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 geokills
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 Re: Stock Update for August 9, 2017 - Geopolitical Concerns  [Re: geokills]
#24540827 - 08/09/17 07:43 AM (6 years, 8 months ago) |
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Mea culpa, taking a beating on that TSM trade I outlined yesterday, fell right back into congestion on this morning's weak open, laying waste to my expectation of an imminent volatility expansion to the upside. In retrospect, the lower than average trading volume should have kept my exuberance in check a bit. Pulled my $36.25 stop since the stock is set to open right around that level (as options spreads at the open are typically super wide), to see if this stock stabilizes, will set a new stop below the 50 day moving average just in case it really melts down. Market appears to generally be reacting to the Trump vs Kim Jon war of words in addition to some large cap earnings that came in weak (i.e. DIS & PCLN for example), although the S&P is really still just squeezing above 2450. Not much to do today but watch. I had sold half of my TSLA position yesterday for a nice profit, and bought back 1 TSLA January call on the weak open, with a stop just below the opening's low print. I also bought a single January call option on HUM, my first bite into the healthcare sector in quite some time (and that's my bad, because the sector has been on fire). On balance, I'm not comfortable making big bets on the dislocation this morning, since the bollinger bands on the S&P are contracting and today's open just has us back toward the bottom of the short-term range, without much upside to retrace.
NVDA will report earnings after market tomorrow. They have been one of the strongest major stocks out there of late, benefitting in large part from sales of their GPU's to cryptocurrency mining operations. I'm tempted to buy some on today's weakness, but I just can't justify the options premiums. A bull call spread would help mitigate the expense, but the company has run so much since its last earnings report (~70% in three months) that it seems like most participants who want a piece of it, would already have it and look to sell into any earnings pop. If it sells off on a decent report, that's when I would look to pick some up for the longer haul. That might be asking for too much though...
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geokills
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Stock Update for August 15, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24555365 - 08/15/17 09:42 AM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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Not a fan of how the US markets traded over the past week. Last Thursday's violent selloff followed by a springboard jump right back into congestion, quite a shakeout. Nevertheless, there are still a couple of bright spots. AAPL is just a few cents from hitting an all time high, and with their stellar earnings report in the rearview, which showed their services division making money hand over fist, a potential partnership with Aetna (health insurance) to provide the AppleWatch to customers as a health device on the horizon, including the pending reveal of new iPhone models and a potentially stand-alone cellular connected AppleWatch, not to mention that this company is still very cheap on a PE basis relative to the S&P (and especially relative to most tech stocks), it's pretty much the only thing that I have a lot of confidence in owning right now, stock wise.
I do also like the technical setup on TSLA in conjunction with its Model 3 debut and recent larger than expected debt raise (which will help facilitate ramping up production of said Model 3), however it's a very volatile stock and definitely valued richly as is. NVDA has also recovered very nicely since it's earnings selloff, but until it clears it's highs around $175, I would be a bit weary of going in too big as it has already run so far this year and may have trouble making new highs without the aggregate market (i.e. S&P) participating.
Anywho, rally seems a little tired, would be surprised to see the S&P breaking out to new highs before experiencing a more meaningful correction... but crazier things have happened. Mostly cash here.
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qman
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 Re: Stock Update for August 15, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24555554 - 08/15/17 11:14 AM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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geokills
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Stock Update for August 17, 2017 - Bearish action [Re: geokills]
#24560418 - 08/17/17 12:56 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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Second breakdown through the S&P's 50 day moving average inside of two weeks. All prior breaks of the 50 day in recent history have been met with a trip back up to new highs. This appears to be a significant divergence from what has become the new normal. Downside risk is very high right now and volatility is beginning to spike. Unless you are comfortable with very nimble trading, cash is king right here. Made a killing on some UVXY calls/common and SPY puts right out of the gate this morning, but I am out of those trades at this point. Would like to reload, but the end of the day is drawing near and I don't much feel like carrying overnight exposure what with how whippy this market has been on days following outsized moves like this.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
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geokills
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Stock Update for August 22, 2017 - Relief Rally back to the 50 day SMA [Re: geokills]
#24571852 - 08/22/17 01:26 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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Seeing a fairly impressive retracement move today that brings the S&P right back onto its 50 day moving average. I would expect that this relief rally could keep going for another 0.5% or so (up to 246.50-ish on SPY). Volume is about half of what it was on the big down days at the end of last week, so I'm not going to take the bait and go long here. In fact, I'm legging into October $245 SPY Puts and even picking up a little UVXY on a bet that this is pretty much the end of the relief rally and that the 50 day moving average will stand as resistance for a more protracted corrective phase over the near term. As always, protective stops in place.
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geokills
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 Re: Stock Update for August 22, 2017 - Relief Rally back to the 50 day SMA [Re: geokills]
#24576616 - 08/24/17 12:50 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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From a technical standpoint, market looks increasingly weak. Dow Transportation Index breaking below its 200 day moving average. Tuesday's low volume attempt to retake the S&P's 50 day moving average was met with an "inside day" yesterday that closed just below the 50. Today we are building a potential "bearish engulfing" pattern, although we won't really know until the close if that actually happens, but even if the market closes flat to slightly higher today, most of the price action has been below the S&P's 50 day and there hasn't been any meaningful buying to speak of. Leaning heavy on my shorts here, via SPY Oct $245 puts and UVXY Sept $29 calls.
Note, big time central bankers from around the world are having a grand ol' party in Wyoming this week and there is always the chance that we see some extremely dovish commentary coming out tomorrow that might springboard the markets higher. Such is the nature of risk, but since they have already been telegraphing their desire to contract balance sheets and raise rates, especially considering that the market has only a low probability expectation of a December rate hike to begin with, I believe risk is skewed toward the downside.
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geokills
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Stock Update for August 29, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24587734 - 08/29/17 11:32 AM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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Closed my short position on the gap down this morning. Quite a bit of buying pressure came into the market, and now we are right back in congestion at the S&P's 50 day moving average. I am less confident in an immediate continued downside move here, given how quickly the market bounced at this morning's open. That being said, I am still cautious.
I did however add to a long term position in AAPL today, as it is hitting all time highs ahead of their public event on Sept 12th that should see the release of their new iPhone's and what not. Gold was also very strong yesterday, but it seems that one can get more potential upside by buying the miners, so I have been accumulating January $22 calls on the GDX. I also took a small position in MOMO, a Chinese social media company that got slaughtered after its latest earnings report and is back down to its 200 day moving average. They are profitable with increasing guidance and an impressive triple digit growth rate, so I think it's worth taking a starter position here after the intense selling pressure over the last couple of weeks that has it back to a key moving average it hasn't touched since last year.
Not much else I want to do other than watching and keeping positions small and on a tight leash. There just isn't a big trend aside from a general lack of buying enthusiasm and an increase in selling over the past month. There is definitely reduced market breadth and caution flags galore, but despite some quick spikes down, the S&P is still hanging around its 50 day moving average, which is allowing its 200 day to play catch up. I would still be surprised to see it move to new highs from here anytime soon, and am biased toward some more selling... but stranger things have happened.
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┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼
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geokills
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Stock Update for August 31, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24593744 - 08/31/17 04:31 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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Turns out I ditched those shorts rather serendipitously, as the S&P has been surprisingly resilient in retaking its 50 day moving average and almost setting a new all time high today. MOMO has lifted nicely off of its 200 day average (better than 10% over a couple of days and +50% on the Jan $30 calls I bought), and my calls on GDX (which I added to in a big way this morning) are doing very well. Picked up some FB yesterday that is also looking quite nice, with tight bollinger bands coiling right above its 50 day moving average.
I'd have a hard time buying right here after three big up days on the major averages, but who knows, maybe we will see a bonafide breakout going into the weekend. I would suspect a little backing a filling however, with a more prolonged period of sideways consolidation before the S&P breaks out of range in either direction.
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 AroundtheSon
Learning to See
Registered: 01/11/07
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Loc: Midwest.
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Re: Stock Update for August 31, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24595189 - 09/01/17 05:53 AM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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I appreciate your thoughts Mr. Geokills.
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geokills
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Stock Update for September 1, 2017 - Bangin' up against resistance... again [Re: AroundtheSon]
#24595385 - 09/01/17 08:21 AM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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My pleasure, journaling like this helps hold my own feet to the fire, and I would suggest it is an important thing for any serious trader to do, who may wish to learn from his or her successes and, more importantly, failures. The market spiked up this morning, hovering right under the S&P's all time high and not following through. I took this as an opportunity to close quite a bit of positions, FB, a portion of my AAPL (shorter dated calls, still holding a core position in 2018 calls), almost all of my GDX (except for a small handful of 2018 calls), totally out of MOMO for now (from $32.50 to $39 in a few days, especially when using the leverage of options is more than I could have hoped for!).
At the risk of overtrading, I even picked up a few shares of UVXY and some October $249 SPY puts this morning (with stops above today's opening lows and highs, respectively, in efforts to catch a swing trade back down to ~$245-$247 on the SPY. The market moved very nicely for those who were long from Tuesday on, and I suspect smart money will be booking some profits today ahead of the Labor Day weekend which will see markets closed Monday. I could be wrong, but that's my gut feeling. If I'm stopped out of these positions for small losses, too bad, so sad. I will be mostly cash going into next week and ready to trade with a clear head. As is often the case, trading volume typically picks up in a big way after Labor Day weekend when major money managers slide back into their saddles after their summer recess. I can't tell you which way they're going to lean, which is why I (and I suspect some others) may want to reduce their exposure today.
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qman
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2017 - Bangin' up against resistance... again [Re: geokills]
#24613840 - 09/08/17 01:37 PM (6 years, 7 months ago) |
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"It's getting ugly below the surface"
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber
Registered: 09/24/07
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Re: Stock Update for September 1, 2017 - Bangin' up against resistance... again [Re: qman]
#24635331 - 09/16/17 01:33 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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Sold IAG for a 50% gain. KL is sitting at about a 48% gain and continues to be my largest position. Excellent management there and continually bigger discoveries. Who says gold doesn't make money  . Holding PVG into 3rd quarter. If the mine holds, a 50% return will be imminent. Recent reaction seems to be attributable to a less than stellar sample post-milling; however, that is what they said it would be.... don't really get it. The recent company presentation shows everything is on track. Valley of the Kings looks very solid.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
Edited by All We Perceive (09/16/17 01:42 PM)
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber
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Also grabbed CELG at 132. They are going to be nearly double revenue in 2022 with numerous drugs in the pipeline. What's not to like about that? Breakout above 140 and holding very strong. With tax reform around the corner, banks are moving. Agree on AAPL. Also have some shares. People love their Iphone. The haters will be proved wrong. I like the developments about the apple watch also. Tim Cook is no visionary, but the dude knows how to make money. I will be very surprised to not see a tax holiday with a sizeable chunk to shareholders. HOME crushed Q2 and I picked up some more shares on the dip. I'll do the same for Q3 when people cry about how revenue is slightly down due to the hurricane. Looking for $30 on AAXN by Q1 2018. Once their free program ends and people are locked into subscriptions, the stock is going to come alive... just watch. Might take a position in JD as well on the dip. Time will tell.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber
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Geokills, why dump GDX? I can't think of a better position to align with Trump's chaos. It's holding very strong among seemingly "favorable markets" and a "positive legislative calendar." A very bullish sign imo. Miners are pretty much locked into very minor retracement. I expect a pullback to 1310 and then a new high.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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geokills
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Quote:
All We Perceive said:
Geokills, why dump GDX?
It was really as simple as a big gain in a short amount of time, and the discipline of understanding that when we see an upside volatility breakout that perpetuates for several days, there is almost always some measure of a retracement in attempts to test the breakout level. It appears GDX has followed that pattern, breaking out from ~$23, hitting $25.50 within a couple of weeks and now trading back down to $23.77 as of this writing. Note that I don't typically trade common stock, so with the leverage of options, the breakout was fairly significant in my trading book and I did not want to let a retracement evaporate my profits. I do still think the GDX is an OK place to be for a longer term position, and in fact have reloaded with January $22 calls, which I intend to add to as long as we hold $23 (likely adding on a move above $24.50 and $25).
I was on vacation last week, missed a really nice breakout on NVDA on Friday from its 50 day moving average after months of sideways consolidation. Gapped higher again today after some analysts capitulated and raised targets, but I can't in good conscience buy up here. I did happen to see TSLA starting to move last week and even put in a bid, but didn't get a fill, so it continues to move without me. SQ is one that I am fortunate to have a good chunk of, and it is moving very nicely to new all time highs, on significant volume at that.
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geokills
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Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24648438 - 09/21/17 08:29 AM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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Market not feeling very frisky here. Uptrend obviously still intact, but we've been farting around the highs for the last week or two with no real follow through. Former leaders like AAPL and AMZN have been weak, NFLX and FB trading sideways. Just not a big fan of whatever the market is doing here, finding it increasingly difficult to make profitable trades, so that tells me it's time to step back and watch, and stop overtrading. 
GDX fell back to its 200 day moving average on the Fed news. Not a bad entry, but the thing has been pretty weak. Would want to see a move back above $24 to have more confidence in the trade.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24651966 - 09/22/17 03:18 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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Up about 12% in 2 days on PVG on the news that the mine is on track. Feels good to be back in the black after being down ~10%. I expect a pop as we get closer to Q3 as shorts cover back above $10. Really thrilled to see a weekly close on BAC above $25. Now, if we can just take out 25.50.... HOME is going no where with the overhang from the hurricane so closed 1/2 my position. Gold is not looking too good at the moment but the miners are holding very steady... an odd divergence and perhaps a bullish signal.
Opened a position in BABA and going to open a position in TXT Monday morning. Chart looks excellent for TXT, solid industry to be in, and cheap relative to peers. Waiting for a MACD cross on gold to increase my position in the miners. This indicator has been excellent for trend prediction all year. Also opened a small position in Hooker Furniture. The stock looks very solid. Looking for $50 by year end.
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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geokills
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 Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24660008 - 09/25/17 08:43 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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Pretty good buy signal on GDX today, relatively big bounce from the 200 & 50 day moving averages which have remained flat for the bulk of the year, on decent volume. Added to January $22 calls.
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All We Perceive
Sea Cucumber
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Re: Stock Update for September 21, 2017 [Re: geokills]
#24660072 - 09/25/17 09:24 PM (6 years, 6 months ago) |
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Got creamed in large cap techs today
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"plus they atually think jambands are good or sumthing, so they clearly know absolutely nothing about music, clearly lol" -Bassfreak
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geokills
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Yeah, yesterday was not kind to former leadership in tech. I liquidated my SQ and AAPL on the 20th and 21st when Apple started to break its 50 day moving average. Still took some hits, but happy I didn't stick around for events like FB's schmeissing yesterday. Just circling the wagons and patiently regrouping. Not holding much of anything outside of diversified index funds in my retirement accounts and some Oct SPY $250 puts and Jan GDX $22 calls in my trading accounts. [Edit: out of SPY puts & GDX calls, market hitting new highs]
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Edited by geokills (09/27/17 12:20 PM)
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