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 Asante
Omnicyclion prophet
 
Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 87,330
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 Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus  [Re: ManianFH]
#26524330 - 03/08/20 05:45 PM (4 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
mick said:
I wonder if that means silver might move with it
Silver will catapult I think. The gap between silver and gold has increased, silver is a voilatile and panic metal.
Theres going to be panic.
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Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here
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 deej101
Stranger
Registered: 02/27/20
Posts: 11
Last seen: 3 years, 10 months
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Asante]
#26545427 - 03/19/20 08:03 PM (4 years, 28 days ago) |
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open your eyes ppl
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
 
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,164
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB 
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: deej101]
#26545607 - 03/19/20 10:07 PM (4 years, 28 days ago) |
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I've kept a short position this whole time, but I've mostly been cashing out gains pretty regularly and moving gold into stocks. I've got some puts on financials. I think it's only about 2 or 3 weeks from peak fear, but I'm buying on the way down.
Coca-cola
Disney
Microsoft
General Dynamics
Some really good stuff.
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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,164
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26545609 - 03/19/20 10:09 PM (4 years, 28 days ago) |
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If I had more balls when this thread started I could have made 100k, but I made safe little 2-3% positions and cashed them out every couple of days. Try again in a decade I guess.
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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Sempeur
Tourist
Registered: 01/12/20
Posts: 59
Loc: Canada
Last seen: 3 years, 4 months
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26549002 - 03/21/20 02:03 PM (4 years, 26 days ago) |
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said:
If I had more balls when this thread started I could have made 100k, but I made safe little 2-3% positions and cashed them out every couple of days. Try again in a decade I guess.
I think there's still money to be made off the volatility, but it's definitely more of a gamble at this point.
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Be strange, but don't be a stranger.
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,164
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Sempeur]
#26549213 - 03/21/20 04:07 PM (4 years, 26 days ago) |
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I'm thinking there will be a relief rally after the fed eases liquidity ratios for the banks on the 26th, followed by more downside.
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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Kittlebean
Registered: 01/05/17
Posts: 192
Loc: UK 
Last seen: 14 hours, 51 minutes
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26553328 - 03/23/20 03:36 PM (4 years, 24 days ago) |
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Any further opinions on silver over the next month? Looking to put some money into a few things, silver being one of them.
Recently broke through a support from 2015 and 2018. Thinking of holding on for a little longer to see if we get a further dip 
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Deekay
Registered: 09/07/08
Posts: 3,220
Loc: 
Last seen: 2 years, 8 months
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Kittlebean]
#26554145 - 03/23/20 10:19 PM (4 years, 24 days ago) |
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Quote:
Kittlebean said:
Thinking of holding on for a little longer to see if we get a further dip
good idea
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,589
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 5 hours, 47 minutes
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 Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Kittlebean]
#26554755 - 03/24/20 09:15 AM (4 years, 23 days ago) |
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Yessh, that is a nasty chart. I would advocate allocating to Bitcoin if you're looking for an inflation hedge that also has other upside catalysts going for it.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥  ╥π╬...
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Kittlebean
Registered: 01/05/17
Posts: 192
Loc: UK
Last seen: 14 hours, 51 minutes
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: geokills]
#26554859 - 03/24/20 10:27 AM (4 years, 23 days ago) |
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Quote:
Yessh, that is a nasty chart.
Nasty chart?
This is partly to protect against inflation however also as a general investment. Its not something I planned on taking out anytime soon, just thought I would buy in whilst the price was low.
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Asante
Omnicyclion prophet
Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 87,330
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Kittlebean]
#26554875 - 03/24/20 10:36 AM (4 years, 23 days ago) |
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Bill Gates on a TED stream just now: "Nothing like this has happened to the economy in our lives."
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Omnicyclion.org
higher knowledge starts here
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,589
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 5 hours, 47 minutes
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 Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Kittlebean]
#26554993 - 03/24/20 11:52 AM (4 years, 23 days ago) |
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Quote:
Kittlebean said:
Quote:
Yessh, that is a nasty chart.
Nasty chart?
This is partly to protect against inflation however also as a general investment. Its not something I planned on taking out anytime soon, just thought I would buy in whilst the price was low.
From a price perspective (which is generally the most honest and unbiased perspective one can take), the series of lower highs and the recent plunge through multi-year support does not portend future positive price action.
I own silver, gold and palladium as part of my aggregate asset allocation strategy, however I have no interest in buying more. I personally believe that the crypto markets can provide a lot of the same inflationary hedging benefits that precious metals have historically offered, alongside greater utility with regard to remittances and second layer solutions involving decentralized finance and other smart contract iterations. Because crypto is a much smaller market, it does carry more risk. Which is to say, precious metals are very likely to always hold some value, whereas crypto may not. On the other hand, this comparatively small market and increased risk also allows for a potentially outsized reward if the adoption of crypto related services continues to expand.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Kittlebean
Registered: 01/05/17
Posts: 192
Loc: UK
Last seen: 14 hours, 51 minutes
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: geokills]
#26555290 - 03/24/20 03:11 PM (4 years, 23 days ago) |
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Quote:
From a price perspective (which is generally the most honest and unbiased perspective one can take), the series of lower highs and the recent plunge through multi-year support does not portend future positive price action.
I see what your saying. Still only just getting into trading and investments so have a lot to learn. The fact that it's dipped below this support level, does that not provide a good opportunity for some longer term gains? Out of interest what do you think was the main reason for its surge in price in 2010 followed by the downtrend and then years of sideways movement?
When it comes to crypto I do hold several positions, some doing better than others, however I am cautious of putting more money into it right now whilst I am still learning due to the volatility of it. I guess I'm looking for more long term options that provide a bit more stability.
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Tripsurfer
Bring Back Asante!
Registered: 08/01/12
Posts: 7,129
Loc: West of Windward
Last seen: 1 month, 1 day
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Kittlebean]
#26555370 - 03/24/20 03:52 PM (4 years, 23 days ago) |
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Im pretty salty I let myself wait for BTC to hit %4,5K again after the big plummet. Been going up ever since
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Ach en wee ben ik de klos, met mijn boog schoot ik een albatros...
A philosopher is a person who knows less and less about more and more, until he knows nothing about everything.
 
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ManianFH
living in perverty
Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,996
Last seen: 7 hours, 47 minutes
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Tripsurfer]
#26555835 - 03/24/20 08:02 PM (4 years, 23 days ago) |
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that market goes all over the place. youll probably have another shot
in related news, looks like the Fed is working to create a digital dollar, taking a page out of the crypto playbook. I wonder how the crypto market will respond if it gets up and running
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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "
ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,589
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 5 hours, 47 minutes
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 Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Kittlebean]
#26556755 - 03/25/20 10:11 AM (4 years, 22 days ago) |
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Quote:
Kittlebean said:
Quote:
From a price perspective (which is generally the most honest and unbiased perspective one can take), the series of lower highs and the recent plunge through multi-year support does not portend future positive price action.
I see what your saying. Still only just getting into trading and investments so have a lot to learn. The fact that it's dipped below this support level, does that not provide a good opportunity for some longer term gains? Out of interest what do you think was the main reason for its surge in price in 2010 followed by the downtrend and then years of sideways movement?
The ultimate goal is obviously to buy lower than you sell. However, when a long term support level is broken, it often turns into a resistance level, whereby those who had accumulated at or above that mark, now use that mark as a price target in attempts to "get their money back" by selling whenever price rises back to that level. Now I don't know whether or not silver is going to be higher in 1 or 5 or 10 or 50 years. The reason for the surge in precious metal prices around 2010 had a lot to do with the vast expansion of federal bank balance sheets, which is another way of saying that governments worldwide were fabricating money in attempts to stimulate their economies after the 2008 financial crisis. This level of money expansion caused people to worry about the risk of inflationary pressures, which investors tend to hedge by holding tangible assets such as gold and silver. That trade worked for a while, until it didn't. Hyperinflationary incidents did not come to pass amongst the world's most developed economies, and the economic numbers did turn positive, driving money back into equities and away from traditional safe haven assets like the metals.
Well, here we are again, with massive stimulus being implemented by government in attempts to deal with the economic halt brought on by the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 epidemic. So I can generally see why people might think the metals trade could work again here. And maybe it will, I just don't know. But if you're going to take that thesis, at least go with the chart that's moving higher instead of breaking down. Gold is showing considerably better price action than silver.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,164
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: geokills]
#26557391 - 03/25/20 04:30 PM (4 years, 22 days ago) |
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US bonds turned negative for the first time in 5 years or so today. The banks are saying how well capitalized they are and well funded, but I think long term the banks will suffer from razer thin margins.
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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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deadwk
00101011
Registered: 06/17/09
Posts: 8,890
Loc: Canada, eh?
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26559931 - 03/26/20 07:56 PM (4 years, 21 days ago) |
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What does everyone think about FDIC lowering the required reserve for banks in the US down to 0%? To be honest I'm not that familiar with how all this stuff works, but that seems pretty concerning to me. Combined with this kind of tweets from the FDIC https://twitter.com/FDICgov/status/1242455082551164934, seems somewhat concerning.
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,164
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: deadwk] 2
#26560031 - 03/26/20 08:52 PM (4 years, 21 days ago) |
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It's a moral hazard. Bank reserve ratios and stress tests are out the window. They don't mean anything anymore. Banks can lend as much money as they want with no reprecussions and they are being encouraged to lend money to small businesses without regard. It will lead to a bunch of zombie companies like Japan has, eventually. It might take 2 or 3 years but unprofitable companies will be able to keep hanging around and just scraping by with record high debt loads.
There is a really good graph I can't find right now, but it shows the profitability of Japan's,Europe, and the USA banks from 1985ish to present. Basically Japan pioneered unconvential monetary policy and zero interest rates. It's banks never recovered from 1989 or 1990 or whatever. Then Europe went to zero after the finanial crisis in 2009 and never went positive again. Deutche Bank is a zombie walking into bankruptcy. The US banks recovered because they could raise rates above zero during the last 10 years and had profitable interest rates, but the virus crisis will ensure that interest rates are never meaningfully raised above zero again, and the US banks will follow Europe's banking malaise, zombie companies, and unprofitabilty.
So China is the one of the only places left in town with good banking margins.
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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,164
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: The Economic and Investment Consequences of the COVID-19 Coronavirus [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26560270 - 03/27/20 12:00 AM (4 years, 20 days ago) |
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The US and European banks will have the same asset quality and non-performing loan problems as China, but without the credit spread margins or foreign reserves of the government.
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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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