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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Political Market Wagering * 3
    #26472731 - 02/06/20 08:14 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Let me preface this by saying that I am, at best, a novice at this.
That being said, I figured it might be fun to explain how and why I make wagers in PredictIt's political markets.

The following is a brief summary of how this market works per their website:
Quote:

You make predictions by buying shares. The price of a share, between 1 and 99 cents, corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of an event taking place. Buy ‘Yes’ shares when the price is too low, when you think your fellow traders are underestimating this likelihood. Buy ‘No’ shares when you think they are too optimistic.

The value of your shares will change over time. You may decide to sell your shares later on, either to take some profit or stop a loss. Or, you can hold onto your shares until the market closes. At that point, if the event in the market has taken place, we’ll redeem ‘Yes’ shares at $1. If it has not, ‘No’ shares will have that $1 value instead.

Notice that some markets feature questions that have simple yes or no answers, while others have several possible outcomes. Each of these outcomes is known as a ‘contract.’




There are people who can make money year round in any market.  I'm not one of those.  What I do is look for markets where I think that I know something that puts me ahead of the general public.  The first thing to understand is that you aren't really betting on the outcome.  You are betting on the points at which the market swings away from the realistic outcome.  So if, for example, you think that Bernie is going to win Iowa 1 year before the election and you see that Bernie YES in Iowa are going for 20 cents per, you buy them because you know that the day before the election those will be selling for 70 cents. 

ALWAYS CAREFULLY READ THE RULES OF A MARKET
seriously though, people have fucked themselves many times by not knowing in advance how ties are settled or by what metric the winner would be selected by for the purposes of settling a market.

Don't bet on degenerate markets like "how many times will trump tweet between 2/4/2020 and 2/9/2020"
There are a lot of these BS markets and I really don't know how to gain an edge over the public in them.

Do not hold your winning shares until the market closes.  Sell them at a profit as election night gets underway and then bet the swings as election night results trickle out.  Check twitter as well as MSM outlets for rumors that will influence the market.  Check the buy and sell prices to see how much resistance there is to a big swing before you pull the trigger on a rumor.  Watch the comments in a given market and know the highest rated bettors on PredictIt.  When they show up in chat and pump a contract it can rapidly influence the market.  Never, ever, ever hold past 90 cents.  It just isn't worth it IMO.  Take your profit at 90 cents because the extra dime isn't worth the loss of liquidity.  Some markets don't resolve for weeks and you can make up the dime on another contract somewhere else.

Don't get carried away with long shots.  If a contract is at 3 cents, its almost always for a reason.  The market isn't generally that dumb.

Resist the urge to day trade small fractions.  It isn't worth it in my opinion.  You can spend all week gaining 5 cent here and there just to have it wiped out by one bad swing and now you're stuck with shares of some shit you didn't maybe even want until the market resolves or you take your loss.

I find the best value in bets that depend on the outcome of another event.  As an example, I think that Bernie is going to crush NH but even if he doesn't, I know that Biden is gonna crater.  Given that, I felt it was a good bet to pick up shares of Bernie and steyer throughout Biden's "southern firewall" states because I know that everyone loves a frontrunner and Biden isn't going to be that after NH.  Bernie because I think he will be the frontrunner and steyer because he's spent a lot of money in SC and NV and is polling well in SC right now but is only valued in single digits. (yes, I know i just said not to bet on single digit contracts)

That's all for now, I'll probably update this post as I think of more stuff.

Someone who makes money investing in other types of market could probably give bettor advice than I can about this.
I feel like maybe qman might have a gem or 2 in his back pocket.

Update: Pay attention to your buy and sell orders.  I just sold 100 shares for triple what I paid but I had decided to hold them until they hit 5x and forgot to cancel the sell order


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Edited by ballsalsa (02/06/20 08:35 PM)


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26473266 - 02/07/20 04:13 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Thanks bal!
I am going in hot, will post loses/gains/ wagers soon.

I would just add, just like the stock market, it takes money to make money.


Edited by SirTripAlot (02/07/20 05:36 AM)


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #26473467 - 02/07/20 08:44 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

be careful.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26473726 - 02/07/20 10:54 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Remember guys: if you lose, that means you’re due for a win so keep betting!


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #26473741 - 02/07/20 11:14 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

:no:
But when you win, make sure to remember to hit up your boy, Bernie


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26473816 - 02/07/20 11:52 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Just 50 shares of :

What will be the US advance GDP estimate for the first quarter?

1.8% to 2.2%

Bought them in part due to the Average hourly earnings rise of 0.2%.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


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Invisiblenooneman
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26473836 - 02/07/20 12:00 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

It's the same as any kind of gambling. I've never liked gambling personally.


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: nooneman]
    #26473851 - 02/07/20 12:10 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Your right, I did options before. I bought a put that turned out to be a net loss of around $4,000. Thats alot of cash for me and it completely killed my slush fund for a year. In alot of instances Blackjack has better odds. I do understand why coke is synonymous with Wall Street.

The share price of the above was .47 cents., so no where close.



--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


Edited by SirTripAlot (02/07/20 12:12 PM)


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: nooneman]
    #26473929 - 02/07/20 01:06 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Everything is gambling.  Sometimes you wager money and other times you wager time/effort


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26473967 - 02/07/20 01:40 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Bloomberg and pete overvalued in most markets currently IMO.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26474006 - 02/07/20 02:06 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Have you factored in the shenanigans that are yet to come against Bernie?  :smirk:


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I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #26474105 - 02/07/20 03:04 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Absolutely.


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26476715 - 02/09/20 10:10 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

This is the exact scenario I based my current political wagers on.  Spot on analysis IMO:
Quote:

The Ecstatic said:

538 projected Bernie to win all 50 states, he has the easiest shot. And the centrist candidates don’t get to pool their delegates unless it goes to a contest convention, which won’t happen as long as they’re diluting the centrist vote. All Bernie has to do is win NH, NV, and MAYBE SC, and he’ll steamroll Biden in Super Tuesday, win big in California and Texas and it’s over by April. Pete’s base is too monochromatic to be a challenge, so he’s done, Klobuchar has the personality of a dead raccoon she’ll be lucky to place 3rd anywhere so she can’t keep going, and Biden is growing more senile by the day. Honestly the establishment’s best chance is to coalesce around Warren, but she’s already promised too much progressive shit (and swore off PAC money) that if she backtracks anymore she just comes off like a lying Bernie spoiler (more than she already has). That’s why they’re trying to hype Bloomberg now, they see the writing on the wall and their last card is to just let the billionaire take the wheel and try to bribe enough people to keep Bernie from winning the nomination on the first ballot.




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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26476742 - 02/09/20 10:25 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Hey thanks buddy :love:


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic] * 1
    #26476750 - 02/09/20 10:30 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Great minds think alike.


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InvisibleTexas Honey BadgerM
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26477255 - 02/09/20 04:55 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Good thread:highfive:


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InvisibleballsalsaMDiscord
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #26477733 - 02/09/20 10:42 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Thoughts on Bloomberg's chances in TN?


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OfflineBigbadwooof
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26477755 - 02/09/20 10:57 PM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Thanks for the pro tips, Ballz. You definitely covered a few things that wouldn't have occurred to me right off the bat.


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa] * 1
    #26477850 - 02/10/20 12:41 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Looks like his whole strategy is going  after Super Tuesday states. His ensamble consists of security and videographers...this type of strategy will fail. Now throw in his stance on guns, and there is no chance he gets any meaningful support in TN.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


Extras: Filter Print Post Top
OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Political Market Wagering [Re: ballsalsa]
    #26478176 - 02/10/20 09:20 AM (3 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

ballsalsa said:
Thoughts on Bloomberg's chances in TN?




I’m not sure if you’re being serious or not :lol:


I’m assuming this means there’s been recent polling in TN that shows Bloomberg doing well? In that case, it’s not much different than Steyer polling third in SC. These billionaires are dumping millions of dollars of ads in states where no other campaign is really spending much just yet. As the primary gets closer, these voters will coalesce around the frontrunners. I don’t see Bloomberg winning a single state, he has no constituency.


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