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Offlinekoods
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Welcome to the Trump recession * 2
    #25118343 - 04/06/18 02:40 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Trumps economic performance has been really quite lame, but things have fallen off the cliff in the past month.

The April jobs report released this morning was pathetic. Only 103,000 new jobs created, which doesn't even keep up with population growth.

Alumimum prices have fallen despite new tariffs which is an incredibly bad sign for economic growth, despite trump bragging about it this morning.

The stock market continues its two month long slide.

These are all very bad signs for the future economy. Unless things turn around, expect negative GDP growth in the second quarter


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I am a violent pusher of the neo-marxist SJW agenda to destroy society.


Edited by koods (04/06/18 02:43 PM)


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OfflineXUL
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: koods]
    #25118352 - 04/06/18 02:45 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Sources? I just like to be able to read it.


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Offlineqman
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: koods]
    #25118353 - 04/06/18 02:46 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

It's because there's really been no "recovery" in the first place, inflating asset prices with funny money and historically low interest rates isn't economic growth. At a certain point that game comes to an end.

The consumer is tapped out with record levels of debt, credit growth has been dying and all levels of government are overloaded with debt.


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: qman]
    #25118357 - 04/06/18 02:47 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Way premature to call this a recession, and inaccurate.

But the volatility in the market seems directly related to his economic tweets and blurts.

Give it time... for now, this qualifies as a correction, not a recession.


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Fiddlesticks.



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Offlinekoods
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: koods] * 1
    #25118364 - 04/06/18 02:51 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)



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I am a violent pusher of the neo-marxist SJW agenda to destroy society.


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: Rose] * 1
    #25118368 - 04/06/18 02:54 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Rose said:
Way premature to call this a recession, and inaccurate.

But the volatility in the market seems directly related to his economic tweets and blurts.

Give it time... for now, this qualifies as a correction, not a recession.





My list is in order of importance. Aluminum prices should have spiked after the tariffs. They fell. That can only be because of soft demand. Soft demand for commodities is a terrible economic indicator.

Jobs growth has been anemic under trump compared to obama but 103,000 is particularly poor


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Offlineqman
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: Rose]
    #25118371 - 04/06/18 02:54 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Rose said:
Way premature to call this a recession, and inaccurate.

But the volatility in the market seems directly related to his economic tweets and blurts.

Give it time... for now, this qualifies as a correction, not a recession.




That's true, but dying credit growth and a flat yield curve are all signs things are not good.

It's not Trump's fault, he's just potentially at the wrong place at the wrong time.


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: koods] * 1
    #25118375 - 04/06/18 02:57 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

My reasoning is based on what does and doesn’t qualify as a recession. It is only premature to call it a recession because we aren’t in a recession... yet. I say this as an old fart who has survived a few, and seen many prematurely calling “Recession” after a bad week in the stock market.

This still qualifies as an adjustment or correction. No bubble has burst yet.

That said, volatility in the stock market like this is an ominous sign.


--------------------
Fiddlesticks.



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Offlinekoods
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: Rose]
    #25118387 - 04/06/18 03:05 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

What is frightening is trump is bragging about the aluminum prices. He doesn't understand economics AT ALL

Once again, a republican president will trash the economy and a democrat will be elected to fix it. Mark my words.


--------------------
I am a violent pusher of the neo-marxist SJW agenda to destroy society.


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: koods]
    #25118401 - 04/06/18 03:09 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

It seems that way... but that isn’t all there is to it.

With aluminum, you are seeing an adjustment. Shareholders often are reactionary immediately after an announcement, but it takes time for the market to get past the reactionary phase. Often prices bounce back after an initial panicked sell off.

Too soon to call, but I wouldn’t be surprised you get to say, “Told you so!” in a few months.


--------------------
Fiddlesticks.



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Offlinekoods
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: Rose] * 1
    #25118405 - 04/06/18 03:12 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Shareholders? What are you talking about?


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: koods]
    #25118455 - 04/06/18 03:38 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

You mentioned the stock market and aluminum prices in your OP. Shareholders in this case, would be folks who own stock in aluminum, or other tariffed items.

Am I going too fast for you?


--------------------
Fiddlesticks.



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Offlinekoods
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: Rose] * 1
    #25118469 - 04/06/18 03:44 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

People own stock in aluminum companies. There are no shareholders of a commodity.


--------------------
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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: koods]
    #25118482 - 04/06/18 03:50 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

You mentioned the stock market in your OP, and it is tanking today as I type.

Some things should be self-evident, considering you brought it up...

And commodity pricing IS part of the stock exchange... see gold and oil for two obvious examples.

That said, “Investors” would have been a better blanket term.


--------------------
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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: qman] * 1
    #25118505 - 04/06/18 04:03 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

qman said:
Quote:

Rose said:
Way premature to call this a recession, and inaccurate.

But the volatility in the market seems directly related to his economic tweets and blurts.

Give it time... for now, this qualifies as a correction, not a recession.




That's true, but dying credit growth and a flat yield curve are all signs things are not good.

It's not Trump's fault, he's just potentially at the wrong place at the wrong time.




Nah man. Trump has been prez for over a year, now the economy is on him. He doesn't get to sit on Obama's coattails that long. Especially if he spends the first year of his presidency sitting on Obama's coattails and bragging about it like it's all him.


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OfflinePatlal
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: koods]
    #25118586 - 04/06/18 04:40 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Trumps economic performance has been really quite lame, but things have fallen off the cliff in the past month.

The April jobs report released this morning was pathetic. Only 103,000 new jobs created, which doesn't even keep up with population growth.

Alumimum prices have fallen despite new tariffs which is an incredibly bad sign for economic growth, despite trump bragging about it this morning.

The stock market continues its two month long slide.

These are all very bad signs for the future economy. Unless things turn around, expect negative GDP growth in the second quarter




3rd quarter 2017: 3.2 percent
4th quarter 2017: 2.9 percent

Current forecast for 1st quarter 2018:  2%

A recession is negative growth for two consecutive quarters. Which means that even if 2nd quarter growth is negative, it's still not a recession.

Also, to add to this; economists are experts at explaining why their predictions didn't happen. Especially if they are vehemently against an administration. By instilling fear, they create recessions because idiots listen to them and sell their stocks.


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OfflinePatlal
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: koods] * 1
    #25118594 - 04/06/18 04:44 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

koods said:
What is frightening is trump is bragging about the aluminum prices. He doesn't understand economics AT ALL

Once again, a republican president will trash the economy and a democrat will be elected to fix it. Mark my words.




He has a bachelor's in economics from an Ivy League school.

What do you have?

See, economics is true when you apply it to past data. When you try using it to foresee the future, you're shooting yourself in foot.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: Patlal]
    #25118600 - 04/06/18 04:46 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Well, economists may lie, but fundamental economic metrics usually don't. And *all* the fundamentals are aiming pretty directly downhill.

Then again, the entire concept of "economic metrics" is a relatively new science, the entire field didn't exist until 1939ish. Not like we have much evidence to work with.


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: Patlal] * 1
    #25118928 - 04/06/18 06:42 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Patlal said:
Quote:

koods said:
What is frightening is trump is bragging about the aluminum prices. He doesn't understand economics AT ALL

Once again, a republican president will trash the economy and a democrat will be elected to fix it. Mark my words.




He has a bachelor's in economics from an Ivy League school.

What do you have?

See, economics is true when you apply it to past data. When you try using it to foresee the future, you're shooting yourself in foot.




A bachelors degree. That's it? Jesus

How long has it been since we've had a less educated president?  60 or 70 years?

I wonder what his grades were? We know he's lying about Being at the top of his class. His name doesn't appear anywhere in the list of honored students in his graduating class.


--------------------
I am a violent pusher of the neo-marxist SJW agenda to destroy society.


Edited by koods (04/06/18 06:51 PM)


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Welcome to the Trump recession [Re: koods]
    #25119010 - 04/06/18 07:07 PM (3 years, 1 month ago)

By the way, what happened to TrumpSlump? I think it sounds better.


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