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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: trees] 1
#27209312 - 02/16/21 12:20 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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You know, telling someone to "do some reading" isn't particularly instructive with regard to helping us understand why Cardano is, in your view, far superior than Polkadot. If you could distill down the relative comparisons, that would be very much appreciated. There are only so many hours in the day, and to start blindly hitting literature to figure out the specific comparisons between ADA and DOT and then make a judgement call on their relative merits isn't something I can tackle in a lunch break (especially one where I'm tasked with simultaneously entertaining a three year old ).
So again, please share with specificity why you believe ADA to be so far superior to DOT. I am genuinely interested, as I have respect for and am interested in both projects. For the reasons sh4d0ws elucidated, it just seems like DOT has the stronger network effect at this juncture, and arguably more developer momentum.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] 1
#27212759 - 02/18/21 10:29 AM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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With my tongue firmly planted in my cheek, I gotta tell ya, whenever you guys say there is no direction and you're all in cash... I feel like we must be looking at totally different charts. 

There is definitely direction, clear as day, and it's positively higher.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Nature Boy]
#27212983 - 02/18/21 12:12 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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That I do understand. Holding on to winners and letting them work for you is one of the more difficult aspects of trading.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws] 1
#27213865 - 02/18/21 09:47 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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I was shocked when I pulled up a chart of BNB earlier today  . I've always had it in the back of my mind to hold a piece of BNB, as they've always been fast at adapting and carried dominant volume for the sector. I did hold BNB for a while (while it was in the single digits and up to $20), but I ditched it when they blocked US citizens from their primary platform. My mistake.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Grimsweeper] 1
#27215463 - 02/19/21 07:01 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Grimsweeper said: Geokills did you end up selling a portion of your btc at 53,800?
Killing it on btc and eth. Just wish my alts would catch up so I can liquidate.
I cancelled the $53.8K sell order. $50K is so psychologically significant, I ended up feeling that a break above would probably lead to a bit more of a run and I shouldn't sell myself short on that. $56.5K showing some supply on BTC -- through a very short-term lens. My first sell order (in a very long while) is presently at $58.2K. I could conceive of another double before the year is out, but I need to start incrementally taking a little profit off the table. It's a matter of discipline.
Took a good chunk of XTZ off above $5. I still have meaningful exposure to XTZ, but by and large, I'm huge on BTC, ETH and DOT. Started accumulating DOT around $7-$8 and it is absolutely killing it right now, and I'm staking for a 12% annual reward.
My only problem with it is that I sold a bunch around $15-$20. 
Smaller altcoins just can't stand much chance when the majors are on the move. Alts are what active traders look toward when the major markets get boring. But the major markets are on fire, it's going to bleed out some enthusiasm from the smaller issues, initially. Once the majors have stabilized into a higher base, then some of the alts can be considered for more active swing trading.
(I still have a hard time trading crypto).
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: mongo lloyd] 1
#27216236 - 02/20/21 08:02 AM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Haha, thanks for the poignant reminder about the downside there mongo lloyd  
On that note, let's talk about selling, since we are getting pretty close to my first larger sale in a long stretch, targeted for $58,200 BTC. Why $58.2K? Cocktail napkin calculations... We had a big move from $20K-$40K and a reversion to $30K. A double from $30K to $60K seems like a logical target before coming back to test $45-$50K. Chose $58.2K because I'm trying to front run the $60K target a bit. As nominal price increases, $1.8K at these levels becomes less significant. Since I cancelled my other sell order in the lower $50's, I want to make sure I get a fill on this one.
This sale will comprise 12.5% of the BTC in my corporate account (less than 5% of total assets in the account). I'm selling to scratch the itch and stay in practice with regard to skimming some profit off of outsized moves along the way up. I will be ready to take another 12.5% BTC off, as well as up to 25% of the ETH in there, I suspect before the month is out.
If all those sales execute as intended, it will bring the account up to ~20% cash. DOT has moved rather ferociously as well, and I am mulling a partial sale there, which would bring the total cash in the account up to ~25%. But for now, this one lowly BTC sale target at $58.2K will give me ~5% cash.
In my personal account, I've already raised ~6% cash through sales of NEO (completely divested) and DOT.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] 1
#27217050 - 02/20/21 04:15 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Enkidu said: Geo what are you thinking?
"Nice" little shakeout here. Trend remains intact, for now. Quick rebounds on these little dumps is indicative of the underlying strength from buyers just waiting to pounce on any weakness. I don't see much to do here.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27218278 - 02/21/21 11:17 AM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Enkidu said: Btc looks beautiful on the chart Geo if i wanted a stop loss in case this btc failed right here on the flag where would it be?
BTC was "flagging" from Feb 8th through the 13th or 15th, depending who you ask. Once it started to close above $48K (and definitely when it broke above $50K), that flag broke out to continuation and has basically been just running ever since. A measured move on the flag points to $60-$65K as a reasonable target. There isn't really any logical place for a stop on the chart (maybe $44K, but who wants to wait for a $13,500 drawdown to be stopped out? It doesn't make much sense). If you have a huge position and are itching to take some off, I would just set a partial stop at the prior day's low, or simply pick a target and set your sell order, like I've done for myself with $58.2K.
As I've said several times, I don't generally like using stops on crypto because the order books on any given exchange remain thin enough that what could be considered a reasonable stop will often get triggered due to the lack of liquidity during selling pressure, and often enough then recover almost immediately. This is also why I don't like to actively trade crypto. I can trade around a core position in smaller increments, but only on intermediate-to-longer term trends, because I'm not staying up 24/7 to watch it, and stops aren't reliable due to the aforementioned liquidity squeezes.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27218367 - 02/21/21 12:01 PM (2 years, 11 months ago) |
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The strength of this trend has been just phenomenal. In recognition, I cut back slightly on the size of my initial sale of BTC @ $58.2K (literally a few minutes before it fired), in favor of a ladder of orders going all the way up to $77,777 .
If these orders all trigger, I’ll be out of 33% of my company held BTC. Will implement a similar ladder of sales on ETH.
It’s just too hard to try to pick a specific level for large orders on these instruments. I know I want to raise some cash, but stops aren’t reliable due to the liquidity squeezes that will waterfall through stops only to immediately recover... so the only other option as I see it, is to take incremental profits along the way. My equity chart disposition leads to a short term measured move target of $60-$65K based on the positive break of the Feb 8-13 (or 15 depending on who you ask) bull flag. But there is so much positive momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this overshoot. To be fair, I wouldn't be surprised to see a plunge down to $44K either! Such is the nature of the beast .
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] 1
#27219700 - 02/22/21 07:39 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: To be fair, I wouldn't be surprised to see a plunge down to $44K either! Such is the nature of the beast .

DOT all the way down into the $12's on Kraken's order book. Wowee.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] 1
#27219730 - 02/22/21 07:59 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Just in case anyone missed it yesterday...
Quote:
geokills said: [...] stops aren’t reliable due to the liquidity squeezes that will waterfall through stops only to immediately recover... so the only other option as I see it, is to take incremental profits along the way.
Looks like Kraken had some serious issues that cost a lot of people some real money: https://twitter.com/CryptoCobain/status/1363860562497708033
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27219867 - 02/22/21 09:11 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Started an initial position on Synthetix (SNX) @ $19.46. DeFi protocol, we'll see what happens.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Nature Boy] 1
#27220026 - 02/22/21 10:21 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Nature Boy said:
I'm not sure I understand what I'm reading. Are people suggesting that Kraken (on more or less a monthly time frame) liquidate people's positions causing a monumental fall they're referring to as a "scamwick." People in that twitter feed are suggesting something intentional and diabolical happened? Please explain.
People say all sorts of crazy shit. I doubt there was anything deliberate going on. More likely that Kraken's order book was just too thin to support that volatility, which in turn caused a cascade of stops to be hit and subsequent leveraged position liquidations to execute during the drawdown; a negative feedback loop.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Nature Boy]
#27220351 - 02/22/21 01:35 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Nature Boy said:
Quote:
geokills said, in part: More likely that Kraken's order book was just too thin to support that volatility, which in turn caused a cascade of stops to be hit and subsequent leveraged position liquidations to execute during the drawdown; a negative feedback loop.
In your learned opinion did that negative feedback loop at Kraken for the reason(s) you cite cause or contribute to the extent of the fall in prices? Is there causation or correlation??
Impossible to say. There was obviously some fairly significant sustained selling pressure hitting the tape before the big plunge this morning, which roughly coincided with major US markets opening up. Certainly, the issues at Kraken could have caused the "last gasp" of selling pressure to dive a little deeper than it otherwise may have, but there was definitely an overabundance of selling interest long before their platform melted down.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: budmanman]
#27220909 - 02/22/21 07:00 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27221775 - 02/23/21 07:51 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Just passing along a quick note I caught this morning before heading out for the week, from @scottrades this morning on the StockMarketMentor forum:
Quote:
#Bitcoin is pulling back hard again the key with this is to stick to your plan. If your plan is to trade it, trade it. If your plan is to HODL it, focus on the TREND and look for opportunities that fit your style. I bought a little this morning as it was just under the 21 EMA because that’s part of my long term plan. I’m long from below small adding on dips to the major moving averages. My timeframe on this trade is long and I know that means I’ll be sitting through many pullbacks like the one we have playing out now. There are some days when I wish I was trading it more actively but I developed my plan months ago and now I’m executing it. What I am seeing in Bitcoin is a lot of active Shorting not so much active selling. I follow a Twitter account that tells you what the Whales are doing and at one point I was seeing Short Prints upwards of 10 Million Dollars. I’ve attached one of these Tweets. That gives me the feeling that we’re seeing price pushed back down to support and in the coming days (or weeks) we’ll hear about all the companies that bought that dip. I’m 1000% speculating right now, but the last time we saw (The GOAT) Michael Saylor say he was planning on buying another Billion Dollars worth, we saw the same kind of pullbacks and out the otherside was his announcement that he had completed his purchase. Again, I’m speculating, but looking at what has happened in the past. We’ll see how this plays out.

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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: trees] 2
#27230923 - 02/28/21 04:23 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Nature Boy said: I hear [coinbase will] rat you out to the IRS with no subpoena [...] Any suggestions as to an exchange that won't report me out to the IRS???
It is likely that all US based exchanges will submit a report of aggregate sale proceeds to the IRS for accounts totaling $20,000 or more in sales volume during the tax year. I have found CoinTracking.info very useful in helping me calculate my tax obligations.
Quote:
trees said: I already know you regret not buying ADA. Dont even bother trying to say you don't care. [...] Anyone who missed the boat and still wants to believe they were right and theyll keep putting up blinders and telling themselves Cardano sucks
Is all that dick swinging really necessary ? ADA's breakout over $0.20 in January was clearly an actionable event. I hadn't looked at ADA in a very long while, and I missed it, plain and simple. Too bad, so sad, such is the life of a trader. Would've been an awesome move to catch, but it's nothing I'm losing sleep over. I was fortunate to catch ADA's first rally to $1 several years ago, and entering DOT two months ago between $7-8 and UNI @ $5 haven't felt too bad either. But for real trees, the more often people post in this thread for the sole purpose of tootin' their own horn, the less useful it becomes for all of us. Let's keep this on point.
As for the market, I'm happy to have had the week off! 
I am encouraged by the long lower wicks on BTC and ETH, indicating that some buying appetite remains at work. Unfortunately, there has been a definitive series of lower highs and lower lows printed, which is not ideal. Nevertheless, these corrective moves should be expected, and should reinforce your propensity to take a little bit off of the table when price is screaming higher. Even if it's not a particularly sizable sale, the mental relief this type of disciplined behavior will afford you when price ultimately retraces, is very much worth the practice.
I think qman has it right. The prevailing uptrend remains intact, and one should expect at least a few weeks (and possibly even a few months) of sideways chop while price stabilizes into a new zone of support to create a base from which to resume the prevailing longer term trend higher. Plan your trade and trade your plan. For my part, there isn't all that much trading involved in my asset allocation plan for crypto, and this approach has served me well, despite paper losses in the six figures this week.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Nature Boy] 1
#27232072 - 03/01/21 12:50 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Nature Boy, here is a copy of a discussion I had elsewhere with someone regarding the use of stops in the cryptoverse, that you may find helpful. Note that generally, I fully endorse the use of protective stops, especially in equities, where bids and asks are aggregated on infrastructure that is shared across different exchanges so everyone is trading off the same data. Because the cryptoverse hasn't yet evolved to incorporate a universal bid/ask dataset, stops are a bit more risky to use here as explained in the following.
Quote:
Geo said: Because of the relatively thin order books on any isolated exchange, stops aren’t as reliable as they should be, due to the liquidity squeezes that will waterfall through stops only to immediately recover.
Phil asked; To make sure I understand: this is saying that even if you have a stop limit set at a price (say 10% drawdown), there's no guarantee it will fill because there will be no one to take the otherside of the trade?
Geo responded: Not exactly @phil... If you set a stop market order, it'll fill at whatever price someone is willing to pay when it triggers. You will get a fill in this case, but the problem is with the lack of liquidity on any given exchange, which can cause significant slippage if other sell orders in front of yours eat up the available bids near the price where your stop triggered your sell order. This can result in getting filled far below the level you were anticipating when you set your stop.
This can be mitigated by using stop limit orders, but if you set your limit too close to the stop trigger, and the buying liquidity isn't there (because it was eaten up by orders in front of yours), that is when you risk your order not filling as price continues to deteriorate.
While both of these scenarios are applicable to the trading on exchanges in the present day cryptoverse and related to the liquidity issues I mentioned, my point was more along the lines of crypto not respecting trend/support levels as reliably as the highly liquid equities I am accustomed to using stops with; both as a way to limit downside risk, but also to allow the stock to take me out of the trade on its own terms, when its uptrend begins to show weakness in its shorter term movements.
Crypto's short-term price action is simply too noisy/volatile, because of the relatively illiquid order books that can move price significantly further than one might expect during high volume events. Typically when this occurs, there is subsequently a quick price reversion which results in the huge wicks you see on daily candle charts such as BTC Jan 4/10/11 and to a lesser extent Feb 15 & 20 (and which we have seen on ETH Feb 7 & 15). This type of action makes it difficult to use stops, as you either have to place the stop so low as to be unprotective, or risk getting stopped out prematurely during a liquidity squeeze where the trend reasserts itself immediately after a quick washout.
Hence, forget the stops. Sell incrementally on the way up via ladders, and reinvolve that capital with buy ladders on the downside.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27232571 - 03/01/21 07:04 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Nice action today, and out of respect for that, I've put all of my idle trading capital back to work. Mostly allocated to UNI, although I am intending to reallocate a portion of my ETH stash, which is a bit outsized at the moment, into Solana (SOL).
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Nature Boy]
#27232741 - 03/01/21 09:07 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Nature Boy said: @Geo: Uni-USD is available to me through the Coinbase Pro exchange. Solana is not. Lets see if BTC comes off it's pedestal and takes UNI down a bit. Then I might pick up 5K worth. Looks like the best time to have entered on UNI was back in late January (like Jan. 21). $8.50 to nearly $27 is quite a meteoric rise. Seems to me that bull has already run...but
Most issues have had impressive runs of late. Perhaps it was before you jumped into this thread more actively, but I first began accumulating UNI around $5. Sold the last of it just after it hit $20. It broke out again on good volume Feb 20th, and fully retraced that move. I personally use and like the Uniswap product, but the real reason I bought it back today was because that chart was on my screen when it started to lift above yesterday's highs @ $24. That's the first higher daily high in 9 days, which is a definitive change of the short-term trend. It's not a huge position, but I liked what the market was doing, and UNI in particular offered a technical setup that I'm comfortable with.
Regarding SOL, those of us state side can pick that up via the exchange at: https://ftx.us
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