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feevers


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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: Amanita86] 5
#26707107 - 05/30/20 01:04 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/who-cited-human-transmission-risk-in-january-despite-trump-claims
I really haven't followed any of the WHO stuff, but Trump's only goal throughout the entire pandemic has been to shift the blame to absolutely anyone but himself, after he literally took the entire month of February off from dealing with the virus. That inaction directly lead to us having 100k+ deaths, more than the total deaths in the top 3 other countries combined (all who had far, far less time and resources to prepare than we did).
We needed a leader, but we had a con-man and a clown. Things went as you'd expect given that fact.
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RebeccaBlack
Screw you guys, I'm going home



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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26707136 - 05/30/20 01:18 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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How many deaths were they projecting a month or two ago and how many now? In the USA I mean.
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PumpJackTeX
livin life



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A year ago 0.
It was possible to have 0 deaths.
-------------------- Life. 2008 Ascension Energy | UFOs | 2021
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RebeccaBlack
Screw you guys, I'm going home



Registered: 07/15/11
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But I remember Trump saying it could have been 500k but now looking to 50k-80k
I wonder what's the proportion of recovered people that are having serious after-effects.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
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Quote:
Daijo said: How many deaths were they projecting a month or two ago and how many now? In the USA I mean.
Worst-case projections based on incomplete data don't mean much compared to the current statistics worldwide.
We have 100k+ dead and even in two of the cities hit the hardest the (flawed) antibody tests are only estimating a 10-20% total population infection rate.
Bro science would say that means by the time this is through the death count will easily surpass a million. For the facts we'll just have to wait for more data and better testing, neither of which our federal government is prioritizing.
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Amanita86
OTD Keymaster


Registered: 09/26/12
Posts: 89,464
Loc: hades
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Quote:
PumpJackTeX said: A year ago 0.
It was possible to have 0 deaths.
...
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Orange clock, pencil "They threw me off the hay truck about noon..."
*Mark 15:34  Gam zeh ya’avor...
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RebeccaBlack
Screw you guys, I'm going home



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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26707205 - 05/30/20 01:55 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said:
Quote:
Daijo said: How many deaths were they projecting a month or two ago and how many now? In the USA I mean.
Worst-case projections based on incomplete data don't mean much compared to the current statistics worldwide.
That's why I'm interested in knowing how close or far away from actual statistics compared to the projections done a month or two ago.
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BANANA.MAN
Turd Ferguson

Registered: 01/11/15
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26707214 - 05/30/20 02:01 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/who-cited-human-transmission-risk-in-january-despite-trump-claims
I really haven't followed any of the WHO stuff, but Trump's only goal throughout the entire pandemic has been to shift the blame to absolutely anyone but himself, after he literally took the entire month of February off from dealing with the virus. That inaction directly lead to us having 100k+ deaths, more than the total deaths in the top 3 other countries combined (all who had far, far less time and resources to prepare than we did).
We needed a leader, but we had a con-man and a clown. Things went as you'd expect given that fact.
last I checked like a quarter of the deaths have been in New York state. the rest of the US seems to not be doing so bad.
I think Cuomo forcing nursing homes to take back covid positive patients and hiding the nursing home deaths by not counting nursing hom patients who died in hospitals as nursing home deaths(then blaming nursing homes for following his law when people started to realize how stupid it was that so many nursing home patients were needlessly dying) and leaving the subways open but blaming the governor of Florida (who didn't allow infected patients to go back to nursing homes) for opening beaches.
Thats where a very disproportionate amount of deaths are coming from.
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pirate-blues


Registered: 10/15/12
Posts: 13,655
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: BANANA.MAN] 2
#26707219 - 05/30/20 02:05 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Pretty much every state in the Northeast did this because it's what the CDC initially recommended.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: BANANA.MAN] 1
#26707230 - 05/30/20 02:09 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
BANANA.MAN said:
Quote:
feevers said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/who-cited-human-transmission-risk-in-january-despite-trump-claims
I really haven't followed any of the WHO stuff, but Trump's only goal throughout the entire pandemic has been to shift the blame to absolutely anyone but himself, after he literally took the entire month of February off from dealing with the virus. That inaction directly lead to us having 100k+ deaths, more than the total deaths in the top 3 other countries combined (all who had far, far less time and resources to prepare than we did).
We needed a leader, but we had a con-man and a clown. Things went as you'd expect given that fact.
last I checked like a quarter of the deaths have been in New York state. the rest of the US seems to not be doing so bad.
I think Cuomo forcing nursing homes to take back covid positive patients and hiding the nursing home deaths by not counting nursing hom patients who died in hospitals as nursing home deaths(then blaming nursing homes for following his law when people started to realize how stupid it was that so many nursing home patients were needlessly dying) and leaving the subways open but blaming the governor of Florida (who didn't allow infected patients to go back to nursing homes) for opening beaches.
Thats where a very disproportionate amount of deaths are coming from.
NYC got hit early and is super densely populated. Boston got hit early too and MA has over 6k deaths. Many states dropped the ball early on by awaiting federal guidance and funding (which was terrible to non-existant) for how to properly quarantine nursing homes and long term care. I believe it's Connecticut where 1 out of every 13 people currently in long term care facilities has died of COVID so far.
The numbers from these states that saw it earlier will more than likely play out nationwide, how quickly or slowly just has to do with population density and people taking precautions.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Quote:
Daijo said:
Quote:
feevers said:
Quote:
Daijo said: How many deaths were they projecting a month or two ago and how many now? In the USA I mean.
Worst-case projections based on incomplete data don't mean much compared to the current statistics worldwide.
That's why I'm interested in knowing how close or far away from actual statistics compared to the projections done a month or two ago.
Very far, almost certainly thanks to the shutdown. If you search 'shutdown week earlier deaths' there are lots of different statistical data, most predicting we'd be at 30k+ fewer deaths right now if we had shut down only one week earlier. We'll see how it works in reverse now as some places are simply opening the floodgates at all once with reopening, and others are being far more gradual.
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BANANA.MAN
Turd Ferguson

Registered: 01/11/15
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Last seen: 6 months, 1 day
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26707404 - 05/30/20 04:07 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said:
Quote:
BANANA.MAN said:
Quote:
feevers said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/who-cited-human-transmission-risk-in-january-despite-trump-claims
I really haven't followed any of the WHO stuff, but Trump's only goal throughout the entire pandemic has been to shift the blame to absolutely anyone but himself, after he literally took the entire month of February off from dealing with the virus. That inaction directly lead to us having 100k+ deaths, more than the total deaths in the top 3 other countries combined (all who had far, far less time and resources to prepare than we did).
We needed a leader, but we had a con-man and a clown. Things went as you'd expect given that fact.
last I checked like a quarter of the deaths have been in New York state. the rest of the US seems to not be doing so bad.
I think Cuomo forcing nursing homes to take back covid positive patients and hiding the nursing home deaths by not counting nursing hom patients who died in hospitals as nursing home deaths(then blaming nursing homes for following his law when people started to realize how stupid it was that so many nursing home patients were needlessly dying) and leaving the subways open but blaming the governor of Florida (who didn't allow infected patients to go back to nursing homes) for opening beaches.
Thats where a very disproportionate amount of deaths are coming from.
NYC got hit early and is super densely populated. Boston got hit early too and MA has over 6k deaths. Many states dropped the ball early on by awaiting federal guidance and funding (which was terrible to non-existant) for how to properly quarantine nursing homes and long term care. I believe it's Connecticut where 1 out of every 13 people currently in long term care facilities has died of COVID so far.
The numbers from these states that saw it earlier will more than likely play out nationwide, how quickly or slowly just has to do with population density and people taking precautions.
yeah. I agree the deaths will likely end up similar all over (slightly worse in places that don't protect nursing homes like new york) so I don't really see what you mean when you say trump is responsible for our 100k deaths if you think the deaths will end up the same regardless of what action is taken.
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feevers


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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: BANANA.MAN] 2
#26707570 - 05/30/20 05:35 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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I wouldn't say he's responsible for 100k, but I'd definitely say his leadership is why, at this moment, we're triple the death count of the next highest country. With the inaction at the beginning, pathetic amount of testing and treatment/vaccine research dollars throughout, PPE mismanagement, and no unified phased reopening plan based upon data in specific areas (the largest blunder)... along with him openly encouraging people to not take precautions... all we really did here was tank our economy, divide people further in the stupid political game, and print money for corporations.
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26707645 - 05/30/20 06:03 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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deaths will absolutely not end up being the same no matter what. rate of resource consumption in hospital absolutely plays a role in outcomes. when you have too many patients at once you a) end up with absurd staffing ratios like 10 patients to one nurse which is a major predictor of poor outcomes and b) start run out of simple things like oxygen and common meds you typically take for granted. the mortality rate isn't an inherent property of the virus, at least not in the modern context, it depends on medical care, and that medical care has logistical limitations.
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BANANA.MAN
Turd Ferguson

Registered: 01/11/15
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Quote:
morrowasted said: deaths will absolutely not end up being the same no matter what. rate of resource consumption in hospital absolutely plays a role in outcomes. when you have too many patients at once you a) end up with absurd staffing ratios like 10 patients to one nurse which is a major predictor of poor outcomes and b) start run out of simple things like oxygen and common meds you typically take for granted. the mortality rate isn't an inherent property of the virus, at least not in the modern context, it depends on medical care, and that medical care has logistical limitations.
obviously so long as we dont exceed our medical capacity.
you misunderstood my post. if we ave a faayee sprea than do now it wont be the same. but slowing the spread beyond this point isnt doing to change the end result. fevers was saying states with a slower spread are delaying deaths not preventing them which is true so long as we remain within medical capacity.
if we had done less and not done any social distancing or mask wearing or anything and exceeded medical capacity then obviously that opens us up to preventable deaths. that wasnt what we were talking about.
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BANANA.MAN
Turd Ferguson

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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26707701 - 05/30/20 06:27 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said: I wouldn't say he's responsible for 100k, but I'd definitely say his leadership is why, at this moment, we're triple the death count of the next highest country. With the inaction at the beginning, pathetic amount of testing and treatment/vaccine research dollars throughout, PPE mismanagement, and no unified phased reopening plan based upon data in specific areas (the largest blunder)... along with him openly encouraging people to not take precautions... all we really did here was tank our economy, divide people further in the stupid political game, and print money for corporations.
you said it yourself thats not preventing deaths only delaying them. the next highest country will likely end up with a similar death rate (which by the way is important not deatg count as countries have different populations) just like you said with states.
new york has a not only high but disproportionately high death count and you are defending them saying it wont matter in the end but the country as a whole you are saying it does matter. its just inconsistent.
every govorner has said they got what they asked for from the feds. so i dont see how trumo is to blame for any shortages.
we domt meed a unified reopening plan all states are different and will likely need to respond differemtly and besides thats the point of having states. they make their own choices.
i think him refusing to wear a mask os absolutely stupid but that has nothing to do with his policy.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: BANANA.MAN]
#26707785 - 05/30/20 07:16 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
BANANA.MAN said:
Quote:
feevers said: I wouldn't say he's responsible for 100k, but I'd definitely say his leadership is why, at this moment, we're triple the death count of the next highest country. With the inaction at the beginning, pathetic amount of testing and treatment/vaccine research dollars throughout, PPE mismanagement, and no unified phased reopening plan based upon data in specific areas (the largest blunder)... along with him openly encouraging people to not take precautions... all we really did here was tank our economy, divide people further in the stupid political game, and print money for corporations.
you said it yourself thats not preventing deaths only delaying them. the next highest country will likely end up with a similar death rate (which by the way is important not deatg count as countries have different populations) just like you said with states.
new york has a not only high but disproportionately high death count and you are defending them saying it wont matter in the end but the country as a whole you are saying it does matter. its just inconsistent.
every govorner has said they got what they asked for from the feds. so i dont see how trumo is to blame for any shortages.
we domt meed a unified reopening plan all states are different and will likely need to respond differemtly and besides thats the point of having states. they make their own choices.
i think him refusing to wear a mask os absolutely stupid but that has nothing to do with his policy.
I never said there's no preventing deaths, I said I'd guess the future will likely play out the same as the past. That's based upon our current situation of people thinking the pandemic is somehow over, when it's likely barely started. I personally think using the defense production act and just general leadership to ramp up vaccine and treatment research, along with designing and producing more accurate tests could've done wonders here. We're getting clobbered by a viral pandemic and have some of the world's greatest medical researchers and scientists from the top universities and research labs that have just been sitting home watching netflix and running Zoom lectures, because they have been given no guidance or opportunity to do much else.
I'm not defending new york at all. Im stating the facts that they are incredibly population dense and the federal guidance they sought for nursing homes was a disgrace. The nursing homes in MA, CT, NJ etc got slammed too.
My state had our supplies that were destined for hospitals seized by feds numerous times, states all around the country literally had to form their own coalitions to out muscle the feds and actually get things done and procure supplies. Saying that all governors got what they needed from the feds is just delusional. We had nurses on COVID floors running around with dusk masks and ski goggles on
I literally said the reopening plan should be based upon data in specific areas. NYC does not need the same reopening timeline that Wyoming does, but the milestones and goals should be consistent so that a few rogue states don't flare up and spread their surges and defeat the whole purpose of what we've already spent trillions trying to prevent.
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BANANA.MAN
Turd Ferguson

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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26707807 - 05/30/20 07:25 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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I just found it odd that you thought other states will probably catch up to new york in the end but you dont apply the same logic when comparing the country as a whole to other countries.
I agree with you that so long as we dont exceed medical capcity, any further (bolded and italicized for you morro) lockdown is mostly delaying, not preventing deaths. the only exception being if more vulnerable people are exposed than otherwise would have been.
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specialpeopleclub


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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: BANANA.MAN]
#26707832 - 05/30/20 07:38 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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This thing has showed me that most people cant tell the differance betwen intuitive ans scientific.
I was prepsired to defend mt case for freedom with millions of deaths. That isnt happening and people still talk like the momentum is going to reverse. Its an unreasonable assertion
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Quote:
you misunderstood my post. if we ave a faayee sprea than do now it wont be the same.
Shocking.
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