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Crazy_Horse
I’m Rick James, bitch!


Registered: 08/15/16
Posts: 13,283
Loc: Hampsterdam
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Crazy_Horse] 1
#26563443 - 03/28/20 03:06 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
#26563449 - 03/28/20 03:11 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
I don’t think you can calculate one From the other. They are related but R0 doesn’t take into account timeframes
Wouldn't they have to assume a time frame in order to calculate it though?
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Crazy_Horse] 1
#26563452 - 03/28/20 03:11 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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.259921049894873 to be exact is doubling every three days
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
#26563460 - 03/28/20 03:13 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
morrowasted said:
Quote:
I don’t think you can calculate one From the other. They are related but R0 doesn’t take into account timeframes
Wouldn't they have to assume a time frame in order to calculate it though?
R0 is simply how many additional people get infected by one person. It could take a day or a week or a year.
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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LogicaL Chaos
Ascension Energy & Alien UFOs




Registered: 05/12/07
Posts: 69,327
Loc: The Inexpressible...
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: koods]
#26563461 - 03/28/20 03:14 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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I think we need a few more decimal points....
My town is not practicing social isolating at all today. So many people shopping and driving around. 
At least the stores around town are implementing safer protocols. Like Burger King is drive-thru only and is using a "no contact" method with debit cards and food. Smart thinking
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
#26563464 - 03/28/20 03:15 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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I was just throwing that 15-25% figure out there anyway, now that I've done the calculation on the numbers for Harris county I see it's lower than that
135 cases 2 days ago, 60 today. difference of 25.
25/135 = 0.185 = 18.5% increase in 2 days
yes?
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
#26563474 - 03/28/20 03:19 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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New cases/(total cases - new cases)
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: LogicaL Chaos] 2
#26563477 - 03/28/20 03:20 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
LogicaL Chaos said: I think we need a few more decimal points....
My town is not practicing social isolating at all today. So many people shopping and driving around. 
At least the stores around town are implementing safer protocols. Like Burger King is drive-thru only and is using a "no contact" method with debit cards and food. Smart thinking 
Ever since this started I’ve never seen so many people out walking around
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
#26563479 - 03/28/20 03:20 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said:
R0 is simply how many additional people get infected by one person. It could take a day or a week or a year.
Surely they invoke assumptions about how long the disease has been in existence along with information about duration of potential to spread the illness and mode of transmission to calculate r0 for a new disease though? I'm struggling to find specific information about how they calculate it for a new disease like this
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LogicaL Chaos
Ascension Energy & Alien UFOs




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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: koods]
#26563483 - 03/28/20 03:22 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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haha, that's funny as fuck. Its like social isolation makes people wanna go outside and enjoy nature
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,049
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
#26563491 - 03/28/20 03:25 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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The R0 for hiv is more than the flu. Obviously the difference is the timescales involved, like the fact that HIV is a permanent infection and the flu is maybe a week or two. Obviously the flu spreads faster than HIV
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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Darwin23
INFJ



Registered: 10/08/10
Posts: 3,277
Loc: United States
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: LogicaL Chaos] 2
#26563497 - 03/28/20 03:26 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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So I decided to graph out Italy's numbers. The results are very encouraging.

Each bar represents a day and their value is the percent increases in deaths. As you can see from this graph, their percent increases have drastically dropped. Whatever they're doing, it's working.
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Take a look at my journal
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
#26563504 - 03/28/20 03:30 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said: The R0 for hiv is more than the flu. Obviously the difference is the timescales involved, like the fact that HIV is a permanent infection and the flu is maybe a week or two. Obviously the flu spreads faster than HIV
I hear you I guess I'm just saying I don't see how the series interval is useful for calculating the r0 of a new disease unless you presume a specific duration of disease existence. Like I said though I'm shit at math obviously you guys understand this conceptually better than I do
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: Darwin23]
#26563505 - 03/28/20 03:30 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Now you’re getting into calculus. Derivatives.
A reduction in the growth rate shows up as a decreasing slope when plotted logarithmicly
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
Edited by koods (03/28/20 03:34 PM)
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: Darwin23] 2
#26563510 - 03/28/20 03:31 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Darwin23 said: So I decided to graph out Italy's numbers. The results are very encouraging.

Each bar represents a day and their value is the percent increases in deaths. As you can see from this graph, their percent increases have drastically dropped. Whatever they're doing, it's working.
Maybe a lot of the most susceptible people have already died
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Thanatos10
Stranger



Registered: 01/19/15
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: Darwin23] 2
#26563513 - 03/28/20 03:32 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Darwin23 said: So I decided to graph out Italy's numbers. The results are very encouraging.

Each bar represents a day and their value is the percent increases in deaths. As you can see from this graph, their percent increases have drastically dropped. Whatever they're doing, it's working.
They placed a full lockdown on the country which helped cut down the number of new cases. The US however continues to rise because leaders are idiots.
-------------------- As lightless oblivion devours you, drown in the ever-blooming darkness.
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: morrowasted]
#26563517 - 03/28/20 03:33 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Trump just claimed that the reason it's spreading in Florida is mostly because New Yorkers are running away there
doesnt seem unlikely to me
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Guy1980
Registered: 09/11/12
Posts: 723
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: Darwin23]
#26563522 - 03/28/20 03:35 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Darwin23 said: Whatever they're doing, it's working.
Schools have been shut for 5 weeks. Total lockdown for the past 3 weeks.
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: koods] 1
#26563529 - 03/28/20 03:36 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said: Now you’re getting into calculus. Derivatives.
A reduction in the growth rate shows up as a decreasing slope when plotted logarithmicly

And once you understand that it’s easy to see that the US is way more fucked than Italy
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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Darwin23
INFJ



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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 - Data Analysis Edition [Re: morrowasted]
#26563535 - 03/28/20 03:40 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
morrowasted said:
Quote:
Darwin23 said: So I decided to graph out Italy's numbers. The results are very encouraging.

Each bar represents a day and their value is the percent increases in deaths. As you can see from this graph, their percent increases have drastically dropped. Whatever they're doing, it's working.
Maybe a lot of the most susceptible people have already died 
A dark conclusion. I like to hope that it's just their strict lock down exerting its influence on the numbers.
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Take a look at my journal
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