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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Political Market Wagering * 3
    #26472731 - 02/06/20 08:14 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Let me preface this by saying that I am, at best, a novice at this.
That being said, I figured it might be fun to explain how and why I make wagers in PredictIt's political markets.

The following is a brief summary of how this market works per their website:
Quote:

You make predictions by buying shares. The price of a share, between 1 and 99 cents, corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place. Buy ‘Yes’ shares when the price is too low, when you think your fellow traders are underestimating this likelihood. Buy ‘No’ shares when you think they are too optimistic.

The value of your shares will change over time. You may decide to sell your shares later on, either to take some profit or stop a loss. Or, you can hold onto your shares until the market closes. At that point, if the event in the market has taken place, we’ll redeem ‘Yes’ shares at $1. If it has not, ‘No’ shares will have that $1 value instead.

Notice that some markets feature questions that have simple yes or no answers, while others have several possible outcomes. Each of these outcomes is known as a ‘contract.’




There are people who can make money year round in any market.  I'm not one of those.  What I do is look for markets where I think that I know something that puts me ahead of the general public.  The first thing to understand is that you aren't really betting on the outcome.  You are betting on the points at which the market swings away from the realistic outcome.  So if, for example, you think that Bernie is going to win Iowa 1 year before the election and you see that Bernie YES in Iowa are going for 20 cents per, you buy them because you know that the day before the election those will be selling for 70 cents. 

ALWAYS CAREFULLY READ THE RULES OF A MARKET
seriously though, people have fucked themselves many times by not knowing in advance how ties are settled or by what metric the winner would be selected by for the purposes of settling a market.

Don't bet on degenerate markets like "how many times will trump tweet between 2/4/2020 and 2/9/2020"
There are a lot of these BS markets and I really don't know how to gain an edge over the public in them.

Do not hold your winning shares until the market closes.  Sell them at a profit as election night gets underway and then bet the swings as election night results trickle out.  Check twitter as well as MSM outlets for rumors that will influence the market.  Check the buy and sell prices to see how much resistance there is to a big swing before you pull the trigger on a rumor.  Watch the comments in a given market and know the highest rated bettors on PredictIt.  When they show up in chat and pump a contract it can rapidly influence the market.  Never, ever, ever hold past 90 cents.  It just isn't worth it IMO.  Take your profit at 90 cents because the extra dime isn't worth the loss of liquidity.  Some markets don't resolve for weeks and you can make up the dime on another contract somewhere else.

Don't get carried away with long shots.  If a contract is at 3 cents, its almost always for a reason.  The market isn't generally that dumb.

Resist the urge to day trade small fractions.  It isn't worth it in my opinion.  You can spend all week gaining 5 cent here and there just to have it wiped out by one bad swing and now you're stuck with shares of some shit you didn't maybe even want until the market resolves or you take your loss.

I find the best value in bets that depend on the outcome of another event.  As an example, I think that Bernie is going to crush NH but even if he doesn't, I know that Biden is gonna crater.  Given that, I felt it was a good bet to pick up shares of Bernie and steyer throughout Biden's "southern firewall" states because I know that everyone loves a frontrunner and Biden isn't going to be that after NH.  Bernie because I think he will be the frontrunner and steyer because he's spent a lot of money in SC and NV and is polling well in SC right now but is only valued in single digits. (yes, I know i just said not to bet on single digit contracts)

That's all for now, I'll probably update this post as I think of more stuff.

Someone who makes money investing in other types of market could probably give bettor advice than I can about this.
I feel like maybe qman might have a gem or 2 in his back pocket.

Update: Pay attention to your buy and sell orders.  I just sold 100 shares for triple what I paid but I had decided to hold them until they hit 5x and forgot to cancel the sell order


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Edited by ballsalsa (02/06/20 08:35 PM)

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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26473266 - 02/07/20 04:13 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Thanks bal!
I am going in hot, will post loses/gains/ wagers soon.

I would just add, just like the stock market, it takes money to make money.

Edited by SirTripAlot (02/07/20 05:36 AM)

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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26473467 - 02/07/20 08:44 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

be careful.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26473726 - 02/07/20 10:54 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Remember guys: if you lose, that means you’re due for a win so keep betting!


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #26473741 - 02/07/20 11:14 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

:no:
But when you win, make sure to remember to hit up your boy, Bernie


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26473816 - 02/07/20 11:52 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Just 50 shares of :

What will be the US advance GDP estimate for the first quarter?

1.8% to 2.2%

Bought them in part due to the Average hourly earnings rise of 0.2%.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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Invisiblenooneman
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26473836 - 02/07/20 12:00 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

It's the same as any kind of gambling. I've never liked gambling personally.

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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: nooneman]
    #26473851 - 02/07/20 12:10 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Your right, I did options before. I bought a put that turned out to be a net loss of around $4,000. Thats alot of cash for me and it completely killed my slush fund for a year. In alot of instances Blackjack has better odds. I do understand why coke is synonymous with Wall Street.

The share price of the above was .47 cents., so no where close.



--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Edited by SirTripAlot (02/07/20 12:12 PM)

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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: nooneman]
    #26473929 - 02/07/20 01:06 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Everything is gambling.  Sometimes you wager money and other times you wager time/effort


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26473967 - 02/07/20 01:40 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Bloomberg and pete overvalued in most markets currently IMO.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26474006 - 02/07/20 02:06 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Have you factored in the shenanigans that are yet to come against Bernie?  :smirk:


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26474105 - 02/07/20 03:04 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Absolutely.


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26476715 - 02/09/20 10:10 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

This is the exact scenario I based my current political wagers on.  Spot on analysis IMO:
Quote:

The Ecstatic said:

538 projected Bernie to win all 50 states, he has the easiest shot. And the centrist candidates don’t get to pool their delegates unless it goes to a contest convention, which won’t happen as long as they’re diluting the centrist vote. All Bernie has to do is win NH, NV, and MAYBE SC, and he’ll steamroll Biden in Super Tuesday, win big in California and Texas and it’s over by April. Pete’s base is too monochromatic to be a challenge, so he’s done, Klobuchar has the personality of a dead raccoon she’ll be lucky to place 3rd anywhere so she can’t keep going, and Biden is growing more senile by the day. Honestly the establishment’s best chance is to coalesce around Warren, but she’s already promised too much progressive shit (and swore off PAC money) that if she backtracks anymore she just comes off like a lying Bernie spoiler (more than she already has). That’s why they’re trying to hype Bloomberg now, they see the writing on the wall and their last card is to just let the billionaire take the wheel and try to bribe enough people to keep Bernie from winning the nomination on the first ballot.




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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26476742 - 02/09/20 10:25 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Hey thanks buddy :love:


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic] * 1
    #26476750 - 02/09/20 10:30 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Great minds think alike.


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InvisibleTexas Honey BadgerM
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26477255 - 02/09/20 04:55 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Good thread:highfive:


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #26477733 - 02/09/20 10:42 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Thoughts on Bloomberg's chances in TN?


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OfflineBigbadwooof
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26477755 - 02/09/20 10:57 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Thanks for the pro tips, Ballz. You definitely covered a few things that wouldn't have occurred to me right off the bat.


--------------------
"It is no measure of good health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society," - Jiddu Krishnamurti
FARTS
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Every one of you should see this video.
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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26477850 - 02/10/20 12:41 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Looks like his whole strategy is going  after Super Tuesday states. His ensamble consists of security and videographers...this type of strategy will fail. Now throw in his stance on guns, and there is no chance he gets any meaningful support in TN.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26478176 - 02/10/20 09:20 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

ballsalsa said:
Thoughts on Bloomberg's chances in TN?




I’m not sure if you’re being serious or not :lol:


I’m assuming this means there’s been recent polling in TN that shows Bloomberg doing well? In that case, it’s not much different than Steyer polling third in SC. These billionaires are dumping millions of dollars of ads in states where no other campaign is really spending much just yet. As the primary gets closer, these voters will coalesce around the frontrunners. I don’t see Bloomberg winning a single state, he has no constituency.


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #26478190 - 02/10/20 09:26 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

I don't know how well he's polling but the markets seem to have him way overinflated in value across the board, especially in the south.  I think he's well over 20 cents in TN rn. Might just be because Biden bettors don't know where to flee yet.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26478210 - 02/10/20 09:33 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

That’s probably the case


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26479333 - 02/10/20 09:48 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Where's Enlil? He likes gambling

Edited by ballsalsa (02/10/20 09:49 PM)

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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26479639 - 02/11/20 06:51 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

I don't gamble, bro


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil]
    #26479930 - 02/11/20 10:34 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

But you like it


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #26484518 - 02/14/20 12:03 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

The last couple days have been interesting.  Someone has spent a ton of money pumping Bloomberg in every place that Biden has been slipping.  It seemed like an obvious effort to boost bloomberg in the markets that had the smallest pools but still, it must have cost a fortune.  I saw it starting, sold 2/3 of my berniebucks and bought back in when the bloomberg wave started to recede, so I did alright so far.  Seems like the market is gradually correcting on bloomberg across the board but its gonna take some polling to move much quicker.

Regarding SC.  I made a "big" play on Steyer here, not because I think he'll win but because I think the market will value him at 25  cents by the time voting starts and I plan to sell him off by then


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26484920 - 02/14/20 08:04 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Thats decent speculation about Styer. I just grabbed 14cents on Bootyjud to win NV. Pretty sure he will have a much stronger showing and plan to dump it before voting starts. I would think the share should hit around the 30s.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot] * 1
    #26485344 - 02/14/20 12:07 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

I don’t see Pete winning another state, NV probably your last opportunity to cash out on his stock.


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #26485889 - 02/14/20 06:20 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Market dropped by -4 since we talked. (I if I am right) that hopefully will be the bottom floor. I really think.....all of the (fake) Bottyjudge Iowa/NH momentum will show up soon.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Edited by SirTripAlot (02/14/20 06:21 PM)

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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26486001 - 02/14/20 07:21 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

I'm pretty sure he spent the fake momentum he had. Unless something dramatic happens in the next week or so, he's likely to continue his decline.  Both he and kloby have narrow to nonexistent paths forward. 
My prediction for Nevada is that we will see similar results to the last 2 contests except with Bernie pulling a little further away due to his appealing to a broader base while pete, kloby, biden, and warren continue to compete for the same space.
Steyer is actually somewhat likely to do better than most people expect which will help his narrative going into SC and thereby strengthen bernie by splitting biden's last remaining base of support

Bernie: 35% +/-5
Steyer: 15% +/-5
Warren: 12% +/-3
Biden: 12% +/-5
Pete: 12% +/-5
Kloby: 12% +/-5
Other: 2% +/- 4

full disclosure: I'm getting creamed on my SC Steyer play right now, so take my predictions with a grain of salt, lol.

Edited by ballsalsa (02/14/20 07:23 PM)

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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26486009 - 02/14/20 07:26 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

ballsalsa said:
Bernie: 35% +/-5
Steyer: 15% +/-5
Warren: 12% +/-3
Biden: 12% +/-5
Pete: 12% +/-5
Kloby: 12% +/-5
Other: 2% +/- 4



I'll ask a question that was asked before, that nobody answered:

If Bernie continues to win every state with 35% (or some similar number), he wouldn't get to 50%.  Does that mean there's a brokered convention that the establishment democrats then get to decide?

In that case, the establishment candidates shouldn't drop out if they want to win.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #26486029 - 02/14/20 07:36 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

there are money constraints. 
More importantly, people like to vote for the winner.  The more Bernie can appear to be the consistent winner, the more bandwagon voters will flock to him.  Keep in mind that most people don't pay attention to this stuff the way we do around here.  They're just starting to pay attention now that votes are being cast


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26486101 - 02/14/20 08:30 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

We will see what the market tells us.:thumbup:
I think Bootyjudge is a commanding public speaker/charisma compared to the rest, in short he is a skillful politician that wont go away easy. The momentum just helped.I will eat crow if I have too. (Def not voting for him)


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Edited by SirTripAlot (02/14/20 09:09 PM)

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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #26486525 - 02/15/20 05:21 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

That's my understanding. That's why I think its important for the rest of these Bozos to stay in and dilute each other's delegate counts. Even if Bernie doesn't have enough to guarantee the nomination it will be much harder to screw him if nobody is close.


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"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 2
    #26486613 - 02/15/20 07:01 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

ballsalsa said:
Bernie: 35% +/-5
Steyer: 15% +/-5
Warren: 12% +/-3
Biden: 12% +/-5
Pete: 12% +/-5
Kloby: 12% +/-5
Other: 2% +/- 4



I'll ask a question that was asked before, that nobody answered:

If Bernie continues to win every state with 35% (or some similar number), he wouldn't get to 50%.  Does that mean there's a brokered convention that the establishment democrats then get to decide?

In that case, the establishment candidates shouldn't drop out if they want to win.




Like ball said, there are constraints that the media is deliberately ignoring to further this “this is gonna be a real slog!” narrative, one of them being money. The field will definitely winnow come Super Tuesday. Warren is already almost out of cash, and will probably drop out if she doesn’t get at least 2nd in NV, because she won’t do well in SC and she doesn’t want to get clobbered on Super Tuesday and have a poor showing in her home state (leaving her vulnerable to Senate challengers like Kennedy). Steyer is a vanity campaign I don’t really see him taking off despite his money, and everyone else besides Biden and Bloomberg struggle with minorities. Bernie just needs to run up the numbers out West and minimize damage in the south and he’ll be fine.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic] * 1
    #26486850 - 02/15/20 10:31 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Although I have no trouble understanding it in context, I seldom heard the word winnow before this primary. Now I read it every day.

In the 2016 Republican primary it was always "Is the field going to narrow". Now it's winnow, winnows, winnowing, winnowed.

As I have said, I think it's best for Bernie if the field does not winnow, particularly before Super Tuesday. As far as a brokered convention is concerned, I don't think the issue is how many delegates Bernie has, rather the distance between him and whose in second.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26486866 - 02/15/20 10:49 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

I disagree.  If bernie doesn't have enough delegates and the rest of the field isn't close, it creates a perfect opportunity for a "dark horse" to emerge from a smoke filled room at the convention.
In other words, This is the exact scenario that the Dems have been setting up this whole cycle.  They're gonna pull Hillary out at the convention and bill it as the comeback story of the century


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26486906 - 02/15/20 11:15 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Bloomberg maybe, Hillary not a chance. She is much more disliked now than she was when she lost.

My point is that if the field narrows 2nd place will be close to Bernie, and if it doesn't narrow they wont.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Brian Jones] * 1
    #26486960 - 02/15/20 11:44 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
I'll ask a question that was asked before, that nobody answered:

If Bernie continues to win every state with 35% (or some similar number), he wouldn't get to 50%.  Does that mean there's a brokered convention that the establishment democrats then get to decide?



That's my understanding.



It's  happening.  Five Thirty Eight now predicts no one getting 50% as the most likely scenario.



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26486973 - 02/15/20 11:52 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
Although I have no trouble understanding it in context, I seldom heard the word winnow before this primary. Now I read it every day.

In the 2016 Republican primary it was always "Is the field going to narrow". Now it's winnow, winnows, winnowing, winnowed.

As I have said, I think it's best for Bernie if the field does not winnow, particularly before Super Tuesday. As far as a brokered convention is concerned, I don't think the issue is how many delegates Bernie has, rather the distance between him and whose in second.




Not gonna lie I paused before typing it to make sure it was a real word. It seems nothing windows except fields.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic] * 1
    #26487044 - 02/15/20 12:46 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Winnowing is a farming method developed by ancient people for separating grain from chaff. It is also used to remove weevils or other pests from stored grain. Threshing, which is the loosening of grain or seeds from the husks and straw, comes before winnowing.




related:


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26492993 - 02/19/20 08:08 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Looks like my speculation about the Buddyjudge shares hitting the floor was incorrect....the share is down to .06. Watching the debates and if he does well, gonna sell day after.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26499154 - 02/22/20 09:50 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Speculation on Bootyjudge, gave me a net loss of -7 cents a share.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26499678 - 02/23/20 10:12 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

I sold all my winning Berniebucks last night.  My thinking is that He's gonna take a beating in the media in the run-up to SC and I'll be able to rebuy at a favorable price on tues.  This leaves me holding a bag full of Steyer lottos in SC That I'm getting clobberred on.  I'm down like 9 cents on 1000 shares.  I'll just hold them unless Steyer can get himself a bump in the next couple days and I can sell for 50% loss or better.  Not sure what I'll do if Bernie's price doesn't drop a little.  maybe just bank the cash and play margin of victory markets and such.  Maybe I'll just bet Bloomberg NO in every market.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 2
    #26499700 - 02/23/20 10:22 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Steyer benefitted from flooding the waves with ads in NV and SC before anyone else was really doing so. Now with Bloomberg in the mix and people starting to pay attention in SC, I don’t see his stock improving, even with a relatively nice finish in NV.


I’m eager to see a post NV post debate SC poll this week. A CBS (I think) poll from early last week had Bernie 5 points behind Biden, I’m hoping the big Nevada win propels Bernie to the top.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #26499753 - 02/23/20 10:56 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

As long as Steyer can keep hacking away at Biden's AA support, I think Bernie has SC in the bag.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 3
    #26499850 - 02/23/20 12:04 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

AWWWWWWWW YEEEEEAH!

I just saw an opportunity to pump Steyer up to a break even price in SC 2nd place market.  I took it, someone bit and I've vacated that position at NO LOSS! 

:fuckyeah:


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26500166 - 02/23/20 04:34 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Hey bal, you see the fluctuation during the debates? It was changing with each one liner. When Eliz went after Doomburg and his NDAs, he dropped like 3 cents in a matter of 30secs. Didnt know the site was that locked in.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26500301 - 02/23/20 06:11 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Everything is real time but the servers lag on election/debate nights.  Best to have some percentage of your buy/sell orders locked in in advance.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26502287 - 02/24/20 08:37 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Took Bernie shares to win TX. Hopefully close to the floor.


--------------------
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Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26502380 - 02/24/20 10:06 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

if its current market price, I think it may drop a bit if there is a pile on at the debate but that won't matter if your play is a hold for the full dollar.  Still, be ready to pick up a little more after the debate on a discount.  Same with everywhere.  If Bernie wins SC he's going to 80+ in every market.
there may be value when they first open the SC margin of victory market.  I think its likely to be a squeaker either going bernie or biden's way depending on how well steyer can do.  MOV 4% or less.  Lot of biden holders might bet on a big win making 10%+ NO a strong bet


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26504073 - 02/25/20 09:06 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

btw the first part of my prediction is currently unfolding
bernie prices are likely to continue to drop right up until the results from SC start coming in.  If Biden wins, Bernie prices are likely to go into deep discount in super tuesday states


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Edited by ballsalsa (02/25/20 09:09 PM)

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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26504898 - 02/26/20 01:42 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

I haven't followed predictit enough to grasp the short term swings.

I'm reading that Biden will probably take South Carolina by a narrow margin and Bernie will get nearly as many delegates.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26504995 - 02/26/20 02:39 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

He may.  I'm betting yes on all MOV contracts between 1% and 4%.  Also 8%

PI says 70+% chance for biden to win which might be wrong and 55% chance for MOV 10% or more which is definitely wrong


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Brian Jones]
    #26505109 - 02/26/20 04:11 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

I am learning the ropes. ....I have a net loss of 13%.  I worked in a regulatory capacity at a big bank, so things financial are not to scary - but- daytrading is another beast like bal said in first post.

I deposited a months worth of disposable income.....so there is no real loss to me. Speculation on both sides of the coin is key in all this. You should try it (assuming your not a degenerate gambler) Jones .


--------------------
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Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Edited by SirTripAlot (02/26/20 04:11 PM)

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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26505118 - 02/26/20 04:15 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Your prediction  was correct.  I purchased at 68 cents, and it has fallen lower. Still trying to get a bottom floor correct in a market, my speculation is not that far off, but, implementing  that timeframe with a purchase or sale is another.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26505360 - 02/26/20 06:41 PM (4 years, 1 month ago)

I'm still getting creamed on my SC Steyer play in the winner market.  Seems like no amount of polls or coverage of his support in the state can convince the market that he has even an outside shot.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26507455 - 02/28/20 12:14 AM (4 years, 1 month ago)

Pretty sure the market has bottomed out on bernie for the most part.  should bounce slightly now and stick until sat.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26511824 - 03/01/20 06:34 PM (4 years, 28 days ago)

Big losses for me Sat.  Never did find an opportunity to vacate Tom in the winner market so that was a forgone conclusion but I got extra toasted in MOV market.  A lot of my positions are in the red currently but I fell like they're mostly well positioned to make money tuesday regardless.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26516303 - 03/04/20 11:12 AM (4 years, 25 days ago)

Bernie in TX went up to 72 and in five minutes went down to 30. Didnt pull the trigger quick enough. My biggest loss so far. Gonna remember the dropouts for next election.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26516551 - 03/04/20 01:41 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

I got dominated on Super Tuesday


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26516645 - 03/04/20 02:36 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

The lesson seems to be never underestimate the establishment.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26516696 - 03/04/20 03:17 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

True dat


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26516700 - 03/04/20 03:18 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

Who is the establishment?  I've been hearing a lot about it on this forum lately, but I have no idea who you're talking about.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil] * 1
    #26516711 - 03/04/20 03:24 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

Third way Democrats, their Republican allies and the wealthy few that own them all


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26516874 - 03/04/20 05:04 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

:whathesaid:


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26516887 - 03/04/20 05:10 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

That gives me almost zero information.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil]
    #26517016 - 03/04/20 06:05 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

Maybe this is simpler?

The establishment serves billionaires, not the 99%.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26517153 - 03/04/20 06:58 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

Okay, maybe we're not communicating well.  Can you list some names I might have heard of?  I'm trying to figure out SPECIFICALLY who they are...right now, they sound like a shadowy group, much like the illuminati.


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil]
    #26517188 - 03/04/20 07:14 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

Have you heard of Bloomberg, Biden, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar?


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26517197 - 03/04/20 07:17 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

I've heard of all of them.  They don't have a lot in common.  How do you know they are members of the establishment?


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil] * 1
    #26517233 - 03/04/20 07:30 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

How do I know their policies protect the rich at everyone else's expense?  By looking at their policies.

Are any promoting policies to help the working class like Bernie is and Warren was?


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26517237 - 03/04/20 07:32 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

Yeah, they are.  How does universal health care with a public option help the rich?  How does it not help the working class?


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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil]
    #26517256 - 03/04/20 07:40 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

I think "the establishment" conjures images of smoke filled rooms and various characters shaking hands. The word is morphing as the most
" establishment " presidental canidate was Dwight Eisenhower (over 5 decades ago)

But looking for a proper noun, badge, or insignia will yeild no "establishment".


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil] * 1
    #26517259 - 03/04/20 07:42 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

Medicare for all is paid for by an income based premium, which puts more burden on the rich (though they don't necessarily pay a higher percentage), and is less expensive for at least 95% of the population.

A public option is paid for out of pocket by the working class.

Next question?


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I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26517262 - 03/04/20 07:45 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

Nah, I got my answer:  establishment is whomever you disagree with.

I don't know why I thought you'd have an actual answer.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil]
    #26517272 - 03/04/20 07:49 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

I (and others) explained it to you, you chose to ignore the explanation.

Should I explain it again with the corresponding example, or would you care to explain why you disagree?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26517277 - 03/04/20 07:50 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

I can't agree or disagree.  It's a word.  It has a meaning.  You've told me your meaning which, once tested, breaks down to being anyone you disagree with.  I'm fine knowing that.  It'll help me understand what you're saying when you use the term.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil]
    #26517316 - 03/04/20 08:07 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

:whateveryousayfreak:

Why don't you summarize that test of yours so we understand your logic.  I'm not seeing it.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil] * 1
    #26517474 - 03/04/20 09:25 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

establishment is an umbrella term like progressive or conservative.  It can take many forms but the main thing in common is a desire to maintain the status quo set in the 80's and preserved through today via the illusion of choice between the 2 major political parties in this country.  Establishment is not a secret society with card carrying members.  People working to preserve the establishment or carrying water for it can hold differing opinions on many things.  The establishment can be a campaign volunteer trying to go back in time to the Obama years, not even realizing the going backwards can only bring you to where you are.  That's a fairly innocuous example.  A pawn of the system, if you will.  The establishment can also be personified in the billionaire that attempts to buy the presidency or the ones that buy media outlets with which to influence public opinion or stoke public fears in order to perpetuate a system that has placed them so far above the common man.  Finally, the establishment is the collective group of lobbyists, legislators and other figures of political power that work (not necessarily on concert) to continue the downward spiral.  Motive is not relevant here.  Some might be malicious.  Some might be oblivious.  Some might just be trying to pay their mortgage.  Some might think they are doing the right thing.  The point is that their collective actions come together to stay the course and keep rolling into this neo-liberal/neo-conservative single party nightmare.  The establishment are the folks who think that they can stop the revolution but they're wrong.  The revolution is coming, one way or the other.  The only question now is whether we want a political revolution a la Bernie Sanders or whether we let Trump push humpty-dumpty off the wall and wait for shit to really get weird.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26517557 - 03/04/20 09:55 PM (4 years, 25 days ago)

Quote:

ballsalsa said:
establishment is an umbrella term like progressive or conservative.  It can take many forms but the main thing in common is a desire to maintain the status quo set in the 80's and preserved through today via the illusion of choice between the 2 major political parties in this country.  Establishment is not a secret society with card carrying members.  People working to preserve the establishment or carrying water for it can hold differing opinions on many things.



Well said.  :toast:


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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