christopera said:

Show me a single autonomous truck that is actively in use. We can make this short, you can't. Where are they? The 20 year countdown to the replacement of truck drivers started like 4 years ago. With 16 years left there simply isn't enough time left to meet that deadline.¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Technological change can happen very quickly. This happened two years ago the tech is close to being mainstreamed. https://www.denverpost.com/2017/06/29/self-driving-beer-truck-world-record/ You are right it won't happen tomorrow but within a decade the trucking industry is going to be very different.



I own a machine shop, I also work a day job in construction. I changed my shop from manual to CNC machines in 2014. How does the labor force work? Well, I need a person to operate the machine, that's the same as it used to be. However, after the change I now need a person to do the models in CAD, and then I need another person to create the program in CAM. I am lucky I found one person that can do both CAD and CAM. We make the same parts we made before, we just do it much faster. Nevertheless, I need one extra person despite automation. The other situation is that I used to service my machines myself. That's no longer the case. When the machine breaks, I call the factory, they send a service tech. That service tech wouldn't have a job if it wasn't for the machines. Its obviously going to vary from industry to industry but certain ones are certainly going to be ore resilient. The question is will those industries be able to absorb all the displaced workers?

Don't get me wrong, I believe we are closer than ever to having automation replace jobs on a fairly large scale, but the panic isn't warranted. Not until we figure out if jobs replacement is offset by new labor sectors, thus far in history, it has always been offset and I tend to believe this will continue.
Check out the first video I posted it explains why this time it will be different. If you don't like the art style there is another video called Humans need not apply that also addresses why new jobs won't be created in
sufficient quantities to deal with this issue.




I personally am looking forward to a 15 hour work week (John Keynes) but it's not even on the 20 year horizon for me. Currently I am much closer to 70 hours.
I to think the goal of policy should be to decrease the working week.

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christopera said:

That isn't an example of an automated truck in use. That's an example of one truck driving one route autonomously. The two things may be closely nuanced rhetorically, but in function they are light years apart.

The production rates of new trucks is low enough that it will take 20 years or more to replace the existing non-autonomous fleet. That's a fact of production, and this is in the long haul sector only. Let's remember, there isn't a single autonomous truck currently on the market. Not one.

What about short haul where the truck driver unloads the truck? What's the point of automating the driving when somebody still has to ride on the truck to unload it? The accounting doesn't make sense.

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ballsalsa said:

How will autonomous trucks defend themselves from vengeful teamsters?

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ballsalsa said:

How will autonomous trucks defend themselves from vengeful teamsters?

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christopera said:

For every article you find that says automation decreases the number of jobs you can find one that says the opposite.

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Exactly.  And given the extremely low U6 unemployment rate right now, it appears real world empirical data is proving the hypothetical gloom and doom data wrong. 

Things could change someday, but they haven't started changing yet.

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:

christopera said:

For every article you find that says automation decreases the number of jobs you can find one that says the opposite.

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Exactly.  And given the extremely low U6 unemployment rate right now, it appears real world empirical data is proving the hypothetical gloom and doom data wrong. 

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christopera said:

I live in Pittsburgh, pretty much the core of traditional rust belt cities. We got emptied when steel left. We have recovered rather nicely though. Guess what the core of our recovery is? Automation and health care.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-02-13/pittsburgh-shows-the-way-to-a-rust-belt-rebound

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YangSupporter said:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:

christopera said:

For every article you find that says automation decreases the number of jobs you can find one that says the opposite.

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Exactly.  And given the extremely low U6 unemployment rate right now, it appears real world empirical data is proving the hypothetical gloom and doom data wrong. 

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Mmm no I'd say the data proves me right especially when we look at the rust belt. Its great that you are doing well many Americans are not and automation is not going to help them unless we change our economic thinking. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-jobs-lost-automation/

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Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:

YangSupporter said:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:

christopera said:

For every article you find that says automation decreases the number of jobs you can find one that says the opposite.

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Exactly.  And given the extremely low U6 unemployment rate right now, it appears real world empirical data is proving the hypothetical gloom and doom data wrong. 

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Mmm no I'd say the data proves me right especially when we look at the rust belt. Its great that you are doing well many Americans are not and automation is not going to help them unless we change our economic thinking. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-jobs-lost-automation/

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What "data" proves you right?  You just presented an article that includes NO empirical evidence that the net number of jobs is down.  Yes, some jobs WILL go away over time.  That's been happening forever.  But will the number of total jobs available ever go down?  Who knows, it's never happened before.

Rather than trying to convince people that jobs will go away anytime soon (that's a hard argument to win), you should simply try to convince them that UBI is a good idea whether it happens or not.

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Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:

I'm in favor of automation wherever possible.  But again, I don't know if that means net jobs go away.

In my current company, my current JOB is literally to automate manual processes.  But not one single job is going away as a result.  I am doing this to give people more time to do other things that benefit the company that they otherwise wouldn't have time to do.

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Quote:

Wal-Mart, which is the largest employer in the US, said at least 300 stores will introduce machines that scan shelves for out-of-stock products. Meanwhile, so-called "autonomous floor scrubbers" will be deployed in 1,500 stores, and conveyor belts that automatically scan and sort products as they are loaded off of trucks will more than double to 1,200. Another 900 stores will install 16-foot-high towers that will allow customers to pick up their online grocery orders without interacting with humans.

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Quote:

As part of the company's streamlining process, Walmart is eliminating the overnight shift that restocks the aisles at about 300 stores, and while it will aim to transition those employees to other hours, it will most likely end up firing most of them especially since the impacted stores are primarily smaller ones with lower annual sales or customer traffic.

At the same time, Walmart is accelerating its robotic rollout and is the expanding the use of a backroom conveyor system that takes boxes of products from trucks and scans them to speed their delivery to the shelves. The so-called “FAST Unloader” machine will be in 1,700 stores by the end of the year, up from 400 now, leading to even more mass layoffs of highly unskilled workers.

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