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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Psyche delics]
#24830898 - 12/06/17 09:54 PM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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Psyche delics said: Do you guys think cryptocurrencies could collapse themselves? Too many on the market and all the alts and Bitcoin become worth less?
Without question. Anything requiring dedicated energy and willful intent from human beings can collapse. If miners and nodes abandon a project because there are better alternatives, the coins/tokens associated with that project will become worthless. Frankly, it should be a clear possibility that anything and everything can potentially collapse. But I digress...
There is a tremendous amount of excitement surrounding the crypto sector, it's just peaking its head into the mainstream and people are anxious to get involved in ideas, most without any substantive trial proving their worth or need. That is all well and dandy, and a big part of what drives innovation. But just as this flocking to every newfangled approach distributed ledger technology may allow, most early proposals will fail to prove themselves in useful/practical application.
Thus the importance of diversification in conjunction with diligent research and keeping up to date with the projects that make the most sense to you. As with any investment, you can get lucky, but if you have the discipline to stay on top of your money by knowing exactly why you are putting it where you are, and are able to identify when your thesis has a high or low probability of success, you will be able to stack the odds in your favor. Nevertheless, losses are a part of investing. Only fools and charlatans can claim to know with certainty what is going to work and when. The rest of us mere mortals must focus on risk management, understanding our investment timeframe, our tolerance for risk, the specific reasons we are allocating money in the places we choose, and when our thesis requires adjustment. This can only be achieved through study and constant review.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#24839725 - 12/11/17 02:38 PM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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For all the fuss about the CBOE bitcoin futures, it's really been a smooth rollout with minimal impact on the market. Volume could rightfully be referred to as abysmal, and given the ~8.5% premium (around $1400) for the front month contract (with only slightly higher premiums going out to the latest March expiry) at present, I'm not terribly surprised. Given the volatility of the underlying, I wouldn't want to commit myself to such a short term contract at such a high premium.
Levering up on a long position at the 30% margin requirement on the March contracts (which sport an ~11% premium) would be a bit more attractive, but I wouldn't want to enter a position like this unless I saw a significant short term pullback, and frankly I'd rather just play with real bitcoins, at least until volume picks up, because that 11% premium is bound to balloon amidst any major selloff, given the lack of participants. Selling the front month instrument as part of a covered call position makes a bit more sense, but even then, 8.5% for a month long wait on an issue that has proven its ability to move 20% inside of a day doesn't appear all that attractive from a risk/reward perspective either.
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In other news, YouNow's presale is on for their PROPS token. Presale buyers are entitled to a 20% bonus allocation. I think this one has potential, click here to read a balanced review of the proposition. Having an already profitable enterprise with traditional investors on board, alongside a six year old working product to build out from is a big plus. The token incentive for creators to hold their PROPS in order to boost their exposure on the video platform is a nice quasi-deflationary aspect of the system (one of the things I liked about OmegaOne, in that hoarding tokens provides additional utility to participants).
Granted, their video platform has not been growing wildly in the face of Instagram Stories and other live streaming offerings by the major platforms, but it still has an active community of millions and I think the PROPS structure will be attractive to people who hate ADs, a group which I believe is rather large. Accredited investors can participate via CoinList, unfortuantely the non-accredited presale already took place this morning via Republic.co and hit its maximum engagement in less than an hour and after crashing their website several times.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: qman]
#24840463 - 12/11/17 08:33 PM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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They appear to be a mining center running out of Iceland. They may do a great job, but there's too many variables for me to trust custody of my funds to an operation like that. For example, how effective do they allocate their resources when mining difficulty adjusts for the currencies they are mining? How is their sell side operation handled? What about security of assets? Frankly, their (apparently paid) partner Genesis Mining is the one I'd rather invest in. They sell mining contracts to retail investors, thus guaranteeing themselves a profit slice regardless of what their mining operation actually produces in the way of crypto assets.
I don't know, I just don't want to get too cute with it... and investing in someone else's mining operation is a bit too far removed for me. Much rather allocate an amount I am comfortable with and diversify through a handful of assets that appeal to me.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#24841553 - 12/12/17 09:29 AM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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Ether rises to all time highs, presently at $600, after breaking out of congestion between $400-$500. This on the back of news that Swiss banking giant UBS is leading an Ethereum-based blockchain platform.Quote:
"The news that Ethereum is being used as a base identity layer in conjunction with some of the larger banking giants out there is a positive ratification of the technology," Charles Hayter, chief executive of digital currency comparison site Crypto Compare, told CNBC in an email.
Markets have reacted favorably to the release of EOS Dawn 2.0, an important step along this project's roadmap, sending the issue to all time highs today after a prolonged cup basing pattern. Dawn 3.0 is tentatively slated for release January 31st. Might be worth placing some bids in efforts to get ahead of.
New issue trading today: WABI. Using digital ledger technology in conjunction with custom RFID identifiers to verify consumer product authenticity. Built in incentives for consumer to scan products in efforts to earn rewards, thereby providing additional geolocation and time data to secure the ledger and prevent complacency. Positive feedback from market testing thus far, mobile apps available in Apple Store, Google Play, QQ Store and Baidu Store. Presale price was $0.025/wabi (presently a 47x return). ICO price was $0.25/wabi (3.8x return). I picked up some today at $1.16.
For those who participated in the Tezos fundraiser, which is what initially prompted me to start this thread this past summer, the Tezos foundation is set to clear its President of allegations of self-dealing made by the project's primary developer, Arthur Breitman (somewhat odd that the Foundation itself is clearing one of its three members, and its highest ranking at that). The whole thing is a mess, with class action lawsuits against the Delaware based company that holds the intellectual property for Tezos, which was intended to be sold to the Swiss foundation for a portion of the fundraiser proceeds. Bitcoin Suisse notes that the funds remain held safe, requiring multi-sig authority to use. The $200-some million dollars worth of BTC and ETH originally raised is now worth over $1 billion, and yet the project is stalled due to infighting and the subsequent legal actions taking place. Disappointing to be sure, yet HitBTC futures for XTZ are nearing all time highs around $4 per coin.
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Edited by geokills (12/12/17 02:41 PM)
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: trendal]
#24843465 - 12/13/17 08:33 AM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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This freight train just keeps on chugging. Very impressive moves by Ether up to $700 overnight, Bitcoin in a holding pattern around $17K, Monero breaking through $300, and the most impressive move overnight, Ripple more or less doubling from $0.25 to $0.50. Ripple's pop is likely on account of a Ripple developer being hired at Coinbase, which could indicate that Ripple will be one of the new inclusions on the platform in 2018. Being the largest US exchange, this would undoubtedly bring new participants into XRP. There has also been some chatter relating to Amazon potentially interacting with Ripple as a foray into banking matters, but that is unconfirmed speculation at this point.
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Tipote said: did anyone here have money with mtgox back in the day? I expect claims will be paid when we are dying from old age.
Sure enough, I have a 39 BTC claim with the Mt Gox estate, frozen in time at a converted yen value of ~$18k. With around 25% of original assets recovered, the bankrupt estate initially needed bitcoin to be valued somewhere between $2-3k to pay out all creditor claims as accepted. With bitcoin pushing above $17k in addition to the newer airdropped issues like BCH, the estate now has $2-3 billion of assets in excess of all accepted claims. Sounds amazing, right? Well, the kicker is that Japanese bankruptcy law holds that any excess shall be distributed not to creditors but to shareholders of the company, in this case Mark Karpeles, the person who at best mismanaged the company into bankruptcy and at worst embezzled funds (something he is currently on trial for in Japan). Yet, he stands to reap a multi-billion windfall at today's bitcoin rate. If only bitcoin claims were left as bitcoin claims instead of being converted to the equivalent yen value at the time of bankruptcy, this wouldn't have happened.
Crazier still is that people who hold fiat claims are entitled to interest on their claim (interest paid strictly from bitcoin's appreciation in value), yet bitcoin claimants do not receive the same consideration. Simply stated, it's a shit show... but there is some progress being made. A not insignificant group of creditors, myself included, have contributed to a legal fund (MtGoxLegal.com), hiring Japanese representation to help unlock a pro-rata distribution of the bitcoin assets to all creditors, instead of dumping the excess back to Karpeles who effectively screwed us in the first place. It looks like the only way to get this to happen within Japan's legal framework, is to petition to take the company out of bankruptcy and place it into civil rehabilitation. A couple of large individual creditors made this request last week, which the Japanese court is now examining. MtGoxLegal will be contributing resources from our own legal team to formulate proposals for how it could work, since the original petition by the frustrated pair of large individual creditors did not seem to offer advisement for how the proceeding could actually execute with fairness, safety and efficiency. I'll keep my fingers crossed... what was an $11k bankwire to Japan years ago, could reasonably be paid out as an $18k cash return, and in the best case scenario will be returned as $100k or more worth of bitcoin. Needless to say, I won't be holding my breath.
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@geo, do you have any tips for spotting relevant news stories early?
I have a habit of staying on the newswires all the time due to my involvement in stocks. Now a days, I just add a cruise through CoinDesk and CoinMarketCap to my routine. If I notice something moving on CoinMarketCap, I'll dig a little deeper by visiting the project's website, doing some Google searches and often landing on the project's subReddit page or Telegram/Slack group. I also hang out in a private Slack channel for blockchain enthusiasts, some of whom run their own crypto hedge funds, others who organize crypto related seminars, another guy has a decent subscriber base doing YouTube video reviews on the sector, others who work in promotions for ICO projects and of course, traders like me.
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does anyone have opinions on litecoin vs bitcoin cash?
While I can see the appeal for these platforms given bitcoin's presently sluggish pace and high transaction costs, I don't find that either platform offers a meaningful utility improvement over the other, and would suspect that improvements in scaling proposals on other major chains may take away some of the fire we've seen propelling these issues to new highs of late. That being said, people will use what they know... and as more people buy into BCH and LTC, the network effect will be hardened, which will improve their longevity prospects. I don't think too much of them though, sold my BCH in the $450-700's and, unfortunately, never bought into LTC.
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16 coins are quite a lot to keep track of. Care to share what you went for?
My current allocations:- Ether (ETH) 28.5%
- Bitcoin (BTC) 17.3%
- Neo (NEO) 13.9%
- Monero (XMR) 9.7%
- Neblio (NEBL) 9.3%
- OmiseGo (OMG) 5.4%
- Ripple (XRP) 4.7%
- Cardano (ADA) 3.7%
- WaBi (WABI) 2.7%
- IOTA (MIOTA) 2.3%
- Salt (SALT) 1.5%
- VeChain (VEN) 1%
Total return thus far: 2350%
Invested but Unissued:- Tezos (~17% equivalent)
- PROPS (~2% equivalent)
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trendal said: Which exchange are you trading on?
- Coinbase.com
- Kraken.com
- Bittrex.com
- Binance.com
- Cryptopia.co.nz
- Liqui.io
- LocalBitcoins.com
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: trendal]
#24843612 - 12/13/17 10:08 AM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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There are some serious concerns about Bitfinex's association with Tether (click here to read more about that). Truth be told, I probably would have been a Bitfinex user, but when I attempted to setup an account, they were not allowing fund transfers to/from USD. Kraken is rolling out a new trading platform alongside their involvement with the launch of CME bitcoin futures next week, you can see a preview of the platform by clicking here. Although Kraken's current platform is crippled, I believe the work they are putting in will soon allow them to resume their status as a premier and trusted gateway between fiat and crypto investments.
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mick said: I am wondering whats up with Binance and IOTA being frozen. Purchased that weeks ago now with the intent to move it somewhere safe and its still just sitting. Can buy more but cant withdraw any.
There appears to be an security vulnerability with the IOTA wallet that needs to be addressed. Suspending withdrawals is apparently a protective measure until a working patch is put into place.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: trendal]
#24845836 - 12/14/17 02:14 PM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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trendal said: What do you think of Bitfinex?
I have pretty much always been with them, since I got into the LTC mining game a few years back. I kept my funds as BTC in my personal wallet, so wasn't affected by the hack last year, but I have been hearing other people say I should stay away from them.
The negative news flow on Bitfinex is pervasive these days... whether or not you can use their platform successfully, I wouldn't want to support them out of principle.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Mush 4 Brains] 2
#24848128 - 12/15/17 03:09 PM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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Mush 4 Brains said: What do you guys like to use just to check the markets out/coins you're interested in? Apps, sites etc...
For trading and finding entries, I will check https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ daily, paying particular attention to discrepancies between the hourly, daily and weekly return percentages. I'll often start by sorting the list by hourly-% move. Generally, if something is moving higher in the short term (hourly and/or daily) but hasn't made a large move over the past week, it will catch my interest as this could indicate the early stages of a longer term trend. The next step is to validate trading volume. If an issue shows a big move, it better be doing it on respectable volume or I won't be interested. What is respectable volume? I would say at least several hundred thousand dollars over the past 24 hours, but preferably into the millions (especially if the move is unusually large, which in this sector I would quantify as >20% within 24 hours). On that note, sometimes I'll just sort the list by volume to begin with and scroll down to see if any of the % movers catch my eye. Once an issue looks intriguing, I will click the "Markets" tab to figure out where it is being traded. If it's on an exchange I use, I'll head over there and use the platform's charting tools to further analyze the issue.
Here's a great charting website you can use without being an exchange member (it's actually the one Kraken is incorporating in the launch of their new platform within the coming days): https://cryptowat.ch/
https://icostats.com/ is an intriguing website to check out from time to time as well, in efforts to get an idea of which projects are attracting additional interest beyond their initial hype.
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Newbies like myself, starting at coinbase. Looking at the three options and thinking, hey bitcoin is super high in price, I'll buy some litecoin instead.
This dynamic is well understood, and one of the reasons I believe issues like ADA and XRP are getting bid up. If these low nominal value coins find their way onto Coinbase, it seems likely that crypto no0bs will want to soak them up. For those with a more discerning palate, who wish to become informed investors, it is worthwhile to compare the aggregate supply of an issue to the nominal unit price of the issue you are interested in, to get an idea of its relative value as well as its potential future gains.
Let's take Cardano (ADA) as an example...
The Cardano project leaders are awesome, one of the original founders and initial CEO of Ethereum, Charles Hoskinson, and another influential early Ethereum dev Jeremy Wood, with a concentration of project dev's from major research institutions around the world. The suggestion has been made that Bitcoin could be considered blockchain version 1.0, Ethereum as 2.0, and the goal for Cardano being v3.0; Focusing on scalability, interoperability with side chains, treasury systems and on-chain governance. If this team keeps their heads down and can deliver solutions to these problems, it's not difficult to imagine them becoming the dominant blockchain platform.
So what does that mean for the potential price appreciation of their coin? In this case, the float on the ADA coin is huge. 26 billion circulating with up to 45 billion max supply (these numbers are available for almost every coin on CoinMarketCap). So, you can't really expect it to get anywhere near the nominal $-value of something like Bitcoin, the current market leader, which has a max supply of 21 million. With some simple math [(21,000,000/45,000,000,000)*$17,500], we can calculate that ADA's theoretical equivalent value, relative to today's BTC price, would be around $8. Now it's no sure thing Cardano will succeed in the way that Bitcoin has, and even if they do, there will be more competitors on the scene and thus unlikely that ADA will receive the same "first mover" advantage of attracting money almost by default, that Bitcoin has enjoyed. Nevertheless, this is a nice way to give yourself some idea of where ADA's nominal value could go in the future.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Spiderbaby] 2
#24848151 - 12/15/17 03:26 PM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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Spiderbaby said: I'm less interested in holding large positions of crypto assets for a long time and prefer the day trading aspect.
How do you guys look at it? Buy and hold or anybody day trade?
The crypto sector is obviously getting a lot of mainstream attention right now, which is leading to incredible positive momentum. This is a scenario that lends itself to taking both a long term and a short-term view. Surely, the reason this space is gaining so much attention is because it is a new technological paradigm that clearly works to solve some important problems pertaining to trust/counterparty risk, efficiency as well as regulatory manipulation (with thousands of potential follow-on benefits). For this reason, I think it makes sense to take a long-term approach on at least a part of your investments. I'm not saying that it's right to expect the type of return we've seen from BTC, but there are a lot of neat projects out there that have and could see some serious growth. Of course, the whole shithouse could go up in smoke, but if this sector does disrupt the traditional financial ecosystem that our governments around the globe have relied on for the entirety of our modern history as a human society, this could rightfully be considered early innings. That said, there are still opportunities for short term trades as well (some of the methods which I touched on in my previous post).
To people who ask me how much to buy, or when they should sell, I always tell them that they need to answer two questions.- What is your timeframe?
- What is your "I'm wrong" level (directly related to how much money you can tolerate losing, i.e., risk tolerance)?
You have to manage your risk, which can be done by:- 1) Position Sizing: Buy less if you think you're chasing an issue that has already appreciated rapidly in value, and have a plan to average down closer to your ideal purchase price.
- 2) Stop Losses: Identify your "I'm Wrong" levels and make sure you set a sell stop below that level, so that if that price is violated, you don't convince yourself that "you'll just hold through this storm" and then watch your investment go down another 50% or whatever.
If you're buying something too far away from your "I'm Wrong" level, that's where position sizing becomes most important. By appropriately sizing position and setting your "I'm Wrong" sell stop, you will know with a good degree of confidence what you are risking in real dollar terms on your trade, and you will be comfortable with that risk. Hint: If you aren't comfortable with that risk, buy less or set your bid lower in hopes that it gets hit at a later time once the market froth has settled down. There are of course instances where you don't need to set a sell stop. If you know with 100% certainty that you have a very long time horizon because you want exposure to the asset over a course of years, not months or weeks, and you also don't invest more than you are comfortable losing, then you can safely ride the swings without breaking a sweat, even if it goes all the way to $0.
I kept my bitcoin off exchange for years, not only because of the memory of Mt Gox, but because I didn't want to be tempted to panic sell. I had a multi-year time horizon. Now with all the neat alts popping up, I have moved my BTC to exchanges in order to diversify.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Mush 4 Brains]
#24849539 - 12/16/17 09:53 AM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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Thanks M4B, being able to clearly share my thoughts and strategies helps me refine them, so I appreciate the inquiries as taking the time to thoughtfully respond to them can bring awareness to areas where I may need to improve my own discipline. 
On that note, for anyone interested in trying some short-term trading, WABI has been behaving very well since being issued on exchange just a few days ago. The project itself is not without merit, as they already have functional RFID hardware integrated with their blockchain via mobile applications for real world use (Read about it here). But it is worth noting that ICO investors have already achieved a 7x ROI, and pre-ico investors more than 70x (although only $300,000 USD was raised in the pre-ico stage so supply from those investors should be limited). That being said, the issue is behaving well, having doubled in the last 24 hours and showing signs of a bull flag that could propel value higher still on a short term basis. Trading WABI/ETH, presently at 0.0025 ETH, stops should be placed at 0.0023, with a continuation signal above 0.00269.
Honorable mention, Cardano (ADA) continues to trade well. And of course, BTC, now pushing $19,000.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#24854822 - 12/18/17 09:31 PM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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In the midst of the tremendous rally across nearly the entire crypto asset class that we have been fortunate to bear witness to over the course of the past month and especially this past week, I think it is a worthwhile endeavor to temper some of the unbridled enthusiasm that big gains may create, with a dose of skepticism and critical thought. It's a long read, but inclusive of viewpoints that any crypto enthusiast should be appraised of...
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I just think that ICOs are to the future of networks/investment what the Railway Mania was to the Industrial Revolution: a vast misallocation of capital arising from misapprehending the true utility of revolutionary technology and misapplying that technology to contemporary problems.
The ICO boom shows us two things.
First, that there is, in a NIRP world, enormous demand for higher-risk, higher-yield investment.
Second, it has shown us that blockchains (Bitcoin and Ethereum included) are extremely reliable distributed state machines that keep on ticking despite being subjected to an almost unbelievable amount of abuse and almost no active human management and oversight.
A ground-up, tech-driven reimagining of contracts, money and legally legitimate financial services is desperately needed and long overdue. My bet is that ICOs and speculative cryptocurrencies, as we encounter them in the wild today, will only be a small part of that.
The future application of these technologies – the persistent 100x, 1000x gains that change the way people live – will not come from shilling coins on Facebook. Rather it will come by combining the two truths about Bitcoin and systems like it to create new institutions and new products that comply with the law but operate automatically and extremely efficiently. Companies like the Coinbases and the Blockchain.infos will provide the UX and licensing; companies like Tendermint or Monax will provide the back-ends for this next-generation infrastructure.
The ICO bubble and its promise of cheap, quick gains is rightly the focus of attention for most folks at the moment. It is the promise of the greatest gains in the shortest time with the least effort. That bubble needs to pop before we can get down to business with the utility-driven applications of this technology. And pop it will, as surely as the sun rises in the morning.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: mndfreeze]
#24855607 - 12/19/17 10:42 AM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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mndfreeze said: this article is literally my exact fears that kept me out of crypto this entire time. What I'd like to see is a shroomery breakdown of some various cryptos that have actual good long term potential and real world benefit possibility. So much fucking hype in every circle I visit trying to find information its hard to tell who's a zealot and who's just jealous and who actually has information thats trustworthy, and I say this as someone who's career is IN computer technology at a senior level, so I can't even imagine the clusterfuck non-tech people have to deal with. Or the amount of blind trust they just shove out.
There is without a doubt, a tremendous amount of froth in the crypto market at present. That being said, it is a global market that can continue to benefit from a true paradigm shift in the way we manage trust of information and store of value. As someone who began accumulating from significantly lower levels, I have a hard time committing new money to the space right here. To paraphrase a comment you made in another post, there is a rising tide effect that is causing almost all issues in this space to defy gravity. That is not a sustainable dynamic, and you are right to be cautious because of it. Of course, you must balance the risk of buying the top with the risk of missing out on a continued frenzy (rational or otherwise) that pushes prices even higher.
The bottom line is that successful investing in any tradeable asset requires disciplined risk management, which is generally accomplished through a combination of position sizing and stop loss orders, as discussed here. You might also want to review this post for additional commentary regarding vetting your entries for shorter-term trades in the crypto space specifically.
To get to the meat of your inquiry, you can read a summary of my "Top 5" crypto issues from late November. I still believe that all of the projects noted toward the bottom of that post maintain their potential for longevity, although many of them have been bid up significantly since that post was made only 19 days ago. I would also add EOS to the list as a platform with a very dedicated, active team that has shown a disciplined fairness in the auction style distribution of their coin and is a front-running contender for offering innovative solutions to the scaling issues that inherently plague decentralized networks.
Lastly, somewhat off-topic, but interesting all the same, take a look at The World's Money Markets in One Visualization.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Bodhi of Ankou]
#24855629 - 12/19/17 10:57 AM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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Quote:
Bodhi of Ankou said: You're actually scared of volatility? 
I'm not sure if this question was intended to be directed toward me, but I will opine on the subject anyway. For active traders who understand how to manage risk, volatility is a playground. I love whipping around options on the the UVXY, a leveraged derivative that tracks movement on the VIX also known as the "volatilty index" which essentially tracks the premium that market participants are willing to pay for put options (downside protection) on the major indices. But for the average person out there, who may not have a tremendous lot of disposal income, or who simply isn't well versed in the ways of the markets, volatility can result in an emotional trainwreck that causes one to make undisciplined decisions, typically buying when they should be selling, and selling when they should be buying.
Emotional management is one of the most difficult obstacles I have had to surmount in my trading career (and I still fail from time to time), as we are literally wired to buy and sell at the wrong times. When you watch your account balance falling, it is easy to forget your trading plan or the fundamental reasons you may have invested in something, and instead move into a panic of capital preservation, only to note that you sold when you reached your maximum emotional pain tolerance, and that is often right around the time the issue turns around and starts to spike higher. One traders max pain threshold is often similar to another's, which is why big downward spikes tend to happen very quickly and on very high volume. The same thing happens when you see something that has appreciated tremendously in value (as we are seeing in the crypto space today). You've been watching something for an entry but it just keeps climbing, your emotions reach a fever pitch when it jumps that last 10% on huge volume and the fear of missing out results in you making an undisciplined or reckless entry under the false assumption that because something has gone up so much, it just has to keep going. Another instance of maximum emotional pain leading to irrational behavior. Just because you bought in, does not entitle you to the gains that have been born before your entry, and more often than not, chasing an issue in this manner will result in regret.
Volatility in and of itself is a part of markets that results from human emotions driving investment behavior (including the human constructs that are ultimately programmed into machine algorithms). Too much volatility, and risk management becomes considerably more difficult, as you need to widen your stop loss levels or risk getting clipped prematurely out of your trade. Most people, and if I'm being honest myself included, would prefer a stable asset that appreciates in value in a predictable manner. Unfortunately that is a recipe that is hard to come by, and thus as investors we must learn to deal with volatility, even if we don't like it.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#24860353 - 12/21/17 02:31 PM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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If we close red today, this will be the first 5 day string of negative closes for BTC in over three months. Definitely makes the market feel a bit heavy, but taken in a broader view, all of my other crypto holdings are substantially higher than they were a week ago. This dynamic is confirmed by BTC's market share dropping below 50%. There is a rotation taking place, and while this may mean that the 'high tide which lifted all boats' may be pulling back, I'm not certain that it is going to spell disaster for the aggregate market. Nevertheless, we have seen a very rapid rise over the entire sector this year, and so it would only make sense that the buying pressure is due to ebb a bit. Tread cautiously, this is not the time to chase.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#24864607 - 12/23/17 07:34 PM (6 years, 1 month ago) |
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Opted to take ~20% of my holdings off the table this morning. We've had a nice bounce off the Friday lows and I am not expecting an immediate rush toward new highs. ETH, XBT and XMR are all running into short-term overhead resistance and I'd rather have some cash available to take advantage of a continued breakdown to lower prices. In acknowledgement of how quickly the market can reverse and thus how difficult it can be to catch a quick trade (especially in the face of exchange outages during periods of high volume), I still have considerable skin in the game as I don't see any particular event that would negate the prevailing long term trend higher. Nevertheless, I wish to respect my trading discipline by capitalizing on a portion of the massive gains on my books, while simultaneously removing a measure of potential emotional distress in the event of a continued selloff into the New Year, as I step away from my desk to spend time with family over the holidays. Best of luck, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all!
Quote:
Enkidu said: I'm not really seeing any huge drops happening consistently though.
Maybe the charts im looking at suck or i didn't spend much time looking, but it seems like this was the first major drop, and I don't see any other major drops in the history.
If you're viewing your charts in Linear Scale, the recent drop will appear more subjectively significant because it is from a higher nominal value and thus covers move $-ground when it falls. However, on a %-basis, the recent pullback is consistent with bitcoin's history of rapid corrections that often fall between 25%-40%. Some chart software (including that at CoinMarketCap.com) will allow you to toggle to Log Scale, which gives you a better visual representation of the severity of drops over time, since a $0.10 move on a $0.20 issue is a whoppin' 50%, but when viewed on a historical chart in linear scale after the issue has reached $100, you can hardly even notice the drawdown.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Stonehenge]
#24889286 - 01/04/18 09:32 AM (6 years, 25 days ago) |
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Just popping in to note that I have been making some sales over the past few days. I got lucky with a standing order to sell an oversized position in XLM @ 0.0007221 ETH, right before ETH broke out to new highs. I have also started unloading my position in XRP (initiated at $0.17/xrp), first quarter-size sale at $1.19, another quarter-size sale at $2.80 and a third sale this morning at $3.20, leaving me with 20% of my original position. I have also been unloading TRX at $0.13 yesterday and $0.20 today (initiated at $0.035 during the last week of December), and suspect that I will be out of all but a placeholder position in this issue by the end of the day. It's been a good show, but I feel that it is due to consolidate after a 5x gain in less than a week.
I'm not sure if I mentioned it previously, but I have been using ETH as my base pair for several weeks now. Until BTC can resolve throughput/fee issues, I see little reason to use it as a dominant position over ETH, which has more use cases, is easier to move and holds a technically superior chart pattern. On that note, I've even sold a little bit of ETH back to USD during the recent run up. Over the past two weeks, I have moved ~20% of my crypto holdings back into fiat.
The only thing I have been actively accumulating this week has been EOS (@ ~0.010085 ETH). I am also trying to get in on the presale for ShipChain, although it may already be fully allocated; and intend to participate in the DADI presale or ICO later this month as well.
Another new issue known as Gems has caught my eye, which is working to streamline the "mechanical turk" style of work/request exchange via their protocol. You can join their Telegram channel by visiting the following link to keep up on announcements and community chatter relative to the project: https://t.me/gemsorg -- Thus far, they have a very high level of community engagement due to their intention to allocate pre-sale tokens to participants who actively help promote the platform. It is a somewhat unique approach and should help provide a good launch pad for the project once it goes live.
I will update with my specific allocation %'s in the future, but off the cuff, I currently hold the following issues listed roughly in order of size, largest to smallest:- Ether (ETH)
- Neo (NEO)
- Cardano (ADA)
- Neblio (NEBL)
- Monero (XMR)
- EOS (EOS)
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Ripple (XRP)
- Stellar (XLM)
- WaBi (WABI)
- VeChain (VEN)
- OmiseGo (OMG)
- ICON (ICX)
- Tron (TRX)
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#24889519 - 01/04/18 11:19 AM (6 years, 25 days ago) |
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ICX looks to be setting up for a breakout. Initiated position @ 0.007511 ETH, add above 0.0085 ETH, stop losses @ 0.0071 & 0.0068.
Added to WABI @ 0.00283 ETH.
Out of TRX @ 0.000207 ETH, buy order in to reload half-size @ 0.00014561.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ManianFH]
#24890024 - 01/04/18 03:17 PM (6 years, 25 days ago) |
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The stops indicated for ICX have not been hit, as this position was initiated yesterday evening. I suspect that this will become a core position that I will hold for at least several months.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ManianFH] 2
#24892067 - 01/05/18 03:05 PM (6 years, 24 days ago) |
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One other quick piece of advice, mick: Don't overtrade!
Money is made during the calm period of patience that exists in between the purchase and the sale. Hyperactive trading has lost me more money than I'd care to admit (a lesson I've had to relearn time and time again throughout my tenure in the stock market).
In a more specific market note, decentralized exchanges are finding a pretty solid bid here. Take a look at AirSwap (AST), 0x (ZRX) and Loopring (LRC). Careful buying into the strength. While I would recommend having one or few of these on your books, don't feel like you need to pile in all at once right here, right now. Build positions in names you have confidence in over time, so as to take advantage of market weakness, then scale out as the opportunity presents itself. Buy the dips, sell the rips.
My allocations as of this afternoon:
- Cash ($) 16.5%
- NEO (NEO) 12%
- Ether (ETH) 11.5%
- Cardano (ADA) 11.5%
- Neblio (NEBL) 9.5%
- WaBi (WABI) 7.5%
- EOS (EOS) 7%
- Bitcoin (BTC) 5.5%
- ICON (ICX) 4%
- OmiseGo (OMG) 4%
- VeChain (VEN) 3%
- Monero (XMR) 3%
- AirSwap (AST) 2.5%
- Ripple (XRP) 2.5%
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: LogicaL Chaos] 1
#24892126 - 01/05/18 03:31 PM (6 years, 24 days ago) |
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The dollar allocation noted is held in a domestic exchange account that I use as a gateway between crypto and fiat. I began scaling out of some of my crypto during the last two weeks as I found my aggregate crypto portfolio since inception up over 5700%. The cash is still sitting in the exchange account just in case we see some major price dislocation. I have a couple of lowball bids open on ZEC and XMR in particular.
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