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ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



Registered: 03/11/15
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic] 1
#26487044 - 02/15/20 12:46 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Winnowing is a farming method developed by ancient people for separating grain from chaff. It is also used to remove weevils or other pests from stored grain. Threshing, which is the loosening of grain or seeds from the husks and straw, comes before winnowing.
related:
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SirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] 1
#26492993 - 02/19/20 08:08 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Looks like my speculation about the Buddyjudge shares hitting the floor was incorrect....the share is down to .06. Watching the debates and if he does well, gonna sell day after.
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
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SirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
#26499154 - 02/22/20 09:50 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Speculation on Bootyjudge, gave me a net loss of -7 cents a share.
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
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ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
#26499678 - 02/23/20 10:12 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I sold all my winning Berniebucks last night. My thinking is that He's gonna take a beating in the media in the run-up to SC and I'll be able to rebuy at a favorable price on tues. This leaves me holding a bag full of Steyer lottos in SC That I'm getting clobberred on. I'm down like 9 cents on 1000 shares. I'll just hold them unless Steyer can get himself a bump in the next couple days and I can sell for 50% loss or better. Not sure what I'll do if Bernie's price doesn't drop a little. maybe just bank the cash and play margin of victory markets and such. Maybe I'll just bet Bloomberg NO in every market.
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The Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] 2
#26499700 - 02/23/20 10:22 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Steyer benefitted from flooding the waves with ads in NV and SC before anyone else was really doing so. Now with Bloomberg in the mix and people starting to pay attention in SC, I don’t see his stock improving, even with a relatively nice finish in NV.
I’m eager to see a post NV post debate SC poll this week. A CBS (I think) poll from early last week had Bernie 5 points behind Biden, I’m hoping the big Nevada win propels Bernie to the top.
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ballsalsa
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As long as Steyer can keep hacking away at Biden's AA support, I think Bernie has SC in the bag.
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ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] 3
#26499850 - 02/23/20 12:04 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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AWWWWWWWW YEEEEEAH!
I just saw an opportunity to pump Steyer up to a break even price in SC 2nd place market. I took it, someone bit and I've vacated that position at NO LOSS!
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SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26500166 - 02/23/20 04:34 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Hey bal, you see the fluctuation during the debates? It was changing with each one liner. When Eliz went after Doomburg and his NDAs, he dropped like 3 cents in a matter of 30secs. Didnt know the site was that locked in.
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
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ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
#26500301 - 02/23/20 06:11 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Everything is real time but the servers lag on election/debate nights. Best to have some percentage of your buy/sell orders locked in in advance.
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SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] 1
#26502287 - 02/24/20 08:37 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Took Bernie shares to win TX. Hopefully close to the floor.
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
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ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



Registered: 03/11/15
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
#26502380 - 02/24/20 10:06 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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if its current market price, I think it may drop a bit if there is a pile on at the debate but that won't matter if your play is a hold for the full dollar. Still, be ready to pick up a little more after the debate on a discount. Same with everywhere. If Bernie wins SC he's going to 80+ in every market. there may be value when they first open the SC margin of victory market. I think its likely to be a squeaker either going bernie or biden's way depending on how well steyer can do. MOV 4% or less. Lot of biden holders might bet on a big win making 10%+ NO a strong bet
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ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26504073 - 02/25/20 09:06 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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btw the first part of my prediction is currently unfolding bernie prices are likely to continue to drop right up until the results from SC start coming in. If Biden wins, Bernie prices are likely to go into deep discount in super tuesday states
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Edited by ballsalsa (02/25/20 09:09 PM)
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Brian Jones
Club 27



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26504898 - 02/26/20 01:42 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I haven't followed predictit enough to grasp the short term swings.
I'm reading that Biden will probably take South Carolina by a narrow margin and Bernie will get nearly as many delegates.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Brian Jones]
#26504995 - 02/26/20 02:39 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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He may. I'm betting yes on all MOV contracts between 1% and 4%. Also 8%
PI says 70+% chance for biden to win which might be wrong and 55% chance for MOV 10% or more which is definitely wrong
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SirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Brian Jones]
#26505109 - 02/26/20 04:11 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I am learning the ropes. ....I have a net loss of 13%. I worked in a regulatory capacity at a big bank, so things financial are not to scary - but- daytrading is another beast like bal said in first post.
I deposited a months worth of disposable income.....so there is no real loss to me. Speculation on both sides of the coin is key in all this. You should try it (assuming your not a degenerate gambler) Jones .
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
Edited by SirTripAlot (02/26/20 04:11 PM)
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SirTripAlot
Semper Fidelis



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26505118 - 02/26/20 04:15 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Your prediction was correct. I purchased at 68 cents, and it has fallen lower. Still trying to get a bottom floor correct in a market, my speculation is not that far off, but, implementing that timeframe with a purchase or sale is another.
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
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ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



Registered: 03/11/15
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
#26505360 - 02/26/20 06:41 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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I'm still getting creamed on my SC Steyer play in the winner market. Seems like no amount of polls or coverage of his support in the state can convince the market that he has even an outside shot.
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ballsalsa
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26507455 - 02/28/20 12:14 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Pretty sure the market has bottomed out on bernie for the most part. should bounce slightly now and stick until sat.
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ballsalsa
Universally Loathed and Reviled



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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26511824 - 03/01/20 06:34 PM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Big losses for me Sat. Never did find an opportunity to vacate Tom in the winner market so that was a forgone conclusion but I got extra toasted in MOV market. A lot of my positions are in the red currently but I fell like they're mostly well positioned to make money tuesday regardless.
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SirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26516303 - 03/04/20 11:12 AM (3 years, 10 months ago) |
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Bernie in TX went up to 72 and in five minutes went down to 30. Didnt pull the trigger quick enough. My biggest loss so far. Gonna remember the dropouts for next election.
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
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