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DividedQuantum
Outer Head


Registered: 12/06/13
Posts: 9,886
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Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan
#25470147 - 09/18/18 02:32 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan: study
Global targets aimed at warding off runaway planetary warming could be breached sooner than expected, experts warned Monday, as gases released by melting permafrost threaten to undermine human efforts to avert climate disaster.
Under the current rescue plan, outlined in the 2015 Paris climate treaty, countries have agreed to limit global temperature rises to "well below" two degrees Celsius, and 1.5C if deemed possible.
That course of action assumes that dealing with manmade greenhouse gases -- whether by slowing their emissions or removing them from the atmosphere -- will be enough to bring global warming under control.
What climate models do not allow for are scenarios in which Earth begins to contribute to the problem, new research shows.
A team of experts from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria said Monday they had for the first time included projected emissions from melting permafrost in global climate change models, and the results prompted concern.
"Permafrost carbon release is caused by global warming, and will certainly diminish the budget of CO2 we can emit while staying below a certain level of global warming," said IIASA research scholar and lead study author Thomas Gasser.
As reliance on fossil fuels persists, scientists have calculated that we are likely to "overshoot" the Paris temperature targets in the short to medium term.
https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/melting-permafrost-threatens-climate-rescue-plan-study-doc-1960vc1
-------------------- Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici
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Phegnomeanon
The Phenomagnome



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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: DividedQuantum]
#25470163 - 09/18/18 02:40 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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The largest carbon producer in the world is the decaying permafrost.
People don’t talk about this much but we are coming out of a ice age. This cycle of glacial and interglacial periods were going on long before we could make fire. Even with no input from humans, all the glaciers will melt and the oceans will rise.
But don’t worry another 40 thousand years from now the glaciers will all come back.
It’s pretty egotistical to think we have that much impact on Mother Nature.
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DividedQuantum
Outer Head


Registered: 12/06/13
Posts: 9,886
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Phegnomeanon]
#25470433 - 09/18/18 04:42 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Even if that were the case, still, the evidence is clear and unequivocal: we're accelerating it.
-------------------- Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici
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Phegnomeanon
The Phenomagnome



Registered: 08/04/18
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: DividedQuantum]
#25470516 - 09/18/18 05:04 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Just wiki “glacial period” it’s an interesting read. Any pollutants produced by us will only aid this process.
If i add a handful of rice to the sack it is contributing. How big is the handful compared to its volume? That is what the whole argument is about. Unfortunately the science of global warming hasn’t been around long enough to vet itself fully.
Edited by Phegnomeanon (09/18/18 05:11 PM)
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pineninja
Dream Weaver



Registered: 08/17/14
Posts: 12,469
Loc: South
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Phegnomeanon]
#25470572 - 09/18/18 05:20 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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"It’s pretty egotistical to think we have that much impact on Mother Nature."
Set of all the bombs and watch what happens.
We are more than capable of ducking shit up. Look at the ozone depletion and then coordinated and effective response. Even then people said it couldn't be us....
-------------------- Just a fool on the hill.
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Phegnomeanon
The Phenomagnome



Registered: 08/04/18
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: pineninja]
#25470650 - 09/18/18 05:46 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Well, all this we are worried about is happening only on the crust of the earth which only comprises 1% of the earth’s mass. None of this has any impact on the mantle, liquid outercore, or the solid inner core of this planet. Mother Nature has no idea we are here.
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Phegnomeanon
The Phenomagnome



Registered: 08/04/18
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Phegnomeanon]
#25470658 - 09/18/18 05:49 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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The Yellowstone caldera blowing or an asteroid the size of a state impacting us. Mother Nature would feel that.
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Tulipslave
Homo sapiens sapiens, lol

Registered: 07/25/17
Posts: 12,000
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Phegnomeanon]
#25470664 - 09/18/18 05:53 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Phegnomeanon said: The largest carbon producer in the world is the decaying permafrost.
People don’t talk about this much but we are coming out of a ice age. This cycle of glacial and interglacial periods were going on long before we could make fire. Even with no input from humans, all the glaciers will melt and the oceans will rise.
But don’t worry another 40 thousand years from now the glaciers will all come back.
It’s pretty egotistical to think we have that much impact on Mother Nature.
the last i read we are 100-300 years away from ENTERING an ice age, not exiting an ice age
warming cycles ALWAYS precede an ice age
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Phegnomeanon
The Phenomagnome



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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Tulipslave]
#25470695 - 09/18/18 06:03 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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At different points in time on this planet:
The air wasn’t breathable
The entire surface was covered with liquid water
The entire surface was covered in ice
The magnetic poles have flipped
There was no ozone layer
There were 3 foot long carnivorous dragon flies and lizards the size of buildings
It’s pretty egotistical to think the planet has to remain the way that we are most comfortable with it.
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Tulipslave
Homo sapiens sapiens, lol

Registered: 07/25/17
Posts: 12,000
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Phegnomeanon]
#25470742 - 09/18/18 06:17 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Phegnomeanon said: At different points in time on this planet:
The air wasn’t breathable
The entire surface was covered with liquid water
The entire surface was covered in ice
The magnetic poles have flipped
There was no ozone layer
There were 3 foot long carnivorous dragon flies and lizards the size of buildings
It’s pretty egotistical to think the planet has to remain the way that we are most comfortable with it.
reply-to fail? cause i didn't say anything to warrant that post directed at me
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Phegnomeanon
The Phenomagnome



Registered: 08/04/18
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Tulipslave]
#25470754 - 09/18/18 06:22 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Sorry man my bad. I meant to reply to my self
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Tulipslave
Homo sapiens sapiens, lol

Registered: 07/25/17
Posts: 12,000
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Phegnomeanon]
#25471127 - 09/18/18 08:10 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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i do agree with you, though, that it is highly egotistical to think that things would/could/should stay the same for our sole species.
it's a tough line to walk from living/loving this experience, knowing we are destroying damn near everything in our path (i work in restoration, and even we have to use gasoline/oils/manufactured equipment to do our jobs to work/get to work to help the forests/rivers/creeks/etc...), and knowing that we, homo sapiens sapiens, are a mere blip on the timeline of this planet, which ultimately will be mostly lifeless long before it is consumed by the sun as it dies
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Phegnomeanon
The Phenomagnome



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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Tulipslave]
#25471662 - 09/18/18 11:56 PM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Waste is bad. Pollution is bad. Unsustainably exploiting every resource at our disposal until its extinction is bad. I don’t want anyone to think that I don’t care.
We are not really effecting the planet, however. We are definitely effecting ourselves and all life on this planet.
We are definitely not good stewards of this very special place.
I guess my whole point is that climates change. Hell, whole continents move and on a geological scale we haven’t been here very long.
If restoration is the goal what time period is to be chosen? The Precambrian, Mesozoic, Cenozoic? Why now? What is so special about us and today?
Before plants there was no oxygen in the atmosphere. The planet was around billions of years before plants. Want to restore that?
Edited by Phegnomeanon (09/19/18 12:15 AM)
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Tulipslave
Homo sapiens sapiens, lol

Registered: 07/25/17
Posts: 12,000
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Phegnomeanon] 2
#25472137 - 09/19/18 07:12 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Phegnomeanon said: Waste is bad. Pollution is bad. Unsustainably exploiting every resource at our disposal until its extinction is bad. I don’t want anyone to think that I don’t care.
We are not really effecting the planet, however. We are definitely effecting ourselves and all life on this planet.
We are definitely not good stewards of this very special place.
I guess my whole point is that climates change. Hell, whole continents move and on a geological scale we haven’t been here very long.
If restoration is the goal what time period is to be chosen? The Precambrian, Mesozoic, Cenozoic? Why now? What is so special about us and today?
Before plants there was no oxygen in the atmosphere. The planet was around billions of years before plants. Want to restore that?
the why is a good question. Before the logging industry destroyed millennia of fire-evolved species/habitat in Humboldt County, CA, there were stretches of old-growth redwood, doug fir, madrone, tan oak, and live oak that went on for hundreds of miles. The natives generally didn't invade these areas, save for some who did live in the rainforest/river valleys, but most of them kept to the oak-woodland-meadows. They grasped the concept of fire and its role in the area, and did their best to mimic its effects; as well, they understood the dangers of predominantly doug-fir forests and how destructive they could be to the oak "crops" the natives tended/encouraged.
So, while we may only be talking 10-20k years ago, the crew i work on tries to reset modern-day, even-aged forests or dense forests where the more hardy and fire-resistant trees are being threatened by younger, faster-growing, canopy over-taking trees are thriving because natural wildfire has been suppressed. These old-growth forests had a fairly self-maintaining way of life, even before the natives got on the scene and started actively geo-engineering the land for their needs (again, oak acrons, tan-bark, hazel switches, wild berries, etc...) So we are just trying to put things back to a point where the forests can self-maintain without being overrun while also hardening properties for the inevitable wildfires that will occur someday.
Thinning/fuel reduction/prescribed fire/etc...but old-growth restoration is the idea behind it.
That's the eco-why. The other why is because i enjoy the work; it's fun, it pays well, it's rewarding physically and mentally/spiritually, it keeps me in tip-top physical shape, it encourages me to stay on a stable schedule/routine and strive to be regimented even in my off-time. I have developed a deep connection with fire in the last decade, and the connection grows stronger each day, a throw-back to our ancestral heritage.
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Phegnomeanon
The Phenomagnome



Registered: 08/04/18
Posts: 511
Loc: SE USA
Last seen: 1 month, 27 days
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Tulipslave]
#25472214 - 09/19/18 08:03 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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I am 100% for sustainability especially in our forests. The best guitars were made from Honduran mahogany. Too bad we will never see forests of those guys again.
I think we see eye to eye on a lot really.
Keep up your work it is important and I commend you for your efforts. Everyone should!!
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pacmanbreed



Registered: 10/12/16
Posts: 3,829
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Tulipslave]
#25472225 - 09/19/18 08:14 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Well said, Reforestation is one of the keys. in the grand picture of symbiosis, We as a part of nature are trully frugivores..
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mndfreeze 
Shroomery Secret Service




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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Tulipslave]
#25474300 - 09/20/18 03:13 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Tulipslave said: i do agree with you, though, that it is highly egotistical to think that things would/could/should stay the same for our sole species.
it's a tough line to walk from living/loving this experience, knowing we are destroying damn near everything in our path (i work in restoration, and even we have to use gasoline/oils/manufactured equipment to do our jobs to work/get to work to help the forests/rivers/creeks/etc...), and knowing that we, homo sapiens sapiens, are a mere blip on the timeline of this planet, which ultimately will be mostly lifeless long before it is consumed by the sun as it dies
We might be a blip, and it might be 'egotistical' but the fact remains that all species opt to survive and we are not doing a very good job at taking care of the environment we want to keep around so things stay easy for us. Eventually, yes, we will get to the point where the planet is not habitable by humans in our current form. However that definitely doesn't mean we should be science deniers or idiots and speed the process along.
-------------------- Nothing says love like grannies prolapsed anus! quote]Urb said: I know... Its fucked up... Ill fix it minyana..[/quote]
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Phegnomeanon
The Phenomagnome



Registered: 08/04/18
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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: mndfreeze]
#25474335 - 09/20/18 03:53 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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To think we can stop the oceans from rising and all species from going extinct is being a science denier.
People walked into North America fallowing animals that are now extinct because of a bunch of glaciers that have been melting for a long time and will continue to melt. We need to realize this and start moving our civilization centers away from low lying coastal areas.
During the last interglacial period oceans levels were more than 100 feet higher.
The cycle of glaciation is a very real proven part of geology.
In fact there is some evidence that this cycle dates back into Precambrian times with a couple particularly extreme events when the entire surface of the planet was iced over.
Edited by Phegnomeanon (09/20/18 04:34 AM)
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mndfreeze 
Shroomery Secret Service




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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: Phegnomeanon]
#25474395 - 09/20/18 04:58 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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No. To think we can't stop our own measurable increases that are speeding it up is not science denying. No one is claiming that man reversing our own impact on the environment is going to stop it forever. That would be dumb. The issue is speeding it up. We have a definite and measurable impact on the planet on a large enough scale that we are at risk of exterminating our species far earlier then would be if we took better care of our environment. What you are talking about is no the same thing as what everyone else in the world is talking about. Everyone isn't all "yay lets recycle and lower our carbon footprint to save our species for the next 1 billion years!"...
Science has very clearly made the distinction multiple times between the natural cycles of the earth, based on what we know and what we can project from modeling, vs the increased impact and speed with man involved in the last 200 years or so.
-------------------- Nothing says love like grannies prolapsed anus! quote]Urb said: I know... Its fucked up... Ill fix it minyana..[/quote]
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Phegnomeanon
The Phenomagnome



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Re: Melting permafrost threatens climate rescue plan [Re: mndfreeze] 1
#25474599 - 09/20/18 07:12 AM (5 years, 7 months ago) |
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I said in an earlier post that we are speeding things up. I didn’t deny that any in my statement anywhere all I’m saying is you can completly alieviate all human input and it doesn’t matter the ice will all melt, the oceans will rise, and species will go extinct.
We should start moving up hill.
Edit:
Even if we kill off life on this planet it would not effect it. It would still go around the sun and tectonic plates will still shift. Gravity will not be effected. The moon will still circle. Oceans will still rise and fall.
Global extinctions have happened several times with no effect to the planet. A couple million years latter full of life again.
We only make things worse for ourselves and other life around us.
Edited by Phegnomeanon (09/20/18 08:24 AM)
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