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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28625809 - 01/18/24 11:16 AM (10 days, 7 hours ago) |
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SOL starting to look like it's morphing from a pennant flag into now forming the base of a cup & handle, which if it plays out in a nice and symmetrical way, would have us building the handle in early February. Just conjecture of course, but we've been printing the left side of the "rounded bottom" cup for the last 3 weeks or so. Was hoping for a quicker breakout from the pennant, but I guess that's not in the cards. Gotta take what the market gives you.

Adding some more SOL here at $94.75. Have now bought back everything I sold between $102-$120.
BTC under the 50 day, not a good look, but still in sideways consolidation.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28625939 - 01/18/24 01:41 PM (10 days, 4 hours ago) |
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The last few days, Grayscale has been sending ~$1B of Bitcoin to Coinbase. They are almost assuredly a big seller that is driving price down, as folks unwind their arbitrage profits from the deep 40%+ discount GBTC shares were trading at last year, including other folks walking away from their 1.5% management fee in exchange for the very low cost ETF’s that just launched. Because the ETF issuers have to deal with up to two day cash settlement periods, they may not be as efficient in buying spot Bitcoin, and/or can see the downward pressure created by Grayscale’s redemptions and are waiting for lower prices to accumulate for their funds.
You can watch Grayscale’s Bitcoin moves here: https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/grayscale
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] 1
#28626044 - 01/18/24 03:15 PM (10 days, 3 hours ago) |
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For the HODL'ers among us 
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28627008 - 01/19/24 10:31 AM (9 days, 7 hours ago) |
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Grayscale continuing to unload, sent another half billion of BTC to Coinbase this morning. This might take a while, considering they hold billions, and their fund incurs up to 10X the expense ratio of the other low cost ETF's that have recently become available, so if they don't lower their management fee, we might see close to the whole fund getting washed out. Further capital flow restrictions from banks that have yet to allow clients to trade the ETF's isn't helping the matter.
The only glimmer of short-term hope is that we bounced above $40K a few moments ago. A break below $40K and we might see a pretty quick mass liquidation event to flush leverage out to the downside.
I've been steadily buying more SOL, at favorable rates to where I sold north of $102, but still a waiting game overall. Hanging out one more buy order down at SOL $75 just in case we see a big flush, but that'll be the extent of my near term buying. Otherwise, ready to buckle up and ride the lightning, whichever way it wanders.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: gopher]
#28627239 - 01/19/24 01:28 PM (9 days, 4 hours ago) |
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Honestly gopher, and I don't mean to disrespect your considerations, but you're talking about volume that hardly equates to the value of a dinner on date night. When such a relatively small amount is involved, it doesn't really matter where you pull the capital from. If you need the $60, just take the $60 from whichever route has the least expense with regard to time involved and associated transaction fees.
Separately, here's a pretty informative video that helps drive home the impact of the GBTC outflows on market price here, and discusses some of the risks. Also, this guy's accent is just amazing.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: HomerSimpson]
#28628418 - 01/20/24 11:00 AM (8 days, 7 hours ago) |
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] 2
#28635529 - 01/26/24 11:26 AM (2 days, 7 hours ago) |
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Solana really doing some great things: here.

Added a little more SOL today. The fact that the recent lows didn't tag the bottom of the channel makes me wonder if we could see a bonafide breakout. Of course, we might still be in for that longer duration cup and handle formation I highlighted several days ago.
Quote:
geokills said: SOL starting to look like it's morphing from a pennant flag into now forming the base of a cup & handle, which if it plays out in a nice and symmetrical way, would have us building the handle in early February. Just conjecture of course, but we've been printing the left side of the "rounded bottom" cup for the last 3 weeks or so. Was hoping for a quicker breakout from the pennant, but I guess that's not in the cards. Gotta take what the market gives you.

Technicals notwithstanding, Solana is by far the most exciting blockchain project present day, in my view. Their level of active development, user growth relative to front runners like Ethereum, ease of use relative to speed and transaction costs, including forays into consumer grade tangible products such as the phone as well as the complimentary Solana based Helium token-incentivized distributed mobile/WiFi network, not to mention their forward thinking approach toward ensuring relevant compliance in regulatory burdensome jurisdictions through the implementation of token extensions (link at the top of this post).
I'm not one for hard targets, but I am loosely expecting Solana to move up toward $500 this cycle, and even that level won't yet bring it to parity with Ethereum's valuation.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ManianFH] 1
#28636796 - 01/27/24 11:18 AM (1 day, 7 hours ago) |
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Jupiter DEX on Solana flips Ethereum's Uniswap DEX in volume.

Solana daily active addresses... 'nough said! 

BTC daily active addresses also hitting a new high.
Interesting correlation between crypto and global liquidity.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ManianFH]
#28637175 - 01/27/24 05:04 PM (1 day, 1 hour ago) |
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Quote:
blackhawk said: Geo, what are your thoughts on the markets when we start dropping interest rates? There's only one data point for the pandemic, I'm wondering if we will start seeing corrections.
Corrections don't seem likely, unless we see expectations turn toward a longer than expected period of high interest rates due to something like inflation surging again. An interest rate lowering cycle (aka "looser" or "accommodative" monetary policy) increases liquidity, and the nature of extra money seeking to generate a return effectively works to prop up risk assets. Lower interest rates also increase any company's ability to either pay down debt or take on new relatively low cost debt to finance growth/expansion, further boosting the fundamental backdrop for equity shares.
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ManianFH said: Holy moly that correlation chart blew my mind. Why would they follow each other so closely
Same reason as above. If money is flowing freely, it seeks out opportunities to generate a return (whereas if liquidity is tight and debt expensive, any available liquidity is more likely to be used to pay down high interest debt without as much leftover to invest/bid up prices elsewhere).
Risk assets like crypto benefit generally when there is excess liquidity in the system, but there is a secondary relationship with bitcoin specifically, since it is considered "ultrasound" money that is not subject to government/central bank manipulation or runaway inflation, and thus when liquidity floods the global financial landscape, this tends to result in currency devaluation and inflationary pressure, as all that extra money begins to bid up prices of nearly everything in the marketplace from homes to stocks to eggs at the grocery store and most things in between. Bitcoin is specifically designed to be insulated from devaluation due to supply inflation.
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