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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #24960590 - 02/01/18 08:37 PM (5 years, 11 months ago)

Seeing some pretty heavy selling pressure across the board in cryptoland.  The Security & Exchange Commission and the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission have a meeting set for Feb 6th where they are focusing strictly on the crypto space and what they might want to do there on the regulation front.  Conjoin that with mentions over the course of last week's World Economic Forum from the likes of France and Germany encouraging coordinated international efforts at regulating cryptocurrency, in addition to remarks from India's finance minister making hawkish comments today regarding crypto being non-legal tender and "taking all measures to eliminate the use of these cryptoassets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payments system", in addition to the likelihood of more hand wringing during the G20 Summit in March... and we have what could be a stormy couple of months ahead of us.

I liquidated a fair amount of my portfolio over Christmas and New Years, and while it would always have been nice to have been able to unload more before a selloff like this, such is the nature of the beast in being a disciplined trader.  It would be folly to believe one could call the absolute top or bottom, which is why the consistently profitable investors tend to trade in scales, incrementally.

To that end, I am setting some lowball bids in my USD account just in case things get real sporty: ETH in two lots @ $633 & $497. XMR in two lots @ $182 & $134.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Lophosaurus]
    #24961543 - 02/02/18 10:04 AM (5 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Lophosaurus said:
Why would you get out with a loss?




In two words: max pain.  Our brains are pert near prewired to lose money in the market.  Typically, when we see something that is launching like a rocket and going up in parabolic fashion, we tend to have an urge to aggressively buy in because "it's just going to keep going."  In the worst case we watch it for a while hoping for an entry, but it just keeps climbing, and climbing and climbing... until we reach that point of max pain where we just can't stand sitting out on what is sure to be continued massive gains.  In buying, we often incorrectly feel entitled to the gains that we have witnessed from the sidelines.  Until we are humbled with the realization that our capitulation to buy marked the top, and that the entry we had for so long sought, was beginning to manifest before our eyes as we are left watching our account balance dwindle.

Conversely, when our holdings decline, we reason that "it will come back" or "I'm in this for the long haul" and continue along that line of logic, redefining our support levels to suit our ability to hold the position... until we reach that point of max pain where we just feel like we need to salvage something because this thing is sure to go to zero and be bankrupt.  And then, as with buying the top, our capitulation once we reach max pain almost eerily matches the max pain level of so many other humans, and the issue starts to work its way higher again, leaving us in the dust with less money in our pocket.

Trading has taught me more about managing my own emotional reactivity that almost any other experience in life.  And it's an ongoing process, as we all regress from time to time.  So in effect, trading regularly is somewhat akin to a mental conditioning regimen through which we better learn to understand our emotionally reactive inclinations, while ideally increasing our ability to make decisions without being at the mercy of our emotions.  Instead acknowledging and accepting the emotion for what it is, and utilizing it as a valuable data point in a disciplined strategy.

I noted last night that I was putting in some lowball bids.  One of my four bids got hit, for a fresh bag of XMR @ $182.  The icing on the cake is that my purchase marked the overnight bottom on Kraken for XMR and is already up 35%.  Being able to hit an exact top or bottom is not something anyone should expect to happen (although it's pretty cool when it does - but after trading for 15 years, I can count the times it's happened to me on one hand).  Generally speaking, in efforts to buy a short term bottom, I looked at the chart and thought to myself, where are the levels that I would really begin to panic if I were overinvested?  How do they relate to past support levels, and if those past support levels are broken, how far do I believe the reactive downside momentum will carry the issue?  Then, as a measure of discipline and humility, in making sure I'm not being overconfident in my anticipation, I split the order into at least two lots, because sometimes things can go a lot farther than you think they will.  While I would've loved to have bagged double the XMR I got @ $182, my discipline had me prepared to average down as low as $134.

This type of trading in wide scales is especially important in the crypto space, where liquidity can often dry up quickly depending on which exchange you are using, and thus the swings can be exaggerated beyond that which you might expect to occur.  Couple this with the fact that a large portion of crypto investors are relatively new to investing, and being able to understand the human psychology behind what makes people buy versus sell (i.e. max pain), becomes all the more important.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #24961588 - 02/02/18 10:42 AM (5 years, 11 months ago)

Of interest and related to the genesis of this thread, there have been some moves pertaining to the Tezos project.  The Swiss based Tezos Foundation that is at odds with the creators of the platform (DLS), have appointed a new board member who seems at least superficially well suited to dealing with some of the issues plaguing the current landscape of the project.  The Tezos community has separately put together their own grassroots "T2 foundation" to help create a unified voice of the community, and potentially negotiate control of the project, although this foundation does not presently have any contractual rights to the Tezos code base, nor the funds from the ICO that are being held by the Swiss foundation.  Nevertheless, it is not inconceivable that they could find a way to oversee the launch of the platform without the millions raised, counting on the platform's own viability and token reward system (10% allocated for the overseeing foundation) for management and growth capital.  Simply the fact that there is movement on multiple fronts does increase the likelihood that the project still has legs, which is pleasing to see.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #24969089 - 02/05/18 02:28 PM (5 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

geokills said:

I am setting some lowball bids in my USD account just in case things get real sporty: ETH in two lots @ $633 & $497. XMR in two lots @ $182 & $134.




Sporty times have indeed arrived, half of my standing orders have been filled.  XMR @ $182 a few days ago and ETH @ $633 this afternoon.  Open bids remain on XMR & ETH at $134 & $497 respectively.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ManianFH]
    #24980771 - 02/10/18 10:51 AM (5 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

mick said:
How in the fuck has Binance not done a better job of communicating to people. First thing that happens when this shit is resolved is I get all funds off these exchanges and into wallets.




It's always a good idea to take any crypto you are not actively trading and store it locally, off-exchange, preferably in an encrypted hardware wallet and/or coded paper wallets.  Of course, if you are actively trading this is not always feasible, and in such a case it is wise to distribute your holdings across multiple exchanges so you will not be victim to any single point of failure.  That said, in my view Binance did an acceptable job of communication through it's CEO's twitter account while this mess was going down.  The CEO has since recapped the entire oreal in detail to help us understand what exactly went wrong and how they approached it.

  • Binance Incident Recap published 2/10/18 by Changpeng Zhao (CEO at Binance)

    Binance Incident Recap
    Published on February 10, 2018
    Changpeng Zhao
    CEO at Binance

    I believe - in difficult times, one shows what they’re made of.  How a person handles crises defines his character; how a company handles crises earns their credibility; and how a team handles crises determines their future.

    Main Issue

    On Thursday morning, one of our replica database clusters failed over from master to backup.  This is most likely due to an unexpected hardware failure.  27 minutes later, the backup database cluster also had an issue and failed over again.  Shortly after that, data inconsistency alarms were triggered.  Upon investigation, it was confirmed there was indeed data corruption affecting 1.7% of users, and growing.  The data was corrupted in a way that none of our existing tools could fix.  New data generated based on top of this corrupted data would result in more corrupted data.  To limit the spreading of data corruption, we had to do a full resync of the database clusters, as soon as possible.  We estimated this would take several hours.  It was a hard, but necessary decision.  I gave the go ahead.  We updated announcements and pushed it out on social media as quickly as we could, then started the resync. 

    The resync was complex due to our large architecture, with heavy optimizations for trading performance, and in-memory data structure rebuild.  The full resync also involved a number of distinct phases, which made it hard to estimate the exact time it would take in total, until the last phase had started.  It was only after we started the full resync did we discover that the sheer growth of data in the last month would prolong the time needed.  Initial calculations puts the estimate at 10 hours.  One of our team members threw up, literally.  But the estimate was still off.  As time progressed, the sync was slowing down, putting the estimate at 60+ hours.  It was - not acceptable.

    While the first resync was still progressing, two new methods were coded, tested to the extent possible, and under the time constraints we had - started in parallel.  Both of them were indeed faster.  One of them saved us a number of precious hours in the end.  The process still took a long, long time.  The short version is, the full team worked continuously for 34 hours, overcoming many difficulties, to bring the system back online as quickly as possible.  And continued to work for many hours after trading was resumed.

    There were a number of lessons learned (the hard way), and items were ticketed as post mortems for future implementation.  They are being worked on, tested, and deployed as we speak, including nights and weekends.  Some of them are architectural changes that require trading halts for deployment.  We appreciate your understanding of this in the coming days.  They will be quick.

    Trouble Doesn’t Travel Alone (A Chinese Proverb)

    While we were busy restoring our system, our support site hosted by ZenDesk became unreachable, limiting our ability to post announcements, at the precise time when we needed it the most.  We believed this was due to a DDoS attack on their service.  It was tricky to announce this, as the FUDers would certainly exploit the situation to create a lot more FUD.  Having multiple issues / problems really creates doubt in people’s mind.  We (always) choose to be front and center about it - just be direct.

    Moreover, our home page, www.binance.com also came under heavy DDoS attack at the same time.  This is a typical case of when you have a car with a broken window, all the burglars want a piece of it.  Similar to people, how secure a system is, is often determined during crisis.  Luckily, security has always been our top priority and the hackers wasted their time, effort and money to no avail.

    Communication

    We know how stressful it is for our users during a time like this.  The best thing we could do while the engineers were working is to keep communications open. Throughout the incident, our teams maintained constant communication, with updates no less than every two hours.  With ZenDesk down, we relied on Twitter and other social media channels.  I sometimes complained about this, but now I appreciate there are so many social platforms out there.  I only had the bandwidth to manage my own Twitter account.  The team, including our Binance Angels (volunteers) managed the rest.

    FUDer and Scammers

    It was Christmas for FUDers.  All kinds of conspiracy theories were dreamed up.  Most of these guys were probably shorting the market at the same time.  Well, it probably didn’t work out too well this time, as the market didn’t drop during our downtime and went up 20%+ right after our recovery.

    There were many scammers.  The latest fashion seems to be: use a profile photo from a well know person, create similar looking handle, then tweet a reply to all of our tweets saying “if you send me x ETH, we will send you 2x ETH back.”  We must have reported 200+ of them.  Twitter was quite quick to disable those accounts. However, it must have worked somehow because they keep spending their time doing it.

    Financial Times (a smaller website than Coindesk now, by traffic analysis from Alexa) promptly carried an article about us, being down.  Nevertheless, it was true.  It also named us as the biggest exchange and brought a bit more of their traffic to us.  Thanks!

    The real helper was Mr. Mcafee, posting an obvious fake image about us being hacked.  Everyone pitched in to help defend us. He united the community for us, and rallied such support, during a time when we needed it the most. Sometimes, things that look negative are actually positive.  Looking at his previous posts, I now think he was completely innocent, but was just asking the wrong (or right, depending how you look at it) questions.  I can understand he didn’t read my article about FUD, how innocent questions are the best carriers of FUD.  Regardless, my thanks goes to Mr. Mcafee, I will buy him a drink if we ever meet.

    Compensators

    A few people asked for free BNBs as compensation.  Those are probably the same people who were still not satisfied after we have given a 70% discount on future trading fees.  Well, it shows they don’t trade much anyway.  We thought about going 0 fee for a while, but that would not work well for people who referred users to us and are earning a rebate on all trades made by their referrals. There is a balance to everything.  We have made the best decision we could.

    Other items during the week

    The stars must have been in some interesting alignment this week.  I sat through, in front of my computer, 2 earthquakes in Taiwan of magnitude 6.0 and 5.7.  Our hearts go out to the victims and people affected in Hualien City.

    I somehow got on the front cover of Forbes, something I had never dreamed of.  There were two articles about me.  Unfortunately, the main article about me also said cryptocurrency is a bubble.  So I choose not to tweet it (Sorry Pam, I am sure you can understand).  Luckily, there was a 2nd article, which I did tweet.  I was also shocked to see myself at rank 3.  Even with the limited data I have, I know for a fact I am not.  Don’t ask me who they are, I respect people’s choice of privacy.

    My twitter followers increased 3 folds, from 30k in 6 months to 90k in the last 2 days.

    Timing

    The timing of this incident definitely wasn’t good, with the Coincheck incident still looming, people were still quite edgy.  But we can’t control the things we can’t control.  We just have to make the best of the situation we are put in.

    Team

    Our angels, tech, ops, marketing, helpdesk, and even HR teams did not sleep much. They worked closely together.  There was no finger pointing - zero blame.  Everyone just wanted to carry a bit more of the burden for each other.  I did not ask anyone to work overtime (I never have).  Everyone just did what was needed.  It was surprisingly easy to organize internally.  If the above sounds like fun, send your CV and location (city will do) to hr@binance.com.  We are recruiting the best people for all positions, in an industry and company that has significant growth potential.

    Community

    Community is Binance’s strength.  We are so fortunate to have such a strong community behind us.  I would like to sincerely thank all of our supporters.  Binance is a still a young platform.  We have a lot of room to improve and grow.  We have a long list of improvements we need to make, and will quickly make them in the coming days. Unfortunately, some of them do require trading halts system upgrades. 

    We appreciate your understanding and support!

    CZ - Binance CEO


I still think Binance is one of the best exchanges out there, but do eagerly await the day that decentralized exchanges with atomic swaps come into their own.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: mndfreeze] * 2
    #24997462 - 02/15/18 08:41 PM (5 years, 11 months ago)
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Nice news on XRP there freezie, I haven't bought any since I unloaded my original $0.17 bag, mostly in the mid-$2's.  Might have to rethink sitting on a little stash again, but prefer to keep more powder dry for ICO opportunities that may present.

Anywho, just wanted to drop in to attach a copy of a 71-page report JPMorgan put out on crypto a week ago.  For anyone appraised and active in the space, there's really nothing groundbreaking in it, except for the fact that it shows the banks are definitely taking the space seriously, and expect it to be around for quite a while. 

One of the more interesting tidbits in there, in my view...
Quote:

The opportunity set around direct CC trading seems relatively limited, due in large part to anti-money laundering (AML) and know your customer (KYC) concerns, but in the near- to medium term, business models will likely need to evolve around the cost benefits of technology, including distributed ledgers.

[...]

Asset managers are in the early stages of cryptocurrency product development. There has been limited success in bringing products to market thus far. A leading issue is acceptance of the underlying cryptocurrency products, which yet appear to have the support of either the SEC or major distributors. While the recent launch of futures trading on the CBOE and CME would seem to help the fund industry with both improved Bitcoin price transparency and trading liquidity concerns highlighted by the SEC, we have yet to see product approvals and a growing number of funds are withdrawing applications. Security concerns have mounted in Bitcoin exchanges as hackers have infiltrated a number of cryptocurrency exchanges, generating large losses. Thus, while there has been a lot of talk about cryptocurrency funds, at this point in time there is little assets under management invested globally in such products.




That type of commentary (in conjunction with the tact that JPM opted to produce this report for their private clients in the first place) seems to corroborate that there is a lot of money (private and institutional) that wants to get in on the space but has not been able to find a way to, in large part due to fiduciary and regulatory roadblocks.  This in effect strengthens my belief that we are still in the nascent stages of this asset class, and it would be folly to dismiss its potential going forward, even as the gains we have already witnessed have been astronomical.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott] * 5
    #24997535 - 02/15/18 09:23 PM (5 years, 11 months ago)

Haha, I like koods, he's a smart guy, but even smart guys are wrong from time to time.  It was actually a few of his comments in the Pub thread that inspired me to share the JPMorgan document. :wink:


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: mapleleafmarijuana] * 2
    #25005348 - 02/19/18 10:45 AM (5 years, 11 months ago)

If you simply want some exposure to the crypto asset class, holding some BTC is fine, as presently most issues correlate closely to the movement of BTC.  Of course, it is always preferable to maintain some diversification in efforts to protect yourself from one particular issue failing (or missing out on a separate issue doing exceedingly well).  With only a small amount of capital to work with however, you may not want to diversify into too many different names, but I would suggest allocating between BTC, ETC and XMR as a baseline for diversification.  Each of these cryptos offers a unique feature; BTC being the largest and first use case of this technology and a popular settlement layer for value transfer, ETC being a "world computer" that can execute programming code as well as function as a layer for value transfer, and XMR offering a privacy layer for value transfer to ensure that all senders/recipients and specific transfer amounts are kept confidential.

There are of course hundreds of other interesting crypto projects out there, but most of them have very limited development and support, and if you aren't actively managing your investment portfolio or don't want to take the time to understand the depth of these projects, it's better to keep things simple.  In the event you do want to do little deeper research, here are the names I currently hold, which given that I am putting my own money in them, I would surely advocate as worthy of your consideration:

  • Cash (USD) 9%
  • Neo (NEO) 18%
  • Neblio (NEBL) 11%
  • Ether (ETH) 8%
  • PolySwarm 8%*
  • Monero (XMR) 6%
  • Cardano (ADA) 5%
  • VeChain (VEN) 4%
  • EOS (EOS) 4%
  • Origin Trail (TRAC) 4%
  • OmiseGo (OMG) 4%
  • RChain (RHOC) 4%
  • tZERO (t0) 4%*
  • Stellar Lumens (XLM) 3%
  • Lisk (LSK) 3%
  • ICON (ICX) 2%
  • Zap (ZAP) 1%
  • 0x (ZRX) 1%
  • Cobinhood (COB) 1%
  • Props <1%*

    *ETH equivalent of ICO investment, tokens not currently public.


I am actively bidding on some Polymath (POLY), a recent issue designed to assist companies in launching proprietary crypto assets as regulatory compliant securities for their businesses.  They are hosting in a conference at the end of the month with a lot of big players in the sector that could light a fire under this new token.  Who am I kidding, the fire is already lit, which is why the thing has been bid up.  I don't want to chase it, so my highest bid is around $1.35, although I would prefer to be buying closer to $0.90.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Middleman] * 1
    #25006606 - 02/19/18 08:17 PM (5 years, 11 months ago)

IOTA is intriguing, but they've had some buggy issues with their platform, from withdrawal complications to a less than user friendly experience for many who have attempted to utilize their wallet software.  If you want to setup a portfolio to "set it and forget it", I would think along these lines (these are how I categorize all the issues I presently hold, and intend to hold for at least several months to several years)...

  • Cohort of so-called stable heavyweights: BTC/ETH/XMR/NEO
  • Next generation platform plays: ADA/NEBL/VEN/XLM/ICX/LSK/RHOC/EOS/ZIL
  • Speculative utility specific plays: OMG/ZRX/COB/ZAP/TRAC


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #25012980 - 02/22/18 11:02 AM (5 years, 11 months ago)

Good news on the Tezos front, two of the prominent members of the T2 foundation that was organized by active Tezos community members as a "nuclear option" to protest the problematic management of the primary foundation and ultimately attempt to petition Swiss authorities to transfer rights to the project, have now been unanimously voted in by the primary foundation to take over management of the project.

Quote:

Tezos Board reorganized

The Tezos Foundation has unanimously appointed Ryan Jesperson and Michel Mauny to the Board. The two new members will replace Johann Gevers and Diego Olivier Fernandez Pons, who decided to voluntarily step down to optimally support the Foundation in the advancement of its mission.


The two new members of the Board will join Lars Haussmann, who was appointed to the Board on 31 January 2018. This new Board looks forward to expanding the number of board members in the near future. Ryan Jesperson will replace Johann Gevers as President. He plans to relocate with his family to Zug, Switzerland. In addition, he looks forward to assisting the Crypto Valley ecosystem and helping to further establish Switzerland as a center of blockchain technology and innovation.

With the appointment of the two new members to the Board, the Foundation is preparing itself to assist in the timely launch of the Tezos network.

Ryan Jesperson, who became a leading figure in the Tezos community in recent months, is looking forward to joining the Board at this important time for the Tezos project. «To serve the best interests of the Tezos Project, Johann Gevers and Diego Olivier Fernandez Pons have voluntarily offered to resign from the Foundation Board. They are committed to the success of the Tezos project and will continue to support its development towards a bright future. We thank both of them for their service.»

Ryan Jesperson and Michel Mauny, who will join Lars Haussmann as new members to the Board, are both accomplished professionals. Ryan Jesperson is a dedicated member of the Tezos community. Most recently he was the Chief Operating Officer at Divvy, a FinTech company. He received a BS degree, cum laude, from Brigham Young University and an MBA from the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. Prior to his work at Divvy, he helped launch the Self-Reliance Services initiative of the LDS Church and was an executive, turnaround specialist and tech entrepreneur in the healthcare industry.

Michel Mauny is a senior researcher at Inria (Paris, France). His scientific interests are mainly in the field of programming languages: design, implementation, semantics, static analysis and type systems. After his PhD at Paris-Diderot University, he joined Inria in 1985 and worked on programming languages, in the research group that designed and developed the Coq proof assistant and the OCaml programming language. From 1989 to 2005 he led the research team that developed OCaml.





Some secondary comments about the Crypto space in aggregate; The pull back here appears mostly technical in nature to me.  There was a cluster of price consolidation just below $12K in BTC and just above $1K in ETH during the second half of January after the blow off highs.  With a deep break to the downside following in early February, it is reasonable to expect resistance as we run into these prior support levels.  One would hope that the downside from here would be limited to around $9K on BTC and $800 on ETH and that we would subsequently zigzag our way higher.  But even in that somewhat rosy scenario, I would suspect several weeks if not months of sideways action before any attempt would be made at the all time highs.  Of course, sideways action in these markets can still produce relatively wide swings on a % basis, given the aggregate volatility of the space.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #25018035 - 02/24/18 09:35 AM (5 years, 10 months ago)

Rebalanced my portfolio over the last few days, opted to ditch Cobinhood (COB).  I like their incentive plan for ICO's and the platform is clean, but it just doesn't seem to be attracting much volume, the token value has done a complete retracement to its lows and there are so many other capable exchanges out there to choose from with more interesting DEX concepts in the pipe that I just didn't want to have this position dragging on and distracting me any longer.  I also reduced my exposure in Neblio (NEBL) on the minor pop we saw last week.

Proceeds from these reductions have been pushed into RChain (RHOC), Zilliqa (ZIL), Nebulas (NAS) and Polymath (POLY).


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Lophosaurus] * 1
    #25019572 - 02/24/18 09:07 PM (5 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Hey Geo, or anyone else, if you don't mind sharing I would like to know about what percentage of gains you guys are getting and if you day trade, swing trade, long term, or a combo.




I'm presently at around ~4400% (44x) my initial investment in the space.  Granted, I bought my first Bitcoin at some $200 and my first Ether at $11.  I don't day trade or swing trade crypto, unless the market is showing tons of froth, as it did in late December.  If I happen to catch an outsized pump in one of my holdings (like NEBL, which I accumulated at $1-$3 and then it hit $60), I will definitely take some profits on the move; but generally, I believe this is an exciting space with a lot of room to grow over time.  Because of its early stage, there is a lot of smoke and mirrors at play, hype and a serious lack of fundamental product to evaluate.  For this reason, I believe it is important to diversify into a basket of platform plays, as they are all hungry and gunning for supremacy, but there is really no telling who is going to come out on top.  Ari Paul of BlockTower recently noted that, although he isn't saying it will necessarily happen, it is possible that all the value in the crypto space may distill down to a single dominant player or players, and that player doesn't necessarily need to be BTC.  I don't worship at the altar of false idols or anything, but Ari is a smart guy and I vibe with the sentiment.  Check out this solid interview he gave just a few days ago:




Quote:

Sucks because it's hard to get instant buys unless you have a debit card which I personally don't, coinbase fucking blows and buying through a bank was over 11 days to receive the crypto




I consider my Kraken account a bank account.  I leave plain ol' USD sitting in there precisely to be able to take advantage of buying opportunities.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: encryptor]
    #25020557 - 02/25/18 11:07 AM (5 years, 10 months ago)

encryptor, if you are trading with a significant amount of capital in your accounts, using two factor authentication over your cell phone is good, but Google Authenticator does offer an added layer of security and I would recommend using it.  I do.

Regarding Coinigy, it's a solid product.  I don't presently use it as I don't trade very actively.  I typically leave charts of XBT, ETH and XMR streaming on a monitor 24/7 from my Kraken account for a quick overview of the markets, and check in via my mobile iOS device in the HODL app where I have added a more extensive basket of currencies.  If you trade often and want the convenience of a consolidated platform with good charting, Coinigy is great.  I just don't find it personally necessary for managing my own portfolio at this time because I am not executing a high volume of trades with great frequency.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Stonehenge]
    #25021184 - 02/25/18 03:34 PM (5 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Lophosaurus said:
Geo, sorry if I already asked you this, what do you think about trading bots? I don't know anything about them really. Let's say you plan to hold 1,000 XMR for a year. If you bot traded it for that year you would get more bang for your buck right? Or are they not completely reliable?




I have never used a trading bot nor would I trust one.  I might sing a different tune if I were a quant programmer, but I'm not, I'm just a regular guy with a thirst for success.  Not a computer scientist and not an algorithmic programmer, and I surely wouldn't trust someone else's program with my money.  Your mileage, of course, may vary. :tongue2:

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
Getting back to registered investors, I do not see the advantage for the investor to go through the process. It removes privacy completely for one thing. Sure the sellers would like to have buyers go through a virtual strip search but they don't need that. Fuck em. What advantage does it give the investor? None that I can see and plenty of potential disadvantages. The ico can privately vet their buyers, if someone has the 5k 30k or however much it takes, what difference does it make what their income or assets may be?

You don't have to go through that when buying anything else for cash even for real estate.




It has to do with the SEC stepping up their game on regulation.  They have already gone after a few outright scam ICO's, which is not a bad thing.  They don't want to squash the market, but they also want to make sure consumers are not outright taken advantage of, which is their charter after all.  Rather than risk an SEC injunction, well organized ICO's are doing what they can to adhere to what little guidance has been issued on the matter.  Namely, attempting to adhere to AML/KYC regulations at a minimum, and in the event that their ICO token could reasonably be construed as a security (which almost all of them could be honestly), they are following Reg D capital raise guidelines, restricting their offering to accredited investors only, in order to avoid the additional red tape that would be required for a "by the book" registered security public offering.

Why would you as an investor go through the trouble to comply with these at times cumbersome requirements?  Well if you think the project has legs, your most favorable entry will be on an early offering round, and there is simply no other way to participate (unless you have a friend who has gone "by the book" and is willing to split their allocation with you).  So it's really just a matter of how deeply you want to play things as a venture capitalist.  If you want the best deals, you often have to give up some privacy and follow some rules.  By no means in doing so, are you guaranteed success.  Plenty of Reg D offerings end up failing, as with any new business venture... but it's just one of those things that we see happening in this space.  A new sector that has operated for years without regulatory authority, has started to attract vast amounts of capital (which is why those of us who got in early are doing so well), and with that increased capital comes increased scrutiny, such that any new offering will want to be on the right side of the regulators, in order to ensure that they can see their project to fruition without costly legal consequence.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: encryptor]
    #25021507 - 02/25/18 05:54 PM (5 years, 10 months ago)

Quote:

encryptor said:
I see on gdax the opportunity to buy lite coin, ether, bitcoin cash, and bitcoin.  Where can I get monero and polymath?  Sounds like I’ll need 2 trading platforms.




I pick up my Monero (XMR) on Kraken with USD, but you can pick it up via a BTC or ETH trading pair on several exchanges as PatrickKn noted.  You can get Polymath (POLY) through KuCoin and IDEX via ETH trading pairs, the latter of which is a decentralized exchange for ERC20 tokens, and while the volume is thin, it's pretty neat (but it will take a bit more legwork to get used to using as you need to deposit your funds from your own ETH wallet such as MetaMask into their contract wallet in order to trade).


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: memes]
    #25024959 - 02/26/18 09:07 PM (5 years, 10 months ago)

Interestingly, a well funded payments startup, Circle, just purchased Poloniex, one of the top 20 crypto exchanges.  Circle has venture backing from Goldman Sachs, and an unconfirmed internal slide regarding the purchase seems to indicate that they have fairly big plans in building out the platform for regulatory compliant mainstream use.



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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ashfiken] * 2
    #25032986 - 03/02/18 08:22 AM (5 years, 10 months ago)

The Tether issue is one that has persisted, but I'm not sure that it is as catastrophic as a lot of people have been making it out to be.  Let's break down the numbers for a minute...

Tether (USDT) market cap: $2.2 Billion
Tether (USDT) 24hr volume: $2.3 Billion

BitFinex 24hr exchange volume: $735 Million
Cryptocurrency 24hr market volume: $19 Billion

Bitcoin Market Capitalization: $184 Billion
Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization: $451 Billion


This indicates that the Tether product accounts for ~0.5% of the total cryptocurrency market, or 1.2% of the bitcoin market if it were used exclusively as a BTC trading pair (which it is not).  Those numbers in isolation make it extremely unlikely that it could be used to manipulate the price of BTC in a way that its detractors have claimed.  Of course, when you consider that its 24 hour trading volume accounted for ~12% of the aggregate crypto market trading volume, that does make things a little more interesting, as that is a significant chunk of aggregate trading.  Taken a step further and incorrectly assuming that Tether is only being paired for trade with BTC, it would construe up to 30% of bitcoin's daily trading volume, which is definitely enough to warrant suspicion of manipulation.  But the fact that Tether does over $1 billion of its daily volume with currency pairs other than BTC (typically ETH, LTC, ETC, BCH, NEO and a host of other smaller issues), indicates that at most, USDT/BTC pairs account for ~15% of BTC's daily trading volume.  Still a lot, but enough to push the price of BTC from $1000 to $20,000?  I can't say impossible, but I am definitely doubtful.

Couple that number crunching exercise with the fact that the cryptocurrency exchange business has been phenomenally profitable for its operators.  BitFinex (the associated exchange operator/creator of the Tether product), is around the 5th largest exchange on any given day by dollar volume, processing $735,000,000 worth of transactions in the last 24 hours alone.  With trading fees taken into account, this means BitFinex has taken in somewhere around $735,000 in commission fees over the last 24 hours (I can't know the exact number as their fee structure is variable based on trading activity and whether you are a market maker or a market order taker), but I do believe the assumption of 0.1% commission is conservative.  This equates to a over quarter billion dollars of commission income annually.  Why would BitFinex risk maintaining Tether as a willful ponzi scheme, which would in turn risk their entire exchange asset business, when the exchange asset business is the one that's really printing money for them?

It just doesn't seem logical.  Whether or not Tether has always had a 1:1 dollar backing, it would seem that at this point, with trading volumes where they are, even if Tether were an unbacked ponzi scheme, BitFinex could have paid back the ponzi and legitimized the product by now; which any sane person would do, given the level of secured income the exchange arm is producing.

All that said, I still avoid using USDT, and it still admittedly makes me somewhat weary.  But when I sit down and crunch the numbers, some of that concern is definitely mitigated.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ashfiken] * 1
    #25033844 - 03/02/18 02:42 PM (5 years, 10 months ago)

You're welcome ashfiken.  I was prompted to run the numbers after listening to the interview with Ari Paul that I referenced in this thread several days ago, as Ari touched on the same notions and I wanted to take a crack at the numbers myself to verify.  As an aside, if you haven't watched the interview, you definitely should!  It's an hour long, so grab a drink and geek out on some cutting edge crypto discussion. :tongue2:

In other news, the SEC is subpoenaing up to 80 crypto projects, presumably to keep pressure on the space in order to deter scam projects from taking advantage of consumers, while also to get a better feeling for how the businesses in this space are operating, such that the SEC can craft relevant regulation that may offer some measure of consumer protection and transparency without outright stifling innovation.

Interestingly, Monero (XMR) is really starting to fly on the back of this news.  I can't say for sure whether it's this news specifically that is responsible (as competing privacy coins like ZCash aren't enjoying the same action), but I would suspect that anytime regulatory bodies start focusing on crypto, it could at least add some gasoline to the fire.  XMR has long been a front runner in the privacy coin space, and something I've enjoyed holding ever since it settled in from its first major pop, having picked up my first bag at around $90 and offloaded it all around $360, only to buy back in on the deep dive last month at $182 and added to my position this morning.  It is one of the more technically constructive charts that I have seen in the space, and I think that for a project of its magnitude at its current valuation, it could have quite a bit of room to run over time.  I am not saying that I expect it to go up in a straight line the way it did last November/December, but I do think it merits a big slice of any long term diversified crypto portfolio.

On that note, here are my current allocations.  Of note, I have markedly reduced my exposure to TRAC, a recent ICO I participated in, eliminated my exposure to LSK, and also pulled back a bit of exposure on ADA and ICX.  I have shifted a significant amount of these assets into Monero (XMR), as well as fortifying positions in lower valuation so-called next generation blockchain platform tech by way of RChain (RHOC), Zilliqa (ZIL) and Nebulas (NAS).  I will likely want to rebuild my position in ADA again at some point, but the project is of such a large scope that I think I will have time to do that without missing a big part of any move higher, and I will always keep some on my books just in case as I do have mad respect for the issue... I just think it's somewhat richly valued for a product that isn't up to functional capacity just yet.

  • Cash (USD) 9%

  • Neo (NEO) 17%
  • Monero (XMR) 12%
  • Neblio (NEBL) 8%
  • PolySwarm (NCT) 7%*
  • Ether (ETH) 6%
  • OmiseGo (OMG) 4%
  • RChain (RHOC) 4%
  • tZero (t0) 4%*
  • EOS (EOS) 4%
  • VeChain (VEN) 3%
  • Cardano (ADA) 3%
  • Zilliqa (ZIL) 2%
  • Stellar (XLM) 2%
  • Origin Trail (TRAC) 2%
  • Nebulas (NAS) 2%
  • Zap (ZAP) 2%
  • Icon (ICX) 1%
  • Polymath (POLY) 1%
  • Props (PROP) 1%*
  • 0x (ZRX) < 1%

    *equivalent ICO contribution as assets are not yet public


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Tipote] * 1
    #25033913 - 03/02/18 03:14 PM (5 years, 10 months ago)

HPB is interesting, I have had it on my radar but haven't yet taken the time to fully appraise myself of the project, hence why I have no position at the moment.  I don't know anything about TNC.

As for Mt Gox, the latest would be the Examiner's Report that was submitted to the Tokyo District Court on Feb 28th, the conslusion as follows:
Quote:

The Examiner considers that MTGOX does not fall under Article 25, Items 2 to 4 of the Civil Rehabilitation Act. However, this conclusion assumes that the following measures are taken before the decision to commence the rehabilitation proceedings (in other words, the discontinuation of the bankruptcy proceedings), that ensure the benefits of the bankruptcy creditors (especially those having monetary claims corresponding to bankruptcy claims) who filed proofs of claims in the bankruptcy proceedings of MTGOX.  Those benefits are the benefits already expected to be obtained in terms of the bankruptcy proceedings, considering the size of the bankruptcy estate formed up to the present time.

The court has not decided whether or not CR shall commence; however, pursuant to the report, we expect that the court will issue an order to commence CR, with the condition that Mt. Gox will take measures to ensure the benefits of the bankruptcy creditors. We do not have any information concerning the details of such measures, but we will inform you of it when we have received it.




I contributed to be a part of the creditors group at https://www.mtgoxlegal.com - which has active community forums that can keep you fully up to date on the proceedings of our particular legal team as well as the known tactics of other major legal teams involved in the issue.  The managing head of the MtGoxLegal group interprets the above Examiner's conclusion as follows:
Quote:

They way I understand this, this is about as good news as we could have hoped for, but there’s a few hurdles here:

Firstly the court has to agree with the recommendation. I’d be surprised if they didn’t. They appointed Ito, so it would be weird if they went against the adviser they appointed. But there might be appeals. - Perhaps from the Trustee of Tibanne or of Mark’s estate. None the less my feeling is the recommendation will be robust enough and the worst case scenario is that the decision gets delayed in a protracted legal argument.

Secondly, measures have to be taken before CR can be approved. My reading is that this means cash claims have to be settled. I suspect this might be dependent on Coinlab. So again a protracted wait before we can move forward.




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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: SirShroomsAlott] * 2
    #25035079 - 03/03/18 02:13 AM (5 years, 10 months ago)

If this is your first tax year filing income that wasn't otherwise reported via a W2, don't worry.  Just calculate your short-term (<12 mo) or long term (>12mo) gain/loss and include that on your tax return as a capital gain/loss.  There is no reason to prepay the IRS for whatever gains you have during the current year, unless they are annual gains you anticipate receiving on a regular basis.  Figure out what you earned over the last tax period and pay accordingly.  Only if you anticipate that you will earn the same income in the following year should you prepay a deposit via an -ES form (typically the rule is to follow the prior year, so if you haven't garnered investment gains in the prior year, don't worry about making early payments, just pay those taxes when they are due).  In either case, it all balances out, as if you overestimate, it is deducted from you following year's tax dues.  If you underestimate, the worst case is typically whatever is owed + 10% penalty.


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