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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Lophosaurus]
    #25158728 - 04/22/18 08:49 PM (5 years, 9 months ago)

Shroomery timeshare! :rofl:

You had it right Loph, I'm talking about buying pullbacks that shows signs of buyers/stabilization at prior resistance levels; as resistance levels, once broken through, should serve as new support levels if the move has legs for continued upside.

Zilliqa (ZIL) had a really nice pop over the past couple of days.  I can't find any specific news, as they released their public testnet at the end of March and had an exchange listing about a week ago, but nothing that appeared to be a major recent catalyst.  As I accumulated a fairly large position between $0.04-$0.05, I unloaded 20% of my holdings yesterday just above $0.10, since the move made this my largest position and generally when that happens, it's a good idea to consider trimming back on size in efforts to rebalance the portfolio, especially if you can't find any corroborating news to support the move that would lead you to expect further immediate upside.  That said, Zilliqa is still early stage, and if they can prove a successful scalability technique through their sharding process as adopters begin to use the platform, I think it can continue to move over time.  Hence why it is still one of my largest positions.

Current holdings:
  • NEO 13%
  • ZIL 11%
  • XMR 10%
  • BTC 10%
  • ADA 9%
  • NEBL 8%
  • VEN 6%
  • t0 5%*
  • NCT 5%
  • XTZ 5%*
  • RHOC 4%
  • OMG 4%
  • XLM 3%
  • ETH 3%
  • NAS 2%
  • PROP < 1%*
  • ZAP < 1%
  • POLY < 1%

    *Unlisted/ICO stage equivalent investment value


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #25165525 - 04/25/18 08:30 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Nice to see the head of the International Monetary Fund making positive remarks on the space:


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: mndfreeze]
    #25166382 - 04/26/18 08:39 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

No meaningful news on TRX outside of the Bittrex listing.  Low nominal value cryptos tend to attract a disproportionate level of buying interest during periods of accelerated positive sentiment in the sector generally.  They also tend to fall just as fast when sentiment turns.  If you're day trading, these can be a good place to focus.  I bagged a 7x on TRX over the New Year just this way, but otherwise TRX is of little interest to me.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #25177398 - 05/01/18 09:09 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Taking a position in ICX this morning at ~$4.15, as it's looking a bit cup and handle-ish and sitting at short term support.  Having successfully digested a big move from March 20-23 that had been consolidating for the entirety of April in a highly controlled cup pattern, I would expect some resistance at $5, that once breached should pave the way for further upside.  Initial target $5, secondary target $6, tertiary target $8.  If trading overweight, would recommend partial position stop loss at ~$3.70 (or if trading an ETH pair at around 0.00569).


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott]
    #25177569 - 05/01/18 10:40 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

ADA does appear to be forming a cup and handle over the past two months and I can see the case for the cup and handle on XLM as well.  For a proper pattern, the handles should continue develop with some sideways to slightly down trading for at least another few days, and both issues would need to move above $0.38 and $0.48 respectively to confirm a positive upside break.

I traded ADA over the past few days, selling 80% of my holdings at $0.35 after a couple days of outsized upside movement that looked to be stalling out, and fortuitously was able to put those funds back to work overnight on the retracement and retest of its short term breakout level around $0.32, thereby increasing my holdings by close to 10% on a unit basis.

Overall the market is looking increasingly healthy.  I am expecting BTC to retrace and test $8,000 before making an attempt above $10,000; so if you're looking for an entry, I would consider a BTC pullback to $8,000 that shows signs of buyers stepping in as an appropriate time to accumulate.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Lophosaurus]
    #25177956 - 05/01/18 01:59 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Regarding ADA and XLM, I do like these issues, but wanted to note that part of the reason I am focused on ICX today is because the market capitalization of the former are just under $10 billion, whereas ICX sits at a relatively small $1.6 billion, giving it more room to grow into a larger valuation with greater velocity.

I also still really like Zilliqa (ZIL), even as I sold a bit of my holdings last week at this level in order to rebalance my portfolio because, due to its rapid price appreciation of late, the position got too big relative to the rest of my holdings.  Valued at under a billion with a significant pickup in trading volume over the past couple of weeks in the wake of the launch of their public network.  These guys are focused on proving sharding as a viable scalability technique in order to accommodate thousands of transactions per second.  Definitely one to keep an eye on, and presently one of my largest positions.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott] * 1
    #25178370 - 05/01/18 04:38 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

today mylove said:
With this cup and handle formation on ICX do you see it as pointing towards an aggressive breakout akin to what we saw with EOS this past week, or slow and steady growth over the next little while? I ask because I noticed the volume (on CMC) shows it to be lower than what it was in previous days... wouldn't you want increasing volume as an indicator?




Decreasing volume during price consolidation is appropriate.  You want to see it increasing once it begins to make its move/breakout.  If you look at ICX over the past three months, you can see volume steadily declining as price pulled back through February and into the second half of March.  As soon as price started moving higher toward the end of March, volume picked up in a big way, subsequently entering a period of relative quiet as price retraced and rounded out into a cup pattern over the past month.  At this point, volume isn't particularly instructive since price hasn't broken out so there really isn't anything for volume to confirm right here.  It's also a good idea to look at a 10 or 20 day moving average of volume to get a better feel for how volume is reacting over time, as a longer term trend comparison is more instructive than focusing on today versus yesterday.


Quote:

SirShroomsAlott said:
How does everyone here go about trading? I know it can vary depending on market conditions but what kind of time frame are you aiming at before you make a trade, what kind of percentage gain are you going for? What timeframe on the charts you're doing TA on....etc.



How a chart sets up will dictate the anticipated time frame for a trade and what kind of gain may be reasonably anticipated.  However it is worth noting that in general, accomplished traders will not go into a trade with any specific percentage gain in mind.  Rather, the question that a good trader will more readily ask himself before entering a trade is How much do I stand to lose?  The answer to this question is based on the trade's entry point, stop loss level and position size.  If the potential loss is too large, this risk can be mitigated in a few ways:
  • Wait for an entry that is closer to a logical stop loss level where support should produce buying pressure on the price.
  • If you get the "can't help its" and believe there is so much more room to run even though you are entering far above logical support, reduce the position size so that if the stop loss is hit, it won't be a big nominal loss.
  • Don't take the trade.


As for time frame, the more time frames you can review the better...
  • Weekly chart: Decision time frame, where you want to see a long term uptrend in place.
  • Daily Chart: Can be used as a decision or action time frame, depending on your style.  A gentle pull back on declining volume to a key support level is what you want to see to prompt action.
  • Intraday: Action/execution time frame.  This really comes down to personal preference, but for crypto I've found myself checking the 12, 6 and 4 hour charts (and ultimately the 15 minute chart) to get a feel for reliable short term trending and bounces off support for my entry timing.


Remember that everyone has their own style, strengths and weaknesses when it comes to trading.  Some people like the fast breakout trade.  Some people outright chase momentum with blind abandon.  Some people who don't like to trade as frequently may seek out entries only after volatility has calmed down and there is a strong base from which to move higher.  Some take trades intraday, some take trades that last a few days to a week, and still some take trades that last weeks to months.  The bottom line is that most traders aren't good at making money across all market conditions or across all types of trades.  The longer you do this, the better you will be able to tell where your strengths are and most importantly, when you shouldn't take a trade because the environment simply isn't offering high probability opportunities for your particular skill set or trading style.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott]
    #25181380 - 05/03/18 08:17 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

In my experience, focusing on too many indicators serves to confuse more than help me in my trading success.  This is not to say that there aren't indicators that will compliment your trading style by serving as confirming signals, but the fact is that the vast majority of indicators are necessarily lagging indicators, based on data that has already been output, predominantly related to price.  Thus, I have found that over years of trading, I'll have a general idea of what indicators like bollinger bands, MACD or RSI may look like, just by looking at the price and volume of any given issue and not necessary bothering with the indicators themselves. 

There are isolated instances where certain indicators become particularly important, such as fibonacci retracements on S&P futures (the /ES) contracts, simply by virtue of the fact that so many traders and computer algorithms use this particular metric on the futures, it often becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.  And because so much money is funneled through the S&P, it has a ripple effect throughout all of the largest US publicly traded issues.  Thus, it can be important to look at the fib lines, particularly during outsized moves, on the S&P futures, simply to get an idea of where the market may experience a pivot point and then use this information in consideration of how to manage your individual trades, even if the fib lines on those individual trade issues prove fairly meaningless.

Generally speaking, in both equities and crypto, my go to indicators are simple/exponential moving averages, bollinger bands and volume in multiple time frames.  I will occasionally glance at MACD to confirm my bias for the strength of certain pivots, and ADX can sometimes be interesting in confirming the strength of any given trend, but there really isn't much to see in those indicators that cannot be gleaned simply by looking at the price action itself.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: today mylove]
    #25195409 - 05/10/18 11:49 AM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

today mylove said:
ZIL is going bananas today. Wowzers. Perfect storm of activity surrounding it. Felt inclined to sell half my stack today, timing was a bit hard since it just keeps going up...




Indeed.  I am away from my usual desk this week, but fortunately a fellow trader pinged me asking my thoughts about its parabolic move, which once I reviewed it, prompted me to unload half of my remaining position last night, almost right at the top.  These were my notes to the trading group:

  • 5/9/18 7:10pm: Zilliqa (ZIL) continuing to impress on a trading basis.  The issue was listed on BitThumb today, which appears to have catalyzed a significant move higher, up some 40% in the last 24 hours and bringing its market cap up to $1.6 Billion.  As it has once again become my largest position, it is time to, once again, scale back.

    Unloaded a second tranche (20% of my original position) here at $0.23.  This sale has been converted to USD for the time being, as I am spending the week at the beach and like the idea of having some dry powder on the sidelines.  Have a stop loss on a third tranche (another 20% of my original position), at 0.00002337 BTC, which is short term support (bottom of a bull flag) on an intraday basis.  If I don't get stopped out, this stop level will either be revised higher or outright sold on any pop I may notice before hitting the sheets tonight.

  • 5/9/18 7:58pm: Sell stop on third tranche raised to 0.00002385

  • 5/9/18 8:05pm: Sell stop hit.  60% of original ZIL position (purchased @ < $0.05) now off the books in three equal tranches at $0.105, $0.225, $0.23.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #25226003 - 05/24/18 04:24 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Just wanted to make a quick mention that I am not enthusiastic about going in heavy here, but selling volume did hit a pretty good peak yesterday morning and prices have stabilized throughout the past 24 hours on most issues, indicating that there may be a bit of respite on the horizon (... or not :tongue2:).  That said, I am adding a bit to my stack of ADA at $0.20.

The market is a bit like a rubber band that tends to move in extremes.  When it looks really stretched one way or the other, one would typically do best by taking the counter-position.  Don't forget to consider at least two time frames, one longer term (daily or weekly chart) and one shorter term (2-4 hour chart).  Short term, we look a bit over stretched to the downside.  Longer term, it's not quite so clear, hence why I would hesitate to slug around any big trades in the here and now.

Really want to see BTC hold $7000 as support here or the technical picture begins to look increasingly dreary.  I posted three weeks ago that I believed we would probably see a pullback to BTC $8000 before we would be able to crack through $10000, and that $8000 would have been an appropriate level to accumulate if we saw signs of buyers come in.  While we did see that on the 18th, the upside momentum was short lived and I am now looking at $7000 as my line in the sand.  We need the periodic lows on BTC's daily chart to make higher highs.  The early April lows were marginally higher than the February lows, but a break below the early April lows would portend continued bearish action.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Asante] * 1
    #25226654 - 05/24/18 10:18 PM (5 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
Quote:

geokills said:
I am adding a bit to my stack of ADA at $0.20.



At what point would you begin unloading the Cardano?




Opportunistically, as I did when ADA first reached $1 at the turn of the past year, although I never sold out completely and have only recently started to rebuild the position more aggressively.  Cardano is one of my core positions, so I am planning to hold a position in the issue at least through its primary launch phase; which I more or less define as the launch of a stable virtual machine allowing for smart contract deployment and interaction.  Of course, I will look to trade around my core position as opportunities present themselves.  It's difficult to provide a specific price target, but from a short-term perspective given that I loaded the boat here at $0.20, I would speculate that I will trim 10-40% of my existing position on a move back up toward $0.30, as a measure of respecting the ebb and flow of the price action, with the intent to reload should there be any subsequent and meaningful pullback.  How aggressively I trim will really depend on how constructive the chart appears to me, in light of the broader crypto sector as well as the development pace of the project itself.  With all of these moving parts to consider, you can see why I have a hard time being too specific.  Ultimately, if the team can continue to stay focused and consistently execute, I would expect the coin value to surpass $1/ADA again.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott]
    #25276256 - 06/18/18 09:49 AM (5 years, 7 months ago)

Classification as a security results in two dominant factors that stack the deck against low capitalized investors (which have comprised a significant portion of crypto investors to date), while also making it more difficult for crypto startups that want to get rich quick.

  • Increased regulatory compliance burdens:  These additional legal accounting and disclosure requirements necessarily cost the issuers more, requiring that a team raise, maintain and use capital for an accounting and legal division such that they maintain compliance throughout the process of their initial fundraising and ongoing operations.  This can be a major barrier to entry for small startups, but the upside here is that the generally improved transparency resulting from compliance can vastly reduce the prevalence of scam startups whose primary goal is to take the money and run.

  • Decreased pool of investors from whom to solicit contributions:  Generally speaking, early stage securities issuers raise money from private seed rounds that the public cannot participate in, and subsequently limit their securities offering to investors who meet the definition of accredited, which in the US indicates a minimum $200K annual salary or a minimum $1 million net worth excluding the the value of the investor's primary residence.  This restriction vastly reduces the number of people a company may solicit for funding.  The upside includes a potentially deeper support network for the startup, as they are forced to court larger equity investors that have the experience and relevant industry contacts that can help catalyze project growth and partnerships.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Lophosaurus]
    #25276290 - 06/18/18 10:10 AM (5 years, 7 months ago)

Stocks or bonds are examples of a security, however the definition of security is not so limited in scope.

The Supreme Court, in its 1946 decision for SEC vs Howey, developed a landmark test for determining whether certain transactions are investment contracts (and thus subject to securities registration requirements). Under the "Howey Test", a transaction is an investment contract if:
  • It is an investment of money
  • There is an expectation of profits from the investment
  • The investment of money is in a common enterprise
  • Any profit comes from the efforts of a promoter or third party

Although the Howey Test uses the term "money," later cases have expanded this to include investments of assets other than money. The term "common enterprise" isn't precisely defined, and courts have used different interpretations. Most federal courts define a common enterprise as one that is horizontal, meaning that investors pool their money or assets together to invest in a project. However, other courts use different definitions.

The final factor of the Howey Test concerns whether any profit that comes from the investment is largely or wholly outside of the investor's control. If so, then the investment might be a security. If, however, the investor's own actions largely dictate whether an investment will be profitable, then that investment is probably not a security.

Adapted from: https://consumer.findlaw.com/securities-law/what-is-the-howey-test.html


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: brk]
    #25331078 - 07/17/18 07:47 AM (5 years, 6 months ago)

Yeah, sheesh :rolleyes:.  I was gonna say callin' someone an idiot in this circumstance only really reflects poorly on the one doing the verbal assault.  I can understand the frustration, but come on guys, keep the trash talk and insults outta this thread (outta this forum entirely in fact) or I'll be happy to show ya the door.

Back to the topic of discussion...

As noted over prior months, I have a committed years long exposure position to various crypto assets and haven't taken many attempts at trading around these positions.  That said, if I felt underexposed to the asset class, I would likely be buying here.  The trader in me wants to commit more capital at this level, as volume has been steadily declining over the last few months of down trending price action, and the pop over the last 24 hours on better than average volume works to affirm bases at $6K BTC and $420 ETH.

I suspect, as usual, one needn't necessarily be in a hurry to accumulate as the formation of solid bases are processes, and if the aforementioned levels hold, the ideal buy point would be on a ~5% retracement (i.e. $6.4K BTC/$455 ETH) that ultimately finds buyers to push above $7K BTC/$500 ETH.  Understanding that a lot of people are burnt on the drawn out bleed we've seen throughout the balance of 2018, I figured I'd still give a shout as, although I could always be wrong, the recent action appears constructive.

The fact that CBOE, one of the more qualified suitors in the traditional finance space, has submitted a fresh application to list the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust Shares (which are backed by actual BTC, not futures), is likely to be a positive catalyst if given the nod by the SEC.  Additions of some prominent altcoins to Coinbase is also likely to spur some marginal interest.  Not to mention, the prevalence of "seller's exhaustion" and retail investors who have dropped out of the market over many months of negative price action does ultimately set the stage for the formation of a base and subsequent move higher.  Whether that happens this year or in 2020, we will see.

To be sure, there are still a lot of altcoin issues (the majority in fact) that I feel are likely to see their value disappear from the market entirely; but entrenched governments and financial institutions are waking up to the idea that the crypto space is an important technological innovation and will be here to stay, in one form or another.  Even the decades long running CFA exam has recently moved to include crypto/blockchain related topics in their curriculum for certification.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Lophosaurus] * 1
    #25331614 - 07/17/18 01:34 PM (5 years, 6 months ago)

Were I actively trading, I would've been buying last night (the post I made early this morning was in fact one I had disseminated to a crypto trading channel last night).  Hard to buy on the pop now though, as we are still mired in the congestion of the "I want my money back" traders.  The continued above average volume and move above the prior short term ceiling at $6.8K BTC is encouraging, but if you zoom out and take into view the New Year's peak and subsequent drawdown, we are probably getting close to the center of what will ultimately turn into a big bowl in the chart, following along the lines of the suggestion I made several months ago when we first blew off the top and I posted this image:

   


Volatility is to be the norm for some time as this market works to mature, so I don't think there is any need to chase pops.  What zigs will ultimately zag, and there will be considerable noise allowing for better entries into longer term positions.  Avoid the shiny object trade, and exercise discipline in your entries, unless of course you are strictly trading momentum, but in that event you had better hold a tight leash and keep your eyes keenly fixed.  I have considerably better luck trading momentum with instruments like NFLX off of its earnings miss this morning, for a 80% intraday gain using September $340 call options bought at the open :tongue2:.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #25332233 - 07/17/18 06:59 PM (5 years, 6 months ago)

Lookin' at the BTC chart again, there appears to be an inverse head & shoulders pattern printing from the second week of June to present.  On a measured move basis (given a neckline @ $7300, head @ $5800 --> $7300+($7300-$5800)), the short term upside target would be $8800.  I am not taking a trade on this expectation, only noting a common pattern that other traders may be basing their decisions/expectations on.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott]
    #25337472 - 07/20/18 05:44 PM (5 years, 6 months ago)

I don't see a head and shoulders on XLM/USD.  You can fudge one out of XLM/BTC, but the shoulders are too high (i.e. the difference between the shoulders and the head is negligible) to make it a relevant pattern, the timeframe is also shorter than one would typically use when identifying this pattern (generally head and shoulders patterns develop over a period of weeks to months, although there are times you may use them as an indicator in shorter time frames).  Further, with the swath down from the $0.31 high to this afternoon's $0.26 low, the measured reversal move would now be complete.  The only thing I see as technically significant on the XLM chat is the short-term triple top at $0.31 (or 0.000042 BTC).  A move through that level should be a buyable breakout.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Lophosaurus]
    #25350614 - 07/27/18 03:33 PM (5 years, 6 months ago)

The Bats BZX Exchange petition to list shares of the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust application was rejected a second time yesterday, however there are several applications pending before the SEC for various constructs of a bitcoin ETF.  The VanEck/SolidX bitcoin trust that the CBOE wants to list is arguably the more important issue because the application comes from a prominent and reputable exchange and the underlying product is attempting to address some of the SEC's concerns by incorporating insurance for all assets held by the trust.  If the SEC maintains its usual schedule, a decision on the CBOE listed VanEck/SolidX ETF should come on or around August 16th, but it is possible that they will delay or reject the proposal before that date, as they have been doing with several other applications for similar instruments.

Interestingly, Hester M. Peirce (one of the SEC commissioners), was supportive of a cryptocurrency bitcoin ETF and published a dissent following the agency's decision against the Bats petition yesterday:

Quote:

"I am concerned that the Commission's approach undermines investor protection by precluding greater institutionalization of the bitcoin market," Peirce said in a statement. "More institutional participation would ameliorate many of the Commission's concerns with the bitcoin market that underlie its disapproval order."




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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Lophosaurus] * 1
    #25367263 - 08/04/18 09:40 PM (5 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Lophosaurus said:
Geo, what kind of trading are you doing? Just staying in BTC or buying ALTs too. Do you see BTC going down to $5000. How low do you think these ALT coins can go? They should be bottoming out soon right?




Not doing any trading in crypto for the time being, and have not bought or sold a thing since I added to my ADA stack at around $0.19 a month or two ago.  I sold about 30% of my aggregate holdings into USD over the New Year, and while I did attempt to trade a bit in the following months, most of those attempts weren't worth the trouble.  I want long term exposure to the asset class, so I'm sitting on my hands and letting the market do what it does.  Most altcoins are dying a slow death, as had to be expected given the pace with which new coins ICO'd every single day, not to mention the limited number of which have any active development whatsoever, let alone real world integration, or even enough network participation to remain technically secure.

Put simply, there aren't a lot of fundamental issues to examine at this juncture.  We are still in a highly speculative early phase of development for the asset class, and with the blow off top in January followed by a 60%+ retracement, there is understandably muted enthusiasm from retail investors, many of whom entered during the frenzy and have little to show for it, as the prolonged bleed in prices will fatigue even the most seasoned of investors.

I planned my trade and I am trading my plan.  Which is to say, I am not trading.  Inclusive of my Mt Gox claim that - although I don't believe it will be liquid for another 1-3 years - I do consider part of my long term portfolio, I am roughly 50% BTC.  I think BTC should hold a floor at $6,000, simply by virtue of the fact that it has held that on a few tests already this year.  I would be very surprised to see BTC move above $10,000 this year, and feel that we are due for more of the same sideways consolidation (albeit in a somewhat wide range of +/- 25%) for at least several more months.

I also believe that a majority of altcoins will be unable meaningfully progress on either their roadmap or their valuation, and that it is generally a good idea not to be heavily weighted into alts.  By virtue of the low liquidity and susceptibility to hype (and hyperactive trading), I'm sure we will see some remarkable pops in the altcoin space, but by and large, I expect alts to have a rough road ahead of them, with the majority of them due to bleed out until they cease to exist.

While this commentary may seem somewhat pessimistic, it is simply a reflection of not wanting to trade on the hope strategy.  The market needed to retrace some of its over-exuberance from 2017, and now it needs time to repair itself while working through overhead resistance and all of the persistent selling that has shifted market sentiment to the negative side of the spectrum.  I still feel like the space has great potential, and am encouraged by the way regulators are approaching it seriously while also generally taking a methodical approach through observation and discussion, in efforts not to stifle the industry's growth through knee-jerk regulatory burdens anymore than necessary.  I do think some regulatory framework is a positive thing, as there have undoubtedly been a lot of scams in the space, but it needs to be implemented carefully.  I also feel like the work on custody issues and increased liquidity from the inevitable launch of ETF's, as well as the big firms getting involved (e.g. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, CBOE, NorthernTrust, et al) show that traditional finance recognizes the potential of this asset class, which is a good thing.

But in so far as seeing another few months like Q4 2017, I wouldn't hold your breath.  We may see something like it eventually, but that was a particularly unique moment in time where the world was just beginning to wake up to crypto.  Even though most people may still not have any direct involvement with or holdings of cryptocurrency, it is now generally a known sector, so it is unlikely we will see a hype driven buying frenzy of that magnitude again.  The next leg up is going to have to involve more fundamental project integration and market penetration, not simply the active evangelism of big dreamers.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Middleman]
    #25369852 - 08/06/18 10:17 AM (5 years, 5 months ago)

I am sure some altcoins have a chance at success (I am toying with the idea of throwing a token sum at Hedera Hashgraph's ICO, although their $6B valuation does give me pause for an as yet unreleased product :toomuchacid:).  Be discriminate, and understand that the road to such success is apt to be long and winding.  Generally speaking, BTC is likely to lead the market for some time.  It's "dominance" - the proportion of the aggregate crypto market valuation that it accounts for - has been back on the rise approaching 50%.  This is a pretty big indication of market forces gravitating toward BTC as it is generally believed to be the best current use case for the technology today.  I have no doubt that innovations will come about that may gain greater adoption and thus higher value than BTC, but I don't think those innovations will be immediate, and in the interim, BTC will be the de facto allocation for institutions seeking exposure to the asset class, once custody solutions are firmly in place.  Nothing wrong with having some "mad money" in some speculative names, but I do believe the responsible approach to balancing risk is to keep the majority of your crypto investment in the majors, BTC and ETH.


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