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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #27145733 - 01/13/21 11:49 AM (3 years, 15 days ago)

Price action is beginning to firm up.  I am getting less confident that my lower buy orders will be hit, but that's OK, as I don't mind keeping some dry powder handy.  Redeploying capital @ $31,000 was helpful, and I also picked up some more DOT @ $8, which is now back above $10 after a very strong showing overnight.  All in all, the trading portfolio is a mere 5% below its all time high, even as bitcoin remains 15% below its all time high.  None too shabby in my book.

I reckon that we have some more sideways chop to tread before taking another stab at surmounting $40K, but the action does look constructive.  A move above $36,500 will build confidence and set us in the right direction, although traders should consider the consolidation range fairly wide, with moves as low as $31,000 "stomachable", and obvious resistance @ $40,000.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: ChemicalSpark] * 1
    #27146089 - 01/13/21 02:53 PM (3 years, 15 days ago)

Chasing is generally not advised... and so it is with a heavy heart (:tongue2:) that I must report that DOT just breached $11. :toomuchacid:

BTC pushing through $36,500 and the right side of that "W" I was talking about the other day is really coming together nicely.  This also makes the manifestation of a "head & shoulders" reversal pattern less likely, which is just fine by me.

On a less savory note, I received this email today from Ledger:
Quote:

Dear client,

On December 23, 2020, Shopify, our e-commerce service provider, informed Ledger of an incident involving merchant data. Rogue agent(s) of their customer support team obtained Ledger customer transactional records in April and June 2020. This is related to the incident reported by Shopify in September 2020, which concerns more than 200 merchants, but until December 21, 2020, Shopify had not identified this affected Ledger as well.

We were able to examine the stolen data together with a third party forensic firm to identify the impacted customers.

We regret to inform you that you are part of the customers whose detailed personal information was stolen by Shopify rogue agent(s). Specifically, your name and surname, detail of product(s) ordered, phone number and your postal address were exposed.

We notified the French Data Protection Authority on December 26, 2020. We are continuing to work with Shopify and law enforcement on the case; an investigation is already underway, led by the FBI and the RCMP. Ledger also reported the events to the French Public Prosecutor and filed a complaint against the rogue agent(s).

Thefts and attacks such as this cannot go uninvestigated or unprosecuted. We continue to work with law enforcement as well as private investigators on these cases, and we are adding more firepower by hiring additional private investigation capacity, adding experience and approaches to finding those responsible for these data thefts.

FINALLY, keeping you secure is our reason for existing. We will soon release a technical solution that will remove the 24 words as the single pillar of the security of our hardware wallets and will open the door to funds insurance.

If you would like more detail on the many steps we are taking to prevent such incidents in the future, please read this blog post.

Sincerely,
Pascal Gauthier
Ledger CEO




I bolded the above section for emphasis, as I am very curious to see what sort of extra "pillars of security" they will be adding, or what exactly they mean by "opening the door to funds insurance." :strokebeard:


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27146399 - 01/13/21 06:17 PM (3 years, 15 days ago)

Sold 25% of my DOT into this strength, more or less what I picked up @ $8.  40% gain in a couple days... definitely worth claiming. :thumbup:

BTC hittin' the upper bollinger band on the 4 hr, and the 9 day EMA from the underside (an indicator that has proven relevant as support on this entire run up and should therefore prove relevant as resistance now that it was decisively broken).  Thus, I would expect a pause and a bit of a pull back here, probably to around $35,000.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper]
    #27147253 - 01/14/21 08:05 AM (3 years, 14 days ago)

Well I'll be damned, BTC pushing right back up to $40K and DOT levitating to $13. Heady days are indeed here again!  When what you expect to happen, doesn't, it's important to pay attention.  The strength of the momentum here is extreme.  Still technically in a wide consolidation range off the top, but the speed of the recovery lends increasing creedence toward a breakout to new highs (to counter that enthusiasm, the volume on the move from $34K back to $40K has been declining, which is generally considered to reduce confidence in continuation).  I would still like to see a little pull back here, to create more of a base from which to springboard higher.  But I suppose this is crypto, and thinner, emerging markets will move with more eccentricity that your typical equity might.


Quote:

Grimsweeper said:
geo how do you feel about yearn.finance? Have you ever dipped in there?



It's been one I've watched, but volume has been lacking, which has prevented me from getting involved.  For this reason, I would be more comfortable with UNI, as it sees a lot more action and is deeply intertwined with the DeFi sub-sector in which yearn.finance operates.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper]
    #27147476 - 01/14/21 10:51 AM (3 years, 14 days ago)

Nicely done Grimsweeper.  If you're planning to put all or some of that money back to work near term, watch for a bounce on a pullback to $35K-$36K as an opportunity.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws] * 2
    #27148356 - 01/14/21 06:29 PM (3 years, 13 days ago)

Just took another 25% of my DOT off the table @ $14.66.  Really impressive moves here, still have meaningful exposure, but these gains are just too quick not to take a little bit back.

Quote:

Billy Ray said:
What do you all think about the possibility of blockchain breaking due to quantum computing or high level hackers?




That'll depend on what blockchain you're talking about.  Surely, some of the DeFi protocols have suffered on account of savvy codesmiths who have either been able to find loopholes in the contracts or have otherwise implemented coordinated manipulation of levered markets to benefit handsomely.  But in so far as breaking the encryption that underpins the technology?  It's not something I worry about.  Keep in mind that the best projects have an active development team, and that team will also look towards the utilization of something like quantum computing, if and when that type of processing becomes intelligible enough to apply to the space.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #27149433 - 01/15/21 09:36 AM (3 years, 13 days ago)

Taking a little more DOT off here @ $13.25.  This one has run a lot, and I'd like to take the risk of giving back such a short-term outsized move off the table.  I have a core position being staked that I won't be touching, but my trading position, which was bought between $7-$9, grew to three times the size of my staked position, and was intended to capitalize off of the short term action.  Plan your trade, trade your plan.  I would expect to be able to re-enter this somewhere around $9-$10 in the coming days.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: deadwk]
    #27150183 - 01/15/21 05:27 PM (3 years, 13 days ago)

As a Mt Gox creditor, I'm not expecting a large dump from holders, although there may be a short period of initial selling pressure.  The markets are maturing, and volumes are large enough to soak up a little extra supply.  As the holder of a not insignificant claim with the Mt Gox estate, I would not divest more than 25% upon receipt.  As I just became aware of the recent conjecture, I don't yet have a full appraisal of the actual deal in the works, however it seems the legal group we have formed has been discussing this at length for the past two days, which I will have to study up on over the weekend to gain a clearer understanding of recent developments.


In other news, I am seeing some aggressive buying hitting the tape here.  I am adding back some of the DOT I sold, and putting a ladder of buy orders in on UNI, which hasn't run as fiercely as DOT, and is my preferred proxy on the DeFi craze that has taken the cryptosphere over the past year.


Edit: New all time highs on DOT here.  Very impressive.  You can't always be watching the tape, but if you are, and your thesis is proven wrong (i.e. DOT has run so much, it needs a rest), that is the unexpected manifesting, and it is worth paying attention to.  My re-entry is already up almost 10%.  I'm not sure what is causing this spike, but volume is there, and volume is truth.


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Edited by geokills (01/15/21 06:00 PM)


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper]
    #27150714 - 01/15/21 11:21 PM (3 years, 12 days ago)

XTZ has a pretty firm base @ $2.  I don't think you need to be in a rush to sell that one, frankly.  It has been rather volatile, but if you zoom out to a weekly or monthly chart, you'll see that the chart has generally been creating a series of higher highs and higher lows.  Volume over the past two weeks has been very strong, and price has been positive.  I would expect this one to have more upside risk than downside risk.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #27151103 - 01/16/21 08:54 AM (3 years, 12 days ago)

Quote:

geokills said:

In other news, I am seeing some aggressive buying hitting the tape here.  I am adding back some of the DOT I sold, and putting a ladder of buy orders in on UNI, which hasn't run as fiercely as DOT, and is my preferred proxy on the DeFi craze that has taken the cryptosphere over the past year.





XTZ above $3, DOT punching through $18.  UNI pushing through $9.  I sold a piece of my UNI @ $9.25 this morning (bought between $6.50 - $7 yesterday), with another sell order at $10.75 & $12.45.  I will also be looking to unload some DOT as it approaches $20.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper] * 1
    #27151548 - 01/16/21 01:53 PM (3 years, 12 days ago)

Great job trading in scales Grimsweeper!  Particularly in a landscape as volatile as crypto, it's the only way to stay sane and relatively consistent.

On that note, the DOT I re-entered on the high volume bounce off of $13 yesterday, I've dished back a portion @ $18.77 (sometimes it really does work to buy high and sell higher).  When the going is good, it's worth putting in the extra effort and attention.  But it is important to remember that you can't force markets, the market doesn't care about you and what you are doing, you have to trade the market that is in front of you.  Right now, there is tremendous upside momentum and fairly reliable technical support mechanics.

I've said many times that I don't really like actively trading crypto because the markets are relatively thin.  In fact, I've noticed that my buys and sells on DOT are often making up the majority of the 1 minute candle volume when they execute (on UNI I’m soaking up about 5 minutes of volume on any given trade).  These aren't particularly big trades by my measure, so that just serves as a reminder that a lot of these markets are still very small, which exaggerates the volatility and often makes the technical patterns I am used to, less reliable.  But right now, patterns are working and I'm happy to take advantage of it while I can.  It won't always be this way.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: deadwk]
    #27152925 - 01/17/21 08:07 AM (3 years, 11 days ago)

Quote:

deadwk said:
the market has matured so much since the Mt.Gox days, whales probably several tens of thousands of BTC on a regular basis that even if all were dumped there probably wouldn't be a crazy market crashing impact. Another thing a friend of mine mentioned is that basically all Mt.Gox creditors are "the strongest holders" as they haven't had access to that BTC for years.




Some new developments on the MtGox civil rehabilitation plan are coming to light, including some factors that may help with avoiding a knee-jerk dump upon the estate's asset distribution.  The following is based on information gleaned from a discussion amongst the MtGoxLegal group of creditors, which I have been a part of.  I haven't yet myself reviewed internal documentation as it pertains to the civil rehabilitation plan submitted to the court, but others apparently have, and the following includes the takeaway points as presently understood.

Fortress Investment Group, the largest but by no means the only investor, has been actively hounding creditors for years in attempts to buy their distressed asset claims on the cheap (I've received at least three different offers of increasing value).  It recently came to light that they may now be working with the MtGox Trustee directly to formulate a plan to ring-fence the risk of a large settlement from the MtGox estate to Coinlab (the primary issue that has been delaying distribution), thereby coordinating with the estate to capture more claims in exchange for a reduced "early payout" option to those creditors selling their claim who don't want to wait around for the Coinlab case to settle.  It's essentially the same deal they've been soliciting us with independently, but if offered through the estate's trustee as part of the official civil rehabilitation plan, they will likely be able to bag even more of the claims, and are unlikely to sell reactively on the spot market due to their nature as a more sophisticated, well capitalized investor.

There is also speculation that the civil rehabilitation plan may include a differently valued/structured "intermediate term payout" option, and with both of these options combined, could result in doling out the assets of the estate in a more incremental fashion, thereby helping to prevent a flood of coins from manifesting on the spot market.

The reason this complicated structure is even being considered is because Coinlab has attempted to claim up to $16 billion from the estate from an ancient contract they had entered into with MtGox (but by most accounts doesn't hold water).  Because of how aggressively investment groups are trying to buy up creditor claims, it seems there is low confidence that Coinlab will get away with their egregious attempt to pilfer the coffers of the estate.  However they will probably be awarded something, and their process must work through several appeals in the Japanese court system, thereby seriously delaying distribution since the trustee cannot distribute funds until he is assured of being able to do so fairly, thus requiring the Coinlab claim to be settled for a specific amount, such that the trustee does not risk coming up short on payment to any creditor, Coinlab or otherwise.

In a nutshell, Fortress seems to be offering to accept the risk of the courts awarding Coinlab an excessive claim, in exchange for gaining access to a larger pool of creditors who may wish to sell their claim at a discount for an early payout.  This bolsters the thesis that Coinlab's claim is expected to settle for a more reasonable amount, as well as Fortress' confidence in the long term appreciation of the bitcoin asset class.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL]
    #27153023 - 01/17/21 09:05 AM (3 years, 11 days ago)

There were no shitcoins in existence.  MtGox was formerly "Magic the Gathering, Online eXchange" :tongue2:.  A platform developed to facilitate the trading of Magic The Gathering playing cards.  The platform was adapted for use as one of the first public bitcoin exchanges, operated by a young French man by the name of Mark Karpeles under Japanese jurisdiction.  At the time, the only crypto asset available was bitcoin, and so that is all that they transacted in.  Hackers made use of a loophole to siphon off funds from the company, twice, ultimately resulting in the loss of ~80% of MtGox's assets before they declared bankruptcy.

At the time of bankruptcy commencement, bitcoin was rolling around ~$400.  Creditors successfully pressured the trustee to close the bankruptcy proceedings in favor of civil rehabilitation proceedings, thereby unlocking the appreciated value of the estate's bitcoin assets for all creditors, pro rata.  So although claimants can only expect a maximum of 20% of their original assets returned (and more likely ~16% after fees, settlements, and the partial sales that the trustee engaged in 2017/2018 to ringfence the $400/coin original bankruptcy value), claimants can expect, at present day value, nearly 9000% more than what was originally expected at the time of bankruptcy.  In real terms, the amount my claim is worth at present day, relevant to the amount of USD I wired to MtGox back in 2014, represents a 2000% return.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #27153475 - 01/17/21 01:02 PM (3 years, 11 days ago)

FIL has a nice technical setup, being one of the higher profile ICO’s with a long path to fruition, and after a decent basing process on the heels of its public launch, it appears to be popping on fairly big volume.  I’m taking a stab at it here @ $24.40.  This should hold above $24, given the price/volume dynamics.  I hesitate to use stops on my crypto positions, due to the wild and whippy swings, but I have a mental stop at $24 and if it violates that level without a quick recovery, I will shut this trade down.



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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Hikeadellic]
    #27153567 - 01/17/21 02:03 PM (3 years, 11 days ago)

It's a long running phishing scheme, whereby high profile names are impersonated on various social media (or their accounts are overtaken outright), and you are asked to "send X amount of money to Y address to receive 2X back".  Rarely if ever is someone going to offer to double your money for shits and giggles.  Not to mention, I doubt Vitalik wants to pay you to add additional congestion to the network. :crazy:


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27154338 - 01/17/21 09:40 PM (3 years, 10 days ago)

Re: FIL -- It appears there is some significant supply around $25.  That is the same level it sold off on its New Years' pop, which was in fact a higher volume move that failed.  The distinguishing factor being the bollinger bands, which were still very wide at that point due to the heightened volatility from the rapid selloff that took FIL from $30 to $20 inside of a week.  Volatility has tightened up as a base has been formed just above $20 over the past two weeks, and as a result, the move over the last two days is pushing higher out of a volatility squeeze, which is my preferred breakout/momentum setup.

As such, I can tolerate a quick move down as low as $22.50 on this trade, but below that and I'll be out of confidence and patience.  This is a very thinly traded issue, and so, it really must hold above $25 if it has any hope of gaining some steam.  Recommend keeping position size fairly light here, with a potential add on a move above $25 in the coming week.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper]
    #27154816 - 01/18/21 07:05 AM (3 years, 10 days ago)

Quote:

Grimsweeper said:
WTF is going on with INCNT?



Absolutely nothing.  This issue is apparently traded on only one exchange, which I've never even heard of (Folgory).  Daily volume has been a few hundred to a few thousand dollars.  Don't touch this thing with a 10 ft pole.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #27154900 - 01/18/21 08:09 AM (3 years, 10 days ago)

I am selling my long held NEO into the relative strength of late.  Price on NEO is behaving pretty well, but I just don't have much confidence in this project and have been generally seeking an exit.  From lows of $5 in January 2020 to over $27 today, I'm ready to let this one go.

And wow, I just spent over half an hour trying to unload a paltry amount of GAS on NEO's Switcheo DEX via my Ledger; kept getting order expiration errors, which were apparently due to one of the standing offers to buy my GAS, because once I cut the order limit down to all of the offers in front of that one, and then waited for new offers to materialize, I was able to get it done through multiple transactions.

I was excited to use atomic swaps to get the proceeds into something like WBTC or ETH, but the exchange rates were intolerably unfavorable (10%+ below market rates).  It also took several attempts to broadcast a sending transaction to a centralized exchange from my regular NEO wallet (first using NEON and finally having success via Q3).  Not very impressed with the liquidity in conjunction with the multitude of transaction failures.  That took way more time than it should have.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper]
    #27156075 - 01/18/21 06:29 PM (3 years, 9 days ago)

ETH is doing the right things here, price perking up and threatening to breakout.  Volume needs to pick up a bit, but price-wise we are ripe for the follow-on breakout.  Daily bollinger bands are still really wide however, so I would expect $1500 to be a short-term ceiling.

Closed out all DOT trading positions (kept a core staking position @ ~8% of corporate portfolio) and moved the remainder into ETH.  Also closed out the small FIL trade I had initiated and moved that into ETH.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] * 1
    #27162120 - 01/21/21 06:33 PM (3 years, 6 days ago)

Enkidu, if you really just pushed your entire paycheck into crypto, you best check yo'self! :whip:

Unless you absolutely don't need that paycheck to pay for stuff like food, rent, insurance, car/gas, whatever, you should not be putting it into a market that has doubled in a month and is now selling off.  While we may see a quick bounce, these blow-offs and reversions typically take some time to rebuild their strength.  There are going to be regretful buyers who are in the red and looking to get their money back now.  That is the emotional dynamic that creates price resistance.


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