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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
Posts: 31,377
Loc: House of Mirrors
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I dont mean to agree with bodhi but i wont be shocked if final cfr is 0.5%. When all is said and done. That doesnt matter though when medical resources are overwhelmed people are dying of all sorts of stuff. Surgeries to diagnose and treat cancer and all sort of shit has to be delayed for very complicated reason. The real death toll is higher than what you see from covid19 and would be much much much higher had we not intervened at all
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Ima Trooper
Chilldog Extraordinaire



Registered: 02/21/08
Posts: 13,533
Loc: United States
Last seen: 2 days, 13 hours
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: Asante]
#26611051 - 04/18/20 05:10 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Asante said: VERY interesting new from the Netherlands. The blood of 10,000 blood donors was screened for COVID antibodies. 3% had the antibodies. If you extrapolate that to the national population that would mean that about half a million out of 17.3 million had the disease. If thats true, than the case fatality rate may be around 0.6%. That would be EXTREMELY GOOD NEWS because that could mean that the global death rate from this might be as low as 30-40 million when all is said and done. Still a death rate comparable to a world war and on par with the Spanish flu, but not as extreme as its tenfold.
Maybe a dumb question, but why is this good? I mean, I get that there being a lower fatality rate is a good thing, but the AMOUNT of deaths will still be the same, regardless of what the rate is. What this tells me is: holy shit, with so many people being asymptomatic, this is suuuuper easy to spread, because if you feel fine you're not going to quarantine yourself from family and people you live with. You may also not take as many preventative measures.
To me, so many people being asymptomatic would be anecdotally awesome, but in a practical sense, terrifying.
-------------------- "Its moving of its own accord...and I like that in a shirt!" - Me, tripping. deCypher said: Schizophrenia beats dining alone, you know.
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psi
TOAST N' JAM


Registered: 09/05/99
Posts: 31,456
Loc: 613
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: Ima Trooper] 1
#26611087 - 04/18/20 05:26 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Ima Trooper said: Maybe a dumb question, but why is this good? I mean, I get that there being a lower fatality rate is a good thing, but the AMOUNT of deaths will still be the same, regardless of what the rate is.
The amount of deaths that have already happened is not changed by a lower death rate. But assuming most people eventually get it, a high death rate implies higher numbers of future deaths.
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The Blind Ass
Bodhi



Registered: 08/16/16
Posts: 26,657
Loc: The Primordial Mind
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Quote:
morrowasted said: I dont mean to agree with bodhi but i wont be shocked if final cfr is 0.5%. When all is said and done. That doesnt matter though when medical resources are overwhelmed people are dying of all sorts of stuff. Surgeries to diagnose and treat cancer and all sort of shit has to be delayed for very complicated reason. The real death toll is higher than what you see from covid19 and would be much much much higher had we not intervened at all
It’s potential to disrupt the delicate systems that allow our globalized modern world to function the way it has been is one of the main reasons for such a large response to the virus. It doesn’t need to be deadly to everyone to disrupt the way of the world. Only needs to kill some, and or incapacitate other certIn individuals who act as essential cogs for the vast machine to stop functioning smoothly...and that would lead to even bigger problems. Good thing for the response and measures we had or have now.
-------------------- Give me Liberty caps -or- give me Death caps
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mushboy
modboy



Registered: 04/24/05
Posts: 32,273
Loc: where?
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods] 2
#26611140 - 04/18/20 05:47 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said:

People who work in grocery stores should also be first in line for testing
i work at a beer distributor
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TheStallionMang
Do U know who yur fuckin with?


Registered: 10/18/17
Posts: 4,528
Loc:
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Quote:
pirate-blues said: Ugh Kale is the one thing I don't have, actually. I've got spinach, arugula, and romaine lettuce.
But imo spinach > kale, at least in terms of taste.
I've never grown either though so we'll see how it goes.
Kale leaves get bitter when they get bigger. The small and medium leaves taste about like lettuce to me. They're awesome in fruit smoothies too
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PatrickKn


Registered: 07/10/11
Posts: 20,562
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Hm, I've only had bitter kale and have never liked it as food. Didn't know you could have not bitter kale.
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cannabinated


Registered: 01/03/13
Posts: 14,743
Loc: Outside
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heat makes all greens bitter
You have to have a succession of greens tailored to stand each season
If you are in a place with dramatic seasons
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Ima Trooper
Chilldog Extraordinaire



Registered: 02/21/08
Posts: 13,533
Loc: United States
Last seen: 2 days, 13 hours
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: psi]
#26611175 - 04/18/20 06:04 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
psi said:
Quote:
Ima Trooper said: Maybe a dumb question, but why is this good? I mean, I get that there being a lower fatality rate is a good thing, but the AMOUNT of deaths will still be the same, regardless of what the rate is.
The amount of deaths that have already happened is not changed by a lower death rate. But assuming most people eventually get it, a high death rate implies higher numbers of future deaths.
Ah, ok. That makes sense. I was looking at it from sort of a non-human perspective, like regardless of the number we assign it, it'll infect and kill the same number of people. Like how 10 o'clock isn't REALLY 10 o'clock, we just say it is, so that way we can say "I went to bed at 10 o'clock". It's arbitrary, but important for data.
-------------------- "Its moving of its own accord...and I like that in a shirt!" - Me, tripping. deCypher said: Schizophrenia beats dining alone, you know.
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pirate-blues


Registered: 10/15/12
Posts: 13,655
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Quote:
TheStallionMang said:
Quote:
pirate-blues said: Ugh Kale is the one thing I don't have, actually. I've got spinach, arugula, and romaine lettuce.
But imo spinach > kale, at least in terms of taste.
I've never grown either though so we'll see how it goes.
Kale leaves get bitter when they get bigger. The small and medium leaves taste about like lettuce to me. They're awesome in fruit smoothies too
I love spinach in fruit smoothies. I just love spinach in general though tbh.
I have had some really good kale, now that I recollect.
This is actually a great all around recipe, but I really love this way of preparing kale.
https://www.homechef.com/meals/roasted-chicken-with-fig-butter
...I also do really like kale chips just baked in the oven on low with a bit of olive oil, salt, and pepper. So maybe I will order some seeds. We'll see if it survives the deer and the bunnies. I'm planting this all at my folk's house because they have the space for it and I'm here til June, and potentially longer if things don't settle down by then. Lots of wildlife. I have a huge variety of melon seeds and can't plant any of them because the bears go crazy for it.
edit:
Don't want to get too off topic .
Edited by pirate-blues (04/18/20 06:52 PM)
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psi
TOAST N' JAM


Registered: 09/05/99
Posts: 31,456
Loc: 613
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Quote:
Ima Trooper said: Ah, ok. That makes sense. I was looking at it from sort of a non-human perspective, like regardless of the number we assign it, it'll infect and kill the same number of people. Like how 10 o'clock isn't REALLY 10 o'clock, we just say it is, so that way we can say "I went to bed at 10 o'clock". It's arbitrary, but important for data.
Yeah claims about the death rate are a tricky thing most of the time. Not everyone in a country or region can be tested usually, so the number of confirmed cases will tend to leave out huge numbers of mild and asymptomatic cases. But there is a temptation to just use the number of confirmed cases as if it's the total number of cases when trying to calculate the death rate.
If # of confirmed cases represents a lower bound on the true total number of people who have had it, then deaths divided by confirmed cases should give an upper bound on the true death rate I think. At least if you're not missing a significant number of deaths from the disease.
It's good to have these broader case studies where everyone in some bigger group was tested, like Asante's blood donors or that navy ship. One complication is that the breakdown of age and health status etc of blood donors or sailors could be quite different than that for the whole country.
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
Posts: 31,377
Loc: House of Mirrors
Last seen: 3 days, 21 hours
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Well they had told me 24 hrs but i already got my results 6.5 hrs later. Negative. Is it weird that i am disappointed?
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pirate-blues


Registered: 10/15/12
Posts: 13,655
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Nope. I would be too, part of me has this strange urge to 'get it over with', even though we still don't really have the hard evidence to confirm immunity just yet.
But my dad has autoimmune issues, and potentially tb(we're still waiting on a second blood test to confirm before going for chest xrays) and I am going to do everything in my power to keep my family safe, and that means not getting infected myself at the moment.
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TheStallionMang
Do U know who yur fuckin with?


Registered: 10/18/17
Posts: 4,528
Loc:
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Yeah, not that weird. I've thought the same thing. If it was just me I wouldn't be so careful but my wife has some immune system issues and we've got 2 young daughters at home so I'm careful AF
Pirate-blues, that recipe link you posted above looked so good my mouth literally watered when I saw it. Think I need to eat
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,049
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 4 hours, 10 minutes
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--------------------
NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
Edited by koods (04/18/20 07:57 PM)
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BANANA.MAN
Turd Ferguson

Registered: 01/11/15
Posts: 7,474
Loc: Ontario Canada
Last seen: 6 months, 1 day
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods] 1
#26611440 - 04/18/20 08:14 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said: apparently smokers do not have a higher risk for severe illness, based on a statistical analysis of cases
https://www.healio.com/primary-care/pulmonology/news/online/%7Bd0d5c5ab-7c2f-48e5-afb9-54c04fab73c3%7D/smoking-not-linked-to-covid-19-severity
I'm not saying smoking isnt bad or anything but I always suspected the warnings about smoking worsening covid were just based on the widespread view of smoking being generally unhealthy. I knew that even if it was true it probably wasnt based on any studies.
Thanks for sharing that. I'm releived.
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
Posts: 31,377
Loc: House of Mirrors
Last seen: 3 days, 21 hours
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods] 4
#26611447 - 04/18/20 08:16 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said: apparently smokers do not have a higher risk for severe illness, based on a statistical analysis of cases
https://www.healio.com/primary-care/pulmonology/news/online/%7Bd0d5c5ab-7c2f-48e5-afb9-54c04fab73c3%7D/smoking-not-linked-to-covid-19-severity
almost as if it is barely a lung disease at all
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: morrowasted] 2
#26611495 - 04/18/20 08:49 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Well this could be a weird twist
"The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.
Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms."
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.boston25news.com/news/cdc-reviewing-stunning-universal-testing-results-boston-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/%3foutputType=amp
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Seriously_trippin
Cosmic Guru Ganesh



Registered: 07/12/13
Posts: 14,471
Last seen: 6 seconds
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Quote:
pirate-blues said: Nope. I would be too, part of me has this strange urge to 'get it over with', even though we still don't really have the hard evidence to confirm immunity just yet.
But my dad has autoimmune issues, and potentially tb(we're still waiting on a second blood test to confirm before going for chest xrays) and I am going to do everything in my power to keep my family safe, and that means not getting infected myself at the moment.
I'm sorry about your dad. I get it, my dad has been on a ventilator twice before this and every weekend I take care of him I'm worried about being asymptomatic. It's kill him. Much love to you and your dad pb
-------------------- R.I.P Zombi3, Blue Helix Modest Mouse Zappa Slothie That Kid With The face ShLong Le Canard split_by_nine & Big Worm Forever Etched in the sands of time in the shroomery and ever so beloved and deeply missed by many
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers] 3
#26611519 - 04/18/20 09:00 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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I want some of that no-symptom homeless shelter corona
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