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OfflineBrian Jones
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Trump's Tarrifs * 1
    #25034158 - 03/02/18 07:25 PM (3 years, 2 months ago)

What is your opinion of Trump's proposed recent sizable tarrifs on steel and aluminum?

    To me there are two issues here. First, in in spite of what Trump says there is no way the American Steel industry is coming back. I know less about aluminum. Second, Tarrif wars are considered a major cause of the Great Depression. The stock market dropped after Trump's announcement fearing a trade war.

    What do you think?


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Offlineqman
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Brian Jones] * 1
    #25034235 - 03/02/18 08:01 PM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Trump needs to do more tariffs, our trade deficit is too large.


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OfflineZyiadem
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Brian Jones]
    #25034240 - 03/02/18 08:02 PM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Well he already smashed the solar industry which employs more than coal and was making a big boom on the west coast, and was one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy, until he put a 30% tariff on that.

Seems to me like trump is going to bleed legitimate industry's dry, while ensuring less people rise to wealth. His attacks on small business are clear, taking most tax write offs away from small businesses.

These tactics are simply cut and burn, if this crashes the economy it's not like him or his friends are going to be here for the fallout.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Brian Jones]
    #25034705 - 03/02/18 11:02 PM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Why do you say "there is no way the American Steel industry is coming back"?

Given the current trade deficit, which we didn't have before the Great Depression, I believe it could benefit us.



If we started buying aluminum and steel domestically, and other countries didn't buy American aluminum and steel because of retaliatory tariffs, we'd have a net gain because we used to buy more than we sold, and the trade deficit would go down.


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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25034796 - 03/02/18 11:41 PM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Do we have the capacity for increased production? Seems unlikely that this will spur more american production, especially aluminum for which there are technological reasons why we don't produce very much - aluminum requires a ridiculous amount of electricity to process it from ore. Increasing production significantly would require increasing generation capacity and doing it cheaply. Foreign competitors have cheap electricity sources (the reason they are the big producers in the first place). That's not really an option in the US short of building new hydro plants in remote areas.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: qman] * 1
    #25034820 - 03/02/18 11:47 PM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

qman said:
Trump needs to do more tariffs, our trade deficit is too large.




America doesnt have the leverage it used to, other nations will retaliate and we'll either suffer and look like idiots, or go to war....and suffer and look like idiots.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: koods]
    #25034861 - 03/03/18 12:05 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Do we have the capacity for increased production? Seems unlikely that this will spur more american production, especially aluminum for which there are technological reasons why we don't produce very much - aluminum requires a ridiculous amount of electricity to process it from ore. Increasing production significantly would require increasing generation capacity and doing it cheaply. Foreign competitors have cheap electricity sources (the reason they are the big producers in the first place). That's not really an option in the US short of building new hydro plants in remote areas.



But it is an option if we impose tariffs to offset these disadvantages.  Here's a good article from a very respectable economic think tank:

Trade remedies for steel and aluminum are long overdue


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25034920 - 03/03/18 12:47 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Cars are gonna get more expensive. Energy will as well. Those big poles are steel.

Construction is gonna take a hit, that'll be close to Trump's pocket. Or, possibly, Trump's pocket will get larger as a result. The wall is gonna get more expensive, no doubt.

Also, there are a surprising amount of consumer goods that use aluminum. I was listening to a radio program that was saying beer prices are gonna have to go up almost 3 cents a can to cover the additional cost of the aluminum. Breweries won't eat it.

That hits close to home.

One or two factories in Pittsburgh might reopen though. At the cost of cancer in the greater Pitt area.


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OfflineThundermuscle75
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 3
    #25034932 - 03/03/18 12:54 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

koods said:
Do we have the capacity for increased production? Seems unlikely that this will spur more american production, especially aluminum for which there are technological reasons why we don't produce very much - aluminum requires a ridiculous amount of electricity to process it from ore. Increasing production significantly would require increasing generation capacity and doing it cheaply. Foreign competitors have cheap electricity sources (the reason they are the big producers in the first place). That's not really an option in the US short of building new hydro plants in remote areas.



But it is an option if we impose tariffs to offset these disadvantages.  Here's a good article from a very respectable economic think tank:

Trade remedies for steel and aluminum are long overdue




Interesting.

I wonder how this would affect the market for scrap metal?

We currently send most of our scrap to China to be recycled and sent back to us in the form of consumer products and bulk metals.

It looks like an inefficient system to me, probably excessive from an environmental impact standpoint as well.

Chinese metal manufacturers are also known for poor quality controll. Around here poor quality Chinese steel is famous for all the trouble it's caused with the Bay Bridge.
https://www.wired.com/2015/06/mystery-brand-new-bay-bridges-corroded-steel/

Definitely the kind of policy that will send ripples through the economy.


--------------------


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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #25035022 - 03/03/18 02:23 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Why do you say "there is no way the American Steel industry is coming back"?

Given the current trade deficit, which we didn't have before the Great Depression, I believe it could benefit us.



If we started buying aluminum and steel domestically, and other countries didn't buy American aluminum and steel because of retaliatory tariffs, we'd have a net gain because we used to buy more than we sold, and the trade deficit would go down.




This is why I (as a complete non-expert) on the situation) said there is no way American steel is coming back. Working in a steel mill is a very tough and frequently unpleasant job. There is no way Americans will do this job unless they are paid well. So there is a big labor cost disadvantage for the U.S.

    But I decided to do some research and here are some better informed views.

https://www.marketplace.org/2016/08/09/world/steels-decline-was-about-technology-not-trade-0
The title of this article summarizes the argument.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/03/23/opinions/american-steel-industry-gibson-schmitt/index.html
This interpretation is centered on trade.


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.


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OfflineThundermuscle75
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Brian Jones]
    #25035028 - 03/03/18 02:33 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

A friend of mine worked in one of the Mills that shut down in the '80s.

I'm sure nostalgia colored his memory, but he spoke fondly of it.

I assumed it was mostly unskilled labor. In actuality he learned a lot about metallurgy and metal work. He continued to do some custom wrought iron work decades later.


--------------------


"Rape ... Is a... can of apples" -Fiery


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InvisibleTantrika
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Brian Jones]
    #25035316 - 03/03/18 08:40 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
What is your opinion of Trump's proposed recent sizable tarrifs on steel and aluminum?
...




Waiting to see if it applies to Canada or not,
giving the benefit of the doubt right now

Quote:

Canada is seeking an exemption to new U.S. trade restrictions on aluminum and steel, and is vowing to retaliate if it's slapped with any new tariffs.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the proposal "absolutely unacceptable," echoing the phrase used by Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland yesterday.

A government official, speaking on background, said Canada believes any new tariffs should not apply to this country due to the highly integrated nature of the North American steel market, and because of the close co-operation between the two countries on defence issues.

A final decision from U.S. President Donald Trump is expected next week. Meanwhile, the Canadian government is discussing what its next steps will be if Washington doesn't order an exemption. For now, officials continue to make Canada's case at every possible level, the official said.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/steel-trade-tariffs-trump-1.4558967

Will judge Trudeau harder than Trump if trade keeps going downhill
even tho it was part of my position that Hillary would have been better for trade with Trump as 'better' for America

Trump already went after softwood,
then after milk when Trudeau took his daughter to a play on Broadway
but if Canada's leader ends up being childish in response to Trump, then will hold complaint


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Thundermuscle75]
    #25036321 - 03/03/18 05:43 PM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Thundermuscle75 said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

koods said:
Do we have the capacity for increased production? Seems unlikely that this will spur more american production, especially aluminum for which there are technological reasons why we don't produce very much - aluminum requires a ridiculous amount of electricity to process it from ore. Increasing production significantly would require increasing generation capacity and doing it cheaply. Foreign competitors have cheap electricity sources (the reason they are the big producers in the first place). That's not really an option in the US short of building new hydro plants in remote areas.



But it is an option if we impose tariffs to offset these disadvantages.  Here's a good article from a very respectable economic think tank:

Trade remedies for steel and aluminum are long overdue




Interesting.

I wonder how this would affect the market for scrap metal?

We currently send most of our scrap to China to be recycled and sent back to us in the form of consumer products and bulk metals.

It looks like an inefficient system to me, probably excessive from an environmental impact standpoint as well.

Chinese metal manufacturers are also known for poor quality controll. Around here poor quality Chinese steel is famous for all the trouble it's caused with the Bay Bridge.
https://www.wired.com/2015/06/mystery-brand-new-bay-bridges-corroded-steel/

Definitely the kind of policy that will send ripples through the economy.




Transportation is stupid cheap and efficient. Humans got their logistics down.  It's why it's like, 4x more efficient to make beef in NZ and ship it to the EU, instead of making beef in the EU.

I would not be even a little bit surprised if it was vastly more efficient to process scrap in China and ship it back as goods. Plus, they have more hydro power, and more solar power, and the primary energy cost is going to be melting everything down, and not shipping it across the pacific. So environmentally speaking, it's probably better to ship anyway.

As for quality control...if it didn't do the job, people wouldn't buy it. It's just easier to blame the other guy, especially if they look different.

EDIT:

Looks like a trade war's a-brewin'. Seems like European cars are next. Good, because the rising costs of steel will make domestic cars even more expensive. In addition to the general all-around shittiness that is the American made vehicle.


Edited by Kryptos (03/03/18 06:08 PM)


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InvisibleStonehenge
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Kryptos]
    #25036901 - 03/03/18 10:35 PM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Every time trump proposes something a great screeching and cackling goes up like when chickens see a hawk flying overhead. All he has done is propose a tariff, its up to congress to pass it. Trump is not like mr i got a pen and a phone, he is letting congress do its job. If it passes it means the dems signed off on it too.

20% is just an opening figure in the bargaining. He is correct in that they are destroying our metals industry by state subsidies, china especially. Why should we let them get away with that? Previous presidents were possibly paid off by other countries to let it keep going. You lefties can screech and cry all you want but it sounds like a good move to me. You want to let this keep on and let them ruin industry after industry?

What is china going to do, stop selling us cheap crap? promises promises. More likely they will work something out, maybe give a better price or limit exports.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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InvisibleballsalsaM
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Stonehenge] * 2
    #25036924 - 03/03/18 10:51 PM (3 years, 2 months ago)

I could support well reasoned tariffs, but I would prefer to simply require that goods sold in the U.S. conform to U.S. production and labor laws and regulations, regardless of where they are produced.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Stonehenge] * 3
    #25037111 - 03/04/18 12:22 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
Every time trump proposes something a great screeching and cackling goes up like when chickens see a hawk flying overhead. All he has done is propose a tariff, its up to congress to pass it. Trump is not like mr i got a pen and a phone, he is letting congress do its job. If it passes it means the dems signed off on it too.

20% is just an opening figure in the bargaining. He is correct in that they are destroying our metals industry by state subsidies, china especially. Why should we let them get away with that? Previous presidents were possibly paid off by other countries to let it keep going. You lefties can screech and cry all you want but it sounds like a good move to me. You want to let this keep on and let them ruin industry after industry?

What is china going to do, stop selling us cheap crap? promises promises. More likely they will work something out, maybe give a better price or limit exports.




Point by point:

False, the tariff was passed using the national security trade exception. Congress has nothing to do with it.

Dems didn't sign off on anything. Except for the Russia Sanctions that Trump has yet to enforce.

It's 25%, not 20%.

China isn't even in the top 10 of steel exporters to the US. Canada, Mexico, and lots of the EU, on the other hand...

Interestingly, Canada also imports a good half of US steel, so they could just turn around and do the same to us.

Well, yeah, this is gonna gonna ruin a good chunk of industry. There's an estimated 6.5M jobs in converting steel into steel goods. Their lives are about to suck. It's like the dishwasher rack makers, they'll end up up like BBQ grills! Not made domestically anymore.

As for what China can do? They could stop buying US debt. We've pretty much doubled our deficit this past year, and if China stops being one of our main financiers, well, rates are gonna go *UP*. Wonder what the deficit hawks in Congress are gonna say about that? Well, actually, they'll say two things: (1) cut social programs, and (2) only democratic deficits are bad, republican deficits are patriotic!


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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Kryptos] * 4
    #25037233 - 03/04/18 01:27 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Fact checking Stonehenge is a full time job


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: koods]
    #25037280 - 03/04/18 02:02 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

Hey, somebody's got to do it. It seems like we have a good rotation going.


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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Kryptos]
    #25037699 - 03/04/18 10:24 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

>the tariff was passed using the national security trade exception. Congress has nothing to do with it

Evidence of that?

The news media calls it a "proposed" tariff so they are saying it hasn't happened yet which makes your claim very suspect. Its just an opening bid, they will modify the figures or drop it entirely if we get enough in return. We will no doubt go very easy on canada.

We are in a lot of one sided trade deals with many countries. This is why we have such a huge trade deficit. Only traitors who hate their own country would want to see that continue yet many on the far left seem to favor it.

I see he is now saying that if europe retaliates we will simply slap a tariff on cars, for example which up to now have been allowed to come in by the millions. I predict we come out of this better than we went in and I can safely predict the media and far left will never admit it even when the numbers are indisputable.

This has been overdue for a long time and up to now no one has had the guts to do anything about it. Our politicians are paid off by anyone with cash so if they get $100k each and it costs usa $100b a year, its a win for them since they don't care. Trump doesn't need or accept any bribes.


--------------------
“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835)

Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/18047755


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Offlineqman
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Re: Trump's Tarrifs [Re: Stonehenge]
    #25037805 - 03/04/18 11:22 AM (3 years, 2 months ago)

When the Democrats, Republicans and MSM all piss on the idea of Trump's tariffs, we know it's a good idea for US citizens.


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