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Invisibleblewmeanie
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Samskara92] * 5
    #26492561 - 02/18/20 09:48 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Even if this doesn't significantly spread outside of China, we're already in very bad shape. They haven't been producing much for the past two months, and there's no sign of them ramping back up any time soon.

REALLY think about that.

Almost everything is either built there, or is dependent on raw materials that are processed and shipped from china.

I'm an analyst for one of the largest eCommerce companies in the world, and I can tell you, our inventory is depleting quickly. We have a number of warehouses, and one of the thing's ive noticed is, if I look at the inventory for an item, I'll see X number available in one warehouse, and Y number available in another, but then an inventory level of 9999 in something like a customization warehouse, that doesn't actually house anything. Meaning, we're faking our inventory, to keep sales rolling in, while hoping to back fill the orders later.

Even if the virus itself is a big nothing burger from here on out, we're in some serious trouble. Production can ramp up tomorrow (it wont), and we're still in trouble.


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InvisiblemushboyMDiscord
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: blewmeanie]
    #26492630 - 02/18/20 10:49 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

time for 'merica to step up. open up the plants fellas were back in business!

were just as doomed now as we ever were.


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Invisibleblewmeanie
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: mushboy] * 1
    #26492639 - 02/18/20 11:03 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Produce with what? The raw materials mostly come from China. Your tshirt may be made in the ya, but the fabric was made in China.


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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: mushboy] * 2
    #26492817 - 02/19/20 04:44 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Great point and insider information Blewmeanie. Yes, humanity got hit right in the production center.

700.000.000 PEOPLE IN QUARANTINE.

Let that sink in folks! China is on unprecedented lockdown.

A big disaster looming is that most MEDICATIONS are made in china, including critical ones. It takes time to create production capacity elsewhere. During that time people need alternative medications and that switch WILL kill people. They have their very specific prescription drug for a very specific reason.

Quote:

mushboy said:
Way deadly than coronavirus. In fact I had this illness last month.





Wrong. If you take TODAY'S number of total coinfirmed caases, many of whom have barely begun beng sick, and divide by number of fatalities, its in the ballpark of the Spanish Flu. If it becomes a pandemic where 60% of the world gets it, we could be looking at 1 billion people getting slife threatening pneumonia with all hospitals overwhelmed so no respirators available. That would drive up the mortality considerably.

THIS IS SARS-2. IF PANDEMIC, FAR OVER 100 MILLION PEOPLE MAY DIE.

Its not a time to panic but it IS a time for making sensible preparations to bug in.

You can say "but the Titanic is unsinkable!" all you like, but the WHO declared COVID to be public enemy number one where it comes to threats to humanity at this time.

Taxonomically the virus is called SARS-CoV-2. Since CoV means CoronaVirus and thus is redundent, we are literallty dealing with SARS-2 here and the situation in China is thus that they quarabntined 700 million people and are letting their economy which they sacrifice everything for, wither. That isnt for nothing.


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OfflineLogicaL ChaosM
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante]
    #26492822 - 02/19/20 04:51 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

700 million Chinese people have been quarantined?! :badtrip:

This is bad. Real bad. I looked up China's population, its said to be at 1.44 Billion people: http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/china-population/

That means about half of China's population has been quarantined. Thats insane :eek:


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante]
    #26492823 - 02/19/20 04:53 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Lets say you have an American producer of Valium, that makes its own Valium.

What they typically do is react 2-methylamino-5-chlorobenzoquinone and ethyl glycinate in their reaction vessel, purify, crystallize, tabletize and package.

Guess what:

They get their 2-methylamino-5-chlorobenzoquinone intermediate from China.

With Chinas ports down, no more intermediate and thus no more valium production from the american plant.

Much more often, they order the medication itself from China and just tabletize and package it. I mean, who competes with $750 a kilo, right?

Thats the issue, and not just in pharmacy, with food additive and manufacturing intermediates like for paint and plastics too.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante]
    #26492824 - 02/19/20 04:55 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

China is preventing SARS-2 from fixing their overpopulation problem THE HARD WAY.

They have every reason to take this very serious, including many they aren't telling.


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OfflineOvoidhunter
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante] * 1
    #26492840 - 02/19/20 05:23 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Think of the terrorist and the mad scientist trying to harvest it and spread it to more undeveloped nations. They have to be out there. If it gets to some of these places with weak infrastructure it's a rap.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Ovoidhunter]
    #26492845 - 02/19/20 05:28 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Ovoidhunter said:
Think of the terrorist and the mad scientist trying to harvest it and spread it to more undeveloped nations. They have to be out there. If it gets to some of these places with weak infrastructure it's a rap.





Africa has a large Chinese presence. China "makes it" from African raw materials generally. So, there are more than a few more affluent than usual Chinese in Africa.

So where do you go when you flee the pandemic? Your rich uncle in Africa.

Africa had 2 places that could detect the virua. When they got 30, immediately Egypt discovered a confirmed case.

Its already in. :sad:


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OfflineOvoidhunter
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante]
    #26492850 - 02/19/20 05:39 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Yeah, you can't keep tabs on 700 million people. They'll be a lot of private jets and rich folk evacuating.


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Offlinetomnl
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Ovoidhunter] * 3
    #26493030 - 02/19/20 08:37 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Viruses have 3 stages:

Stage 1: Individuals are infected but its still traceable who they might have infected.
Stage 2: Infected have risen to a point where retracement is impossible
Stage 3: Number of infected have risen to a point where containment is the only solution to slow the spread.

So China is of course in a stage 3. Vietnam is entering a stage 3 as well. Lets see which countries are stage 2, South Korea is a definite stage 2, 56 infected total, 20 extra since yesterday. England, a stage 2 or was very close to being stage 2? Germany still stage 1. What about France, its quiet on the western front!
Iran might be stage 2 as well with the news of today..



Of course, the real danger are ´silent pockets´ where the disease is ravaging, undetected. More likely in West Europe, and US, since we are used to having the flu and people dont even go to the hospital for it anymore.


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Edited by tomnl (02/19/20 09:16 AM)


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Offlinetomnl
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: tomnl]
    #26493036 - 02/19/20 08:40 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Scary thing about Vietnam is: 6 days ago they quarantined an area with app. 10.000 people off, and since then there is no news about it coming out of the country.


--------------------
Been away so long I hardly knew the place
Gee, it's good to be back home
Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case
Honey disconnect the phone
I'm back in the USSA
You don't know how lucky you are, boy
Back in the US
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OfflineTripsurfer
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: tomnl]
    #26493284 - 02/19/20 11:46 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

I am waiting for India to join the frenzy


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OfflineMalkuthian
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Asante] * 2
    #26493312 - 02/19/20 12:03 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Cases don't seem to pop up the west as excepted based on the spread...
Why?

Well, we dont aktively search for cases.
When this first was reported from Wuhan we actively searched for cases among people coming from Wuhan. And people that had been there contacted the hospitals as a precaution based on often farily mild symptoms.

But the person to person spread is basically nonexistent in most western countries. So why is that? The spread rate is assumed quite high which means its extremely unlikely this has not spread further. So were are the infected?

Could it be that we have a lot of unaware infected people at home watching TV? That it has spread a lot more then we know, but the symptoms are to mild for them to get checked? I would say that this is very likely. If that will be continue to be the case or not is another question...

Another thing: China cant keep up with controls, they are more or less only checking people with fairly severe symptoms. That means that the confirmed cases are not the whole lot, but only the bad cases. The tip of the ice berg in the Dr John video that was posted recently...

So how many are not confirmed because of to mild symptoms?
And how many are not confirmed bencause of no symptoms?

Conclusion: to use the deaths divided by confirmed cases is an extremely bad way to estimate the Caste fatality Rate.

I would really like to see some updated statistics on the general health and the age of the deceased. The CFR in a healthy population might be very low?

In the last posted Dr John Video, he states that researches think the CFR is between 0,25 and 4, based on the current statistics. I.e. based on how this is progressing in China. How is the general health in the highly infected area compared to the general health in the west? Or age distribution for that matter...

I would like to se a researchers analysis on the lack of spread in the west...


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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: Malkuthian]
    #26493489 - 02/19/20 02:12 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Just reposting this vid, which i think will prove important in the coming weeks, while right now the people are walking off this ship to fly back to their home countries, thinking they are virus free...



Edit: video being censored, new link


--------------------
Been away so long I hardly knew the place
Gee, it's good to be back home
Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case
Honey disconnect the phone
I'm back in the USSA
You don't know how lucky you are, boy
Back in the US
Back in the US
Back in the USSA


Edited by tomnl (02/20/20 12:17 AM)


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Invisibledeadwk
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: tomnl] * 1
    #26493597 - 02/19/20 03:18 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Video says it was removed by the poster.

--

Not looking forward to travelling to Vegas tomorrow. Probability of getting infected while travelling to LA and then to Vegas is probably low, but regardless a bit concerned.


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: mushboy]
    #26493736 - 02/19/20 05:07 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

mushboy said:
Way deadly than coronavirus. In fact I had this illness last month.



Just another bump for sanity


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Invisiblenatedawgnow
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26493806 - 02/19/20 05:45 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

2018-2019 flu season killed 60,000 plus people in the US alone. 2017-2018 season was even worse with 70,000+.

The flu kills a ton of people but no one bats an eye at it.


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InvisiblemushboyMDiscord
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: natedawgnow] * 2
    #26494027 - 02/19/20 08:08 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

I feel this thread has become an echo chamber of panic and fear.

If I'm wrong I apologize and were all dead I guess:death:


Edited by mushboy (02/19/20 08:21 PM)


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OfflineLogicaL ChaosM
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [COVID 19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 aka "Wuhan Coronavirus"] [Re: natedawgnow] * 1
    #26494313 - 02/20/20 01:24 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

It reminds me of the mass shootings controversy: Since more people die from car accidents per year, we should not focus on mass shootings.

I disagree with this and still think the Wuhan Virus is a big deal even if more people die per year from the Flu.


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