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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Anyone worried about "not"-QE?
#26380095 - 12/13/19 08:10 PM (4 years, 1 month ago) |
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https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/13/fed-ramping-up-repo-operations-to-head-off-year-end-funding-issues.html
Quote:
All told, the operations are designed to inject at least another $425 billion into the system.
That is a ton of money being printed. I've been increasingly bearish for months now and I feel like this market is going to break any month now. Within 3 - 12 months the cracks the Fed is trying to plaster over are going to shatter the foundations. The fed has no room to cut and they can't afford a recession, but it's coming anyway and I think it's going to be the nastiest one yet.
I'm currently in about 35% gold, 20% bonds, rest still in equities and maybe 2% in couple of longer dated puts on an index as a hedge, but I think I'll keep rolling these longer puts as they expire.
Anyone have some thoughts? Or is this time different?
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Brian Jones
Club 27



Registered: 12/18/12
Posts: 12,340
Loc: attending Snake Church
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The Vanguard Group just released a report saying not to expect over 3% returns annualized after inflation for the next decade.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: Anyone worried about "not"-QE? [Re: Brian Jones]
#26381990 - 12/14/19 07:44 PM (4 years, 1 month ago) |
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2000 to 2013 was basically flat after dividends and inflation. It wouldn't be unheard of.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Or maybe I'm completely wrong and it's time to go full bull.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
Edited by Ahab McBathsalts (12/17/19 05:53 PM)
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Sempeur
Tourist

Registered: 01/12/20
Posts: 59
Loc: Canada
Last seen: 3 years, 1 month
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I think the West is going to trend towards what the Bank of Japan is doing, which is to say more "Not-QE". Their balance sheet has now grown to exceed the size of their GDP and their interest rates are going negative.
We are entering a world in which central banks have very little means of preventing recessions, besides printing money (not a super great option in a lot of scenarios...) and maybe having a hand in govt. financial policy change. The new line of thinking is that possibly recessions aren't bad, which kind of just seems like the press trying to look on the bright side in a bad situation (or prevent panic, but whatever).
We are in uncharted territory for sure.
Sources: BoJ GDP BoJ Interest rate Recession Indicators
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Be strange, but don't be a stranger.
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BayerPhi
Always Learning


Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: Anyone worried about "not"-QE? [Re: Sempeur]
#26463286 - 02/01/20 09:21 AM (3 years, 11 months ago) |
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Worried? No! Did you watch the last FOMC meeting where every reporter, but one, had less than half a brain asking questions? Where NOBODY asked about the consequences of inflation?
NOT. ONE. PERSON.
"When one injects $500 Billion into the markets over the past 6-9 months, because the banks were over-leveraged. Was this to avoid a liquidity crisis, or to rid the world of the dollar's dominance? Furthermore, why are we keeping this bull market going that's been fueled solely on debt, Mr. Powell?"
The cart isn't being pulled by the Bulls, the cart has been dragging a dead Bull since Dec. 2018.
How long did it take Apple to reach the 1 trillion market cap on the back of Chinese slave labor? Powell and his cronies just injected half of that into the market in a matter of months. Probably to secret spite Trump giving him shit.
"Apres moi le deluge" - Trump and every dumbass aristocrat in the history books.
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