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OfflineAll We Perceive
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Re: Stock Update for February 5, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25024908 - 02/26/18 08:46 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Nice grab on the AAPL calls :thumbsup:  Regrettably, I had no cash to deploy during the swoon other than some CDEV.  Building a nice position in energy.  Looking to grab some TUSK next.  Sold some Marathon Gold at 92 cents and rebought at 78 cents for the leg up.  PEA is due out in a couple of months.  If things line up, it's gonna pop nicely.   


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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak

Edited by All We Perceive (02/26/18 08:47 PM)

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 5, 2018 [Re: All We Perceive]
    #25025802 - 02/27/18 08:52 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Made some good scratch on SPY puts last week, only gave back a very small clip before getting out on Friday.  Reloaded on March $278 SPY puts this morning to fade the relief rally, now that we are back up toward the top of the range.  Protective stop in place above today's high, which will be moved down incrementally as the trade works (will close at least 50% of trade by the end of the day), lookin' at ~$273 on SPY as an initial downside target.

Edit: Moved pretty quickly down to $275.50.  Scalped a quick 25% return on those calls and calling it a day.  I do still have a slight negative bias here, especially if/when the 10 year treasury yield eclipses 3%, but to elaborate why I closed the trade... I'm always watching the E's (S&P 500 Futures E-Mini contract), and found the 200 period SMA on my 4 hour chart to be somewhat relevant to the index's support and resistance levels during the big selloff and retracement over the past month.  It so happened that I noticed buyers stepping in right at that level, and given that I had pressed my position to a pretty big size, I decided the easy money had been made and it wouldn't be worth pressing for more.  You always have to evaluate the two sides of risk, the risk of making more money versus the risk of losing it, and the relative probabilities for either side.

Edit 2: Looks like we have a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern on the S&P500 daily chart at the close here.  True confession, I jumped back in another (smaller) tranche of SPY Puts about 90 minutes before the close as it looked like we were heading lower.  I am out of that position now however, as implied volatility is still very high and I don't want to hold a bunch of leverage overnight.  But I will be watching in the morning and ready to trade nimbly should an attractive opportunity present itself.  My ideal would be to see a gap higher open to around $277 in the SPY with immediate selling pressure, but things don't typically work out exactly as I'd like so we'll just have to wait and see what the market may offer up.


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Edited by geokills (02/27/18 02:14 PM)

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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 5, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25031482 - 03/01/18 11:15 AM (6 years, 28 days ago)

Flipped another tranche of SPY Puts and UVXY common yesterday.  Sat out the carnage this morning as it's the third day of the drawdown and I didn't want to get greedy on the short side since a big move has already been made.  However, now that we're down over 1% on the day and the VIX is gettin' a bit high, I'm going to take a stab at near term normalization on volatility by picking up Mach 16th $20 puts on the UVXY @ $3.25.  I will double the position if I can buy another tranche in the $2's before the week is out.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for February 5, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25033005 - 03/02/18 08:31 AM (6 years, 28 days ago)

Things are getting a bit sporty on the heels of Trump's alleged trade war in the making.. which has in turn made for a fun market for nimble traders.  I have tripled my original March 16th UVXY $20 Put position @ $2.50 per contract.  Volatility is an interesting trade, as it can move to extremes but historically always normalizes.  Because of the leveraged structure of UVXY and its daily rebalancing, it has an inherent loss of value built into the product.  Thus, I am comfortable going in rather big with Puts, as I have two full weeks for volatility to normalize, which is almost always enough time.

Why not just short the underlying UVXY then, so I can wait indefinitely for the inevitable normalization?  I am using put options instead, as a measure of risk management, because I am not naive enough to believe that this is a sure thing.  If the market crashes and we go down 20% into recession territory (which, while an outlier event is certainly possible given the lofty valuations, the rising interest rate landscape and our moron in chief at the White House), it would become more probable that volatility would spike even higher and fail to normalize as quickly.  In this case, being short the UVXY itself could result in a margin call as the losses could be potentially unlimited and my broker will eventually cut me off to protect their own ass, which would in turn prevent me from being able to ride out the trade all the way through to normalization.  This is why I am playing via a time limited option.  The time limit itself imposes a risk that volatility will not normalize within two weeks, which could bust my trade, but I also protect myself from a margin call while defining my maximum loss by not being short the underlying.

Fingers crossed. :biggrin:

Edit:  I closed half of this position at the end of the session today out of prudence (up 38%).  While I think there is still more money to be made on the trade, the weekend is always a bit of a wildcard, and if the geopolitical powers that be say or do something retarded (which in this day and age is never a low probability :crazy2:), we could see volatility creep back in with a weak open on Monday.  Should this happen, I will be watching for a crescendo in the action to reload on my UVXY puts.  In the meanwhile, I still have a fairly decent sized position on the table and I am comfortable with that.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Stock Update for March 5, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25040521 - 03/05/18 01:48 PM (6 years, 24 days ago)

Volatility continues to decline, with my March $20 UVXY puts now up 70%, I am taking another tranche off the table @ $4.20 :tongue2::spliff:.  This will leave 1/3 of my original position remaining, as I suspect UVXY could easily hit $15 before March expiration, which would give the puts an intrinsic value of $5; another 20% above where I sold today's lot.

Taking in the bigger picture, I wouldn't be quick to get sucked in to the long side of this market.  It could very well be that we resume our incessant march higher, but it seems more likely that we are bound to zigzag around for a while in a narrowing range before any meaningful trend makes itself apparent, and on that note, my bias is still edged toward the downside, but I'm not religious about that, and will trade opportunistically, predominantly on a short term basis over the meanwhile.


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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25040649 - 03/05/18 02:50 PM (6 years, 24 days ago)

I think volume is drying up for the advances. I am willing to bet we are stuck in a range for a while, also.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 5, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25048032 - 03/08/18 07:54 AM (6 years, 22 days ago)

Closed the last tranche of my UVXY Puts this morning to lock in a 75% gain.  Since they expire next week and have been wildly profitable, I don't see much sense in holding them any longer as the risk/reward proposition is no longer attractive.  In other words, while I suspect UVXY can still fall to $15 or below by next Friday, I also see a possibility of the SPY falling back down toward the bottom of its range, which would cause UVXY to spike and wouldn't allow much time for the puts to regain their value before expiration.  Outside of my long term retirement accounts (which are split between an aggregate US index and a technology specific index), I really don't have any meaningful positions on the board, as I have no real confidence in the market short term.  If anything, I will look for signs of weakness to pick up some SPY puts, and attempt to repeat this UVXY Put trade on any subsequent spike in volatility.

Edit: Went in small on some SPY April 20 $275 puts.  Will gently build position into strength since these have over a month until expiry.


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Edited by geokills (03/08/18 08:10 AM)

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Stock Update for March 9, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25051609 - 03/09/18 10:26 AM (6 years, 20 days ago)

A goldilocks jobs report has indicated strength in the job market with depressed wage inflation.  This is viewed favorably as it indicates an increase in economic productivity without pressuring the federal reserve to raise rates aggressively since the Fed is particularly sensitive to inflation and wages are seen to be increasing less than expected (i.e. hardly at all).  This is unfortunate for my recent pivot, as those UVXY puts I closed out yesterday are up handsomely while the SPY Puts I purchased are down significantly.

This is a difficult spot, and why it often pays to trade less when the market is in the recovery phase after a big dislocation as we saw throughout February.  The strength so far today has been relentless, and yet we are still below all time highs, and just approaching the short term recovery's peak from late February, which could be seen as resistance (declining volume on the upswing lending credence to a potential stallout at these levels).  But if this is indeed formidable resistance, do we sell off?  Or simply continue to chop around sideways for weeks or even months?

My gut tells me not to expect a lot of imminent downside here, but also to take some advantage of finding myself near the top of a short term trading range.  As such, I have genly increased my position in my SPY puts expiring in April.  With 42 days left to go, I suspect we will be seeing some backing and filling before then.  My expectation is that this backing and filling will likely be bought at around $270 on the SPY as we continue to chop around.  Mostly cash here, with a downside bias.


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Re: Stock Update for March 9, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25053345 - 03/09/18 10:14 PM (6 years, 20 days ago)

After a long ass hiatus from the shroomery, I decided to hop on and see what was being said about the stock market here. I've been browsing reddit a lot (easier to do while on the phone with 10 minutes to spare), but the ideas on there are garbage/trolling/memes for the most part.

Geokills, I'm pumped to see you still posting your trades on here. How have you been doing the past ~4 years?

More relevant to this thread, my thoughts are that the market freaks out about Trump too much when basically everything seems to work out fine in the end (its weird and no idea if it will continue). So for now, I bet the markets stay positive for the next week or two. Towards the end of March, we will reach the debt ceiling and I bet we have another mini-correction going into that crisis, but I think things will work out in the week after the debt limit is reached and we will probably then be at new all time highs.

I've had a pretty good week with earnings. AMRC, VTNR, BCRH, BKCC, and STB all doing well for me. I bought a put on SNAP this week and while I'm positive right now, this position is definitely making me nervous. Most of my positions are long term holds and the majority of my trading account is sitting in cash for the moment after just getting out of AMRC and MU a month ago (panic sold at the low :facepalm: , but bought in at ~$15)

Just kinda rambling i guess, feels good to write down my thoughts tho, maybe I'll start posting more often.

Cheers :sun:


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 9, 2018 [Re: Bambi]
    #25058043 - 03/12/18 10:20 AM (6 years, 18 days ago)

Hey Bambi,

Good to see you around again.  I took a pretty long break from the market over the past year or thereabouts, focusing considerably more of my time on the crypto markets, which turned out to be a smart move as the gains I've achieved there over the past year have eclipsed the gains I've achieved throughout my entire tenure (nearly two decades) of investing in the stock market.  My only regret is that I put in such a small amount to begin with, had I been slightly more aggressive, well... let's just say I'd probably be posting this remark from a sandy beach on some tropical island instead of my home office :wink:.

I am enjoying the pickup in volatility over here in stock land though, and look forward to more opportunistic trading as the year carries on, particularly now that the crypto space has cooled off in general and appears to be set for highly volatile sideways chop for the foreseeable future.  I can enjoy the volatility in the stock market because there is still ample liquidity to trade around.  In crypto land, the volatility can be deadly as spreads are wide and any given exchange just doesn't put up the volume to move trades in any appreciable size without considerable price slippage.

Anywho, hope you'll stick around and post more ideas.  MU has been very impressive!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Stock Update for March 9, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25060399 - 03/13/18 11:57 AM (6 years, 16 days ago)

Leaning heavy on the short side now with SPY puts.  High confidence in downside to $275 on SPY this week, with medium confidence in a move down to $270-$272.  Low confidence, but possible, move all the way to the 200 day at ~$260.  Stop can be kept tight (half @ $278.60, full @ high of day ~$280).  If we do fall quickly to ~$270 on SPY, UVXY is likely to spike pretty good at which point I will be legging into UVXY puts as I close the SPY puts for a profit.


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Re: Stock Update for March 9, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25076266 - 03/19/18 07:30 PM (6 years, 10 days ago)

Glad to hear that you did well in cryptos. I got burned a few years ago (~2013?)  investing in the marijuana bubble so I stayed away from cryptos, but I know a lot of people who did well.

I closed out my SNAP put for a ~50% gain but lost 1/3 of that profit on an SPX call that I fucked up. I opened up a short position last week as AMRC goes way overbought with an RSI > 90, but somehow it won't go down, even when everything else was negative today. I really can't make heads or tails of the overall market, but I am guessing that this will be a choppy and downward week.

The next trade I'm thinking about is a 15th June $75 call on TGT. The chart has held up really well amid high volatility and I like that Target is both remodeling their stores and has exposure to online sales. Still not 100%, but there is a good chance I open this position sometime this week.

Nice on those SPY puts, I bet we see even lower (~267) before the end of the week.


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Re: Stock Update for March 9, 2018 [Re: Bambi]
    #25082041 - 03/22/18 10:01 AM (6 years, 8 days ago)

Market is spilling out if its wedge and the S&P's 200 day moving average looks to be coming into play at around $260.  There may be some more juice on the short side, but I am no longer holding any SPY puts, as the past two weeks have been rife with selling and the risk/reward proposition to the down side is not as attractive near term.  Longer term, maybe so, but I will wait for some strength that appears to be running into resistance before repositioning short.  Outside of retirement accounts, I am 100% cash at the moment.

The UVXY is starting to look juicy again, and I have placed some bids for April $18-$20 put options, such that if we do get a continued selloff into the weekend, I will be short volatility.  As is the case with this sort of trade, I will be buying the puts incrementally, as volatility can spike very high on a deep selloff, and I always want to have powder dry to make sure I can buy higher strikes with relatively long maturations (typically 2-4 weeks out).  As April puts are still an entire month out, that should be enough time to allow any big spikes in the UVXY to normalize, which is the exact same trade I put on late last month that turned out to be a huge winner.  Hopefully I can rinse and repeat!


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Re: Stock Update for March 9, 2018 [Re: geokills]
    #25082553 - 03/22/18 01:43 PM (6 years, 7 days ago)

Here's a rather long interview, but I believe it's spot on. We have dying credit growth and higher short term bond yields while the long bond refuses to break higher. The Fed is going to get an inverted yield curve and an economic recession.

The result is going to be exploding Federal deficits but lower bond yields. The end result will NOT be good for the stock market.

Here's an internet ETF filled with the biggest junk in the market, it's done outstanding on the upside, it will be the one to bet against on the downside. (PNQI)


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Re: Stock Update for March 9, 2018 [Re: qman]
    #25088080 - 03/24/18 08:12 PM (6 years, 5 days ago)

I predict that next week will be a bloodbath.  Short UVXY will be a good trade.  We'll see....


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25088430 - 03/24/18 10:44 PM (6 years, 5 days ago)

What would you folks suggest for someone who does not want to play options.
I just want to buy a stock.

Yes, I am already invested in three primary mutual/index funds for the bulk of IRA, but want to also invest in some other companies more heavily.

I currently own or will own AMZN (sold at 1600 - waiting to buy back), Buckle, VDE, and PETX.

I have a somewhat high risk tolerance with this money. Thanks!

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: AroundtheSon]
    #25089915 - 03/25/18 03:49 PM (6 years, 4 days ago)

If you just want to have more market exposure, I would go after the SPY; low cost, broad based diversified ETF that tracks the S&P 500.  As we all know, it is very difficult to "beat the market" (i.e. the S&P 500), as such the SPY is an excellent choice for passive investing.  If you still like to do some individual stock picking, consider a substitution strategy.  That is, keep your baseline exposure in SPY, and reallocate slices of your SPY position into whatever individual names you want to overweight.  When you sell out of those individual names, allocate those proceeds back into the SPY so you retain broad market exposure.

Now for what it's worth, aside from quick scalps and swing trades, I really wouldn't would want to be committing much money to the market just yet.  We are still near multi-year highs and have gotten used to a scenario where all dips have generally been shallow and surely bought.  The action since February however, would seem to indicate that this trend has been broken.  I could be wrong, of course, but with interest rates on the rise and our sincerely bonkers President at the helm, I believe you will have an opportunity to buy into the market at considerably lower prices over the coming months.  That being said, I am considering going long some FIVE, a teen retailer that has shown a consistently high growth rate and has been consolidating just above its 50 day moving average.  A hard market to go long, but this looks like a volatility squeeze waiting to breakout.  Could consider a starter position here, with the big buy signal at or above $72.

As for qman's mention of PQNI, I might actually consider putting that on your shopping list for when we do see a big selloff.  Although I can see why qman asserts that it should be bet against on the downside, as most of its holdings carry generally high valuations, I also believe that in most cases those high valuations are warranted, as the market is a forward pricing mechanism and the technology sector offers the highest growth rates, in many cases warranting what may appear to be a high present day valuation, since their high earnings potential allows them to grow into those valuations rather quickly.  Granted that in a broad based market selloff PNQI will undoubtedly suffer, but I suspect that it will be one of the quicker ones to recover.  For this reason, I wouldn't personally choose PNQI as my primary shorting vehicle, instead opting to short via SPY puts and/or puts on the small & mid-cap ETFs for extra juice (IWM & MDY respectively), in conjunction with both riding and fading volatility via UVXY call and put options, respectively.

On that note, I did get some order fills on Friday.  Snagged an initial tranche of UVXY April $20 puts, filled near the heavy selling at Friday's close and with enough room to easily quadruple the position, which is what I intend to do incrementally, should we see additional heavy selling that further spikes UVXY into next week.  I also bought April $22 calls on the GDX, which looks to be breaking out of a bit of a volatility squeeze from the bottom of its channel (some formidable resistance above $25).  I am considering doubling down with longer dated calls if the opportunity presents itself, but am not in a hurry to do so, as I generally haven't done very well attempting to trade anything gold related in the past.

Buckle up, it should be an interesting week!  Remember to be patient, this market will be choppy.  If you can't justify your trade as a high probability scenario from a risk/reward perspective (and adhere to your stop losses!), wait for a better opportunity.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25091526 - 03/26/18 09:27 AM (6 years, 4 days ago)

I bailed out of the GDX trade this morning for the slimmest profit.  After some introspection, I realized that I just wasn't comfortable with it, and don't want to force a trade I'm not comfortable with.  I simply haven't had much success trading gold, so I'll just sit on the physical coins I have and try to stop lettin' this shiny object distract my attention from the types of trades I am better at dealing with.

The only other meaningful thing I did this morning was to short a handful of NVDA on the gap open, via May $250 puts at $21.90.  This one has been trading sideways for a few months near its all time highs and sliced through its 50 day moving average on Friday in a big way.  The gap open brought it right back into congestion/resistance at its 50 day moving average (where its 20 day is beginning to turn down), and I think volatility will continue to expand to the downside on this one, potentially visiting its 200 day moving average at around $200.  Although if the trade works, I' will likely be scaling out of the bulk of the position long before that level is hit.

I was watching FB this morning as well as it sliced through Friday's lows, but was hesitant to go short at the open because it had already fallen by several dollars by the time my attention was drawn to it.  That was my mistake.  Its weakness relative to the market's early morning strength was a solid tell that there was likely to be a lot of supply continuing to push the issue lower.  It since fell another $7 since I started watching it, as I sat on my hands.  I took the NVDA short trade instead, and although it is working, it hasn't been nearly as profitable as a FB short would have been.

Too bad, so sad. :shrug:

Edit: Got kicked out of the NVDA short as it eclipsed its morning highs.  Lettin' my single tranche of UVXY puts make up for the blow, stepping away from the market again here.


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Edited by geokills (03/26/18 01:07 PM)

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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25094233 - 03/27/18 10:53 AM (6 years, 3 days ago)

Uff, getting whipped around on some trades this week, nothing catastrophic but I'm spinning my wheels for a few small losses so far... hence why it is a good idea to trade less when market volatility picks up.

That NVDA move yesterday looks to have been a pretty big fake out, with the stock gapping higher and selling off in a big way today (currently printing a major bearish engulfing candle).  I don't feel good about buying puts right here, as the stock has already fallen 4%+ on the day.  Since options premiums are rather high however, I am going to take a more conservative approach by initiating a bear call (credit) spread.

While I generally believe that NVDA is likely to stay below its 50 day moving average at this point and could possibly fall considerably, the safer assumption is simply that it will be unlikely to print new highs any time soon.  The all time high peaked at $254.50, however $250 is more or less the key resistance level, and where the stock failed this morning, currently trading at around $235.  As such, I am going to sell premium via a bear call spread as follows:

  • Selling NVDA April 06 $250 calls
  • Buying NVDA April 06 $260 calls


This in effect allows me to pocket the difference between the two call options, which is currently $1.40 per contract.  The idea here is that both of these calls are now pretty far "out of the money", meaning that they have no intrinsic value, only time value based on the fact that they may regain some intrinsic value by the time they expire on April 6th.  Because April 6th is only a week and a half away, the time value on these contracts should bleed out quickly, especially if NVDA continues to fall.

If the trade works as intended, I will be losing money on the $260 calls I purchased, but will be gaining a higher proportion of money on the $250 calls I sold.  The reason for buying the $260 calls are both safety related and margin requirement related.  If I sell only the $250 call, my potential loss is unlimited since NVDA could theoretically get bought out or whatever other fluke event that would cause its price to rocket to new highs before April 6th.  By buying the $260 calls, I limit my losses to the spread between $260-$250 ($10) minus the time value premium ($1.40 credit) I took in on the trade.

In summary, I am short the $250 call, long the $260 call, and have received a $1.40 net credit for each pair of contracts written.  If NVDA is at or below $250 on April 6th, I get to keep the $1.40/contract net credit, my maximum gain.  My maximum loss is $8.60 per contract.  Not a particularly attractive risk reward profile at first glance, but in light of the low probability that NVDA is going to breach $250 over the next week and a half, this actually becomes a fairly conservative trade.  Particularly so, when one considers that it can be exited prematurely if NVDA does look like it is threatening to break to new highs, and the exit won't be as painful, because those $260 calls will be increasing in value (albeit at a slower rate) than the losses incurred by the $250 calls I shorted.

In volatile markets, spreads can be a good strategy to generate some income when everything is chopping around in wide ranges and you don't feel confident in any directional trade, but you still have confidence in a particular support or resistance level holding amidst the volatility.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #25099634 - 03/29/18 01:48 PM (6 years, 21 hours ago)

Nice little throwback rally on NVDA, but it's slamming right into supply from the breakdown level.  The original bear call credit spread I put on as indicated in the above post has bled out over 70% of its value already.  With the 6% snap back in NVDA today, the stock is resting right at its 8 period exponential moving average (a common average used by active traders to spot short term support and resistance on trending issues), as well as closing in on the underside of its 50 day moving average.  I am confident that the 50 day is going to act as resistance, presently at ~$239 with the stock trading just under $235.  As such, I am going to write another bear call credit spread, also expiring next Friday, April 6th, but will lower the strikes to gain more premium and use a slightly tighter spread to further mitigate risk just in case this thing does freakishly blast through its 50 day and off to new highs next week.

  • Sold NVDA April 6 $245 calls
  • Bought NVDA April 6 $252.50 calls

    Net credit: $1.20/contract


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