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ballsalsa
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I don't know how well he's polling but the markets seem to have him way overinflated in value across the board, especially in the south. I think he's well over 20 cents in TN rn. Might just be because Biden bettors don't know where to flee yet.
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The Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26478210 - 02/10/20 09:33 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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That’s probably the case
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ballsalsa
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26479333 - 02/10/20 09:48 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Where's Enlil? He likes gambling
Edited by ballsalsa (02/10/20 09:49 PM)
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Enlil
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26479639 - 02/11/20 06:51 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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I don't gamble, bro
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The Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Enlil]
#26479930 - 02/11/20 10:34 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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But you like it
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ballsalsa
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The last couple days have been interesting. Someone has spent a ton of money pumping Bloomberg in every place that Biden has been slipping. It seemed like an obvious effort to boost bloomberg in the markets that had the smallest pools but still, it must have cost a fortune. I saw it starting, sold 2/3 of my berniebucks and bought back in when the bloomberg wave started to recede, so I did alright so far. Seems like the market is gradually correcting on bloomberg across the board but its gonna take some polling to move much quicker.
Regarding SC. I made a "big" play on Steyer here, not because I think he'll win but because I think the market will value him at 25 cents by the time voting starts and I plan to sell him off by then
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SirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26484920 - 02/14/20 08:04 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Thats decent speculation about Styer. I just grabbed 14cents on Bootyjud to win NV. Pretty sure he will have a much stronger showing and plan to dump it before voting starts. I would think the share should hit around the 30s.
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
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The Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot] 1
#26485344 - 02/14/20 12:07 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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I don’t see Pete winning another state, NV probably your last opportunity to cash out on his stock.
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SirTripAlot
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Market dropped by -4 since we talked. (I if I am right) that hopefully will be the bottom floor. I really think.....all of the (fake) Bottyjudge Iowa/NH momentum will show up soon.
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
Edited by SirTripAlot (02/14/20 06:21 PM)
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ballsalsa
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
#26486001 - 02/14/20 07:21 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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I'm pretty sure he spent the fake momentum he had. Unless something dramatic happens in the next week or so, he's likely to continue his decline. Both he and kloby have narrow to nonexistent paths forward. My prediction for Nevada is that we will see similar results to the last 2 contests except with Bernie pulling a little further away due to his appealing to a broader base while pete, kloby, biden, and warren continue to compete for the same space. Steyer is actually somewhat likely to do better than most people expect which will help his narrative going into SC and thereby strengthen bernie by splitting biden's last remaining base of support
Bernie: 35% +/-5 Steyer: 15% +/-5 Warren: 12% +/-3 Biden: 12% +/-5 Pete: 12% +/-5 Kloby: 12% +/-5 Other: 2% +/- 4
full disclosure: I'm getting creamed on my SC Steyer play right now, so take my predictions with a grain of salt, lol.
Edited by ballsalsa (02/14/20 07:23 PM)
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Falcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26486009 - 02/14/20 07:26 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
ballsalsa said: Bernie: 35% +/-5 Steyer: 15% +/-5 Warren: 12% +/-3 Biden: 12% +/-5 Pete: 12% +/-5 Kloby: 12% +/-5 Other: 2% +/- 4
I'll ask a question that was asked before, that nobody answered:
If Bernie continues to win every state with 35% (or some similar number), he wouldn't get to 50%. Does that mean there's a brokered convention that the establishment democrats then get to decide?
In that case, the establishment candidates shouldn't drop out if they want to win.
-------------------- I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them. I also attack my side if I think they're wrong. People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.
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ballsalsa
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there are money constraints. More importantly, people like to vote for the winner. The more Bernie can appear to be the consistent winner, the more bandwagon voters will flock to him. Keep in mind that most people don't pay attention to this stuff the way we do around here. They're just starting to pay attention now that votes are being cast
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SirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26486101 - 02/14/20 08:30 PM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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We will see what the market tells us. I think Bootyjudge is a commanding public speaker/charisma compared to the rest, in short he is a skillful politician that wont go away easy. The momentum just helped.I will eat crow if I have too. (Def not voting for him)
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
Edited by SirTripAlot (02/14/20 09:09 PM)
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Brian Jones
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That's my understanding. That's why I think its important for the rest of these Bozos to stay in and dilute each other's delegate counts. Even if Bernie doesn't have enough to guarantee the nomination it will be much harder to screw him if nobody is close.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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The Ecstatic
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Quote:
Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:
ballsalsa said: Bernie: 35% +/-5 Steyer: 15% +/-5 Warren: 12% +/-3 Biden: 12% +/-5 Pete: 12% +/-5 Kloby: 12% +/-5 Other: 2% +/- 4
I'll ask a question that was asked before, that nobody answered:
If Bernie continues to win every state with 35% (or some similar number), he wouldn't get to 50%. Does that mean there's a brokered convention that the establishment democrats then get to decide?
In that case, the establishment candidates shouldn't drop out if they want to win.
Like ball said, there are constraints that the media is deliberately ignoring to further this “this is gonna be a real slog!” narrative, one of them being money. The field will definitely winnow come Super Tuesday. Warren is already almost out of cash, and will probably drop out if she doesn’t get at least 2nd in NV, because she won’t do well in SC and she doesn’t want to get clobbered on Super Tuesday and have a poor showing in her home state (leaving her vulnerable to Senate challengers like Kennedy). Steyer is a vanity campaign I don’t really see him taking off despite his money, and everyone else besides Biden and Bloomberg struggle with minorities. Bernie just needs to run up the numbers out West and minimize damage in the south and he’ll be fine.
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Brian Jones
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic] 1
#26486850 - 02/15/20 10:31 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Although I have no trouble understanding it in context, I seldom heard the word winnow before this primary. Now I read it every day.
In the 2016 Republican primary it was always "Is the field going to narrow". Now it's winnow, winnows, winnowing, winnowed.
As I have said, I think it's best for Bernie if the field does not winnow, particularly before Super Tuesday. As far as a brokered convention is concerned, I don't think the issue is how many delegates Bernie has, rather the distance between him and whose in second.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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ballsalsa
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Brian Jones]
#26486866 - 02/15/20 10:49 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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I disagree. If bernie doesn't have enough delegates and the rest of the field isn't close, it creates a perfect opportunity for a "dark horse" to emerge from a smoke filled room at the convention. In other words, This is the exact scenario that the Dems have been setting up this whole cycle. They're gonna pull Hillary out at the convention and bill it as the comeback story of the century
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Brian Jones
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
#26486906 - 02/15/20 11:15 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Bloomberg maybe, Hillary not a chance. She is much more disliked now than she was when she lost.
My point is that if the field narrows 2nd place will be close to Bernie, and if it doesn't narrow they wont.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Falcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Brian Jones] 1
#26486960 - 02/15/20 11:44 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Brian Jones said:
Quote:
Falcon91Wolvrn03 said: I'll ask a question that was asked before, that nobody answered:
If Bernie continues to win every state with 35% (or some similar number), he wouldn't get to 50%. Does that mean there's a brokered convention that the establishment democrats then get to decide?
That's my understanding.
It's happening. Five Thirty Eight now predicts no one getting 50% as the most likely scenario.
-------------------- I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them. I also attack my side if I think they're wrong. People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.
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The Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Brian Jones]
#26486973 - 02/15/20 11:52 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Brian Jones said: Although I have no trouble understanding it in context, I seldom heard the word winnow before this primary. Now I read it every day.
In the 2016 Republican primary it was always "Is the field going to narrow". Now it's winnow, winnows, winnowing, winnowed.
As I have said, I think it's best for Bernie if the field does not winnow, particularly before Super Tuesday. As far as a brokered convention is concerned, I don't think the issue is how many delegates Bernie has, rather the distance between him and whose in second.
Not gonna lie I paused before typing it to make sure it was a real word. It seems nothing windows except fields.
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