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OfflineEarthsweeties
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Registered: 10/06/16
Posts: 59
Last seen: 5 years, 5 months
Automation,AI and the Future * 1
    #24552920 - 08/14/17 10:45 AM (6 years, 5 months ago)

http://mashable.com/2017/08/06/silicon-valley-automation-apocalypse-jamie-bartlett/#bt8joYOpFsqh

I recently watched a documentary on the BBC, textualised in the above article.  The thrust of it is that automation and AI using Neural Networks are advancing at an exponential rate and are expected (by Silicon Valley developers and experts) to soon reach a sophistication which renders most human jobs redundant.

As in within a matter of years, and within most of our lifetimes.

What are your views on the technology, its proliferation and the inevitable social consequences on the horizon? 

Would you be happy to be handed a universal income and have Google machines do all the work?

Tents and composting toilets at the ready?


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InvisibleDividedQuantumM
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Registered: 12/06/13
Posts: 9,818
Re: Automation,AI and the Future [Re: Earthsweeties]
    #24552988 - 08/14/17 11:16 AM (6 years, 5 months ago)

Excellent post. Obviously, no one knows what exactly is going to happen, and I'm sure it will be at least somewhat different than anyone is guessing. That said, I fully agree that, probably within thirty years, there will be no remaining jobs being done by humans. When you can have an A.I. bot do it for no pay, without mistakes and around the clock, human labor will be obsolete. The question is whether the ownership class will allow some type of universal basic income to sustain society, or whether we will slip into dystopia. It is not at all clear which will be a reality. But this thing is real, and it is the biggest revolution in human history.

There is an ironic problem here. It is the dream of centuries to have robots do all the work. Unfortunately, now that we are on the doorstep of this reality, we have no plan, and things could easily go very badly. As unemployment goes up, we could have a very rocky road, especially considering the ineptitude of government to deal with our issues.

In any case, it's going to be an interesting ride...


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Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici


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InvisibleDieCommie

Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
Re: Automation,AI and the Future [Re: Earthsweeties]
    #24555572 - 08/15/17 11:21 AM (6 years, 5 months ago)

I think the time frame of this happening is further out than many people hypothesize.  Like flying cars, moon bases and fusion energy - its going to be "just around the corner" for a long time.  Why doesn't technological advance meet our expectations?  I believe technological advance is slowing down.  I think the fastest technological advance occurred from 1860/1870 to 1960/1970.  During that period we were able to exploit new fundamental theories which spurred rapid technological advance.  Since then our fundamental theories have not changed as much, thus our technology hasn't advanced as fast.  Of course technological advance is a hard concept to quantify, so it is certainly an opinion and one that is not widely shared.  Nonetheless, I believe it to be true.

When massive AI and automation come about, whether sooner or later, it will certainly cause a change to our economic and social structures.  A look to the past can be informative.  Technological innovation in the past has destroyed jobs and created jobs.  According to economists, past innovations have created more jobs than they have destroyed.  And those new jobs are generally better in that they are safer and pay more.  Add in the efficiency bonus of innovation and you see an increase in standards of living.  You can see that I am no luddite.  As time progresses we spend more and more of our earned capital on luxuries rather than basic necessities.  So much so that we often view our luxuries as necessities.  Or, our society is rebuilt in a way that what was a luxury becomes a necessity (like a car or the internet).  Industries surrounding these luxuries that past generations didn't fathom are where the new jobs are.

But, on the other hand, eventually automation could progress to the point where the jobs it creates are simply un-doable by the majority of the population.  I think programming is a little like this.  Massive demand for programmers has come from innovation, but many (or most) people are just not smart enough to do it.  I don't mean that to belittle them of course, humans have a range of capabilities and not everyone is capable.  It's a problem we are already dealing with.  Many of the jobs available are just not doable by everyone, so some people are stuck.  Social services pick up some of that slack, but they are not currently equipped for massive unemployability.

I believe that automation will create jobs.  I think it will free up resources that will allow us to pursue endeavors we cannot fathom at the moment.  If we can manage our resources properly, we can provide social services to those who are incapable of producing.  Also, many existing jobs can be staffed more to produce a benefit.  Less students per classroom means we need more teachers, less patients per doctor means we can employ more doctors.  A shorter work week can create jobs and improve standards of living.

Another thing I consider may seem far out.  I am a trans-humanist.  I believe the melding of biology and technology and genetic modifications could be the next step of human evolution.  A positive step.  People engineered to live in space, other planets or moons can mine for extra-terrestrial resources.  People with augmented limbs, eyesight, etc can perform tasks that current humans cannot.  People with a brain-computer hybrid can live in cyberspace as a fundamentally new frontier.  In these scenarios, humans are the AI.  That is, a next evolutionary step for humans is to become the AI.  We don't lose are jobs to computers, we become computers.  Living, thinking, dreaming, emotional computers.


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InvisibleDividedQuantumM
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Registered: 12/06/13
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Re: Automation,AI and the Future [Re: DieCommie]
    #24555657 - 08/15/17 12:03 PM (6 years, 5 months ago)

Very interesting post, DieCommie. :thumbup:


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Vi Veri Universum Vivus Vici


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OfflineEarthsweeties
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Registered: 10/06/16
Posts: 59
Last seen: 5 years, 5 months
Re: Automation,AI and the Future [Re: DividedQuantum]
    #24557311 - 08/16/17 05:15 AM (6 years, 5 months ago)

Interesting indeed.

I kind of agree that the timescales could be longer. It'll take time for AI to be integrated into industries long after the technology exists.

It'll sure be interesting in terms of future generations ability, if kids learn programming from a young age etc, it could help with the eradication of manual/process jobs...

Good to hear a positive perspective though :laugh:


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