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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Enlil]
    #25107596 - 04/01/18 11:39 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

These people, with their Russian backgrounds, combined with the use of a "Russian" nerve agent (as I said, even Iran developed this), might make it look like a Russain attack.


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25107608 - 04/01/18 11:51 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Because it is a Russian attack


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: koods] * 1
    #25107609 - 04/01/18 11:52 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

It could be.  Or it might not be.  We're still waiting for the real evidence.


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Enlil] * 1
    #25107873 - 04/02/18 05:40 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
Quote:

Tipote said:
As far as i've seen, there is no evidence that Russia is involved.



Only because you haven't looked.  The evidence so far is that the victim was a Russian traitor, and that he was attacked by a very rare nerve agent developed by Russia.  That's motive, means, and opportunity right there.




Thats not evidence. You can post some evidence if you have it. If he was a double agent then there are AT LEAST two states who have the motive to kill him.

The chemical was not "very rare" it was very likely to be available at a research facility (Porton Down) in the same city. The chemical was Soviet era and not very rare. The antidote came from the same facility, its not a stretch of the imagination to think they might have had it too.

Quote:

Central to this is the fact that Novichoks are a broad class of nerve agent, rather than specific chemical compounds. This makes it distinct from substances like Sarin or VX, which can be precisely categorised and labelled.



Quote:

Although Russia developed them originally, it’s likely that several countries have also made small samples of Novichok – or at least know how to.

But because they have avoided being specifically classified by the Chemical Weapons Convention, any countries that have produced them may be able to avoid declaring it.

“I can’t believe that Russia has the sole technology to manufacture Novichoks,” says Jerry Smith. “If you want to make sure you’re protected against an agent which has been spoken about – and, in fact, even their chemical structures are on the internet – one would imagine that’s probably a duty of care.”

Does the UK’s case against Russia stack up?





Quote:

Enlil said:
Other evidence that wouldn't necessarily be admissible is the fact that Russia has a tendency to use exotic poisons and substances to kill and wait years to exact such revenge.





So do other states. Israel got caught red handed doing this to the leader of Hamas in Jordan. Is that evidence that Israeli did it?


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Tipote]
    #25107997 - 04/02/18 07:50 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Tipote said:

Thats not evidence. You can post some evidence if you have it. If he was a double agent then there are AT LEAST two states who have the motive to kill him.



Of course, it's evidence.  Your argument about "at least two states" having a motive is absurd.  One state charged, tried and convicted him.  The other fought to have him turned over in a spy swap. 

You can bury your head in the sand if you want, but the minimal evidence that exists points to Russia.


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Enlil]
    #25108082 - 04/02/18 09:14 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

The antidote came from the same facility, its not a stretch of the imagination to think they might have had it to




The antidote to organophosphate poisoning is atropine, which is a standard medicine that would be carried by any paramedic and available in every emergency room.


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Tipote]
    #25108487 - 04/02/18 12:28 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Tipote said:
Quote:

Enlil said:
Quote:

Tipote said:
As far as i've seen, there is no evidence that Russia is involved.



Only because you haven't looked.  The evidence so far is that the victim was a Russian traitor, and that he was attacked by a very rare nerve agent developed by Russia.  That's motive, means, and opportunity right there.




Thats not evidence. You can post some evidence if you have it. If he was a double agent then there are AT LEAST two states who have the motive to kill him.

The chemical was not "very rare" it was very likely to be available at a research facility (Porton Down) in the same city. The chemical was Soviet era and not very rare. The antidote came from the same facility, its not a stretch of the imagination to think they might have had it too.

Quote:

Central to this is the fact that Novichoks are a broad class of nerve agent, rather than specific chemical compounds. This makes it distinct from substances like Sarin or VX, which can be precisely categorised and labelled.



Quote:

Although Russia developed them originally, it’s likely that several countries have also made small samples of Novichok – or at least know how to.

But because they have avoided being specifically classified by the Chemical Weapons Convention, any countries that have produced them may be able to avoid declaring it.

“I can’t believe that Russia has the sole technology to manufacture Novichoks,” says Jerry Smith. “If you want to make sure you’re protected against an agent which has been spoken about – and, in fact, even their chemical structures are on the internet – one would imagine that’s probably a duty of care.”

Does the UK’s case against Russia stack up?





Quote:

Enlil said:
Other evidence that wouldn't necessarily be admissible is the fact that Russia has a tendency to use exotic poisons and substances to kill and wait years to exact such revenge.





So do other states. Israel got caught red handed doing this to the leader of Hamas in Jordan. Is that evidence that Israeli did it?



Well said Tip.  :thumbup:

I find it ironic that even though a motive for Britain has been provided, Enlil digs his head in the sand while accusing others of doing the same.

Enlil, no one is saying Russia didn't do it.  We are saying we don't know who did it, as the "evidence" (as you like to use the term) points to at least three countries.

I also find it very interesting that Britain pressured Ecuador to cut off Julian Assange's internet access and is now limiting his visitor access since he raised the same questions Tip, I, and others have raised about the Skripol poisoning, and also offered information to the UK about the Cambridge Analytica scandal.  And I find it ironic that Enlil, who bashes Tip for not supporting free speech enough, hasn't expressed any outrage over Britain's censorship of Julian Assange - maybe because Enlil would prefer we NOT discover the truth on this???  :shrug:


--------------------
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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25108574 - 04/02/18 01:10 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Again, nobody is saying that we know Russia did it.  I'm simply saying the same thing I've been saying from the beginning. There is evidence, and that evidence points to Russia. There is very minimal evidence at this point, admittedly.

There's no evidence that Britain or the USA had a motive to kill these people.

Britain has no freedom of speech.  It's a monarchy. Besides,  even Assange said it was reasonable to consider Russia the prime suspect.


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Enlil]
    #25108702 - 04/02/18 02:08 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
There's no evidence that Britain or the USA had a motive to kill these people.



I suspect this is a semantics argument rather than a logical one, but by your definition, did the US have a motive to fake Iraq WMD evidence?  And if so, how is that different than the motives I suggested above?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Enlil]
    #25108712 - 04/02/18 02:14 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
...

There's no evidence that Britain or the USA had a motive to kill these people.
...




But Russia says that Britain did it to distract from Brexit
Quote:

"There are other explanations besides those put forward by our Western colleagues who declare that it can only be the Russians who are responsible," he said. "There are other explanations; experts say that it could be highly advantageous to the British security services as well, who are well known for their capacity to act with a licence to kill.

"It could also be advantageous to the British government, who clearly find themselves in a difficult situation, having failed to fulfil their promises to voters over Brexit."



http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-uk-skripal-lavrov-brexit-1.4602003

:seemslegit:

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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25108715 - 04/02/18 02:16 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

I think you have conflated the concepts of hypothesis and evidence.  I understand you have a hypothesis about motive,  but you haven't presented evidence of motive.  The evidence of Russian motive is the fact that the victims are a Russian traitor and his daughter.

What evidence of motive do you have?


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Enlil]
    #25109226 - 04/02/18 06:08 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

I explained why I feel your motive is weak, and I provided a hypothesis for a motive the US might have ("Russia is also nearing completion of their Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe, and the US wants the project cancelled so that the EU relies more on US gas.")  I even bet you my signature that's exactly what the US would do.

You wisely didn't take my bet, because you knew I was right, and 39 senators quickly came forward to oppose the Nord Stream pipeline.

So my hypothesis proved to be correct, and you not taking my bet proves you knew my hypothesis was correct.

Ultimately, I think you're trying win a semantics argument here rather than a logical one.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25109287 - 04/02/18 06:42 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

I know you have a hypothesis. Where's the evidence to support that hypothesis?


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Enlil]
    #25109306 - 04/02/18 06:51 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

You always lose me when you try to make it a semantics argument instead of a logical argument.

Reread my last post and help me understand how that's not evidence to support my hypothesis.  :shrug:


--------------------
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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25109319 - 04/02/18 06:57 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

It's not a semantics argument.  You have a hypothesis of motive.  You have to provide evidence that supports that hypothesis, though.  I don't see any of that in the previous post.  Let me help you with this.

Hypothesis:  The U.S. has a motive to kill these two people because it serves their desire to make Russia look bad.

If that's not a fair representation of your hypothesis, please let me know.

So, what evidence do you have that:

1. The U.S. has a desire to make Russia look bad;
2. Killing these two people in particular would have a tendency to make Russia look bad.


Does that make it more straightforward?


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Enlil]
    #25109582 - 04/02/18 08:46 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
I think you have conflated the concepts of hypothesis and evidence.  I understand you have a hypothesis about motive,  but you haven't presented evidence of motive.  The evidence of Russian motive is the fact that the victims are a Russian traitor and his daughter.

What evidence of motive do you have?




Further motive is fomenting Russian nationalism right before the election to boost voter participation.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Enlil]
    #25109893 - 04/02/18 11:52 PM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Enlil said:
It's not a semantics argument.  You have a hypothesis of motive.  You have to provide evidence that supports that hypothesis, though.  I don't see any of that in the previous post.  Let me help you with this.

Hypothesis:  The U.S. has a motive to kill these two people because it serves their desire to make Russia look bad.

If that's not a fair representation of your hypothesis, please let me know.

So, what evidence do you have that:

1. The U.S. has a desire to make Russia look bad;
2. Killing these two people in particular would have a tendency to make Russia look bad.


Does that make it more straightforward?



Using the example I gave in the post above, it was more like:

Hypothesis:  The U.S. has a motive to kill these two people because it serves their desire to stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe.

So, what evidence do you have that:

1. The U.S. has a desire to stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe - The evidence is that 39 US senators came forward to oppose the Nord Stream pipeline
2. Killing these two people in particular would have a tendency to stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe - The evidence is that the senators did this right after the poisoning

Let's even look at your original example:

So, what evidence do you have that:

1. The U.S. has a desire to make Russia look bad - the US and Britain rallied the West to kick Russians out of their embassies and are going further by trying to kick Russia out of the UN Security Council
2. Killing these two people in particular would have a tendency to make Russia look bad - The evidence is that they did this immediately after the poisoning


Now let's look at YOUR evidence:

Motive - Russia has a reason to want him dead;
Evidence - You're speculating that Putin wanted him dead 14 years after his conviction in Russia, but you have no evidence of this

And as I've said before:

"Your motive makes no sense.  If you believe they kept him alive for a spy swap, then that's the last spy swap Russia will ever get (should they be proven to be the assassins).  The timing also makes no sense.  Why wait eight years after he was released from Russia to finally kill him?  Why do it weeks before Putin's election, and months before the world cup in Russia?"


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #25109962 - 04/03/18 12:28 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

So the US plan was to poison these guys, framing Russia, getting a minority of the senate to write a rhetorical letter that is supposed to convince Europe to stop a nearly completed pipeline. Sounds like a fat nothing burger.


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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: koods]
    #25109968 - 04/03/18 12:32 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Idk if you've noticed, but a lot of Russian spies have been dying recently. There are clearly internal problems within the Russian intelligence community. A message is a message.


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“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Re: Teresa May takes Russia to task over chemical weapon attack on British soil [Re: koods]
    #25109984 - 04/03/18 12:47 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

koods said:
So the US plan was to poison these guys, framing Russia, getting a minority of the senate to write a rhetorical letter that is supposed to convince Europe to stop a nearly completed pipeline. Sounds like a fat nothing burger.



Everything above happened, except we don't know who poisoned the Skripals.

Once again, I'm not the one claiming to know who did, so at this point, it is a nothing burger... for those who claim to know.


--------------------
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