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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] * 2
    #27162193 - 01/21/21 07:06 PM (3 years, 6 days ago)

Buyers are stepping in here, but there is some pain overhead... I don't think you need to be in a hurry to chase here.  Let this shake out for a day or two, regroup, and figure out your strategy.

I'm comfortable with my allocations.  Volatile swings are endemic to the space, and can only be expected after the rocket fueled run we've seen.  Hence the importance of trading in scales.  I certainly would not be selling here, and if you have capital available, I would be comfortable putting some of it to work here in the ~$29K's BTC, and $1000 ETH looks like it'll probably be a floor.

Just don't get hyperactive.  Zoom out on the chart.  I've gotten caught up in trying to trade the minutia (especially when my accounts were smaller), and while it may have had me riding high for a stretch, the nervousness and eventual pain was never worth it outside of it being a learning process.  In hindsight, I consider it the tuition paid, but I can tell you are fresh to the scene (Enkidu I'm talkin' to you brother!), and I've been in that seat.  Just trying to help you avoid a few of the mistakes I had to have hammered into my head the hard way.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] * 1
    #27162219 - 01/21/21 07:18 PM (3 years, 6 days ago)



A poignant chart comparison, and relevant food for thought.  It's generally folly to think that "this time is different"... although (and I may regret saying this), I do believe that with the still relatively small valuation of the crypto asset space while the underlying issues prove their functional use cases, that this time is in fact a little bit different.  Nevertheless, we must respect price cycles, and so it is important to rein in the horns a bit here, while waiting to see where ultimate support settles out.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper] * 1
    #27162310 - 01/21/21 08:06 PM (3 years, 6 days ago)

It's not uncommon that when you're feeling the most nervous, is when you're facing a bonafide buying opportunity.  It is worth considering, however, that if you are feeling nervous, you may be trading too large for your account.  Hence, scaling in and out of positions.  You must be mindful not to trade hyperactively, but as the market environment changes, so too should your positioning, even if only slightly.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Sugabearcrisp]
    #27163058 - 01/22/21 08:29 AM (3 years, 6 days ago)

Yellen's remarks were by no means friendly, but there are a lot of different agencies and branches of government that will have to collectively sort out how crypto related regulation shakes out.  As Treasury secretary, Yellen's domain includes FinCEN (the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network), and so it is seems pretty obvious why she might highlight the illicit use cases for crypto as a concern.  I don't think her words are anything new, but high profile statements like that can dampen sentiment short term.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27164210 - 01/22/21 06:42 PM (3 years, 5 days ago)

XTZ to four month highs, this one is behaving spectacularly well in the face of the recent selloff.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] * 1
    #27165094 - 01/23/21 09:03 AM (3 years, 5 days ago)

I'm all for healthy discussion, but taking this thread in the direction of the "deep state" is veering off topic.  If you would like to maintain a discussion along that line, I would suggest a better home will be found in our Conspiracy & Cover-ups forum.  Let's keep the crypto thread focused on what is happening specifically with the ongoing development of the crypto sector and its constituent assets, as best we can.

To address Enkidu's question about making sense of the price action here.  This is normal price behavior after a huge volatility expansion and increase in aggregate value.  Asset prices always ebb and flow, and when you have an outsized move, you have to expect a reversion to the mean.  In thin markets (like crypto), this reversion/consolidation period is going to be choppier than you would expect to find in a mature and more liquid market (like AAPL stock for example).  BTC is making a short-term series of lower highs and lower lows.  This will likely take some more time, along the order of weeks to months, to digest its big move and build a new base from which to move higher.  ETH is showing stronger positive momentum, as it is still creating a series of higher higher and higher lows, although generally the range is very broad and very volatile. You want to maintain exposure, but you also want to give these some time.  There is little use in being aggressive at this moment.

Again, this is pretty normal behavior.  Nothing goes up in a straight line.  If you seek capital appreciation, you must accept the associated volatility and risk involved.  You try to manage that risk through a disciplined approach, but you never panic.  If you find yourself constantly moving in and out of things, and not getting paid off for all of that energy spent, you need to rethink your approach.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: InnerWisdom]
    #27165136 - 01/23/21 09:33 AM (3 years, 5 days ago)

Pretty good intraday volume off of ~$2.90 on XTZ.  Getting all the way back to $2.60 might prove difficult.  I might suggest splitting your order into a ladder between $2.60 and $2.80.

Also, I like this: Money Reimagined: Letter to President Biden


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Edited by geokills (01/23/21 09:35 AM)


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: ChemicalSpark] * 1
    #27168153 - 01/24/21 10:33 PM (3 years, 3 days ago)

Quote:

ChemicalSpark said:
Wish I got a piece of the UNI pump today. It’s up ~30%.



Sold a tranche @ $12.45 (picked up in scales between $7-$9).  Next sell order @ $15.  Overall, yes, DeFi is a hot spot.  ETH, as the dominant DeFi base chain, is benefitting, along with their transition to POS (i.e. 2.0).  ETH is the safest, strongest position right now.  BTC is a must for any long term portfolio, and looks to be turning higher here as well.


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Grimsweeper]
    #27172334 - 01/27/21 07:22 AM (3 years, 1 day ago)

Quote:

Grimsweeper said:
Been a rough week. Not quite deep enough dips to buy but not making any money either. Full boat of stagnant orders.




Can't make money all the time.  Might as well embrace the horror. :tongue2:

Bitcoin is still working off its blowoff extension, and as I noted not long ago, we probably have weeks to months of sideways grind before being able to make a meaningful move higher.  This is the period where the trading gets particularly difficult, and one can suffer "death by a thousand paper cuts" amidst the choppy volatility as a base is carved out.  My advice is to position yourself with whatever you are comfortable with insofar as your long term asset allocation, and unglue yourself from the charts for a while.

Federal Reserve announcement incoming... Dollar is up a bit, bitcoin and stocks are down.  Talk of the $1.9T stimulus proposal being pared back to a more reasonable number is also supporting the move this morning.


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Nature Boy]
    #27173366 - 01/27/21 06:26 PM (3 years, 1 day ago)

Kraken, also recently used Uniswap to move some tokens from the PROPS ICO I had laying around that I thought were worthless but I could actually exchange on that decentralized platform.  I sold my last tranche of UNI tokens today @ $15.  It honestly looks pretty healthy, like it could run some more, but I accumulated most of my position between $7-$8, and the $15 sell order was put on the books last week, so hey, I'm not going to complain about having my top limit hit.


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Enkidu] * 2
    #27175704 - 01/29/21 07:21 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Just in case anyone was wondering, some of this move in BTC can be attributed to Elon Musk changing his Twitter bio to #bitcoin and in turn, forcing the liquidation of many millions of short positions.  Regardless of its origins, and for whatever it may be worth, I am not selling into this strength.

   


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #27175931 - 01/29/21 09:59 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Note the custom header CoinMarketCap includes on the WallStreetBets price page:
Quote:

All UR MeMes R belong to us and Charmander-marth!!!!!111. We seek alpha and master beta. Please note that this is a joke- no such asset exists. If you see similarly-named projects, please perform the requisite due diligence and do not ape into anything associated with this page.




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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Brian Jones] * 2
    #27177005 - 01/29/21 08:30 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

This is a doom and gloom report based on the intersection of the 50 day and 200 day moving averages. They're calling it the Death Cross. It's all over my head.




BTC is no where near experiencing a death cross, but to comment on the term... Both the death cross, and its inverse, the golden cross (where the 50 moves above the 200) are lagging indicators.  For my money, they mean next to nothing.  On a fast moving trend, the cross can actually coincide with a decent consolidation/rest period that has now carved out enough of a base before resuming the prevailing trend.  Financial news is 90% garbage, they just need to fill the space.  Price action will tell you 99% of the story.  On that note...

In so far as BTC and the whole lot, we're more or less directionless right now.  I'm stickin' with my statement of the prior weeks; this is consolidation, volatile sideways chop, and you should be comfortable with your long term exposure, and do whatever you can to avoid "death by a thousand papercuts" by trying too hard to trade this period.


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: sh4d0ws] * 1
    #27178033 - 01/30/21 01:46 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

ETH is marking time for sure. I feel a little doufused for cropping out of my UNI at $12-$15, but that averaged a near double, so I can’t feel that bad about it :biggrin:

I’m confident ETH will have its day (it hasn’t really been a slouch however you slice it).  It’s a much larger, widely held, more liquid asset.  The nature of that dynamic offers some safety, at the expense of high flying gains like we’re seeing in UNI now.  You can get lucky, and that’s all wavy gravy, but a balanced measure of slow and steady will almost always win the race.


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Nature Boy] * 1
    #27187493 - 02/05/21 06:50 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Quote:

Nature Boy said:
I never worry about that one bit.  If I'm on the positive side by $10.00 I call that good.  You are correct in that there's no point (and an exercise in futility) to time the market.  That's NOT what I'm talking about.  I use analysis to spot trends - wait for confirmation (i.e. several candles in a row and other factors) and then act on it if I'm so inclined.

Will I miss the very beginning of an uptick? Hell yes.  Do I care?  Hell no. If I get a good chunk of change out of the MIDDLE (not bottom nor top) of an uptrend, I have both SAFETY and a profit.  Is it maximal profit?  Nope.  Does it avoid losses?  Yep.




Bolded for emphasis, excellent post Nature Boy.  You are absolutely correct that waiting for a trend to begin to reveal itself, learning to spot those signs relatively early, and then trailing up a sell stop or a ladder of sell stops is the ideal way to catch the meat of a move.  I don't like to put hard and fast numbers on technique, but just to simplify with something concrete; my goal is to catch 80% of any given trend.  I'm not trying to catch a falling knife (aka picking bottoms) and I'm not trying to sell the top.

I'll take the middle of the move any day I can, as it gives me the confidence that I'm not the "first soldier out of the trench" (we know what happens to them), allows me to place an initial sell stop reasonably close to my entry, and bucks me off via my sell stop, which is ratcheted up as the trend continues to mature and therefore takes me out once the trend reverses.

Don't forget to consider the trend across multiple time frames.  You should regularly zoom out and check that weekly/monthly chart.  Those are your primary indicators of the driving force in an asset, the "decision time frame".  Then and only then should you be zooming in to smaller time frames, your "action time frame", to construct your buy and sell stop orders.

----

On a more general note, I am seeing some pretty frenetic trading going on in this thread these days.  I get it, I do it too sometimes.  But don't lose sight of the bigger picture here.  Cryptocurrency is an asset class all its own, and a new one at that.  Bitcoin and/or ether can (and I believe should) be a primary constituent of your own personal treasury.  It is more volatile than the good old USD, but insofar as its aggregate trend, it blows USD and all other fiats out of the water.  You are constantly losing value by saving dollars.  You may feel some pain from the swings in crypto, but for those of us who adopt it as a portion of our personal treasury reserve (not a trading vehicle), it is paying off huge and with minimal stress.

I'm not saying to put all of your savings into bitcoin.  But think about it from a broader perspective.  If you own a home as part of your asset mix, you aren't constantly trying to sell it and by a house in the neighboring town because it appears to be an up and coming area where property values may increase more than the home you currently own.  For a more relevant comparison, you probably aren't trying to trade your dollars for euros or reals or rubles to catch each swing in the Forex market either.  Likewise with crypto, you should simply have some as part of your asset mix.  If you want to trade around a bit for shits and giggles, that's totally fine.  But if that's all you're doing, you may be missing the point.  There is a global uncertainty with regard to government's management of debt and money, and an increasing understanding and acceptance of how a digital asset, collectively controlled, is a far superior store of wealth.


PS.  ETH above $1700. :sun:

PPS.  Here's a nice article on Polkadot (DOT): A Deep Dive Into Polkadot’s Parachain Auctions and Crowdloans


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Nature Boy]
    #27187759 - 02/05/21 10:05 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Sorry about the accident, ice is a tricky thing us southern Californian's don't often have to worry about... but man, even just a sprinkle of rain makes the highways around here downright nightmarish since most people aren't accustomed to driving in anything outside of 50-100 degree dry weather.  By the sounds of your report, your wife is OK, and that's the most important thing.


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: geokills] * 2
    #27188618 - 02/05/21 07:04 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

Jumpy market, as soon as BTC looks set to move on $40K, ETH and various alts get slammed.  Can't we all just get along? :tongue2:
Although, this makes me very comfortable balancing the bulk of my holdings between BTC/ETH, as they are clear leadership. :rocket:


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Nature Boy] * 2
    #27189252 - 02/06/21 07:49 AM (2 years, 11 months ago)

It's very common for limit orders to be filled in partial lots, I've seen it on every exchange I've used (some exchanges will group the individual transactions into a single notation, unless you dig into the more granular ledger on your account).  Order books are still rather thin on any given exchange, and so if you have a buy limit, but supply at that level is limited, you can only soak up available supply.  This happens in the equity market as well, although is seen much more rarely, due to the nature of the increased liquidity and tighter spreads.  But if your limit orders are large enough, you'll see it fairly regularly.


On BTC:

Can't argue with the tape.  Volume could improve a bit, but price is back at the highs; sure looks like it wants to break through.  It's been about a month since the all time high was printed, which fits into my original thesis of "weeks to months" of choppy sideways consolidation before attempting continuation higher, albeit on the shorter end of the spectrum.  I would have expected a little more sideways chop, but investors are clearly still thirsty for this asset.

Such is the nature of assets with large scale adoption catalysts, crypto simply isn't in a lot of hands yet, or at least, not to the degree they would like it to be.  Similar action can be seen in the cannabis equity stocks, which are expected to benefit handsomely from rollbacks in federal regulation here in US in conjunction with generally broader acceptance globally.  These things tend to keep going higher in anticipation of their increased adoption and use.


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Nature Boy]
    #27189897 - 02/06/21 03:05 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

ETH seems to be trading fairly tightly to me.  It needs to digest the move up from $1300, and I do suspect it will continue higher.  With BTC showing relative strength, one can reasonably expect some traders are moving capital from ETH into BTC in the here and now, although that is likely only a short-term artifact from momentum chasers.

I'm swapping a small tranche of ETH into an initial position of POLS via uniswap, and will look for an opportunity to double down on a retracement to ~$1.80 or thereabouts.  This relatively new issue is essentially a kickstarter token for applications on the Polkadot network (DOT), which I also hold a piece of in my corporate account.

See: https://www.polkastarter.com/.  It's had an impressive run this week, so I would expect it to cool off a bit, but it's in the sweet spot for alts/DeFi, and so I intend to build the position up to 5-8% of my personal portfolio (this first swap equates to < 2%).


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Re: Cryptocurrency Big Dogs: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) [Re: Primal Matter] * 1
    #27190523 - 02/06/21 09:32 PM (2 years, 11 months ago)

If you have a coin eligible for staking rewards, you should absolutely be staking them; and yes I have.  The first coin I staked was in the heady days of 2017 when I held a decent stash of NEBL as it went from $1 to $60.  As a participant in the XTZ ICO, I delegated my XTZ for staking shortly after it was available to do so.  I hold enough to stake my own, but the small management fee I pay to the person who I have delegated to makes it worthwhile for me not to run it myself.  I have not moved my ETH to ETH 2.0 for staking, as I prefer the liquidity and as yet have not been ready to take the added risk, but am considering moving half of my position over to 2.0 for the present ~9% reward.  I also stake Polkadot through Kraken's staking service for a ~12% annual reward.


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