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azramb
Stranger


Registered: 06/16/18
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: watermelon mon]
#26510258 - 02/29/20 07:14 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Yeah diabetes, any kind of cardiovascular desies, any kind of respiratory desies, liver desies. Pretty much anyone with almost any kind of chronic illness is moderately to majorly more likely to die.
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azramb
Stranger


Registered: 06/16/18
Posts: 505
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: azramb]
#26510263 - 02/29/20 07:17 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Also people who smoke ciggerettes.
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: deadwk]
#26510284 - 02/29/20 07:25 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
deadwk said: https://twitter.com/aliostad/status/1233668766124400640?s=21
Not good if true
A clinic in the south of Iran has been torched by angry locals after allegedly 10 Corona patients were transferred to this centre
Well, there goes their social order.
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mushboy
modboy



Registered: 04/24/05
Posts: 32,387
Loc: where?
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: BayerPhi] 2
#26510295 - 02/29/20 07:32 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Goes the order?
Have you read about iran??
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: mushboy]
#26510331 - 02/29/20 07:59 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Yes.
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Moonlightblue



Registered: 12/07/12
Posts: 455
Last seen: 14 days, 2 hours
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: BayerPhi]
#26510530 - 02/29/20 10:45 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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tomnl
Beginner



Registered: 06/16/08
Posts: 1,639
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Moonlightblue] 1
#26510638 - 03/01/20 12:36 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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This guy is regularly uploading new vids from inside Wuhan
Greets Tom
-------------------- Been away so long I hardly knew the place Gee, it's good to be back home Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case Honey disconnect the phone I'm back in the USSA You don't know how lucky you are, boy Back in the US Back in the US Back in the USSA
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Malkuthian
Fetus



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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Patlal] 2
#26510745 - 03/01/20 03:51 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Patlal said:
Quote:
bodhisatta said: Normal flu has killed 2900 Americans since September
Yes but now we're talking about the apocalypse that is covid-19.
Your statistic no longer matters.
Comparing the number of infected people from a disease that just now has begun to spread with a disease that is already well established seems somewhat dishonest, to say the least.
It's not that the statistics is wrong, it's what you think they implicate thats wrong...
Again, lets look at what scientists say:
Normal flu: Death rate (CFR): 0,1 Spread rate (RO): 1,3 (every person spread the disease to in average 1,3 persons)
Covid19: Death rate (CFR): 0,25-4,0 % Spread rate (RO): Initial estimates 2,2-2,6. New studies suggest: 4,7-6,6
We can conclude that so far it looks like Covid19 has a lot higher spread rate and death rate than the normal flu. That means that regardless of current number of infected and dead people, Covid19, if established, would be way more deadly than the common flu. If this disease is established it looks like the absolute best possible scenario is somewhere around 4 times as many deaths as the common flu. But all values are early estimates, and they will change drastically depending on if we are able to contain it or not. So it's too early to blow the apocalypse whistle I would say. But it's sure past the displayed naivity...
Most people are not able to grasp the concept of statistics and use them to achieve a greater understanding. The unfortunate thing here is that the people without this ability seem to think more hightly of their own capabilities than the people who action can fathom the concepts... That's almost more scary than Covid19... Reminds me of the dunning kruger effect.
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unam sanctum


Registered: 04/20/11
Posts: 6,702
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: tomnl] 1
#26510749 - 03/01/20 04:03 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Found this interesting...
Quote:
New York Times said:
Coronavirus may have spread in Washington State for weeks, researchers say.
Researchers who have examined the genomes of two coronavirus infections in Washington State say the similarities between the cases suggest the virus may have been spreading in the state for weeks.
Washington State had the first confirmed coronavirus case in the United States last month, in a patient from which health officials took a sample on Jan. 19. But another case that surfaced in the region this week probably descended from it, based on an analysis of the virus’s genetic sequence.
The findings suggest that the virus has been spreading in the community for close to six weeks, according to one of the scientists who compared the sequences, Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the University of Washington.
If that is true, it could mean that anywhere from 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,” said Mike Famulare, a principal research scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash., who performed the analysis. Those cases, if they exist, have thus far been undetected.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.html
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,958
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: unam sanctum] 3
#26510761 - 03/01/20 04:26 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Air pollution in China has decreased sharphly as COVID qyarantine ground production to a halt:
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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unam sanctum


Registered: 04/20/11
Posts: 6,702
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Malkuthian]
#26510767 - 03/01/20 04:40 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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also worth a read, everything in this article is sourced:
https://medium.com/@amwren/forget-about-the-death-rate-this-is-why-you-should-be-worried-about-the-coronavirus-890fbf9c4de6
Quote:
The worrying parts:
The virus is highly infectious, potentially nearly twice as infectious as the flu. It might be far higher, there isn’t anywhere near enough data yet.
Infected people could spread the disease for up to two weeks before showing symptoms.
Some people don’t show any symptoms at all and could infect an enormous number of people.
In The Atlantic, Marc Lipsitch, a leading epidemiologist at Harvard reported that “that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19”.
This was last week and while ridiculed at the time, his assumptions are now the generally accepted position among epidemiologists.
Do you think the U.S. government would weld people shut inside their domiciles like the Chinese did?
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1703503427818
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sharpie117
Living the dream

Registered: 06/24/13
Posts: 461
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: unam sanctum]
#26510778 - 03/01/20 05:02 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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The thread title refers to this as SARS 2 Instead of trying to compare it to the common flu how does this compare to the first SARS outbreak in 2002?
That seemed a lot less contagious but with a much higher death rate and disappeared after two years.
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,958
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: unam sanctum]
#26510782 - 03/01/20 05:12 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
unam sanctum said:
Quote:
In The Atlantic, Marc Lipsitch, a leading epidemiologist at Harvard reported that “that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19”.
This was last week and while ridiculed at the time, his assumptions are now the generally accepted position among epidemiologists.
Quote:
Malkuthian said:
Covid19: Death rate (CFR): 0,25-4,0 % Spread rate (RO): Initial estimates 2,2-2,6. New studies suggest: 4,7-6,6
Combine the two:
7.7 billion people
40-70% = 3-5 billion
mortality 0.25-4%
= 7.5-200 million dead
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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Malkuthian
Fetus



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Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: sharpie117]
#26510790 - 03/01/20 05:18 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
sharpie117 said: The thread title refers to this as SARS 2 Instead of trying to compare it to the common flu how does this compare to the first SARS outbreak in 2002?
That seemed a lot less contagious but with a much higher death rate and disappeared after two years.
It disappeared due to spread prevention. As writen in my last post Covid19 has a lot higher spread rate than the comon flu (And SARS), which off course makes it harder to stop. SARS reached a handful of dountries, whereas COvid19 has already infected >50 countries. The likelihood of containing the spread seems quite low at this point, don't you agree?
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sharpie117
Living the dream

Registered: 06/24/13
Posts: 461
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante]
#26510792 - 03/01/20 05:19 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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7.5-200 million is a huge difference.
SARS had a death rate of 9.6%
The latest figures I found are predicting the current death rate at 1%
I’m definitely prepped for the worst but not to worried yet. Time will tell I guess.
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sharpie117
Living the dream

Registered: 06/24/13
Posts: 461
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: sharpie117]
#26510797 - 03/01/20 05:24 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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I do agree abut the spread rate though. Virus the show signs and kill early are normally less effective.
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,958
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: sharpie117]
#26510803 - 03/01/20 05:32 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
sharpie117 said:
The latest figures I found are predicting the current death rate at 1%
If that's the case, with 3-5 billion people, 30-50 million people, its like the Spanish Flu or a World War.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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sharpie117
Living the dream

Registered: 06/24/13
Posts: 461
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante]
#26510828 - 03/01/20 05:55 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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The thought of friends and family dying is terrible but in the big picture that’s like a year of population growth.
Is it that much of a dent to mankind.
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,958
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: sharpie117]
#26510836 - 03/01/20 06:03 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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You're thinking of anonymous masses vanishing.
There will be great societal disruption by all the many heavy illnesses and deaths.
Air pollution in China has decreased sharphly as COVID quarantine ground production to a halt:

They are no longer producing what we all need and this is only a preventive measure.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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sharpie117
Living the dream

Registered: 06/24/13
Posts: 461
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante]
#26510844 - 03/01/20 06:15 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Producing what we need or want?
I know you are into climate change hasn’t the virus done what we couldn’t.
Dont want people to die but is this exponential population growth sustainable?
Thanks for pointing out the difference is the inability to contain due to infection rate.
Good luck everyone
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