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OfflineEnkidu
"No-Such-Person"
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Registered: 07/09/16
Posts: 10,698
Last seen: 6 months, 11 days
Covid and quarantine
    #26536311 - 03/15/20 10:00 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

What you guys think is going on?

Im in the US.

You think this is all gona blow over?

Something mlre to it?

Really think they will shut down and quarantine cities like im hearing in other parts?

Whats it like where youre at?

Conspiracy theorists are def talking right now... Thoughts?


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Within You , Without You


:mushroom2::levitate::mushroom2:


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Offlinewatermelon mon
Willow Trees


Registered: 04/05/13
Posts: 7,800
Last seen: 3 years, 3 months
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: Enkidu]
    #26536317 - 03/15/20 10:05 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Wont be surprised if they shut everything down with martial law.

I heard that in a place where that's happening, if they catch you outside. I was told it's minimum 3 months in prison.


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    :dazedandconfused:


Edited by watermelon mon (03/15/20 10:08 AM)


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Offlinegopher
Coffee Bean Extraordinaire
I'm a teapot


Registered: 11/22/17
Posts: 12,999
Loc: Canada Flag
Last seen: 1 hour, 47 minutes
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: Enkidu]
    #26536326 - 03/15/20 10:12 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

try and stay in your house, only go outside for groceries and prescriptions and stuff like that


--------------------
For most of the normies out there, an operating system is just a bootloader for Google Chrome.

Since Disney has obtained tremendous value from the public domain, knows how important the public domain is, and is firmly determined to never contribute anything to it.

My pronouns are He and Him, and my adjectives are Fat and Jazzy

:kratom:


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Invisibletrees
 User Gallery

Registered: 02/08/09
Posts: 9,194
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: watermelon mon] * 2
    #26536329 - 03/15/20 10:13 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

It think the panic will blow over once we find out everyone is infected and most of the deaths have happened. I bet that it's just very brutal in the beginning but things will normalize over time.  I don't think lock downs will occur in my area. You can still go buy groceries in Italy and plenty of old people are unaffected


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Offlineflugelizor
Furious ball of nothing
Male User Gallery

Registered: 11/16/08
Posts: 2,107
Loc: Western NY
Last seen: 44 minutes, 20 seconds
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: Enkidu]
    #26536333 - 03/15/20 10:16 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I just watched Joe Rogan's interview with Michael Osterholm expert in infectious disease epidemiology
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw
Very informative, I highly recommend it.

According to him there is no stopping it because it is communicable before symptoms show.
It will not blow over. It will run it's course. But please don't freak out.


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OfflineEnkidu
"No-Such-Person"
Male

Registered: 07/09/16
Posts: 10,698
Last seen: 6 months, 11 days
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: flugelizor] * 1
    #26536343 - 03/15/20 10:20 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Run its course meaning what exactly?

Isnt death rate extremely low for all but the very elderly


--------------------
Within You , Without You


:mushroom2::levitate::mushroom2:


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Other User Gallery Ultimate Champion: Blackjack


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB Flag
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: Enkidu] * 2
    #26536346 - 03/15/20 10:20 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

You got about another 3 to 6 weeks of total fucking chaos. Buy food, liquor, dope, whatever stock the fuck up and stay inside.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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OfflineEnkidu
"No-Such-Person"
Male

Registered: 07/09/16
Posts: 10,698
Last seen: 6 months, 11 days
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #26536347 - 03/15/20 10:22 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

We were about to head to the store now to stock up on food.

See what its like out there.. Probably a bad time to go middle of a sunday day. And we have our 1 month baby


--------------------
Within You , Without You


:mushroom2::levitate::mushroom2:


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Other User Gallery Ultimate Champion: Blackjack


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB Flag
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: Enkidu] * 3
    #26536351 - 03/15/20 10:24 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Enkidu said:
Run its course meaning what exactly?

Isnt death rate extremely low for all but the very elderly




Not really. I think the death rate is between 1.5-4% depending on demographics and health response of a region. The USA might be on the higher end because there aren't enough hospital beds, there was a slow response and there is no unified public healthcare system. With a 40-70% infection rate you could have 100,000 to millions of deaths. The economy is going to implode and most services won't be available for maybe 3 months.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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Offlineflugelizor
Furious ball of nothing
Male User Gallery

Registered: 11/16/08
Posts: 2,107
Loc: Western NY
Last seen: 44 minutes, 20 seconds
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: Enkidu]
    #26536356 - 03/15/20 10:27 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

(according to Osterholm )
It would run it's course meaning 3-6 months of being passed to every corner of the country.
And it will finally taper off when enough of the population has had it so the rate of transfer is too small  to continue.
More than 1% mortality.

When the panic subsides people return to work and the disease will make a comeback.

People in their 40s have died from it so he stresses it's not just a disease of the elderly.
Plus, even if it was just the elderly dying, that would still suck.


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Offlineflugelizor
Furious ball of nothing
Male User Gallery

Registered: 11/16/08
Posts: 2,107
Loc: Western NY
Last seen: 44 minutes, 20 seconds
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #26536366 - 03/15/20 10:29 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

And he says the US might be worse because of the high rate of obesity and heart disease.


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InvisibleInfiniteDreams
Male

Registered: 10/25/19
Posts: 1,224
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: flugelizor]
    #26536367 - 03/15/20 10:31 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Your CPAP can't save you now... damn those cheeseburgers


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Offlinechristopera
Stranger
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Registered: 10/13/17
Posts: 14,201
Last seen: 11 minutes, 27 seconds
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: Enkidu]
    #26536375 - 03/15/20 10:37 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Enkidu said:
What you guys think is going on?

Im in the US.

You think this is all gona blow over?

Something mlre to it?

Really think they will shut down and quarantine cities like im hearing in other parts?

Whats it like where youre at?

Conspiracy theorists are def talking right now... Thoughts?




Things are both better and worse than is being portrayed.

First and foremost, the US is vastly under reporting their total number of cases. That does a few things, but primarily it skews all of the data and outlooks crazily. What we know, there are like 2 to 10 times more cases than reported. So, not only is Covid 19 spreading faster than we know, but the number of cases are many orders of magnitude higher than recorded. The US has been strictly testing the worst cases, very few low risk (for the carrier) cases have been tested. What does that it mean? It means that not only are there far more cases than are being recorded, but it also means the reported fatality rate is vastly overblown.

Will this blow over? Eventually. Expect at least three months of uncertainty. The biggest case study, that being China, has basically stalled out in terms of new cases. They are now fully in recovery stages. They had a rather draconian approach to control, and it was effective. It remains to be seen if other approaches will work. Italy of course will be the second best indicator. They are struggling to provide beds. We have to wait and see how their case count grows.

Currently, the U.S. has a 1.9% fatality rate, that's right in the middle. Unless there is undue stress on the medical system there's little reason to expect that to rise. In fact, it should fall, but we aren't yet at the apex of the initial infection rate so only time will tell.

In the mean time, take care of yourself and family, don't be a dick and buy all the TP and cans of beans your local store has, and generally just go about life. Avoid large gatherings, try to relax, and don't buy into the hysteria.

In my city, we've just had two confirmed cases. They were sent home to rest. I talked to three nurses when I stopped for a pint after work, they said they had three people die from the flu that day and the Covid 19 isn't really on their radar. Take from that what you will. I also had a meeting with project management of a hospital construction project that I oversee, they are concerned with our ICRA training, so we've had to schedule new infectious control training. OSHA has also issued interim respirator standards, meaning there are new temporary standards for half mask and full face respirators (note that two strap mask aren't included as they aren't for respiratory protection but rather blood born pathogens, don't let the make believers of the world tell you otherwise).

Keep an eye on this resource; https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

In the mean time be very critical of everything you read and hear. There's a lot of hysterics and big imaginations in this world.

Finally, the U.S. has like 25% the hospital beds of many countries, we pay twice as much for our health care. We are also only tested like 25k people, meanwhile South Korea tests like 15k a day. A pretty disappointing response for the richest nation in the world. A little introspection on the failures of our health care system seems reasonable.


--------------------
Enjoy the process of your search without succumbing to the pressure of the result.

A Dorito is pizza, change my mind.

Bank and Union with The Shroomery at the Zuul on The internet - now with %'s and things

I’m sorry it had to be me.


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InvisibleInfiniteDreams
Male

Registered: 10/25/19
Posts: 1,224
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: christopera]
    #26536390 - 03/15/20 10:48 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Let's not forget this about China.  Early cases in December, doctors were ordered to change the official statements and claim they made an error.  Cause of death was also falsified as the government attempted to suppress and cover up the existence of this virus.

Then a large social gathering in January with millions of people in close proximity sharing food occurs in the infected region.  Followed by Lunar New Year where they travel out spreading the infection far and wide.

Please don't tell me about the Chinese response to this virus.


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OfflineSFS96
AstroMan
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Registered: 12/09/18
Posts: 2,144
Loc: Valleys Of Neptune
Last seen: 2 days, 6 hours
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: watermelon mon] * 1
    #26536394 - 03/15/20 10:49 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

If it keeps spreading I feel like they may shut down cities to keep it contained. Many people are acting like it’s just going to blow over I’m the next week or 2 and I don’t see that happening. I think we’re going to keep spreading it over the next week or 2 until it’s everywhere and they have to tighten down on us. Lucky I’m in the  country so I don’t have near as much contact with people then in the city. I have enough food to last at least couple of months so I’m going to try to stay home as much as possible. I think the conspiracy theorists are crazy lol I don’t think this is a way for the government to take over like many are saying. Yes they are going to have to tighten down on us but it is necessary if we want to get it under control and most people will just carry on with life and continue the spreading unless the government steps in and tells them what to do. I know plenty of people that still went on vacation for spring break and said oh this is just a bunch of bullshit and it only kills 2% of people who get it so why worry? I’m over here thinking yeah I’m young and will more than likely survive this if I get it, but I don’t want to get sick and pass this on to family that’s older and not as likely to survive. I guess that’s enough rambling for me lol everyone be safe out there :goodluck:


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How I make and preserve tea


Consuming consumes a man That was never a purpose of life To only crave for material joys Is believing the lie - Mellow Mood


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Offlinechristopera
Stranger
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Registered: 10/13/17
Posts: 14,201
Last seen: 11 minutes, 27 seconds
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: InfiniteDreams] * 2
    #26536426 - 03/15/20 11:04 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

InfiniteDreams said:
Let's not forget this about China.  Early cases in December, doctors were ordered to change the official statements and claim they made an error.  Cause of death was also falsified as the government attempted to suppress and cover up the existence of this virus.

Then a large social gathering in January with millions of people in close proximity sharing food occurs in the infected region.  Followed by Lunar New Year where they travel out spreading the infection far and wide.

Please don't tell me about the Chinese response to this virus.




The US's cover up isn't much better. The CDC has admitted they aren't testing so that they can decrease the number of cases, the president requested this, he's also proposed budget cuts to the CDC.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/why-has-the-us-cdc-done-so-little-coronavirus-testing.html
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/487068-trump-coronavirus-response-seen-as-threat-to-cdc-confidence
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-testing-delays-caused-in-part-by-underfunding-cdc-director-says.html
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/486817-trump-budget-chief-holds-firm-on-cdc-cuts-amid-virus-outbreak


--------------------
Enjoy the process of your search without succumbing to the pressure of the result.

A Dorito is pizza, change my mind.

Bank and Union with The Shroomery at the Zuul on The internet - now with %'s and things

I’m sorry it had to be me.


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Invisiblewaves

Registered: 04/03/10
Posts: 2,213
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: christopera] * 2
    #26536441 - 03/15/20 11:13 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

The US wasn't prepared for an event like this in the first place, and Trump's total incompetence and stupidity has made the situation exponentially worse.


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InvisibleCookieCrumbsM
Fucked off to the pub
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Registered: 12/10/11
Posts: 14,146
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #26536446 - 03/15/20 11:15 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Ahab McBathsalts said:
Quote:

Enkidu said:
Run its course meaning what exactly?

Isnt death rate extremely low for all but the very elderly




Not really. I think the death rate is between 1.5-4% depending on demographics and health response of a region. The USA might be on the higher end because there aren't enough hospital beds, there was a slow response and there is no unified public healthcare system. With a 40-70% infection rate you could have 100,000 to millions of deaths. The economy is going to implode and most services won't be available for maybe 3 months.




Swine flu infected 59 million Americans in 2009.

If this thing is even slightly more contagious than that, and it's incubation period suggests it is, and considering the high travel period it hit China it would be easy to imagine it's infected more than 100 million people already.

Do that many tests even exist?


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          :dancingbear: Free time is the only time :dancingbear:                    :thatsinteresting:


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Offlinechristopera
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Registered: 10/13/17
Posts: 14,201
Last seen: 11 minutes, 27 seconds
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: waves] * 2
    #26536451 - 03/15/20 11:17 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

waves said:
The US wasn't prepared for an event like this in the first place, and Trump's total incompetence and stupidity has made the situation exponentially worse.




You are correct. That's why I mentioned our health care incompetence before. This should be a wake up call.


--------------------
Enjoy the process of your search without succumbing to the pressure of the result.

A Dorito is pizza, change my mind.

Bank and Union with The Shroomery at the Zuul on The internet - now with %'s and things

I’m sorry it had to be me.


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Invisiblewaves

Registered: 04/03/10
Posts: 2,213
Re: Covid and quarantine [Re: christopera]
    #26536458 - 03/15/20 11:19 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

christopera said:
Quote:

waves said:
The US wasn't prepared for an event like this in the first place, and Trump's total incompetence and stupidity has made the situation exponentially worse.




You are correct. That's why I mentioned our health care incompetence before. This should be a wake up call.




100% agree


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