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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws]
#25474625 - 09/20/18 07:26 AM (5 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
sh4d0ws said: Hey Geo,
Have you claimed your tezos on the beta net? Have you been baking?
I'm pretty happy with the rewards. I have like $10K in ASIC'S and GPU's and I'm making more money right now on my staked Tezos than I am mining ETH & BTC.
about 10-12% for the past 2 months 
Congrats sh4d0ws. I never got around to baking or delegating my XTZ. I was about to, but life has been busy and I didn't want to risk screwing something up on the command line for a few extra percent before we move out of the betanet. To be clear, the "10-12% for the past 2 months" that you are earnings is an annualized figure, correct? You didn't get a +10% reward inside of two months did ya?
My general sentiment on the market is that it is boring, but work is getting done. I have expected 2018 to be a lost year and for another major move higher to be years in the making. There was just too much excitement and irrational exuberance as the dawn of crypto became apparent to the world, now we need to firm up some self-regulating policies, more clarity on government imposed regulating policies, weed out the scams, build out real world applications and continue work on solving the altogether frustrating scalability issues that plauge the space without sacrificing security.
It's a long game. I don't really think we're going to break meaningfully lower on BTC, as the lows have more or less held throughout the year. Not saying it couldn't happen, but again, I am not actively trading in the space and my allocations are built for the years long haul. I am surprised how viciously ETH has fallen. I suppose a lot of it has to due with the incredible raises ICO's had over past years, and the overhang created by their desire to liquidate some of those holdings either as a hedge against further devaluation or (more hopefully) to use toward the buildout of their projects.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Tulipslave] 1
#25480228 - 09/22/18 08:39 AM (5 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
Tulipslave said:
i'm quite curious as to how many of the active posters in this thread buy ACTUAL currencies, USD, Yuan, Euros, etc....and treats them as they treat their cryptos
There is a marked difference between most cryptocurrencies and general currency and it has to do with the fact that the term cryptocurrency is somewhat misleading. While crypto assets can be used as a medium of exchange, they may not yet meet the requirements of prevalence and generalized use to reasonably be considered a currency as it is commonly understood. Many crypto assets also carry attributes beyond being a medium of exchange, such as a fractional undivided interest in a limited supply of units that provide to the holder voting rights or other rights of network participation not granted to those who do not hold the asset, as well as potential relative price appreciation derived from actions outside of the holder's individual control.
These extra attributes of many crypto assets are at the heart of the current debacle involving the Security and Exchange Commission's investigations into many crypto projects, which are being defined as a security or investment contract, because of the fact that, provided the development teams are genuine in rolling out a robust product that results in incremental public adoption, the investor who has purchased units of the crypto asset stands to receive a profit benefit from the underlying asset's price appreciation on account of the efforts of those other than him or herself.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ashfiken]
#25480451 - 09/22/18 10:15 AM (5 years, 4 months ago) |
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Crypto assets that are designed principally as a method of value transfer may be considered a currency more generally, those with centralized development teams and proprietary governance that carry additional utility and went through the ICO fundraising process could be considered more of a security. The majority however, share both attributes to varying degree.
I'm not sure what exactly you are asking about stocks and bonds compared to crypto assets. The value of both are based on meeting in between the amount that someone is willing to sell them for (the ask) and what someone is willing to buy them for (the bid). Stock shares do often carry voting rights, so in that respect they may be considered somewhat similar to crypto assets like Tezos whereby each stakeholder can presumably cast a vote proportional to their stake, concerning matters of governance. The difference being that stocks are generally votes by proxy, whereby you are periodically voting for the board directors that do the specific decision making; and a crypto asset like Tezos presumably allows stakeholders to vote on the specific decisions themselves.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ashfiken]
#25482460 - 09/23/18 08:24 AM (5 years, 4 months ago) |
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In theory you could orchestrate such a trade, but the systems in place are not logistically setup to facilitate those transactions as almost all stock ownership records these days are kept in a digital book in the custody of the bank or clearing house with which you trade, as opposed to the older days when people would hold the actual stock certificates issued by the company. Furthermore, stock assets are priced with immediacy as a result of the digital clearing houses through which they move, where most buyers' and sellers' bids and asks are visible, and thus price discovery is more or less immediate. As a result, it is an impractical proposition to obtain a tangible stock certificate (or fill out the necessary forms with a bank/broker to digitally transfer shares to another individual directly), as it would take ages when compared to the split second ability of today's digital networks to use a common fiat denomination as the clearing currency for each settled transaction. This delay is particularly problematic because the values of both assets are constantly in flux.
As a side note, we have a corporation setup to manage the Shroomery, and we recently bought back a chunk of one of our shareholder's stock in exchange for a cryptocurrency payment. This required a physical stock certificate to be signed back to the company before the crypto disbursement was made, which was a process that between the writing of the final Share Purchase Agreement, obtaining notarized signatures and the time in transit still took over a week. A far cry from the efficient fiat based digital transaction system for most publicly traded equities today.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: mndfreeze] 2
#25484174 - 09/23/18 10:41 PM (5 years, 4 months ago) |
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Quote:
mndfreeze said: Wait..... is it a public corp? Can I buy shroomery stock?!?
I want shroomery stock....
Privately held California C-Corporation my good man. We have additional restrictions on the books so you can't just go giving Y costco sized Ranch buckets in exchange for a few shares either!
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott]
#25503585 - 10/01/18 02:24 PM (5 years, 3 months ago) |
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Whether you choose to draw your lines from the wicks or the meat of the candles is personal preference, and I would certainly advocate drawing both, as you have, since you want your pattern confirmed in as many manners as possible in order to give you increasing confidence in your thesis. Chart reading is as much art as it is science, in that the conclusions drawn are only known to be truly instructive after they have been confirmed. In other words, not all patterns will play out as expected. XLM/BTC does appear constructive, consolidating in anticipation of confirming a breakout, however there is another related chart that should be taken into consideration.
It is worth noting that XLM/USD is not printing the same triangle, and instead repeatedly bouncing off of $0.18-$0.20 as a base level. The attempts at bouncing off of this level have been increasingly weak, having created a series of lower highs since the beginning of the year, which is not a positive development as it indicates that buyers have been less aggressive on each subsequent attempt to rally. This does throw a yellow flag with regard to your thesis of an XLM/BTC breakout from a triangle pattern. In order to have high confidence in a lasting breakout, one would want to see XLM move above 0.000042 BTC while also seeing a move above $0.32.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Middleman]
#25577647 - 10/29/18 10:47 PM (5 years, 2 months ago) |
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I am all for this price stabilization, as I feel it could be prerequisite to new waves of adoption. At scale retail uses of bitcoin have been problematic given the volatility. Unless immediately exchanging out to a local fiat currency, the swings can be crushing (at least in the case of early 2018) to a company's bottom line who has chosen to accept crypto. This is an exciting new technology where value dislocated (got ahead of its near term utility), but it is nevertheless an underutilized and promising technology with active innovators working to improve its functionality. Nothing in the current environment is compelling me to buy or sell, yet I remain cautiously optimistic and am happy to maintain exposure to the asset class.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Middleman]
#25577687 - 10/29/18 11:13 PM (5 years, 2 months ago) |
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Speculative markets are in effect forward pricing mechanisms. If there is a belief in bitcoin (or associated cryptocurrencies) gaining greater future adoption, it makes some sense that due to their limited supply, their reference value will have to rise as more participants utilize the asset. Thus, it is this speculative influence on the potential increase in the future use of these assets that would result in a premium added to their cost of production when determining their market value. The cost of production alone could be considered an intrinsic or fundamental value. But so long as market participants believe that there is the potential for future appreciation, that premium will be incorporated into the market price of the asset. How large the premium is at any given moment will depend on how rosey the expectations may be, which can be affected by actual adoption but also by regulatory matters and how they may support or encumber future adoption velocity.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Kinko] 1
#25581967 - 10/31/18 02:26 PM (5 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Kinko said: what would you say are the best 3 cryptos for long term investment ? which cryptos do you see doing well starting in 2019 ?
I'm not foolish enough to assume that any cryptos are going to do well in 2019. It could happen, but it could well be several years to a decade or more before we see another major crypto growth cycle. Indeed, we might never see growth trajectory along the lines of what we saw during the second half of 2017. My intention is to maintain diversified exposure to the asset class in hopes to catch some of what I expect to be long term benefit, but it's really too early to reliably pick winners out of the fray.
Here's what I hold:
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Cardano (ADA)
- Tezos (XTZ)
- Monero (XMR)
- Neo (NEO)
- VeChain (VEN)
- Stellar (XLM)
- Zilliqa (ZIL)
- Polyswarm (NCT)
- OmiseGo (OMG)
- Nebulas (NAS)
- Icon (ICX)
Invested, as yet unreleased:
- Hedera Hashgraph
- tZero
- Props
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Kinko] 2
#25585734 - 11/01/18 10:49 PM (5 years, 2 months ago) |
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There is no next bitcoin. Bitcoin is the proof of concept for trustless digital currency that avoids the double spend problem. That can only happen once.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott]
#25591390 - 11/04/18 10:59 AM (5 years, 2 months ago) |
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Thanks for elaborating with such deft clarity, SirShrooms.

There will very likely be more robust implementations of the digital ledger technology that bitcoin has proven, however these new implementations are very unlikely to give you the same opportunity that bitcoin did.
I think HederaHashgraph is probably a more capable and scalable implementation of public ledger technology that will have far greater use cases than bitcoin presently does (keep in mind the bitcoin protocol can be upgraded to include broader feature sets, including layer two networks that work in conjunction with the basic network). However, the cat is out of the bag, in that your ability to invest in the next a better bitcoin will be hampered by the fact that the technology is known to have value and you will thus be competing for a slice of a pie that carries a very high initial valuation.
Case in point, the initial "public" (still restricted to accredited investors) funding round for Hedera value the product at something nearing $6 billion. That means that unless you have create the technology yourself, you can't get in on the ground floor anymore in the way that you could have with bitcoin when it was valued at $0 and you could literally have minted hundreds or even thousands of coins for yourself with very few resources, or purchased coins for next to nothing in its early use stages.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws]
#25592607 - 11/04/18 09:02 PM (5 years, 2 months ago) |
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Correct. It appears that due to the lack of solid guidance regarding regulation, and the investigations surrounding ICO's by governing bodies like the SEC; all the well put together platforms are restricting their ICO's to accredited investors these days, in efforts to reduce the probability of getting on the wrong side of whatever regulation may ultimately come to be. Worse yet, the accredited sales tend to be at very high valuations, as the organizations doing the ICO have already raised funding in seed rounds on much more favorable terms. And the only way to get into seed rounds short of knowing the teams, is by investing in crypto funds like Pantera, which typically require a $100K minimum buy in.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott] 1
#25608203 - 11/11/18 10:39 PM (5 years, 2 months ago) |
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For the past six months, XLM has been trading in a range roughly between $0.20-$0.30. The chart is showing healthy consolidation, but as the old adage goes, a trader should expect the expected. For now, XLM is continuing to trade sideways with declining volatility where $0.30-$0.33 is acting as resistance. If we see a break above $0.33, that would be interesting. Otherwise, patient buyers would want to accumulate when the issue is trading closer to $0.20 near the bottom of its range.
Much of the crypto space has been seeing a decrease in volatility over the last little while, and while this calm period could be a prelude to a cyclical pickup in price movement, we don't really know if XLM (or any other issue) is going to see that happen in the next few days, or weeks, or months, or years. In other words, there is nothing wrong with the chart, and it could very well be setting up for a breakout... But it isn't there yet.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ashfiken]
#25615409 - 11/14/18 09:46 PM (5 years, 2 months ago) |
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Very poor price action. I'd like to say "fire sale" but if the fire burns everything to ashes...
Odd to see such a downdraft after a relatively prolonged period of price stability on what seems to be no news*. This indicates that the market/sector is still very fragile and generally thin. It will be interesting to see if we can bounce back into the $6K's on BTC within the next few days in order to maintain the range that had heretofore been building a solid base. If we don't, that is going to be a significant technical hurdle going forward. I've already taken handy profits several times over my original crypto allocation and have touted my long term commitment to the space (and I will maintain some commitment regardless); however if BTC $6K isn't regained by the back half of November, I am apt to reallocate up to 30% of my capital away from crypto and back into my equity trading portfolio. This base should be holding with how long it has held thus far, and if it doesn't recover soon it is likely to become a formidable resistance level.
*The only news I can find is regarding a divide/fork on bitcoin cash. We've had contentious forks before. The original bitcoin cash fork was an early test of whether or not the market would weather such shenanigans, and it seemed to pass at the time. It doesn't seem like this move on a secondary asset should have such an impact on the sector at large, but it's the only relevant news I can find at this point.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott] 1
#25627198 - 11/20/18 09:53 AM (5 years, 2 months ago) |
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While a double bottom (or top) is not an uncommon pattern, as price tends to revisit perceived support or resistance levels in efforts to confirm the level, double bottoms would typically occur within a shorter period of time. When you're looking back more than a year in the chart, you are starting to grasp at straws. Those levels can sometimes still prove relevant, but because there has been a lot of churn/trading between then and now, they simply aren't as relevant as they would be if they had happened a month or two ago. As time rolls on, the average cost basis of traders will also change, and the regret associated with having purchased or sold so long ago becomes less visceral, and thus less likely to spawn a knee-jerk reaction to buy or sell once the level is again hit.
I had a mind to post that XRP has proven remarkably resilient. I don't own any, as I have been hands off on my crypto portfolio for some time, but it has been a relative outperformer of late and if I were actively trading, I would probably be allocating more of my portfolio toward XRP, and ditching several of the other altcoins I still hold. The amounts I have involved are nominal to me however, and my efforts are better focused on the equity market right now.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott] 1
#25668551 - 12/09/18 06:24 PM (5 years, 1 month ago) |
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One consideration that resonated with me recently, and frankly one that I should have been more mindful of well before this point, is a looming liquidity crisis for many ICO funded crypto projects. That is to say, save for the teams that immediately converted their ICO receipts into fiat (and many did not - at least not in an appreciable way), they are sitting on assets that in the current environment are increasingly difficult to liquidate in large amounts. Any serious project requires continuous funding to proceed with development and marketing, and unfortunately many projects which are relying on an ICO warchest denominated in crypto, are nearing the point where they will become forced sellers in order to abate a liquidity crisis. Because of the relative lack of liquidity in the space to begin with, this dynamic may continue to put considerable extended pressure on fiat denominated prices as more projects cascade into panic selling simply to afford maintaining their mere existence.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#25826390 - 02/20/19 09:55 PM (4 years, 11 months ago) |
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Trading volume hits a 300 day high, on the heels of a week that has seen a better than 10% rise in the majority of dominant crypto assets. We are testing $4K on BTC now, and while I would not be surprised to see it back off of this level a bit, if it blows through, I think you could take this for a trade higher on continued momentum. The fall from the range just above $6K last November was so precipitous that a technical throwback to at least $5K seems probable. Volume is an important indicator, especially if it is upside volume after a prolonged washout that has witnessed declining volume as the market was seemingly left for dead. I'm not cheerleading for new highs, but I am saying that the market has been definitively constructive over the past two weeks and the uptick in volume in particular does create an attractive trade setup.
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#25833713 - 02/23/19 11:24 PM (4 years, 10 months ago) |
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Starting to chew through resistance here. Those actively trading these things should well be actively long here. Recommend 50% position stop at $4100 BTC, 50% at $3900. In other words, do not hold any long trading positions bellow $3900. But if we don’t even hit the initial $4100 stop, this should have legs considerably higher.
Edit: Fake out, ricochet right off resistance. Need to clear $4200 for trading longs to gain confidence.
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Edited by geokills (02/24/19 11:03 AM)
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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: HamHead]
#25874879 - 03/14/19 10:34 PM (4 years, 10 months ago) |
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That we have held current levels just under $4K BTC without trading back to the recent lows is somewhat encouraging, however every attempt to break higher has as yet been rejected, so there really isn't all that much to get lathered up about. All the while, the 200 day moving average (a "key" moving average, i.e. one major technical indicator that traders pay attention to) is still declining, presently cutting through $5K BTC, and will likely act as some resistance on any breakout. The longer it takes for BTC to stage a breakout above $4.2K, the lower the ceiling will be as the 200 day continues to descend, thus making any breakout less of an easy money trade.
I do think the 80% draw down off of the all time highs does present a reasonably attractive entry for long term positioning. However, I am under no illusion that we should expect to see such a powerful breakout as to propel us back to fresh all time highs. I like the work that is being done in the space. The hype cycle has waned and the real projects with real development are working at building out their platforms (it's easier to spot projects that are likely to go no where at this point). I am particularly excited to see how my relatively small hand in Hedera Hashgraph's ICO plays out, as they offer one of the more interesting technologies and have announced some impressive partners dispersed around the globe for the initial tranche of their governing council. The entire space is likely to be a slow grind for some time... We'll see how it all shakes out.
Quick note to HamHead, the common turn of phrase is "buy the rumour, sell the news".
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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: SirShroomsAlott]
#25910640 - 04/01/19 10:40 PM (4 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
If you don't mind me asking Geo, Has your opinion/list on what cryptos are worth holding or have potential changed due to this downtrend?
Not too much, although there are some projects that could reasonably be cut from my earlier lists, such as ZAP. So much is still so very speculative, that it is difficult to know where the ultimate winners may be hiding. Suffice it to say that it is wise to maintain primary exposure to BTC as the overall market driver. Speaking of which, it is breaking out to a five month high as I type.
In terms of the alts, in no particular order, I would favor ADA, XTZ, NEO, ETH, XMR and NCT. On a more speculative rung, I also like NEBL, ZIL and VET. Lastly, I still keep an eye on XLM, OMG, ICX, and NAS, although these hold the least of my conviction.
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