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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Don't feel bad, I sold a lot of btc at 17 then later more at about 170. Man would I like to still have those coins. But I went back and bought more and made up for it. Even made up for mt gox in fact many times over. I'm sure geo would love to have those 40 coins right now too.
Its around 4090 or so at the moment. It dipped again after going past 4k for the second time, more profit takers came out. But the buying pressure will not be denied. I just sold a very substantial amount today and made a nice profit. But only a tiny fraction of my coins. Now I have to rebuy before it shoots up too much. I get a little worried when I sell now thinking I'll lose out on the rise. I prefer to meet people and swap cash for coin. I have ads here and there and its paid off very well. But hodling is the way to go for sure. -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 52 minutes |
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Just a quick note that I sold another tranche of BTC this morning. I was actually trying to sell it last night before bed when BTC/USD was near $4,500. Unfortunately, my coins were held off-exchange in a private wallet, and an hour after initiating the transfer, I got tired of waiting for confirmation on the exchange and went to bed. Too bad, as by the time I woke up BTC/USD had fallen back to $4,000 and is presently knifing through that level with some considerable downside momentum. I have a small order in to re-enter at $3200, but I still think my original buy target of $2900 has a decent chance of being hit. Will just have to wait and see... The move higher over the past couple of weeks has been so unbelievably sharp that I can't imagine we're not going to see a significant correction before the summer is out.
Respect the balance of power. When buying interest goes parabolic, driven by seemingly never ending positive news flow and then suddenly reverses sharply on high volume, this indicates overhead supply from those who soaked up early supply and are sitting on fat unrealized gains, leaving only the lowest common denominator (i.e. least capitalized) traders to buy high, taking those who bought low out for a nice profit. Ultimately, just as buyers were exhausted, sellers will become exhausted and price will stabilize, rinse and repeat.
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Bummer at missing the 4.5k. I would like to sell some at that price too. Then buy back of course cheaper. How much miner fee did you pay? I find mine go through fairly fast. Even with a tiny fee like 10 to 25 cents per coin it goes through in an hour or two usually now. Pay a dollar a coin or more and it will go faster. Might have been a good time to set the alarm and grab the loot. But it will go back up, you lost nothing.
>I have a small order in to re-enter at $3200, but I still think my original buy target of $2900 has a decent chance of being hit. I see price moving up not down but with the usual minor pullbacks. A year or two back big percentage drops happened almost regularly, or even 6 months back that might have happened. Coin is in more hands now and one joker dumping a mill or two does not crash the price anymore. It does not make other whales do the same either. Cant say 3200 is impossible, the miners could go on strike or something. Govt might make it a crime to own coin after banks and paypal give a big bribe. It would take something big to drop to 2900 for sure even though it was just there. We will see -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 52 minutes |
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Quote: Paid the max on the slider scale via BitcoinCore. I think the delay was on Kraken's end, perhaps on account of requiring a higher number of confirmations before crediting the account, as I sent some to the Bittrex exchange, paid only the average miner fees and it showed up in a half hour. Transfer showed as pending on Kraken very quickly, but took forever to become available for use. Oh well, a profit is a profit. As an aside, the reason I moved a portion of my BTC to Bittrex was to pick up some NEO coins, a rebranding of China's dominant blockchain AntShares, offering one of the more robust smart blockchain technologies available today: https://neo.org
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Its a conundrum, we know its risky to keep coin or cash on an exchange but when a selling or buying opportunity comes along we want to be able to jump on it. You could have made 500 a coin if not for that. Those things can be super annoying. Perhaps the solution is to keep some coin and some cash on the exchange if its a reliable one? I would have been tempted to sell a lot of coin when it spiked and then today would be gloating over the fact I bought it back cheap. Hindsight never is wrong, lol.
Wires go in fast but one of the things I try to do is keep off the radar. I could buy lots of coin maybe even at a discount using wires but banks will shut you down if they suspect you are buying coin or even for too many wires which they think might be part of a scam. I also do not deposit a lot of cash into my accounts. My main account is the safe deposit box. If I get an offer I can grab cash fast and jump on it in person or sell. >I moved a portion of my BTC to Bittrex was to pick up some NEO coins, a rebranding of China's dominant blockchain AntShares, offering one of the more robust smart blockchain technologies available today: https://neo.org It might be a good investment. If you like it I should look into it. There will always be competitors to btc but just like the way windoz has dominated the market despite being crappy software, btc is the big dog and will be hard to displace if it ever does happen. -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 52 minutes |
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Neo is more akin to Ethereum than to Bitcoin, in that its blockchain is designed to do a lot more beyond functioning as a simple distributed ledger and transfer mechanism. I sold some more bitcoin today at $4350. At this point, I've sold about 70% of my BTC. I can't say I'm bearish on it, not by a long shot as the chart is strong as death... but the gains have been extraordinary and I just can't shake my discipline. I could make the case for an unconfirmed inclined head and shoulders pattern developing here. The head tops out at ~$4500, the right shoulder's neck line would be around $4000-4100, which if broken (using traditional technical analysis) would indicate a minimum downside target of $3500-$3700. I would be a fool to state with any certainty that this is bound to happen, but it is something basic for me to sink my teeth into nevertheless.
I will look to reload on weakness, although if we do breakout above $4500 before I get a chance to buy on weakness, I will very likely buy that breakout. However, reloading on a breakout would be done with about half of the position size I would have taken on weakness, as breakouts can fail and I would still want some wiggle room to take advantage of such a scenario.
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Good luck hopefully we will all be able to buy more on weakness.
With the segwit activation scheduled for next week, there are supposed to be a number of improvements. For one thing it will be easier to do smart contracts which we don't have yet. The reason for that is complicated and I only skimmed over it myself but segwit will slim down the process removing some obstacles to writing script for said contracts and other features. It will make it easier for miners to load each block to the max profitability and also make it easier for us to figure the best fee to save money. Fees should go down. They will eliminate signature malleability which in a very few cases could allow a payment once made to be reversed. That is probably why most places want 3 confirmations while we tend to trust 1 or even 0 if we know the person. The segregated witness part itself keeps data so that each node does not have to process so much junk. This helps in many ways and speeds up the network. It is also supposed to raise block size, gradually I believe, to 2mb or possibly more. They say they may need to do another soft fork later to bring out the max functionality but I don't know about that, when where or how. All this sounds like good news for btc in general. It should according to the experts make btc more stable now and in the future. Being able to do smart contracts is another possibly important feature. I look for a nice rise in about a week, unless it shoots up before then and drops on the news. Like the old saying says. I would seriously keep a sharp eye on any softness in price with a mind to get back in. Head and shoulders may say different, lol. -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Come to think of it, this recent shoot up may be in anticipation of segwit being activated since it was approved before the rise. In that case we may see most anything after implementation including a fall. Keep your fingers crossed, geo.
There are various predictions of 10k by years end but no one knows. There is a huge upside waiting since btc is miles away from saturating the market. At some point it will flatten out for sure but that point could be at 50k, 100k, or even 1M. I don't expect to see those numbers for some time, it could take years and in the case of 1m, may never get there. On the other hand, with some 16m coins in circulation which includes coins that were lost and never will be spent, 1m per coin would only be around 16T at most. That sounds like a lot but that is really the minimum needed to do serious work in the world economy. I'm not saying it will get there but it could. Buy a coin and save it for retirement. I doubt it will get into the stratosphere anytime soon like this year or next but 10k would be high flying compared to the beginning of the year. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose, you could get phished and lose all your coin or make a blunder and send it to the wrong address. Don't invest money you may need desperately in the near future because coin could drop in the short term. -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Woah, I no sooner make this post and check the price and coin is doing the swan dive again. Might be time to jump in.
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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Whooops, went back up already. If you blinked you missed it. It was down to about 4200 or under but back to over 4300
-------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 52 minutes |
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I have my bids in for BTC, but I'm finding my time better spent on stocks today. Had liquidated my entire trading portfolio earlier in the week and ripped on some SPY puts and UVXY calls and common, which have also been liquidated as of this writing. Suspecting the market has farther to fall, as this is the second probe through the S&P's 50 day moving average inside of two weeks, which is fairly ominous, but I don't want to carry large exposure overnight.
Back on topic, CNBC published a fascinating interview with one of PayPal's early officers regarding blockchain technology that I came across this morning... Quote:
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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I suspect the stock market has just about peaked right now. Of course I was thinking the same for the last couple years or so and it continues to defy gravity. I think if you cashed out recently and are very cautious about moving back in that is probably the best course.
I've decided to stop buying and selling btc for the moment. Its so unstable which is good for the scalpers perhaps but with the big recent runup, as you pointed out, it could easily give back a lot of its gains. I have a pretty good stash so if it continues to go vertical I'm in decent shape. But nothing ever does that without a pause or slide back. The question of course is when will it fallback and how low will it go? If it goes to 5k before a serious correction then the dip might only be to low 4000's. But it could happen at any time. So while I'm bullish on the long term I think this is a good time to pause a bit. The limit on number of transactions he speaks of is a major concern with any crypto coin. The segwit improvements will help a lot but in the future it will take further improvements to keep scaling up. They are talking about another soft fork to do just that. Another possibility is for secondary companies to bear part of the load. We can have bitcoin accounts like they have at the exchanges but do transactions that don't go over the blockchain. If you and your seller both have an account there, you can pay them with bitcoin out of your confirmed balance and it can be credited to his account, he can then send the goods without waiting on the chain. When you deposit to an institution, it would go into their btc account and you have a ledger entry. That means trusting the companies which could be a weak point but if a major firm got behind it people would tend to trust. This would depend in part on regulation etc which now is uncertain. That is another thing keeping btc down, the uncertainty. If govt backed the btc accounts at major banks and firms such as with fdic, then we will see coin hit heights no one would have believed a few years ago. But that I doubt will happen any time soon. -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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Hellbound Hell Hound Registered: 05/14/17 Posts: 11,788 Loc: Last seen: 3 months, 4 days |
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Quote: a study came out saying 80% of monero transactions can be de-anonymized An Empirical Analysis of Linkability in the Monero Blockchain https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04299 --------------------
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 52 minutes |
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Monero getting listed in South Korea (and some press about the IRS hunting down crypto tax evaders) really lit a fire under it. I was watching on its initial post-pop pullback to $70, and even put a bid in around $60, but never got any and thus didn't participate. Honestly, the velocity by which some of these cryptos move freaks me out a bit.
That being said, Bitcoin is still meandering around above $4,000. Volatility is starting to squeeze short-term, and the fact that it hasn't had any lasting pullbacks is a pretty bullish sign from a technical standpoint, although I suspect it may need another week or two of sideways action before making a big move, up or down. The longer it stays up here in a relatively narrow range, the less confident I am that I will be seeing the deep pullback I had hoped for when I liquidated the majority of my position between $3950-4350. Open hand, I did buy back a little bit of exposure here at $4300. I can still fathom a test of the $3000 level, but it's open season on crypto and now that institutional sized funds are getting involved, I would expect any deep pullbacks to be met with buying by strong (i.e. well capitalized) hands looking for long term exposure. For my money, Ether is the most attractive of the majors right here right now. It is building a cup and handle pattern and marching along its upper bollinger band. While it still has to clear its all time highs around $400 before reaching blue sky territory (i.e. no overhead supply from regretful buyers who bought at a higher price), I think it's going to test those highs sooner rather than later. For a more speculative play, I like the consolidation in the Chinese smart blockchain Neo, but for now it's not moving [edit: as if on cue, Neo dives overnight on news that the Chinese government will be regulating the ICO market; fewer ICO's = less demand for Neo from ICO participants. I take this as a decent entry and added to my position]. This is one I would stash away just to see what happens. I suspect it has one of the better risk/reward profiles for outsized intermediate term gains. But while they have a promising platform, they (as with so many of these cryptos) have yet to be proven. Problems with their development teams or boners on execution could witness big selling. Hence, this is one of the more speculative of the decent plays in the generally-speculative crypto space. As an aside, gold is starting to break out, and since gold does carry some correlative aspects to crypto in terms of safehaven allocation, I figured it was worth mentioning. Recommend January $22 call options on GDX for a bullish breakout. Edited by geokills (08/29/17 04:04 PM)
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LSx Registered: 02/26/08 Posts: 12,086 |
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I would have made 75K on my NEO holdings if I kept them one week longer. I needed funds and sold all at $9 a piece. The thing is I had several other coins I could have gotten rid of instead, like Stratis. I don't know why I chose NEO but if I waited 7 days I'd be up a lot
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∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙ Registered: 05/08/01 Posts: 23,417 Loc: city of angels Last seen: 3 hours, 52 minutes |
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Log in to view attachment
One of the hard lessons I've (thought to have) learned over my decade plus of trading stocks and options, is that the compulsion to overtrade can be unrelenting, and ultimately catastrophic to one's profitability.
That said, I have continued to rebuild my position in Bitcoin, as it has remained relatively stable above $4,000 and over the past few days has been setting fresh all time highs above $4,500. Trading volume is down somewhat since the mid-August highs around $4,400, which suggests some caution is warranted and that a near term rocket-fueled breakout is probably not in the cards... but you never know. I have had to to capitulate and repurchase coins I sold approximately 10% lower, as I had reduced my exposure to such an extent that my holdings were negligible, and that's not where I want to be when an asset class that I believe in is setting fresh all time highs. Short term, Ether has been the more impressive of the two major cryptocurrencies in my view, from a technical review of its price action. It is now just hugging up against its all time highs with strong upside momentum. There is a not dissimilar marginal concern of decreasing volume as we have moved from $280 to $380 on ETH, but the volatility has been relatively constrained. Summer often sees big money on vacation, and it is typically after Labor Day here in the States that major money managers start to place their longer term bets. It will be interesting to see if and how this affects the crypto markets. In addition to accumulating BTC, ETH and NEO, I have also started to accumulate OmiseGO (OMG). This is a relative newcomer on the block, but is attempting to pioneer (amongst other things), the world's first decentralized exchange, which is something I have been eager to see happen. Combine its impressive ambitions with a rockstar development/advisor team composed of some heavy hitting Ethereum and Bitcoin founders/developers, and the fact that it is being built alongside an existing functional product, and this is one project that appears to have legs (i.e. worthy to wager upon). Rather than attempt to paraphrase ad nauseum, take a gander at the following document Jun Hasegawa, a founder for the project published earlier this week: The OmiseGO Project white paper is also attached to this post for those so inclined to review. And just for shits and giggles, here's a snapshot of the coins under discussion:
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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4600 as we speak. Going in bigtime on btc has paid off for me. I have a few ether but not many and even they have gone up nicely. I look for btc to go up nice and steady in the future. No big pullbacks and no rocket fueled surges.
What seems to be happening is many people sitting on the sidelines wishing they had gotten in earlier or hadn't sold so cheap. Soon as they see a little pullback its time to get back on the train. If it goes up too steadily you get some profit takers but the upward pressure is unrelenting. If transaction fees get out of line, which they are starting to do, then I can see the momentum slowing. Its still a great time to get in but keep in mind its a long term asset not a pump and dump. Gold too is making its move upward -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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00101011 Registered: 06/17/09 Posts: 8,890 Loc: Canada, eh? |
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Made a huge killing off NEO, and GAS during the last big boom.
Out of curiosity how many of you do any blockchain programming? I currently do Solidity and Ethereum Dapp development, and am in the process of learning HyperLedger. If any of you have participated in ICOs in the last 4 months I've probably wrote the contracts for at least one of them ![]() @Geo: OMG is absolutely fantastic. I believe it will be the first ERC20 compliant token to utilize Vitalik's new sharding method for Ethereum whose name escapes me currently :thinking: @Stonehenge: Unless something catastrophic happens I don't see the upward momentum for Bitcoin slowing down. Realistically more and more poeple will start to hop on the train, as in the grand scheme of things whether you buy BTC now or 1 year from now you're still an early adopter and will still have insane profit margins to make if you don't panic and sit back for a while. Edited by deadwk (09/03/17 03:55 PM)
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Alt Center Registered: 06/20/04 Posts: 14,850 Loc: S.E. |
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@thedeadwalkk
>Unless something catastrophic happens I don't see the upward momentum for Bitcoin slowing down. Realistically more and more poeple will start to hop on the train, as in the grand scheme of things whether you buy BTC now or 1 year from now you're still an early adopter and will still have insane profit margins to make if you don't panic and sit back for a while. Agreed. Just a day or two ago I boasted about btc being over 4900. I did say I expected a pullback at 5k as many people see the magic number which may have been their goal and decide to cash in. It was totally expected and normal. It went back to about 4400 and is now just under 4600, a perfect time to get back in or to buy more. I have a deal going now to buy over a coin and another deal brewing. My holdings are fairly high but rather than sell I want more. I expect the price to surge up again, probably go over 5k again and once more to drop some but not as much as the first time it hit 5k. It fell like a rock no doubt many were waiting on that number. I think the next pullback will be much smaller and then it will go over 5k, and probably wobble back and forth a bit like it did after passing 4k. Then of course the constant buy pressure forces it up making those who sold out feel like they missed the boat. If you don't need the cash hold onto your coin. If you have extra cash to invest it is a good place to put it. I totally agree we are still early adopters and will be richly rewarded down the road. Don't buy expecting a quick killing on the price, don't buy if you will likely need the money bad in a short time period and are banking on a profit. It may happen that way or you may have need at the precise moment it pulled back and get little profit or have to eat a loss. For example if you bought at 4900 looking for a short term profit and today the rent is due, you will have a sad face. If you are in for the long term you are fine. Long term being 1 year or more. For me, its long long long term and I expect to become wealthy within a few years on it, whatever wealthy means now days. Used to mean having a mill in assets but that now is barely mid middle class. Although on a world basis owning even 100k puts you in the rich category. Join the upper 10% some day, or even maybe 1%. We can always dream. If coin hits 100k per, then many of us will be up there. Could hit a million per, but I better simmer down before geo gets on my case for being too optimistic. lol. Join in on the excessive optimism and share the wealth. -------------------- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.” (attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville political philosopher Circa 1835) Trade list http://www.shroomery.org/forums/
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00101011 Registered: 06/17/09 Posts: 8,890 Loc: Canada, eh? |
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![]() I love reading about BTC prices in the states, because our dollar is so fucking shit 1 BTC here peaked at a little under 7K CAD. I don't think a 20K BTC by 2020 is super far fetched, but that's still a little over 2 years away and that's a lot of time for stuff to happen to Bitcoin. I've been getting into margin funding and margin trading. I doubled my BTC holding with a 30 day loan on Bitfinex, and am on schedule to do the same with my Ether. Me and a friend are snagging a couple of these up in the next week or so https://obelisk.tech/. -------------------- I'm doing a monthly giveaway for a 6-month supporter account. Click this link to be taken to my journal for an overview, along with a link to the most recent giveaway. Edited by deadwk (09/03/17 08:00 PM)
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