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Invisibletrees
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Registered: 02/08/09
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: psi]
    #26536050 - 03/15/20 06:47 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I don't mean to be a pessimist, it's just that disease experts have mentioned out loud we are "years away" from a vaccine. I hope it comes sooner, but we can't shut down and quarantine for even 1 year.


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Invisiblepsi
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: trees] * 1
    #26536052 - 03/15/20 06:50 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)



Edited by psi (03/15/20 06:57 AM)


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Invisibletrees
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: psi] * 1
    #26536055 - 03/15/20 07:01 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Here what I found abut the latest vaccine work

Quote:

While there are about 10 vaccine candidates in the works — and at least one of them could begin clinical trials in April — it would still take about three more months to conduct the first stage of human testing and another eight months or so to complete the next stage of the trial process, he added.




https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-12/why-does-it-take-so-long-to-make-a-coronavirus-vaccine

Their prospect is March next year for the nearest vaccine. If that doesn't change, does that change anything we think about the quarantines? If we are to wait until vaccines, then Idk what to think of the quarantines and economic shut down for an entire year.

I'm thinking Wuhans current stabilized state today is an indicator of what might be happening. Wuhans stores are reopening, people walking the streets buying groceries and stuff, while last week they were getting welded shut in their homes getting their asses kicked, but seems pretty calm today.


Edited by trees (03/15/20 07:13 AM)


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: trees]
    #26536060 - 03/15/20 07:09 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Imagine a worldwide program of vaccination and isolation, like we used to eradicate smallpox.

I approve antivaxxer-safari's with vaccine dart guns from landrovers :rainbowcloud:


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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: Asante] * 1
    #26536063 - 03/15/20 07:12 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

lol, if only we had some guns left to shoot the darts.

Looks like U.S. company Moderna is best placed to produce a vaccine.


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Invisiblepsi
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: trees]
    #26536065 - 03/15/20 07:15 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

So not years, on the order of one year. I'd say that means slowing the spread serves a purpose.


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InvisibleTantrika
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: psi] * 2
    #26536067 - 03/15/20 07:17 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)



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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: psi]
    #26536068 - 03/15/20 07:18 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Absolutely.
If they can start producing whilst testing it could be ready to go before the end of the year.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Asante]
    #26536070 - 03/15/20 07:21 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)





Quote:

Asante said:

Prediction! 1000 cases in Holland before the week is out. On sunday you'd think I'd be tripping but with 382 cases on tuesday its not that outlandish anymore, is it? A doubling and a fart and we're in the 4 digit club.






Tuesday 382
Wednesday: 503 (+121)
Thursday: 614 (+111)
Friday: 804 (+190)
Saturday: 959 (+155)
Sunday: 1135 (+176)


.


AMERICANS: THIS IS HAPPENING IN YOUR STATE TOO, AND IN FACT MORE SO BECAUSE MOST OUR PATIENTS ARE KNOWN AND MOST OF YOURS, UNTESTED AND AT LARGE.


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Invisibletrees
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Asante]
    #26536072 - 03/15/20 07:23 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

One statistic that really need to be in those numbers is the % negative tests, do you have those numbers too?

Number of tests admisitered, percent positive and percent negative. Otherwise those numbers aren't meaningful


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Edited by trees (03/15/20 07:25 AM)


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Invisiblepsi
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #26536074 - 03/15/20 07:24 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
lol, if only we had some guns left to shoot the darts.

Looks like U.S. company Moderna is best placed to produce a vaccine.



Yeah I believe they were skipping the usual animal testing phase and going straight to human trials.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Asante]
    #26536075 - 03/15/20 07:25 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

The Dutch are cvery stingy in doing tests. Almost every test is a hit.

I dont have the figures though, I just know that almost no one gets tested.


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OfflineSamskara92
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Asante] * 2
    #26536076 - 03/15/20 07:25 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Welcome to the 4 digit club, Asante! We have cookies


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: psi] * 1
    #26536077 - 03/15/20 07:26 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

psi said:
Quote:

Stable Genius said:
lol, if only we had some guns left to shoot the darts.

Looks like U.S. company Moderna is best placed to produce a vaccine.



Yeah I believe they were skipping the usual animal testing phase and going straight to human trials.





oh joy :sad:


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Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here


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Invisibletrees
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Asante]
    #26536078 - 03/15/20 07:26 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
The Dutch are cvery stingy in doing tests. Almost every test is a hit.

I dont have the figures though, I just know that almost no one gets tested.




That's exactly why those numbers aren't meaningful. If every test is a hit (positive?) Then that means 100× more people are infected than reported ..... which makes all your mortality rates false. Makes the hysteria false. Makes all the speculation false.


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Edited by trees (03/15/20 07:27 AM)


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Samskara92] * 1
    #26536080 - 03/15/20 07:27 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Samskara92 said:
Welcome to the 4 digit club, Asante! We have cookies





Now I no longer have to scroll down on the johns hopkins crisis page yey :aweman:


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: trees]
    #26536083 - 03/15/20 07:30 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

trees said:
Makes the hysteria false. Makes all the speculation false.





Whatever gets you through the day. By South Korea's 0.7% or Italy's 7%, this ain't over yet, and its contagious as heck in the (sub)tropics too so this wont die down in spring.

COVID-19 is an all year thing, an Arctic Area to Tropics thing.




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Invisibletrees
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Asante]
    #26536089 - 03/15/20 07:38 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I know, but it's fully possible that 80% of all shroomerites are infected by now, without symptoms or illness yet, which if you add that to your perspective, it changes the parameters of everything we knew about this disease and what we spoke of it yesterday is now obselete


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: trees]
    #26536093 - 03/15/20 07:40 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

There are so many countries involved yet that we have a good idea of whats up.

20% asymptomatic
60% mild to moderate
8% severe
12% needs hospitalization
0.7-7% dies


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OfflineSamskara92
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Asante]
    #26536100 - 03/15/20 07:46 AM (3 years, 10 months ago)

I personally feel like, given the size of Italy and the way its popping up in the states, we are going to have Italy like situations in a state by state situation. America is definitely going to be the epicenter before it's all said and done


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