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 BayerPhi
Always Learning
Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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 Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion  [Re: sh4d0ws] 1
#25974675 - 05/05/19 09:51 PM (4 years, 11 months ago) |
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Welp...
Code:
module Economy
if 'tradeTalks.exe' = crash, then 'tariffMan.exe' = active;
else if buy puts or enter cash;
run;
RIP all call holders.
F.
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 geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,589
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 Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: BayerPhi]
#25979514 - 05/08/19 09:22 AM (4 years, 11 months ago) |
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 ... ain't that the truth. I'm away from my desk anyway this week, and decided (foolishly), to let some very profitable positions in PANW and BABA ride over the weekend, only to give back all of my gains (and then some) on Monday when my stops were hit. Such is trading. Only things I'm still holding outside of broader ETFs in retirement accounts are CGC and LMT. CGC is fully insulated from any trade issues, although it will still be affected by broad market momentum. I would use further weakness to build up a longer term position. LMT is also holding up rather well in its post earnings bull flag and I will be looking to add if it continues to hold over the coming weeks.
I would not however recommend trading in this environment until the market has more time to digest whatever comes of the trade talks this week. There is just too much volatility due to the headline risk, so you're really just gambling if you're making big directional bets. Might be able to do some intraday swing flips if you're very nimble, but that type of play is generally not productive for the vast majority of market participants.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥  ╥π╬...
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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 Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26005267 - 05/21/19 10:17 AM (4 years, 10 months ago) |
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The market has become more volatile as the S&P wrestles with its 50 day moving average amid trade concerns. Best to continue to keep positions smaller than usual and trade less frequently for now.
LMT slowly grinding higher out of its high base. If you don't have any, I think you can pick some up here for longer term positioning, but it would be better to buy around $330 - $335, as buying breakouts in this market is generally not a rewarding experience.
CGC has pulled back to an uptrending support line just above its 200 day moving average. I got stopped out of my trading positions quite some time ago, and I don't expect CGC to launch to new highs in short order, but this issue is well insulated from trade concerns and the long term opportunity for a vertically integrated market leader in the burgeoning cannabis sector is, I believe, significant. I think here at $40-$45 is a good place to be building up longer term positions, and I have added to my core position of January 2019 $40 calls. I intend for CGC to be a core constituent of my portfolio at least until we see federal legalization in the US, which may well indeed take quite a while longer than the 7 months I have left on my call option contracts. In that event, I will roll out to later dates.
COUP is a high grower that I have been watching, but I didn't have the guts to buy the breakout last week, despite the fact that it had held up remarkably well during the carnage of the past few weeks. Earnings are just around the corner, so I won't be buying it now. Opportunity missed so far as I'm concerned, but this is one you might want to keep on your watch screen for an entry later on down the line.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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BayerPhi
Always Learning
Registered: 05/28/12
Posts: 1,884
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26030219 - 06/03/19 10:03 AM (4 years, 10 months ago) |
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Made 100% on an AMD calls and MSFT puts today; sold near open. Done for the week.
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,589
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26047863 - 06/12/19 10:57 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Caught a quick 30% on some SPY June $292 puts that I put on yesterday morning when the S&P gapped higher right into the top end of some very wide Bollinger Bands, after a ridiculously fast run up from its 200 day moving average last week. Figured it was overextended and due for a pullback, was good for a quick reversion trade but I closed half the position near the close yesterday, and the other half was closed today.
LMT - Ended up expanding higher but has since fallen back into the range. Might not be a bad place to add to a longer term position, but I wouldn't do it until we see a green daily candle indicating that there is some buying interest, as the selling over the past few days was fairly heavy. I closed my position on this.
CRON - Cannabis stock (with a large investment by Altria - parent of Marlboro cigarettes) holding above its 50 day moving average, printing higher lows after a touch & go at its 200 day. Short term consolidation within a volatility expansion after a high volume breakout from its 200 day. Could be setting up for more upside, no need to rush. A move above $17.50 and $18 would be levels to consider adding. Stops at $16.50 - $16.79 for short term (intraday) trading positions. Wouldn't want to be involved in any sort of trading position below $16 (home of the 50 day moving average), but would keep an eye out for a bounce at $15.
AVTR - Chemicals company / lab supplier IPO that has been consolidating for the past few weeks. Hit an all time high this morning, which is generally a favorable setup. I like the company sector as well, so I'm putting just a few Nov $17.50 calls on my books for longer term exposure in case this one does turn out to have legs.
Generally, still being cautious. The run up last week was faster and steeper than most that I've seen in my 15 years trading. That takes a lot of buying power, and expectations for continued upside should be held in check. If you missed that bounce off of the S&P's 200 day, you missed it. Don't try to force trades in attempts to make up for it. Wait for opportunity. There could always be a news event like a trade deal with China that could propel the market to new highs in short order, but that sort of uncertain hypothetical is not the sort of thing you should ever be banking your trades on.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
 
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,164
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB 
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26059929 - 06/18/19 04:05 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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My brokerage account finally peaked over 6 figures today. I'm pretty stoked. It took a long time to get here, but I'm hoping to get to 7 soon. In about 15% gold, 20% bonds, rest is equities. It's probably the most conservative my portfolio has looked in a long time.
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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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McGrimm
Professor of Peace
Registered: 04/24/17
Posts: 773
Last seen: 14 days, 7 hours
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26059964 - 06/18/19 04:23 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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In Peace or Pieces we shall move forward.
Grimm
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,589
Loc: city of angels
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
#26061498 - 06/19/19 11:09 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Congrat's Ahab 
Added some very small long exposure to LULU and OMCL yesterday. Both of these are printing all time highs today and coming out of multi month consolidation periods. If the SPY weren't so extended and we weren't waiting on the Fed decision later today, I would be more aggressive, but because of the fact that we are extended and the market's reaction to whatever the Fed might say is a crapshoot, I just can't get too aggressive here.
Also leaning short on BYND, went short yesterday and added today. This plant based meat alternative company priced it's IPO at $25 last month and traded up to $200 yesterday (largely on account of shorts getting squeezed). Shorts could continue to get squeezed, but yesterday's high volume washout gives me some confidence that the stock will be heading lower over the coming weeks. You would want to keep your stop above today's high around $175 if you take the short side.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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ManianFH
living in perverty
Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,996
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26063626 - 06/20/19 12:38 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Have 6k for my retirement (roth ira) this year, and am thinking about throwing all of that at TSLA this year. It would otherwise go into a fund of somekind but I dont have a specific target.
Tesla seems like a decent shot with their recent acquisition of new battery tech and some china factory that should open up soon. I would just hold it forever I guess. They took a big dip from their december price so I think its an ok spot to enter, but maybe I am missing something that a pro here understands.
Any thoughts?
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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "
ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See
Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26063659 - 06/20/19 12:59 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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I think Tesla is a bit of a gamble, although I can understand your interest. The "big name" car companies are hot on the heels of Tsla with self-driving cars.
I think most would suggest an index fund of some sort to diversify your money a bit. I don't have any advice per se, but exercise caution with buying TSLA (even at these levels).
I anticipate the market taking a leg-down soon (although I have said that for 1.5 years), and that would be a good time to dump your money in a fund. Others might tell you to invest everything in a fund now. Mileage varies.
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ManianFH
living in perverty
Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,996
Last seen: 11 hours, 12 minutes
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: AroundtheSon]
#26064812 - 06/21/19 12:03 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Thanks for your input
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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "
ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
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Registered: 05/08/01
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 Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] 2
#26065330 - 06/21/19 09:07 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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I'd echo AroundTheSun's sentiments re: TSLA. If the grand vision pans out, and Tesla gets regulatory approval that would allow their fleet to run in full autonomous mode, thereby creating an income proposition for idle vehicles, the stock will be a huge winner. I think that there are worse bets you could take, and if you believe in their story, go for it (or split the difference and put half in TSLA and half in a diversified fund). They are extremely capital intensive however, and while they have a definite lead on the competition, it is true that pretty much every other major automaker sees the writing on the wall and is working on competing products. It's a battleground stock, with true believers on both the long and the short side, and you should expect that as a result, it will continue to be very volatile.
In other news... The BYND short I have on is working, and I am going to let it run into next week at least. CGC reported a wider loss than expected last night, although their total revenue rose in similar scale to the rise in their expected loss. The stock is holding at its 200 day moving average right around $40, and so long as the June 3rd low of $38 holds up, I will stick with this one. I had lightened up my exposure going into earnings (which is a good habit to get into for any large position you may hold), and decided to buy back a little bit on the drawdown this morning. I would consider adding again on a move down to $38 that finds other buyers stepping in, or a move above $42.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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ManianFH
living in perverty
Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,996
Last seen: 11 hours, 12 minutes
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26067114 - 06/22/19 07:21 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Thanks for your input Geo
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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "
ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Brian Jones
Club 27
Registered: 12/18/12
Posts: 12,426
Loc: attending Snake Church
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26068056 - 06/22/19 06:23 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Do you guys who are active traders have them in retirement accounts, or do you have to pay income tax every year on them?
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"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon
I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.
The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,164
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones]
#26068868 - 06/23/19 06:56 AM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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I still have some room in my retirement accounts, so my funds are all in there. In Canada the RRSP (401K) program allows you to roll forward any unused contributions forward and use them in the future. I don't think that's the Case in the USA.
The TFSA (Roth IRA) account is completely independent of the RRSP and contributions have no bearing on each other. The TFSA is independent of income too, and is a flat $6,000 a year available to anyone that is over 18. Any unused room rolls forward.
Because all of our room rolls forward in Canada it generally makes sense to max out all your room first before putting anything in taxable accounts.
Both the TFSA and RRSP have some obscure rules about dividends that come from foreign companies and index funds. Especially when they are outside of the USA and Canada. https://www.pwlcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/2016-06-17_-Bender-Bortolotti_Foreign_Withholding_Taxes_Hyperlinked.pdf
That link is the best summary I have found. Foreign witholding taxes likely only amount to .3% of a drag on your foreign investments. Almost less than the management fees probably, but it is still something to consider.
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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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AroundtheSon
Learning to See
Registered: 01/11/07
Posts: 4,427
Loc: Midwest.
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones]
#26071217 - 06/24/19 02:36 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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I try to max out my Roth IRA each year. Any extra savings goes into a brokerage account that does not have the same expectations/rules.
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geokills
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Brian Jones] 1
#26071926 - 06/24/19 09:32 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Brian Jones said:
Do you guys who are active traders have them in retirement accounts, or do you have to pay income tax every year on them?
Definitely strive to max out any tax advantaged (e.g. retirement) accounts you may be eligible for. I do as much trading in my tax advantaged accounts as possible, but depending on how capital is allocated in any given snapshot, sometimes you'll need to trade in accounts that result in taxes payable. Don't fear the tax man. If you're paying taxes, that means you're making money. And if you can trade successfully, having the discipline to know what you're on the hook for come tax time, shouldn't be too hard.
On a separate note, CGC did trade down to $38.44 today. It's never fun to see red on your screen, but so long as you had a plan (and you always should!), you'll know what to do. When the stock stabilized in the morning and created a higher intraday high on the 15 minute chart, that was my signal to add. The strong action into the close created a "bullish hammer", which allows for a hard stop below today's low on my full position. This creates an opportunity to be aggressive, as earnings came out, the stock sold off on the news, and was able to find committed buyers on the second day. Anyone who doesn't own this, this would be a great time to pick some up. The cannabis growth story is impressive. Just keep a stop below $38.44 (5.2% below the closing price).
Also, BYND short, killing it. 
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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ManianFH
living in perverty
Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,996
Last seen: 11 hours, 12 minutes
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26123402 - 08/05/19 11:10 PM (4 years, 8 months ago) |
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have been paying attention to CGC since you had started mentioning it Geo - am wondering if there is a decent buy opportunity at its $31 pricepoint (considering you thought $38 was a good buypoint), or if you think there is a good reason its going down, and perhaps staying down. Did the drop trigger a stop for you?
I have $1000 left to invest this year and in a couple weeks will likely throw it at CGC.
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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "
ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,589
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 9 hours, 12 minutes
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
#26124283 - 08/06/19 02:41 PM (4 years, 8 months ago) |
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I was stopped out of some of my CGC, but (somewhat regrettably) kept a sizable position on the books. I do still think they are the best positioned cannabis player. Unfortunately, the market has been running on fumes for a while and the recent carnage is likely to, at best, keep us in a sideways trading range for a while. So from a trading perspective, I have a hard time getting behind anything in this environment, but for a long term account, I think you can be buying some CGC if you don't already have a good sized position.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,164
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
#26128884 - 08/09/19 06:12 PM (4 years, 8 months ago) |
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I aggressively sold stock this week. The rapid fall in bond yields and rise in gold, geopolitical issues, trade, brexit and an inverted yield curve has me worried.
The risk is to the downside. I'll be at about 20% bonds, 20% gold, 15% cash and 45% equities. It is by far the most conservative my portfolio has ever looked, but I just can't see the market sustaining itself over the next 6 months and would expect a 30% draw down in equities over the next 18 months.
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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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