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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Stonehenge] * 1
    #24603735 - 09/04/17 05:24 PM (6 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

thedeadwalkk said:
Opened up a margin position for 4BTC/USD on Bitfinex. Once the price rebounds should give me a nice chunk of change.



Hey thedeadwalkk, nice to have someone who appears to be more deeply involved with crypto fundamentals (i.e. programming on chain) participating here.  That being said, please be careful using margin, especially in something as volatile as the crypto space.  It's an easy way to blow up your account faster than you'll know :wtf: happened.  Crypto has been an incredibly strong asset class for its recent history, and while that is great for those who have been participating, it also carries the unintended consequence of making us all feel like geniuses.  All I'm saying is, be careful and don't get overconfident.  For my part, I do enjoy leveraged trading (via option contracts), but am extremely weary of margin trading.  Your positions can be unwound without your consent when the market whips unexpectedly and it can lock in game-over losses with incredible speed.

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
Its an excellent time to buy, geo grab it before the opportunity gets away. You can get back in cheaper than for some of what you sold. I seriously doubt coin will drop below 4k.




I'll always have some skin in the game, and as I noted last week, I have accumulated some of what I sold prior.  I have also diversified into some of the newer kids on the block, namely NEO and OMG.  My OMG position size nearly doubled overnight when a good-til-canceled order I had in @ 0.00175 BTC was hit.  However, the intensity of selling over the weekend has me remaining cautious.  There have been exceptional short term gains in the space, and I would be surprised to see a rapid vault back to all time highs.  Comfortable with the exposure I have, and will look to exploit opportunities on any exaggerated price dislocations to come.

For those wondering why we have seen a swoon in crypto this weekend, it would seem China's governing decision to effectively outlaw ICO's would be a primary underlying cause.  The SEC, including similar governing bodies in Canada and Singapore, have also been making some noise about ICO's and hinting at regulation on the horizon.  This has understandably sent some jitters into the market, seeing as the massive ICO boom of past months has required people to purchase BTC/ETH in order to participate, thus fueling the positive momentum of the crypto sector.  With a moratorium on ICO's in one of the world's largest markets and impending regulatory concerns in other major markets, this will have the effect of reducing short term demand for new positions (i.e. buying pressure) in the space.  That being said, some regulation will likely be a good thing, as it will require ICO projects to lay a stronger foundation for themselves, thus burning fewer investors with pump & dump scams, and increasing the likelihood of their longevity and success.

I am not a prognosticator, so I won't try to say where this will lead, but I do believe that the crypto space is one of the more exciting, and potentially most promising sectors to be involved in here and now.  Not for the faint of heart or those strapped for cash, but as I've said before, for those with discretionary assets looking for an intriguing long-term speculative allocation, this market appears attractive.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: deadwk] * 1
    #24605183 - 09/05/17 08:42 AM (6 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

thedeadwalkk said:
Was wondering, what are you favourite trading indicators Geo? I've been mostly using Stochastic, with a weighted moving average and it seems to have been working quite well. Since I started using these new indicators, trading was on average 10-15% better.




Truth be told, I have never actively traded cryptocurrency, it has only served as a part of my long term asset allocation strategy.  I was a relatively early adopter of bitcoin (initial purchases @ ~$300-$400) and ether (@ ~$11-$40).  The first time I sold any, was very recently a good chunk of my BTC @ $3900 and $4350.  I find the crypto market to lack the liquidity that makes me comfortable actively trading, as on any given exchange I track, the short-term volatility can be off the chart and the technology underpinning the exchanges fairly unreliable during times of high volume trade.  If I don't feel confident that I can get into or out of a limit trade quickly (i.e. minimal spread and quick execution), active trading becomes too dangerous of a proposition for my capital.  Thus, I haven't much experimented with using indicators to analyze the price action of various cryptocurrencies.

In my stock trading, my charts generally include the following:
  • 20/50/200 day simple moving averages + 200 day exponential moving average
  • 8 period exponential moving average on intraday charts for short term analysis
  • 2nd & 3rd standard deviation bollinger bands in any timeframe
  • Volume Weighted Average Price on intraday charts
  • Hand drawn trendlines in any timeframe
  • MACD & ADX to help confirm potential pivots
  • All charts displayed as OHLC
  • Advance/Decline, Up-Volume/Down-Volume, & $TICK for intraday macro trend


In my experience, indicators are generally confirmatory rather than predictive.  So for the most part, all the information you need is contained in a simple graph of the price action.  The various studies and indicators are most useful in making what may be subtle (only noticed by the most trained eyes), more apparent.  Thus, I do not place complete faith in any indicator, although I do use them as an aid to confirm whatever thesis I have built for any given position.  I also believe that one of the most useful things to do is to regularly view any given price chart in various time frames, to best understand where short/intermediate/long term areas of support and resistance reside.  An example of the typical 4 square chart layout I use when analyzing stocks, including all of the aforementioned indicators:

   


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #24613317 - 09/08/17 09:16 AM (6 years, 4 months ago)

I was asked about my general opinion on BTC this morning, and figured I iterate my thoughts here as well:

Quote:

The chart is strong as death.  With an intermediate view time horizon, it looks like we'll probably bounce around between $4,000-$5,000 for a month or two.  Declining volume over the run from $2000 to present day heights on BTC is of some concern, as it indicates that support (in the sense of the average cost basis of the crowd) may be farther away from the current price than would be ideal.  That's why a sideways consolidation period between $4,000-$5,000 would be welcome, in my opinion, as the churn can help raise the average cost basis of participants and create a base from which to move higher.

It is worth noting that from a chart pattern perspective on the daily, we have built a left shoulder and a head, which could telegraph a potential head & shoulders pattern.  I don't like to use chart patterns as predictive gospel, but it is worth keeping an eye on as many technical traders do pay attention to that sort of thing.  If we complete a H&S by breaking meaningfully below $4,000 on a daily closing basis, I would suspect a fast decline to test the $3,000 level where, absent fundamental market negatives, buyers could be expected to step in.

Frankly, the weekly chart is the one that scares me the most.  It is more or less the definition of parabolic, and those types of moves have, historically, never ended well.  Of course, I always want to temper my fear with the idea that this is a new technological landscape, that bitcoin is inherently deflationary, and that big money is (likely with some reluctance) capitulating and adding some crypto to their asset allocation.  Climbing the "wall of worry" is what all markets do, they just don't typically climb as fast as BTC has... and looking around and seeing constant headlines about the 1000%+ gains in crypto on major news outlets like CNBC, as well as the seemingly never ending "to the moon" posts across related forum discussions and even in this slack channel, does make me cautious as it can lead to a period of irrational exuberance that will necessitate a market correction at some point.  That said, irrational exuberance can persist for some time and there are always two sides to risk... The risk of losing your capital as well as the risk of missing out on future gains.

Alas, my crystal ball is still in the shop, but those are my thoughts, for whatever they are worth.  Best of luck to all.





In other news, there is an Initial Coin Offering by Kik (for which you must pre-register at https://kin.kik.com/register within the next day to participate).  Kik is a leading global chat platform that boasts an existing monthly active user base of millions, as well as having implemented in-app faux-currency "kikpoints" with some success over the past years.  They are unique in that so many ICO's don't have a product to stand on and are built around nothing more than a proposal, yet these guys have a proven product that has done quite well (although has suffered some marginal decline in usage of late).  The valuation seems a bit high at a proposed $1.25 billion, whereby they aim to raise $125 million through the ICO and allocate 10% of their total Kin tokens to ICO participants.  For a decent overview on the proposal, check out the following analysis: Analysis of Kin ICO - Decentralized Ecosystem of Digital Services


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Stonehenge]
    #24614716 - 09/08/17 09:00 PM (6 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Stonehenge said:
We have to keep in mind that there are constantly new buyers in the market scooping up coin. Many of these are in other countries; china, japan, s korea are all eagerly getting into btc.



There has been great demand from those regions to be sure.  However, as noted above, China recently halted all ICO's (a major driver of new money in the crypto space), and today there were whispers of going a step further by considering closing all Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges.  If this happens, one of the world's biggest markets will have a much harder time accessing crypto assets, specifically purchasing them with or converting them back into fiat.  Regulatory issues are quickly coming front and center, and as a result I think the upward momentum we have witnessed over the past year will face some headwinds as we settle out the year.  Could be wrong, of course, but those are my thoughts.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #24663758 - 09/27/17 09:49 AM (6 years, 4 months ago)

For the traders out there, NEO is looking positive, although you really wanted to be buying on the break of the downtrend line on the 24th (as a fluke, I added just a day or two before the breakout, since volatility had collapsed and it looked like we had reached short term price equilibrium).  The technical backdrop is still positive however, and for those looking for a passive opportunity to accumulate without being so aggressive as to simply hit the ask, I would suggest a ladder of GTC buy orders at 0.00740, 0.00650 and 0.00580 (NEO/BTC pairing values).  Unless there is an expansion of regulatory concern that directly affects the NEO platform, I suspect that the bottom is in and that this one is worth sitting on for the long haul.


There is also an upcoming ICO for Omega One that I plan on participating in.  This is a utility token and they appear to be going sky's the limit on fundraising, under the justification that they require a large balance sheet to facilitate their trade execution strategy without borrowing from customer wallets, in addition to surmounting the regulatory hurdles that they seek to tackle in order to attract institutional investors.  They are also somewhat cagey on their plans for ongoing token sales once the platform is live.  While the specific terms of their ICO remain veiled, their whitepaper tips their hand as to these motivations.

As someone who has been trading securities and derivatives for some time, I find the platform intent highly attractive, particularly with respect to their eye toward regulatory compliance, cross-chain and ultimately fiat transactions.  I like that members of the Omega One team have worked for traditional exchange finance on a large scale (specifically in building Fx trading infrastructure for a high volume client), and that seasoned banker John Mack (having worked as chairman and CEO for Morgan Stanley as well as CEO for Credit Suisse) has openly voiced his enthusiasm for the project.  I also like that projects with ancillary congruence such as Kyber began public trading this week at ~3x their ICO price and have remained fairly stable without coming close to testing the ICO entry price level.  Another positive tidbit has been the success of Binance Coin, an in-house token for a large Hong Kong exchange that, similarly to one aspect of the Omega One proposition, is used to settle trades at (generally) more favorable prices than fiat.

If Omega One delivers on its ability to service institutional investors with a regulatory complaint trading platform, the fact that holding a larger number of the Omega One tokens allows for relative priority in order execution is a nice value proposition.  My self interest in the personal use of the platform further drives my intrigue here.  Yet one of my key concerns is potentially unlimited fundraising and a team that, while considerably more attractive than 0x for example, is more concentrated with less depth than the team from Wanchain, all platforms that serve up some functional overlap.  As an aside, US residents are excluded from participating in the Wanchain ICO, otherwise I would absolutely be involved with them.

Food for thought.  If anyone else has been paying attention to these exchange program ICO's, I would be interested in hearing your thoughts.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: deadwk]
    #24676574 - 10/01/17 09:21 PM (6 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

thedeadwalkk said:
Very bullish on WTC (WaltonChain) as well. I bought in extremely cheap ($1.50) so I've been making a shitload of BTC swing trading it, and just holding it. They also won  the JinJiang competition, so they are getting a $1Mil grant. They also have some pretty significant talent on their team, including I belive a former VP of samsung.




Good call on WTC.  I had put in a GTC order for a chunk of WTC at 0.000310 BTC on Sept 11, but cancelled it several days later to divert funds into NEO :doh:.  A little frustrating to miss the recent expansion to the upside on WTC, but at least the NEO trade was profitable too, albeit much less so (up a little more than 50% instead of almost 500%).

I assume you participated in the NEBL ICO, which seemed to distribute tokens at just under $0.20 if you got in on the bonus round? The only other place I can see to secure NEBL is via Cryptopia, a New Zealand based exchange with which I have no experience.  I like the headline idea of Blockchain as a Service, but the team seems a bit thin.  Nevertheless, I see no harm in allocating a small amount of capital in efforts to diversify my portfolio.  Cryptopia is presently down for maintenance, but I think I'll stick in a bid for some NEBL @ ~ 0.000230 BTC.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: tito123]
    #24680976 - 10/03/17 12:55 PM (6 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

tito123 said:
Where do you guys find all this info?



Generally on a slack group I hang out on for blockchain enthusiasts, but I also happen upon the following websites fairly often:


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #24684739 - 10/04/17 09:29 PM (6 years, 3 months ago)

On a strictly technical basis, I like VeChain (VEN) and have accumulated a long position with an average cost basis of $0.32/VEN.  I have not fully appraised myself of all the fundamental details underpinning the issue, so this is a purely speculative trade based on a significant pickup in trading volume over the past two days and the first meaningful volatility expansion above the initial basing period created since the token hit the market.  Because of this, the position is kept small at ~3% of my aggregate crypto portfolio.

I believe buy orders filled near 0.00007 BTC will be rewarded, with the 0.00005-0.00006 BTC level serving as a secondary support (the bottom of which I believe has a low probability of being hit for an order fill).  Initial upside target on a breakout above 0.00009 BTC would be 0.00013 BTC, which if you get a good fill would indicate a relatively easy near double.  Buyer beware, this coin is new and thus not very liquid, which increases the risk of taking a large position.  On the other hand, the lack of liquidity can carry gains farther and faster than one may expect, should the train in fact end up leaving the station.  As such, it would not surprise me to see this hit 0.0002-0.0003 BTC (a roughly 300% gain), but given traditional analysis, 0.00013 BTC would be the more appropriate technical upside target.

An additional trade I put on over the last 24 hours is long NEBL, entered at around 0.0003 BTC on a breakout from a two week basing period.  I like the fundamental idea of Blockchain as a Service that is more developer friendly and widely applicable than traditional blockchain systems.  The NEBL token popped above its all time highs today, and I would suspect that there is a good chance upside momentum could continue.  However, again, this is an illiquid issue that I would advise caution with and not recommend chasing or purchasing in major size.  At this point, I would target 0.0004 BTC for an initial entry, and if it gets back down to test its base at around 0.00025 BTC, that would be an excellent level to accumulate.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #24705794 - 10/12/17 08:49 PM (6 years, 3 months ago)

Real quick notes on the prior altcoin trades in VEN and NEBL I noted above.  Posted this last Sunday to the trading group I hang with, my apologies for not including it here, but hey, better late than never!

Quote:

Both the NEBL and VEN trades I outlined last Wednesday have traded back into support ranges that call into question the original thesis for a quick near term gain.  There were some good gains to be had in NEBL for the nimble, but the subsequent weakness in both issues warrants a reality check... Due to the incredibly low trading volume, I kept my positions small enough that I'm going to hold them just to see what happens, but if you bought either of these on my recommendation in hopes for quick gains, I would suggest that you should be out of them by now and your money is best kept in BTC which is showing positive momentum.  At the very least, for short term traders, stop losses should be in place at 0.00005 for VEN and 0.00039 for NEBL.

I would also note that because VEN and NEBL do not yet have operative platforms, they are entirely speculative and subject to the whims of, at times, poorly capitalized traders.  It is for this reason that I am choosing to keep my small positions active, as I do like the ideas behind both issues and would like to participate in the potential market reaction, should these ideas reach their execution stage.





For the more important issue... the bitcoin bulls are back in charge!

For those strictly of a trading mindset, the BTC move over the last 24 hours that pushed above $5000 was on high volume.  This strengthens the theory that prior resistance around $4800-$5000 has now become a strong support level and it would be surprising to see BTC fall below it in the near term.  Thus, all trading positions should have stops in place at $4950 as their ultimate line in the sand.  For the nimble traders who went in huge on the breakout, a tighter partial position stop at $5400 would be warranted to protect profits and allow one to reload, should the lower support level be successfully tested.  Upside targets are anyone's guess, and I would contend that anyone attempting to place a definitive upside target is either a fool or a liar, neither of whom I would care much to listen to.  That being said, no one ever got hurt taking a profit, so if you just want to ring the register a bit, go ahead and do it, but I would still advocate leaving something on the table.

To opine a bit on the nuances of momentum trading... The best way to allow yourself to capitalize on high momentum moves like this, is not to set an absolute sell target, but to continually reevaluate your stop levels by watching for clusters of high volume trading activity, and setting a ladder of partial position stops at those levels (with the key being continual reevaluation so that your ladder of stops keeps moving higher in accordance with newly developed areas of high volume price clusters).  As support levels should always be given some wiggle room, a ladder of multiple stop levels using multiple support levels will allow you to continue participating without being shaken out of your entire position, should there be a quick spike through short term support that immediately reverses higher.

If you look at the hourly BTC chart, the breakout above $5000 was on volume some 4x higher than average.  The consolidation around $5300 over a period of several hours indicates that level as an area where some measure of equilibrium was reached between buyers and sellers, and a large volume of BTC changed hands.  Now that we have seen a meaningful move above $5300, one could reasonably expect that this level would be defended by buyers if it is again retested, as many of those who sold their stake will likely regret their decision and may want to re-enter at the level they sold in attempts to "do over".

Although there was some selling around $5200 that resulted in a short pause, it should be considered only a moderate to weak support level, as volume was declining and it didn't hold at that level for very long.  $5400-ish was where the initial run from $5000 was ultimately met with more aggressive selling (a red candle with volume roughly twice the average).  Price pulled back and meandered around $5300 for over six hours before breaking above that initial $5400 spike (on increasing/better than average volume), which indicated that buying momentum is still handily in charge of the tape.  Two of the most recent hourly candles successfully retested the $5400 level, thus $5400 would be my first partial position sell stop.  $5200 would suffice as a secondary stop as it was technically the first pause in the breakout, and sits just below the more significant cluster of prices at $5300.  Lastly, $4950 would be my absolute lowest trading stop at the present juncture as that would indicate a full retracement of the breakout.

[discussion derived from Kraken's hourly charts, which have historically been mostly indicative of the broader BTC market in aggregate]


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #24706691 - 10/13/17 09:30 AM (6 years, 3 months ago)

Followup note to the big breakout in BTC to all time highs yesterday, $5400 held as support overnight and we are again flirting with the all time highs.

The more interesting news this morning is that Ether is finally playing catchup, aftering being pinned around $300 for what seemed like an eternity (although in reality was only a few weeks).  I suspect many of the recent ERC20 token ICOs were selling into any moves above $300, and are subsequently more comfortable holding their remaining positions on the heels of the strength in bitcoin which is typically viewed as a key reference point for the crypto markets in aggregate.

  • Power move on ETH, breaking out on high volume from $300.
  • Current support for short term stops at $320 and $295.
  • Traders looking to go long who missed the breakout would likely target buying on a test of $330.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Sky Walker]
    #24758926 - 11/04/17 10:36 AM (6 years, 2 months ago)

And the hits keep coming :facepalm:


I do think that the Tezos platform still has a good probability of going live, even if we may see additional delays due to the infighting and litigative issues.  Frankly, I'm surprised we haven't seen more headwinds on the legal front with regard to the swath of ICO's that hit the market this year, so many of which have failed to live up to their promises.  Of course, the Tezos documentation (as with most well organized ICO's) contained such a comprehensive amount of disclosures and waivers, that it is clear to anyone who takes the time to read the agreements that the "promises" behind these projects are in effect only suggestions, and by no means guaranteed to transpire.  Nevertheless, I do hope to see the Tezos project come to fruition, and with a ~$400M+ war chest at present valuation, I see little reason why they shouldn't be able to overcome these near term headwinds, given time.

In other news, Neblio (NEBL) has been showing quite a bit of resilience in the face of bitcoin's seemingly relentless upside momentum.  All while many other favored ICO's have been under quite a bit of selling pressure on account of BTC's strength and the likely movement of capital into BTC in anticipation of a third major fork (SegWit2x) set to transpire later this month.  For those who are not aware, a fork occurs when an existing blockchain is cloned, with the new iteration implementing some tweaks in the protocol in efforts to improve the platform.  Because the transaction history of the original chain is preserved, if you own coins on the original chain at the time of the fork, you own coins on the new chain as well (this process is sometimes referred to as "airdropping").  Anywho, because the previous BTC forks essentially gave a free dividend to BTC holders, it is not without reason that players want to be holding BTC as we move into this next fork.

On that note, I am getting an itchy trigger finger to liquidate some of my BTC.  While I believe in the power of institutional money propelling the price of BTC higher over time, particularly on account of the CME's intent to deliver futures contracts, as well as potential ETF's and projects such as Omega One providing the liquidity necessary to facilitate big money movement; I also believe in scaling into some realized profits when the opportunity presents itself.  As such, I have some sell orders in on BTC @ $7500.  Not the whole lot, but a good portion thereof, keeping in mind I did most of my buying between $400-$2500/BTC.  On the short term and subject to change, I would initially be looking to repurchase these positions with a ladder of buy orders starting at $6000 and increasing in size down to $3800.

Coins/tokens currently held:
  • BTC
  • ETH
  • NEBL
  • NEO
  • OMG
  • XMR
  • XRP
  • EVX
  • ICO's yet to be issued: XTZ & OMT


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Stonehenge]
    #24759590 - 11/04/17 03:35 PM (6 years, 2 months ago)

To be clear, I'm not "dumping btc to buy shitcoins" - I am taking some profits on long held positions and maintaining that liquidity in fiat until I see an opportunity to repurchase.  No doubt altcoins have been suffering after a frenzy of new issues on lofty promises, most of which will fail to come to any meaningful fruition and all of which are the playground for rampant speculation.  Nevertheless, I do believe some of these projects will have staying power, and thus the diversification is in my view warranted.  Ether has indeed been dead money throughout the summer, and I suspect that this is in large part due to the amount of ETH raised through all of the ICO's over the first half of the year, looking to be liquidated.  No one wants to crash the price, but companies that raised tens or hundreds of thousands in ETH definitely want to dilute some of that crypto into fiat, and I would wager that this dynamic is largely what is keeping ETH pinned around $300 for the time being.

For what it's worth, I hit a near triple on NEBL, cashing out a 2/3 of my position at 0.001 BTC and buying it back at close to half that over the past week.  Furthermore, since Neblio is a Proof of Stake network, I am staking my coins for an additional ~10% annual reward.  Similar to the reward system miners benefit from, but without the egregious use of processor power and electricity.  The platform is intriguing and the coin has steadily been climbing the ranks with respect to the aggregate crypto market at coinmarketcap.com.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Antimatter]
    #24761285 - 11/05/17 10:51 AM (6 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

A number of you appear to be thinking Cryptocurrency is a short-term investment, is there any particular reason? Also, how are you estimating a cap value at x amount?



From my view, there is both a short and long-term perspective to be taken within the crypto sector, and this is what I have in the past referred to as "trading around a core position."  Whereas I do believe this technology is still in its infancy, and thus worth maintaining exposure to over the long term (which I would define along the order of decades), it is also important to be mindful that both hype/excitement and an absence of tools and historical data for proper valuation will contribute to a short-term tendency toward exaggerated deviations from mean fundamental value (i.e. rampant speculation).  The rate of ascent in the market capitalization of the dominant cryptocurrency bitcoin, and especially many of the newly issued token/coin projects that have yet to demonstrate a viable product offering, would not appear to be sustainable.  However, due to the excitement of a new technology, fueled by greed stemming from witness of the short-term returns that have been generated by some of the primary vehicles (e.g. bitcoin/ethereum), in conjunction with relatively illiquid markets, the bubble can continue to inflate for longer than one may expect.

Thus, I think it is important to maintain a measured stance regarding your own personal capital allocation.  Put plainly, this is a very risky time to be placing new bets, as an unprecedented amount of capital has flowed into the space this year, producing returns that are not often seen in any financial instrument or investment over such a short period of time.  Further, mainstream media has picked up on this, with regular commentary on major business networks such as CNBC, including major global exchanges such as CME and CBOE signaling their intent to offer derivative products on this new asset class.  Kind of makes me think of the old investment adage, buy the rumor and sell the news... and while there may still be a good amount of positive news flow on the horizon, there has been a lot of exposure already, as evidenced by the fact that one major bitcoin exchange (Coinbase) signed up over 100,000 new users in a single day earlier this month.

On balance, I believe it is important to maintain some exposure to this emerging asset class.  However I also believe it is worthwhile to take advantage of exaggerated moves in valuation by booking some profits when you perceive a dislocation between the asset's exchange rate and its fundamental value.  At the risk of sticking my neck out, I do believe bitcoin will be able to move from today's price of $7,500 to $10,000 and possibly significantly higher, however I think that road is a lot tougher than the one that has taken it from $1,000 to $7,000 this year.  Tougher and less profitable on a percentage return basis.  For my money, I liquidated a portion of my BTC holdings at $7,500 this morning and have placed buy orders around $5,000 to reload on what I foresee as a reasonable near term retracement.  I have also diversified into some of the altcoins noted in my previous post, as their value has been depressed toward more reasonable levels on account of bitcoins aggressive rise.

I would encourage anyone interested in these markets to read through this fascinating article that discusses some of the fundamental risks regarding investment in these new markets:


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: ashfiken]
    #24769447 - 11/08/17 02:25 PM (6 years, 2 months ago)

Most interesting about the SegWit2x failure news today is the money flow back into alts.  NEO, OMG, NEBL (my largest alt holdings), up between 20-30% on the news.  BTC saw an immediate spike higher, but has since retraced the breakout and is back in congestion.  The immediate retracement to $7400 should have acted as a springboard, but thus far that hasn't materialized.  Thus, I would not be buying BTC right here, right now.  The biggest beneficiary of any alt with decent volume would appear to be WaltonChain (WTC) with a ~50% move right back to the highs of its range.


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: ashfiken]
    #24771798 - 11/09/17 03:40 PM (6 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

ashfiken said:

Congrats geo on those % gains!

If I may ask where do you invest in those particular tokens are they all ico tokens? Bc none of them are available on kraken.. I know neo is and pretty sure omg Are too as they are developed platform/blockchain themselves yes?




I'll take the congrats on NEBL, as I pretty much top-ticked a sell on that one at 0.001 BTC and nearly doubled my position on the recent pullback (the 10% annual stake reward is a nice bonus to top it off).  Yesterday's spike in NEO and OMG really just put those positions back into my break-even area... they've been bleeding for the past couple of months, but I believe both platforms have viable futures along the order of years to decades to come, and I'm happy to let them ride.

NEO is its own independent platform, similar to Ethereum, you can read about the comparisons here.  OmiseGO (OMG) intends to offer their own independent platform for payments/currency exchange/remittances, however their tokens are presently built on the Ethereum blockchain and the first major application of their project won't be realized until early 2018.  You can read more about OMG's ambitions here.  Neblio (NEBL) is its own blockchain as well, focused on providing enterprise blockchain solutions through the use of RESTful API that allow developers to tap into their technology with familiar widespread programming languages.  Their blockchain is active, however it is still very much in development, read more here.

As for where to pickup these issues, you can view the active markets for any coin/token via CoinMarketCap.com; Just navigate to the coin/token of your preference and click the "Markets" tab.  For picking up some of the lesser distributed altcoins, I've used:

You can find a long list of exchanges here: https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #24799691 - 11/22/17 10:27 AM (6 years, 2 months ago)

Bitcoin continuing to hit all time highs, Ethereum creeping toward its all time highs and Monero blasting off to set all time highs.  Class action lawsuits against Tezos clouding its future.  CME slated to launch bitcoin derivatives (futures contracts) as early as December 11th, although that date is unconfirmed.  CBOE is also looking to offer bitcoin futures ASAP.  Accordingly to CBOE CFA Russell Rhoads:
Quote:

“The question I am constantly hearing is, “How will the futures prices relate to spot Bitcoin pricing,” and the best (and most honest) answer I can give is, “I don’t know.”  I’ve done academic work on the launch of new listed products in the past and prior assumptions about new markets often are off the mark.  I’ve heard arguments for the futures trading at both a premium and a discount to the spot price, personally I think the best strategy is to see what the market tells us when Bitcoin futures are available for trading.”


 

Some other interesting articles for the crypto enthusiast to peruse:


Just for fun:


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ManianFH]
    #24800098 - 11/22/17 02:33 PM (6 years, 2 months ago)

I suspect so, but won't hold my breath.  I think their biggest error was in having a Delaware (US) based company, Dynamic Ledger Solutions, involved in the ICO, as that opened the door for litigation based on US Securities laws.  On the other hand, they have a sizable war chest, and I don't think they'll go down without a fight.  Nevertheless, this wasn't how it was supposed to go, and that is unfortunate for those of us who invested.

Here's a link to one of the law firms attempting to file a class action lawsuit against DLS, you can put in your information if you would like them to keep you informed of how the case proceeds: https://www.hbsslaw.com/cases/XTZ

The first class action was filed by Taylor-Copeland Law out of San Diego, California, but they have not yet solicited class members for their case.


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: tito123]
    #24800146 - 11/22/17 02:58 PM (6 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

tito123 said:
Thoughts on monero? 100% anonymous and decentralized.  If btc becomes more mainstream and regulated, there may be more of a demand for a more currency that can't be traced.




Wanted to bring up this post from early on in this thread... and offer a mea culpa for having dismissed it! :tongue2::doh:

The ring-signature methodology for ensuring an additional layer of privacy in Monero transactions appears sound and well accepted, and market participants do seem to be appreciating the built in privacy feature as Bitcoin in particular gains ever more attention from global regulators.  I believe at the time tito123 made his post, Monero was just setting fresh highs at $60 a pop.  It subsequently took a 50% haircut over the next five weeks, but had a big breakout in late August that blasted it all the way up to $150 in short order.  I ended up purchasing some once it had settled in at around $90, and we are now seeing a new breakout to all time highs in the issue this week.  I would have a hard time buying it here at $170, but am happy to be holding it.  For those looking to buy, I would target an entry with bids somewhere around $125-$135.


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Psyche delics]
    #24816475 - 11/30/17 10:09 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Volatility is endemic to the crypto space.  It is an emerging sector and market penetration is still relatively small with respect to the financial market in aggregate.  Short term swings of ~30% have been commonplace since Bitcoin's inception.  Thus, you have to ask yourself two important questions:
  • What is your thesis/outlook on bitcoin?

  • What is your investment timeframe?


For my part, I believe Bitcoin is going to remain an important settlement layer for value in the crypto sector in the foreseeable future.  I believe this because it is the first proof of concept of a trustless cryptographic based distributed ledger system, thus being a leader in terms of initial adoption rates, and because other projects have been using its ledger to airdrop new variants such as Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Stellar Lumens, etc., which has provided dividends to holders, thus encouraging people to maintain some exposure to what is presently the market leader, and will always be the market genesis.

The second question is trickier.  I have funds involved that I do not intend to touch for years, but I respect the parabolic ascent that bitcoin has enjoyed this year, and thus have reduced some of my exposure with the intent to rebuild the position on any meaningful pullback (which in the case of bitcoin volatility could reasonably be considered a crash).  Surely the $10K level gives many early adopters a reason to take some profits.  But ultimately, the bitcoin market is limited and deflationary by design, so it's hard to argue with the thesis that it will continue to appreciate in value relative to fiat, as fiat holders want to diversify their exposure and demand increases on a relatively static supply.  That being said, it could well be ahead of itself here, as rarely does anything appreciate in value so quickly as bitcoin has.  There is also the risk of miners abandoning the project once all coins have been minted, or if the scalability issue proves too difficult to surmount with consensus, thus dividing nodes/miners to such an extent as to crush confidence.  Even farther out is the outlier event of quantum computing coming into its own and proving its ability to break the cryptographic standards upon which present day distributed ledgers are built.

A lot of things could go wrong, and a lot of things could go right for bitcoin.  It seems to be that we will continue to see big swings in the value of bitcoin relative to fiat, as attempts at regulation and various arguments about the implementation of various improvement proposals continue in the future.  If you can stomach the churn, and haven't invested more money than you can afford to lose, just stash it away and let the market develop.  If you are overexposed, take some profits so you can rest easy.  Surely, the %-gains on the road from $10k higher will be a lot harder fought than those from $1k.  Also, consider diversifying a portion of your crypto assets, as the technology is likely here to stay, but today's winners could be tomorrow's losers, and vice versa.



Here's a copy & paste of a post I made earlier this morning on my favorite crypto issues to date:
Quote:

geokills said:
For what it's worth, my Top 5 isn't necessarily centered around cryptocurrencies specifically, but primarily independent platform projects that design their own custom use distributed mechanism, which in many cases extends well beyond a simple cryptocurrency function (but which all have coins or tokens available for use and security).

  • Bitcoin - BTC - It's the de facto settlement layer for the crypto sector.  Not really panning out as a currency given the lack of consensus regarding scaling in efforts to avoid high transaction fees and slow transaction speeds, even as there are a few potential solutions such as the Lightning Network being floated.  Nevertheless, it's the oldest blockchain, the first demonstrable use of the concept, and new developers are consistently using the original BTC blockchain to airdrop new coins in order to reach a diverse audience on day one of issue.  For these reasons, even if Satoshi's vision of BTC as a viable currency never pans out, I believe BTC will persist as a settlement layer; at least until quantum computing comes into its own, but at that point all crypto bets are off until they scale to a new cryptographic/technology standard.

  • Ethereum - ETH - A more functional virtual machine, distributed computing power that integrates custom programming ability for the use distributed applications (dApps) and so called smart contracts that eliminate counterparty risk.  Considerably more flexible than Bitcoin with more case uses and a large group of contributors who appear able to function relatively cohesively in developing and implementing improvements for the platform.  Widely adopted and actively used as a vehicle for third party fundraising via Initial Coin Offerings, with active work on scaling projects (e.g. sharding, raiden, etc) and increased privacy via the ability to use zero knowledge proofs, ring signatures and the like; the Ethereum platform has a pretty big jump on the competition, not to say they can't be unseated but right here, right now, they are a leader of the pack.  Click here to read a 3-5 year project outlook from Ethereum's founder.

  • Neo - NEO - China based virtual machine and distributed ledger project, very similar to Ethereum although functional in more widespread programming languages which could drive increased adoption.  Active community of developers and a present day leader of the pack, particularly for Asian economies.  Read more at Neo.org.

  • Cardano - ADA - An open source virtual machine project sponsored by IOHK with a deep team of engineers focused on taking a scientific approach toward aggregating the most successful implementations from the thousands of existing distributed ledger platforms into a cohesive and flexible layered platform that more adequately addresses scalability concerns with balanced consideration of regulatory and privacy needs.  Review their roadmap here.

  • OmiseGo - OMG - This is one of the more developed projects being built on top of the Ethereum blockchain, headed by financial services company (Omise) that has a strong foothold with existing operations as a payment gateway service operating in Southeast Asia.  Well positioned to integrate blockchain technology for greater efficiencies in their core product, which should start seeing real world use within the coming months.  Read more at OmiseGo.network.



Honorable mentions:
  • Monero (XMR) - For increased privacy and used strictly as a cryptocurrency
  • Ripple (XRP) - For formal banking implementation and collaboration
  • Lisk (LSK) - For implementing parallel private company blockchains using a proprietary Java based software development kit.
  • Power Ledger (POWR) - For energy trading, enabling consumers and businesses to sell surplus solar power to neighbors.  Real use case in Australia.


Super-speculative high risk "mad money" play:
  • Neblio (NEBL) - For implementing parallel private company blockchains using a multitude of common programming languages via Restful API's.  Similar to Stratis (STRAT).  Extremely small team though, extremely speculative.





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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: BayerPhi] * 4
    #24827531 - 12/05/17 10:12 AM (6 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

BayerPhi said:
Those of you who buy PoS (Proof of Stake) tokens instead of PoW (Proof of Work), do you claim the interest on your tokens for running a node for the inflation pool?




I am actively staking my NEBL for 10% annual inflation reward by leaving my wallet open on my desktop, which is on 24/7 regardless (this particular project just released a single command install for a raspberry pi node that will stake as well if you don't have a computer you leave on and want to save electricity).  My NEBL has been staking for a couple of months, and is right on target for a 10% annualized reward. :thumbup:

Another honorable mention for IOTA, which has not focused on marketing, but instead on building business relationships.  They just released news about partnerships with Microsoft and some other big players, and their coin has jumped over 1000% in the last month alone.  Platform features a unique blockless ledger called "Tangle" that sports zero transaction fees.  Certainly worth being a part of a diversified crypto portfolio.


Last thing, great read:
  • Don't Fall for the Hype: Why Bitcoin's $10,000 price Doesn't Reflect its True Value

    Excerpt: "People are hungry to be a part of the world of finance. What was once the private playground of the rich and powerful, the middlemen and brokers, institutions and corporations — the world of investing and financial exchange — have been eclipsed by thousands of common people empowered by the free and open nature of blockchain-based finance. The people that can’t afford the buy-in to the current system, ones who do not pass the vetting of its gatekeepers and are left with nowhere to go. They see Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a permissionless option to participate in the global financial economy and a way out of their own rat races. They invest hard earned money, a few bucks here and there, hoping to make honest gains on their own, even risking losses, instead of being at the mercy of consumerism and inflation.

    [...]

    Children born from 2009 onward are going to live in a world where digital cryptocurrencies always existed and are the norm instead of a fad. They will never understand the need to wait “3 to 5 business days” for money to be transferred, to wait in line at a bank, to pay 10% to send money. It’s easy to think that this is wishful thinking, but remember, lot of people called the internet a fad too. Now we no longer go online, we live online."


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