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InvisibleHunter hunter
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Hunter hunter]
    #26563287 - 03/28/20 01:47 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

So you get a viral infection.  It’s a specific virus.  You get better or die.  Then guess what this thing happens its an immune response to that specific thing infecting your body your body Ramps up and creates these things called antibodies.  It’s a part of your immune system.  Guess what you’re now immune to that specific virus.  Pretty neat.  It stays in your body and your immune system recognizes and has built in defenses to wipe out the virus as it enters much more quickly than before it had ever detected it. 

    Say you get sick freeze a steak.  Steak infected maybe.  Maybe you get better eat that steak.  You’re fine.  You won’t  keep getting the Coronavirus.


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    Eat the meat that’s at your feet.


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26563290 - 03/28/20 01:47 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Koods was saying the exponent was 0.15-0.25

If 100 people had it and the exponent was 0.25 the next day only 3 people would get it. The day after that no one would


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:whyyy:


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563302 - 03/28/20 01:51 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

bodhisatta said:
Quote:

morrowasted said:
Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

Harris county continuing to show fairly linear progression. Looks like we average 15 to 25% increases




That’s not linear. That’s exponential. The exponent being .15 -.25


okay thank you enough I'm not good at math what I meant is that the percentage increases day over day is not itself increasing as in some areas.

Doesnt the r0 of influenza 1.3 mean the corresponding exponent is 0.3?  If so then this is less contagious right now here in houston than the flu. Going strictly on number of confirmed cases of course


Please do correct me again if wrong



100 raised to the power of 0.25 is about 3
a 97% reduction in cases bro




n+n*.25

You cannot calculate the exponent from R0.



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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


Edited by koods (03/28/20 01:55 PM)


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563304 - 03/28/20 01:51 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Benefit of the doubt would be 1.25 but then its
100
300
1333
8000 and it's not nearly that exponential
76,300+


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InvisibleHunter hunter
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted] * 1
    #26563307 - 03/28/20 01:51 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

morrowasted said:
Quote:



They have done lots of tests and zero positives.  That’s kinda reassuring except they can only test people who are good enough at faking the symptoms





You can't fake a fever lol

This may not be reassuring but a lot of nurses dont know how to do nasopharyngeal swabs correctly and if you dont, it is useless and your negative can be considered false


Watch a video of how it is done and correct them if they do it wrong





  Well they only have 100 tests left.  So they want to be sure to only test people who they think actually have an active infection.  Doing their best to keep it exponential. 

  I bet they have no idea what they are doing.  They been going knuckles deep in the ass.  Shitty mess.  I’ll pass along the video.


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta] * 2
    #26563315 - 03/28/20 01:56 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

bodhisatta said:
Benefit of the doubt would be 1.25 but then its
100
300
1333
8000 and it's not nearly that exponential
76,300+




You’re not doing it right


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Hunter hunter] * 1
    #26563318 - 03/28/20 01:57 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Yall are taking stool...? Wtf


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26563329 - 03/28/20 02:05 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

100+100*.25 = 125
125+125*.25 = 156
156+156*.25 = 195
195+195*.25 = 244
244+244*.25 = 304

This is exponential growth

In a bank account it’s called compounding interest

For the virus you are getting a 25% return per day, as opposed to 1% per year for a deposit


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


Edited by koods (03/28/20 02:09 PM)


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26563334 - 03/28/20 02:08 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

bodhisatta said:
Quote:

morrowasted said:
Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

Harris county continuing to show fairly linear progression. Looks like we average 15 to 25% increases




That’s not linear. That’s exponential. The exponent being .15 -.25


okay thank you enough I'm not good at math what I meant is that the percentage increases day over day is not itself increasing as in some areas.

Doesnt the r0 of influenza 1.3 mean the corresponding exponent is 0.3?  If so then this is less contagious right now here in houston than the flu. Going strictly on number of confirmed cases of course


Please do correct me again if wrong



100 raised to the power of 0.25 is about 3
a 97% reduction in cases bro




n n*.25




That's 100 125 156.25

The exponent being 1.0484 to start and slowly decaying
1001.0484=125
1251.0462=156.25


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:whyyy:


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563338 - 03/28/20 02:09 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Exponent is a limit approaching 1


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InvisibleHunter hunter
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26563339 - 03/28/20 02:09 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
100+100*.25 = 125
125+125*.25 = 156
156+156*.25 = 195
195+195*.25 = 244
244+244*.25 = 304

This is exponential growth

In a bank account it’s called compounding interest





125 to 156 to 195 is not exponential growth.


I was kidding about the shitty knuckles.  Lol


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    Eat the meat that’s at your feet.


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Hunter hunter]
    #26563341 - 03/28/20 02:10 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Yes it is exponential growth


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563342 - 03/28/20 02:10 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

2441.0399=304


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Hunter hunter]
    #26563346 - 03/28/20 02:14 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

What if they tried to start dosing us with tiny quantities of the virus, not enough to cause severe infection, just enough for our immune system to recognize it and work on antibodies. I wonder if that's possible


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26563349 - 03/28/20 02:16 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

bowtie doctor from New Orleans on MSNBC just claimed 80% of people are asymptomatic. I wonder where he is getting that figure

he did discuss the fact that many doctors had been assuming an adenovirus was going around b/c a lot of negative flu tests were coming back before they realized it might be COVID19 so just like NYC it's probably been in NO longer than we realize


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: morrowasted]
    #26563353 - 03/28/20 02:18 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

I'd wager philly has had corona since early jan


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InvisibleHunter hunter
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: koods]
    #26563356 - 03/28/20 02:19 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Yes it is exponential growth



  Ah shit.  Are those real numbers for cases?  What would the graph look like over that period of time graphed out for 6 months?  Vs.  total population in that area?  My bad.


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InvisibleHunter hunter
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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Hunter hunter]
    #26563358 - 03/28/20 02:20 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

The problem with those numbers are only people suspected of having or who have died.  We would need everyone or at least a random sample of the population to get a real number.


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Hunter hunter] * 3
    #26563361 - 03/28/20 02:22 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)



Logarithmic



Compare to the real world. The growth of cases is almost perfectly modeled by n+n*x



The key to understanding exponential growth is it looks linear on a logarithmic scale.


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


Edited by koods (03/28/20 02:35 PM)


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Re: Coronavirus 2020 aka Wuhan Coronavirus aka COVID-19 [Re: Hunter hunter]
    #26563368 - 03/28/20 02:28 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Hunter hunter said:
Quote:

koods said:
Yes it is exponential growth



  Ah shit.  Are those real numbers for cases?  What would the graph look like over that period of time graphed out for 6 months?  Vs.  total population in that area?  My bad.




25% daily increase is about what we are seeing right now

So yes that accurately represents daily increase

The second chart is 35% increase

After a month the difference is huge


--------------------
NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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