that would provide hundreds of billions of dollars worth of loans to big corporations and small businesses, large corporate tax cuts and checks of $1,200 for taxpayers, as well as limits on a paid leave program enacted this week to respond to the coronavirus crisis.

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, introduced the proposal after private talks with Republicans and the White House, but it is likely to face opposition from Democrats who have their own plans and have pushed for more generous paid leave benefits.

The 247-page bill would provide the $1,200 payments to those earning up to $75,000 a year, phasing out the payments for higher earners and limiting them to those who earn up to $99,000.




I don't even get paid. But there will be large corporate tax cuts again! And they think we Americans are getting a little too much sick leave, and need to get back to work.


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Offlineqman
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #26545184 - 03/19/20 05:14 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
You know what we should try?

We should try cutting taxes on corporations and raising taxes on the working class.

That should work beautifully.




Just wait, this is the perfect excuse to start fiscal austerity by making major spending cuts in SS, Medicare and other social programs.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: qman] * 2
    #26545200 - 03/19/20 05:23 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)



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Offlinechristopera
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26545274 - 03/19/20 06:04 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

#winning


--------------------
Enjoy the process of your search without succumbing to the pressure of the result.

A Dorito is pizza, change my mind.

Bank and Union with The Shroomery at the Zuul on The internet - now with %'s and things

I’m sorry it had to be me.


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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: qman]
    #26545978 - 03/20/20 07:12 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

qman said:
Quote:

Kryptos said:
You know what we should try?

We should try cutting taxes on corporations and raising taxes on the working class.

That should work beautifully.




Just wait, this is the perfect excuse to start fiscal austerity by making major spending cuts in SS, Medicare and other social programs.




Some will definitely try. Whether they can get away with it is uncertain. I think the peasants may be getting angry enough to stop it. Maybe.


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26545985 - 03/20/20 07:15 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

What pressure?

These guys are in safe districts. They aren't under pressure. If the peasants get too uppity, there are always airstrikes.

Like the ones we dropped in Iraq yesterday.


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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26546006 - 03/20/20 07:29 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Some elites live in safe districts, gated communities etc. But a lot of them like to live in swanky areas downtown and are very close to the poor.


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26546021 - 03/20/20 07:38 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I think we're talking about two different aspects here. When I say "safe districts" I mean politically safe. They won't get voted out. A good third of Congress could probably drive down the street and machine gun their constituents, like that warlord's kid in "Lord of War" and still get re-elected.

In terms of location and physical safety, we've already seen that the more money you have the faster you get tested, so I don't see why treatment would be any different. Wealthy go first. Further, swanky downtown buildings tend to have higher end private security.


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OfflineMycoBrainz
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26546023 - 03/20/20 07:39 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Time to refinance all your loans.


Covid19 does not discriminate.


--------------------
:stoned:


PFC x Creeper


Lets Get Stoned


Edited by MycoBrainz (03/20/20 07:40 AM)


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: MycoBrainz]
    #26546047 - 03/20/20 08:00 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I talked to my financial guy about that yesterday, and he actually suggested waiting a week or two to refinance. Everybody and their dog is trying to refinance right now, which is pushing interest rates up for the common consumer.


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Offlineqman
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26546067 - 03/20/20 08:10 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
Quote:

qman said:
Quote:

Kryptos said:
You know what we should try?

We should try cutting taxes on corporations and raising taxes on the working class.

That should work beautifully.




Just wait, this is the perfect excuse to start fiscal austerity by making major spending cuts in SS, Medicare and other social programs.




Some will definitely try. Whether they can get away with it is uncertain. I think the peasants may be getting angry enough to stop it. Maybe.




If I was part of The Elite, I wouldn't hesitate at all to make those cuts.  The US population is full of politically unmotivated sheep. They take whatever abuse that is thrown at them and rationalize it. Until people are willing to protest on the streets, they deserve exactly what is coming their way.


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Offlinefeldman114
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: qman] * 1
    #26546092 - 03/20/20 08:20 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Idk about “deserve” but you’re right, we won’t get any real change unless we usher it in ourselves.

True socialism must be started from the bottom. The idea is to have a revolution which, by its very nature, teaches the masses how to navigate policy and effectively govern themselves.

The system must be put in place by the masses, not the elite. Only then can it be a system that won’t be used against the masses later.


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Offlinechristopera
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: MycoBrainz]
    #26546116 - 03/20/20 08:35 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Refinance? My day job shut down yesterday. There goes about 50% of my pay. I'm gearing up to expand my machine shop sales, but as capital trickles for many I expect my sales to slow as well. Let's hope I can get through this and keep my home. I have about $25k in savings, but really hope it doesn't get to a point where I have to use that. Refinancing my 2.8% loan isn't really on the radar at this point.


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Edited by christopera (03/20/20 08:37 AM)


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: feldman114]
    #26546117 - 03/20/20 08:36 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

There's a smarter way to make those cuts.

It's an extension of Starve the Beast strategy--and relies on a recession.

You need to keep giving out money and tax cuts and then leave office, so that the next guy gets blamed for either (a) cuts to social safety or (b) presiding over a default.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26551988 - 03/22/20 10:23 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

In this case the next guy is Trump.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: meltdowner]
    #26553461 - 03/23/20 04:36 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Sure isn't gonna be the Pedophiliac Democratic Nominee. I just wanna see all politicians die from covid19.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: MycoBrainz]
    #26553941 - 03/23/20 08:31 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

MycoBrainz said:
Sure isn't gonna be the Pedophiliac Democratic Nominee. I just wanna see all politicians die from covid19.



I think mass boomer extinction is going to drop property values like mad.  That will make millenials happier than anything else... i knownit would me.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: meltdowner]
    #26553945 - 03/23/20 08:33 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

meltdowner said:
Quote:

MycoBrainz said:
Sure isn't gonna be the Pedophiliac Democratic Nominee. I just wanna see all politicians die from covid19.



I think mass boomer extinction is going to drop property values like mad.  That will make millenials happier than anything else... i knownit would me.



Quote:

meltdowner said:
In this case the next guy is Trump.




Mass boomer extinction isn’t good for trump


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: koods]
    #26553950 - 03/23/20 08:36 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Thats OK.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: meltdowner]
    #26554580 - 03/24/20 07:32 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

You've got some waiting to do. I'm 62 and my current life expectancy is over 20 years. There are 7 years of baby boomers younger than me.

But I do like your pragmatism.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26555761 - 03/24/20 07:31 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
You've got some waiting to do. I'm 62 and my current life expectancy is over 20 years. There are 7 years of baby boomers younger than me.

But I do like your pragmatism.




That's really not how life expectancy works. Life expectancy is only a useful measurement at birth. The longer you live, the higher your life expectancy. Statistically, you are extremely unlikely to die between the ages of 104 and 105, and your life expectancy will, as of right now, become infinite as soon as you age past 122 and ~164 days.

Ya know, because so few people ever get there.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26556037 - 03/24/20 09:50 PM (3 years, 10 months ago)

.... i think its clear the point he was trying to make....

My parents are boomers and i dont want to see them dead so my original comment was sort of a sick, twisted joke.  Seriously would improve the housing prices, though.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: meltdowner]
    #26556461 - 03/25/20 07:24 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Elections have consequences.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #26556758 - 03/25/20 10:12 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
Quote:

Brian Jones said:
You've got some waiting to do. I'm 62 and my current life expectancy is over 20 years. There are 7 years of baby boomers younger than me.

But I do like your pragmatism.




That's really not how life expectancy works. Life expectancy is only a useful measurement at birth. The longer you live, the higher your life expectancy. Statistically, you are extremely unlikely to die between the ages of 104 and 105, and your life expectancy will, as of right now, become infinite as soon as you age past 122 and ~164 days.

Ya know, because so few people ever get there.




That's exactly how life expectancy works. There is a life expectancy for every age. Life expectancy at birth is just the one you hear about the most. Of course the longer you live, the higher your life expectancy. When you reach the age of one it goes up because the first year is the most deadly. Males also have relatively high death rates in their late teens and early twenties.

There is no difference in the predictive validity of life expectancy at birth or life expectancy at other ages. 

I'm not sure what you're trying to say in the last sentence.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26557353 - 03/25/20 04:08 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

My point was that life expectancy becomes less and less useful as a metric the older you are. The older you are, the fewer data points there are for comparison, which necessarily increases standard deviation as n goes down.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26558558 - 03/26/20 08:01 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

I disagree completely. The N is still plenty high to not raise the standard deviation perceptively. 

How much expected variance is there in predicting life expectancy at birth vs predicting a 60 year old is going to live twenty more years. When N is sufficiently high, variance is the main issue in statistical forecasting.

I still don't understand the comment you made about people over 100, but I am confident that life expectancy at 60 is at least as accurate as life expectancy at birth.


--------------------
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I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26559231 - 03/26/20 01:49 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
I disagree completely. The N is still plenty high to not raise the standard deviation perceptively. 

How much expected variance is there in predicting life expectancy at birth vs predicting a 60 year old is going to live twenty more years. When N is sufficiently high, variance is the main issue in statistical forecasting.

I still don't understand the comment you made about people over 100, but I am confident that life expectancy at 60 is at least as accurate as life expectancy at birth.




Maybe I'm being pedantic, but what you are saying is mathematically impossible.

Varience and SD are directly related, as Var = SD^2

N may be "sufficiently high" to predict life expectancy for a current 60 year old, but it is lower than N for life expectancy at birth. This means that life expectancy at any age past birth is inherently less accurate.

And my comment about centenarians serves only to illustrate this fact. The life expectancy of someone that's 100+ is basically a random guess. Very few people die at 100+. The life expectancy of someone that is older that 122.5 years old explodes to infinity, from a mathematical standpoint.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos] * 2
    #26559314 - 03/26/20 02:53 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
Quote:

Brian Jones said:
I disagree completely. The N is still plenty high to not raise the standard deviation perceptively. 

How much expected variance is there in predicting life expectancy at birth vs predicting a 60 year old is going to live twenty more years. When N is sufficiently high, variance is the main issue in statistical forecasting.

I still don't understand the comment you made about people over 100, but I am confident that life expectancy at 60 is at least as accurate as life expectancy at birth.



Maybe I'm being pedantic, but what you are saying is mathematically impossible.

Varience and SD are directly related, as Var = SD^2

N may be "sufficiently high" to predict life expectancy for a current 60 year old, but it is lower than N for life expectancy at birth. This means that life expectancy at any age past birth is inherently less accurate.



No, there is far more variance in the number of years someone will live when they are first born than the number of years someone will live if they are already 110.

Quote:

Kryptos said:
And my comment about centenarians serves only to illustrate this fact. The life expectancy of someone that's 100  is basically a random guess. Very few people die at 100 . The life expectancy of someone that is older that 122.5 years old explodes to infinity, from a mathematical standpoint.



To show this is incorrect, let's just use a simple intuitive example:

If someone turns 122.5, I'll bet on their age at death, while you bet on a newborn's age at death.

I would bet they'll die at 122, you would likely bet they'll die at the either the mean, the median or (most likely) the mode for life expectancy.

I think it's intuitively obvious I'll probably come much closer to being right than you.

Let me know if you want to get into the math.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26559340 - 03/26/20 03:12 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Let me know if you want to get into the math.




Okay. Using math, show me evidence that someone is capable of dying after the age of 122 and a half.

I'll wait.

The answer is, we don't know if someone older than 122.5 can die, because nobody has ever lived that long. Therefore, their life expectancy is infinite. Because life expectancy depends on how long people of that age live.

Of course, logically, someone can die after the age of 122.5, but there is no evidence to support that logic.

EDIT: At the risk of sounding like I'm discriminating, I won't accept biblical evidence.


Edited by Kryptos (03/26/20 03:54 PM)


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26559426 - 03/26/20 03:49 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Someone who lives that long is probably immortal


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: koods]
    #26559433 - 03/26/20 03:51 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Statistically, the oldest person in history is immortal, until the day they die.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26559464 - 03/26/20 04:04 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

I dun get it.
How can someone be statistically immortal or mortal? :lol:


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: feldman114]
    #26559472 - 03/26/20 04:07 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Schrodinger’s geezer


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26559558 - 03/26/20 04:36 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
Quote:

Brian Jones said:
I disagree completely. The N is still plenty high to not raise the standard deviation perceptively. 

How much expected variance is there in predicting life expectancy at birth vs predicting a 60 year old is going to live twenty more years. When N is sufficiently high, variance is the main issue in statistical forecasting.

I still don't understand the comment you made about people over 100, but I am confident that life expectancy at 60 is at least as accurate as life expectancy at birth.




Maybe I'm being pedantic, but what you are saying is mathematically impossible.

Varience and SD are directly related, as Var = SD^2

N may be "sufficiently high" to predict life expectancy for a current 60 year old, but it is lower than N for life expectancy at birth. This means that life expectancy at any age past birth is inherently less accurate.

And my comment about centenarians serves only to illustrate this fact. The life expectancy of someone that's 100+ is basically a random guess. Very few people die at 100+. The life expectancy of someone that is older that 122.5 years old explodes to infinity, from a mathematical standpoint.




I'll just repeat what I said the last time. There is no issue with N here. We are an old country.

The way that N effects the standard error of the estimate wont be noticeable. When N isn't an issue, variance is the issue. It doesn't matter if you think of variance as the sum of the squared deviations from the mean, or as a descriptive word that is a synonym for variability. There is less or equal variance in life expectancy at 60 than at birth. The small N issues when we get to extreme old age don't have a bearing on what we are debating.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: feldman114]
    #26559559 - 03/26/20 04:38 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

feldman114 said:
I dun get it.
How can someone be statistically immortal or mortal? :lol:




Because life expectancy depends on the lives of your peers. The oldest person in history has no peers, therefore they are statistically immortal. In other words, they don't have a life expectancy. It's kinda like having the number one player improve their game. How do you get better than first place?

Here's another fun mindfuck, one with more philosophical and religious overtones:

There are IIRC 26 basic physical constants in the universe, which must line up as they do. The slightest variation in any of those constants and the universe as we know it cannot exist. Some might say, this is evidence of intelligent design. How else can those things line up so perfectly?

Well, let's look at the probability of all of those 26 constants lining up as they did. What are the chances? 100%.

Wait, what?

Well, there's only one universe, and as far as we can tell, the physical constants all lined up. Therefore, the probability of the universe popping into existence as we know it by random chance is, 1/1 = 100%.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26559680 - 03/26/20 05:35 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
...we don't know if someone older than 122.5 can die, because nobody has ever lived that long. Therefore, their life expectancy is infinite. Because life expectancy depends on how long people of that age live.

Of course, logically, someone can die after the age of 122.5, but there is no evidence to support that logic.



:picard:

Let me give another example to show what you're doing here.  Let's say we get all the most powerful golfers in the world together to see if any of them can break the current drive distance record of 515 yards.  What you're saying is that since no one's ever driven a ball that far, if the record is broken, we should expect the ball to travel an infinite distance.  Do you really believe that's the case?


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26559698 - 03/26/20 05:45 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

I think he means that with the world's oldest person there is no data to predict future outcomes.

But back at the original argument, for 60 to 80 year old's there are millions of data points.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26559741 - 03/26/20 06:07 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

It follows a roughly asymptotic curve (I forgot the exact name).  We don't need data, we can simply estimate based on the shape of the curve.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: koods]
    #26560110 - 03/26/20 09:35 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

This is the funniest thing I've seen you post!


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26560577 - 03/27/20 06:24 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
It follows a roughly asymptotic curve (I forgot the exact name).  We don't need data, we can simply estimate based on the shape of the curve.




...which leads us back to "logically, someone older than 122.5 should be able to die, but we haven't actually seen it happen"

Also, your example is inaccurate. Golf follows the laws of well defined parameters in the form of Newtonian physics. We don't know enough about aging to have the same predictive power. Which is why life expectancy is a data driven extrapolation, and why lacking data, it becomes infinite.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26560676 - 03/27/20 07:52 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

You don’t think we have enough predictive power to say every human will eventually die?
I’m pretty sure the case for that can be made statistically.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: feldman114]
    #26560859 - 03/27/20 10:10 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

We do not have the predictive power to state, with certainty, that every human will die. Aging is not very well understood.

The case cannot be made statistically due to lack of evidence.

We can predict where a ball will land based on measurable factors such as speed and energy, combined with external factors such as drag and gravity. This is due to robust theory. Even then, however, there is a certain level of uncertainty in exactly where the ball will land due to quantum effects, which are largely assumed to be negligible as they are inversely related to the mass of the object. We cannot accurately predict when someone will die based on measurable factors, which is why we rely on a statistical evaluation in the form of "life expectancy". However, statistical analysis only works when you have data points to analyze, and the lack of data past age 122.5 means that we cannot use statistics either.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #26560885 - 03/27/20 10:27 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Every human that ever lived - billions upon billions - has died.
You’re telling me that’s not basis enough?

In that case, what’s the basis for physics? Didn’t someone preform experiments to get “robust theory”? Well, did they replicate them an infinite amount of times? Cause if not, how do you know the next time someone tries to replicate them, the physics won’t change?


What you’re suggesting makes it seem that statistics is a pseudoscience that has no bearing in reality.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: feldman114] * 1
    #26560986 - 03/27/20 11:27 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Physics is based on theory and experimentation, with consistent results.

Aging, and death due to old age, can be based on theory and experimentation, but does not produce consistent results. I direct you to the common anecdote of the grandfather that lives to their 90s and smokes every day.

Statistics is a mathematical attempt to create some semblance of order from mostly random data. Statistics itself is not a science, it is a method. You are correct that statistics does not have an exact bearing on reality, as it fundamentally lacks the predictive power of scientific laws.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26560989 - 03/27/20 11:29 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
...which leads us back to "logically, someone older than 122.5 should be able to die, but we haven't actually seen it happen"



How many world records have you seen broken for the first time, putting us in territory we've never seen before, where something absolutely biblical in nature happens?  Where the golf ball doesn't travel just an extra yard or two, but an extra infinite yards?

Quote:

Kryptos said:
At the risk of sounding like I'm discriminating, I won't accept biblical evidence.



:hmm:


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26561016 - 03/27/20 11:44 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

Kryptos said:
...which leads us back to "logically, someone older than 122.5 should be able to die, but we haven't actually seen it happen"



How many world records have you seen broken for the first time, putting us in territory we've never seen before, where something absolutely biblical in nature happens?  Where the golf ball doesn't travel just an extra yard or two, but an extra infinite yards?

Quote:

Kryptos said:
At the risk of sounding like I'm discriminating, I won't accept biblical evidence.



:hmm:





The Fosbury Flop comes to mind.

And when I said I won't accept biblical evidence, I meant literally evidence from the bible--some of those geezers in Genesis supposedly lived for thousands of years.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26561020 - 03/27/20 11:47 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
Physics is based on theory and experimentation, with consistent results.

Aging, and death due to old age, can be based on theory and experimentation, but does not produce consistent results. I direct you to the common anecdote of the grandfather that lives to their 90s and smokes every day.

Statistics is a mathematical attempt to create some semblance of order from mostly random data. Statistics itself is not a science, it is a method. You are correct that statistics does not have an exact bearing on reality, as it fundamentally lacks the predictive power of scientific laws.




In this case, every human life is an experiment. 100% of results from billions of experiments tell us that every human will die. Consistently.

Statistics is not a science? Ok, now you’re just reaching...

Statistics can (correctly) predict that I will die, with more certainty than physics can predict the trajectory of a golf ball.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: feldman114]
    #26561042 - 03/27/20 11:56 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

We will never have 100% results on the mortality of the human race until the human race is extinct. Nothing is exact.

Statistics can't predict that you will die. Statistics can only predict when you will die. And that is based on other people, i.e. data points.

If you leave the group of data points, then there is no basis upon which to use statistics.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26561072 - 03/27/20 12:06 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

So back to the original debate. Do you still want to argue that I was wrong about life expectancy at 60 predictions being less accurate than life expectancy at birth?


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26561077 - 03/27/20 12:10 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Yes, I still stand by my original argument that life expectancy at birth is a more accurate measure than life expectancy at 60.

However, I will concede that the difference in accuracy can be considered negligible. I'll buy your large N argument.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #26561204 - 03/27/20 01:40 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
Yes, I still stand by my original argument that life expectancy at birth is a more accurate measure than life expectancy at 60.



Nonsense.  Here is the equation for standard deviation:



μ is the average observed value
N is the number of observed values
x is each observed value

Now, let's look at an example where there are only 3 known cases of people whose lives are measured above 110 years (n=3), and 100 known cases of people whose lives are measured from birth (n=100).

In the first example, let's say the 3 people above 110 ended up dying at 110, 111, and 115 (or substitute any such numbers)

In the second example, let's say 5 people died at 10, 15 died at 50, 50 died at 75, 25 died at 80, and 5 died at 110 (or substitute any such numbers, I kept this simple for illustration).

In the first example, μ is 112, n is 3, and x is 110, 111, and 115.  So the standard deviation is only 2.2 years.
In the second example, μ is 71, n is 100, and x is 5x10, 15x50, 50x75, 25x80, and 5x110.  So the standard deviation is 18.9 years.

So you see, you can have a larger N with a larger standard deviation.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26561216 - 03/27/20 01:47 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
So you see, you can have a larger N with a larger standard deviation.




Yes, and one of those standard deviations is more useful than the other when it comes to confidence intervals, t tests, and f tests. The one with the larger N.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos]
    #26561225 - 03/27/20 01:53 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
We will never have 100% results on the mortality of the human race until the human race is extinct. Nothing is exact.

Statistics can't predict that you will die. Statistics can only predict when you will die. And that is based on other people, i.e. data points.

If you leave the group of data points, then there is no basis upon which to use statistics.



My point exactly:shrug:
We will never be 100% sure of a golf ball’s future trajectory. But there’s more basis to statistically predict my mortality than there is to predict a certain trajectory, simply because there were more experiments (deaths) than golf strokes.

But yes, nothing is exact. Not statistics and not physics....


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: feldman114] * 1
    #26561269 - 03/27/20 02:18 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

feldman114 said:
But there’s more basis to statistically predict my mortality than there is to predict a certain trajectory, simply because there were more experiments (deaths) than golf strokes.




No, not at all.

Given our best measurement techniques, I can calculate where an average golf ball (45g) will land on an average swing (130mph) to at least within 10^-16 meters, probably closer to 10^-18 or 10^-19. That's without math, that's just looking at the planck constant. For comparison, a proton is 2*10^-15 meters wide. Compared to the average golf drive distance of 200m.

Given our best measurement techniques, I can be 95% certain that you will die between the ages of 48 and 108, if you were born this year.

Which one of those is more accurate, do you think? In my opinion, there's a reason that one of those two is used to kill people with artillery.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #26561310 - 03/27/20 02:42 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

You can be 100% certain you will die.

Based on billions of people of whom 0 turned out to be immortal.


I never mentioned age groups in any of my poasts. I’m just saying that statistics can predict my mortality with unmatched accuracy. Idk of any other experiments that were reproduced billions of times with 100% accuracy.

Certainly not ballistic missile tests. Or are you suggesting there have been more than 100 billion tests?


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Kryptos] * 2
    #26561381 - 03/27/20 03:16 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
So you see, you can have a larger N with a larger standard deviation.



Yes, and one of those standard deviations is more useful than the other when it comes to confidence intervals, t tests, and f tests. The one with the larger N.



Again, not true.  If we assume a standard normal distribution curve (which I realize doesn't quite apply here), we see that

Confidence interval = μ +- (confidence level z value) * σ / √N

From this formula, we see that σ is more important than N in determining confidence interval.

Again, I realize we're not quite looking a normal distribution curve, but you should see the point.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: feldman114]
    #26561383 - 03/27/20 03:17 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

feldman114 said:
You can be 100% certain you will die.

Based on billions of people of whom 0 turned out to be immortal.



:whathesaid:


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26561781 - 03/27/20 06:20 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

If you cant prove it with statistics, you are not trying hard enough.


--------------------
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Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #26561793 - 03/27/20 06:25 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Here's the way I'm thinking about in terms of the original issue of whether life expectancy at 60 is less accurate than life expectancy at birth. Given the large number of 60-90 year old's N is irrelevant. In survey research an N=200 is commonly used for a state survey and N=500 is commonly used for a national survey. Since we are talking about N in the millions, it's effects on accuracy will be many many decimal places to the right of zero in what ever measure we use.

That means that variability is the key issue effecting the accuracy of the estimate. How much variation is there in life expectancy at birth vs life expectancy at 60? Obviously if we use raw scores of standard deviation there is more variation in life expectancy at birth than life expectancy at 60. If we use standardized (Z-scores) I'm not sure if that difference remains or if they become more equal. I haven't done this stuff for a living for over 25 years. But since life expectancy is always expressed in years, that's a raw score. So it makes sense to use raw scores for the standard deviation.

Therefore, I am concluding that life expectancy at 60 is a more accurate measure than life expectancy at birth. If I'm wrong I'm still willing to bet $ that it isn't less accurate.


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,


Edited by Brian Jones (03/28/20 03:08 AM)


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26561955 - 03/27/20 07:27 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
If you cant prove it with statistics, you are not trying hard enough.



Was that directed at me?  I just showed all the equations.  :shrug:


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Re: The Federal Reserve [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #26562459 - 03/28/20 02:59 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Just an overly simplistic comment for the community.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


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