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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
    #27124418 - 01/03/21 05:45 PM (3 years, 25 days ago)



Heh, I don't really watch Jim Cramer anymore (in fact I don't watch any financial TV), but randomly happening upon this crazy ass and his "Mad Money" show one day back in the mid 2000's is what got me seriously interested in actively trading. :hehehe:

Bottom line, trading around a core position is simply the act of maintaining exposure to your preferred asset, and buying some to beef up your position when a good entry presents itself, and selling some when the asset is performing exceedingly well.  Rinse and repeat.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL]
    #27125660 - 01/04/21 09:26 AM (3 years, 24 days ago)

In a nutshell, these huge swings are the result of the now widespread adoption of leveraged positions on almost all exchanges, in conjunction with relatively thin order books on any given exchange.  Big institutional money tends to trade "over the counter" (aka OTC), which means those trades are negotiated off of the public order books and therefore won't affect spot prices.  Thus, the order books are populated by generally smaller players who aren't as well capitalized, and it doesn't take very much buying or selling pressure to move the spot price in a big way.

So it follows, when a big order hits the public order flow on any given exchange, it can move price beyond trigger points which will force liquidations on leveraged positions across all exchanges, thereby exaggerating the move until market forces eventually equalize.  Unfortunately, a lot of technical damage can be done in the process.  The use of automated trading systems (aka programmable/algorithmic trading), can also push these moves deeper than they would otherwise be.

And yes, manipulation can definitely come into play.. where the well capitalized can load up on leverage or futures contracts and then take a swing at the spot price with a big public order to temporarily inflate their derivative positions for a beneficial entry/exit.  However, because the crypto market is still so thin in general, these moves could just as easily be triggered by an early HODL'r who is incredibly profitable, wants to book those profits, and lacks the sophistication to exit their trade more gracefully.


In general, I would expect at least a pause in the uptrend here, as crypto assets that have had a big run begin to chop around to digest their big moves and ultimately determine more reliable support zones.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27127869 - 01/05/21 10:10 AM (3 years, 23 days ago)

Looks like BTC is attempting to carve out a high base at $30,000.  ETH @ $1,000.  This is still a bit early to call it reliable support, but it's pretty clear that's where buyers have been showing up, short-term.  A move below those levels could get sporty real quick.  Just sitting on my hands now, as the short-term trend is sideways, albeit rather volatile.  There is no edge in assuming a breakdown versus a breakout.  If you have big profits, I would take a little bit off the table here (if you haven't already), simply out of prudence.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
    #27128066 - 01/05/21 11:57 AM (3 years, 23 days ago)

Positive momentum is building, I'm seeing some "W" patterns over the past 48 hours with the right "V" making a higher low relative to the left "V", which is typically a fairly reliable continuation signal... although volume is a little bit lighter than I would prefer to see here.  Nevertheless, the action is leaning toward continuation to the upside.

Enkidu, a note on your eye toward "predicting the next resistance level".  By definition, a financial instrument that it at an all time high has no resistance level.  Resistance is in large part a function of regret from buyers who purchased at a higher price, and who will look to exit when they "get back to even".  Swing traders will capitalize on and therefore strengthen this dynamic.  But when something is at an all time high, there's no use in attempting to predict resistance.

You can look for "toppy" price action, generally signaled by increasing volatility and a series of lower highs on shorter term charts with down volume running higher than up volume, but the best strategy to let your winners run while booking profits along the way, is to set a partial position sell stop at levels you have seen buyers show up (i.e. support).  Then if the asset continues to move higher and set new support zones, you ratchet up the sell stop.


Ganja420, I have noted my preference for DOT in a few posts over the prior week.  It's had a monster run, but is exhibiting better action and volume than most other alts.  Outside of BTC & ETH, it's my largest altcoin position presently.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
    #27129046 - 01/05/21 06:43 PM (3 years, 22 days ago)

Quote:

Enkidu said:
What type of volume do you normally see during big moves ?




Volume is relative.  You want to have an idea of what the average volume is for a given issue, and when volume runs above that average, that tends to adds credence to a move (volume metrics will be relative to the timeframe you are viewing the data in, but are most meaningful on daily and weekly timeframes).  What the move actually is that volume is confirming, may only be revealed in hindsight.  For example, an issue may breakout of consolidation on high volume, but it could also be rejected later that same day to fall to the bottom of the range.  In the first case, you likely have a bonafide breakout that will continue higher.  In the second case, you recognize that there is significant supply and formidable resistance above.  Whatever the move turns out to be, higher than average volume serves to confirm it.


PS. Missed the XLM move.  I was watching it and had an order in at $0.14/XLM that I ended up cancelling before it got there, it just seemed like there was too much overhead resistance.  Can't catch 'em all.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] * 1
    #27129395 - 01/05/21 10:12 PM (3 years, 22 days ago)

The volatility surrounding cryptocurrencies is a symptom of its nascent structure.  It is a problem, with regard to it being an acceptable means of common exchange in developed countries.  However, when you speak to people in places like Venezuela or Argentina (present day examples, but ultimately any economy operating on a systematically/politically debased fiat currency to support growth -- which we all are even as we are at different stages of the process), where rampant inflation is viscously eroding the value of their currency... even with the volatility, bitcoin makes sense as a meaningful hedge against ultimate collapse.

Circling back to the generally global systematic overspending of all nation states, bitcoin is attractive because it has a known limit of inflation and a maximum supply of 21 million coins.  Couple that with its global adoption in terms of the miners who secure the network and the sheer number of people across diverse economies who recognize the relative security and protection that a currency which can store one's entire wealth through the memorization of 24 words provides... and what we see here, is born true.

Gold is similarly revered for its scarcity and relative lack of inflation.  However the gold market is already along the order of $10 trillion (or perhaps closer to $3 trillion in terms of private sector holdings).  Nevertheless, people give gold its value because they believe that is what it is worth.  It is something relatively hard to produce and obtain, and therefore becomes attractive, relative to the ease with which government issued dollars can be conjured at the will of its congress and/or central bank.  And bitcoin is much easier to carry and transfer than gold!

See again: Visualizing the Purchasing Power of the Dollar Over the Last Century

So far as I'm concerned, unless someone can front run the community developers at large, and crack the cryptography that provides for bitcoin's security, it is increasingly improbable that bitcoin will ever fall to zero.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] * 2
    #27129487 - 01/05/21 11:13 PM (3 years, 22 days ago)

Quote:

Enkidu said:
I am 30 years old. Id like to invest into my future. This is s legitimate opportunity to do that?

Or am i risking every dollar?




You're asking questions for which nobody can give you an honestly straight, reliable answer.  Investment involves risk.  Managing your risk is the name of the game, whether it's with crypto, stocks, your home, your partner, your friends... you get the idea.

Don't look towards others to make your decisions for you.  Find your own confidence and then grow a pair :tongue2:


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] * 1
    #27131802 - 01/06/21 09:43 PM (3 years, 21 days ago)

Presently, I have a sell order on BTC at $39,000.  Momentum is strong here, as I've noted previously, I don't have price predictions for you, and suggest that if your account is growing at rate that surprises you, it's probably time to take a little bit off the table simply as a measure of discipline and prudence.  I cannot however prognosticate specific levels where a selloff will transpire.  I do agree with qman, that the various contributing factors in this nascent space place the wind at its back and an eye toward a continued increase in price over time.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Veggiesandhemp] * 1
    #27132388 - 01/07/21 08:13 AM (3 years, 21 days ago)

There is definitely a growing acceptance that bitcoin can be an easier to store and more transferrable store of wealth than gold.  This relationship is corroborated by the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) seeing outflows of over $4.4 billion in the past month (data from November). The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, however, which trades under the symbol GBTC, has seen inflows of over $1 billion in the same period, according to the latest 8-K filings.

qman brings up the point that I've also highlighted here, that bitcoin is a viable hedge for corporate treasuries that don't want to be exposed to a depreciating dollar, while at the same time adding beta for potential capital gains.  The bitcoin trade has been a good one, and will likely continue as such.  Even here at the Shroomery, we have historically held a large portion of our treasury in bitcoin and ether, especially since PayPal and Stripe blacklisted us several years ago.  In hindsight, they did us a huge favor!


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper]
    #27132473 - 01/07/21 09:08 AM (3 years, 21 days ago)

I hedge my bets by keeping core personal positions off exchange on a Ledger device.  You can buy 2-3 of these and set them up with the same 24 word mnemonic, then store them in different locations for redundancy.  Or you can just memorize the 24 word mnemonic and keep one handy.  If you have a wife or family, you'd also do well to write a cleverly coded letter to your successor, which they will know how to parse to find your mnemonic in the event of your untimely demise.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #27132600 - 01/07/21 10:21 AM (3 years, 21 days ago)

Sold two tranches of BTC, 1/3 of it @ $39,000 and 2/3 of it @ $39,450.  These two sales totaled 1/3 of the BTC in my trading account.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] * 2
    #27132680 - 01/07/21 10:54 AM (3 years, 21 days ago)

Trading account allocations:
  • 36% BTC
  • 29% ETH
  • 18% ca$h
  • 13% DOT
  • 4% XTZ


The momentum is absolutely off the charts, and the trend is by no means anything close to broken.  In that regard, a trailing stop would make more sense than an outright sale.  But I have learned (the hard way) that when an asset moves this bigly, this fast, failing to take something off the table almost invariably leads to regret.

On that note. I have a ladder of buy orders already in place between $24500-$31000.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws]
    #27134216 - 01/07/21 10:50 PM (3 years, 20 days ago)

Quote:

Kraken is pretty good aswell for an alternative to coinbase. I think thats what geokills said he uses. It's usa based too.




Yeah, I use Kraken exclusively these days.  I found out a couple of months ago that one of our OG Shroomerites who registered in 2000 works for them now, and another gentlemen who participates in a small crypto trading slack channel I check in with also works with them.  Given what I've heard, it's a crazy business due to how quickly it has been growing, and they are more or less always putting out fires.  But Kraken has yet to be compromised and generally has reliable uptime. Note: No exchange will be 100% reliable on uptime during periods of high volume trading/big reversals.

Throughout my tenure, I've used Mt. Gox, Binance, Coinbase, Huobi, KuCoin, Cryptopia, hell even Cobinhood for a few trades :lol:.  Exchanges can and do definitely get hacked.  I have a not insignificant claim with the Mt. Gox estate, and a paltry claim with Cryptopia.  If Binance hadn't buckled under pressure from the US, I'd probably still be using them too.  For the time being, Kraken serves me well enough and I generally stand by their ethos.

On the Ledger customer database leak, that was a very unfortunate event indeed.  I have received a few texts attempting to phish me.  Not sure about phone calls, since I rarely if ever pick up calls from numbers that are not in my contacts.  I haven't tried to hunt it down myself, but I would be curious to see the leaked database if someone can PM me and point me in the right direction.  As I understand it, some customers had only partial information leaked while others had more complete (i.e. physical addresses) leaked.

An important reminder that you should have sensitive items such as these shipped to an address other than your home base.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws]
    #27134629 - 01/08/21 07:28 AM (3 years, 20 days ago)

Cryptopia just initiated their claims process about a month or so ago.  You should have received an email that linked you to their liquidation portal to confirm your account.  If you lost access to that email address or just didn't notice it, you might want to reach out to GrantThornton in NZ, who is handling the liquidation.

Quote:

Dear Cryptopia Stakeholder,

You are being emailed as part of the Liquidation of Cryptopia Limited.

The liquidators have applied to the High Court of New Zealand for directions regarding the legal status of customer holdings and the ability to hold Cryptocurrency on trust. The Liquidators have asked the Court to appoint two Queen’s Counsel for these proceedings.

The Court has approved the Queen’s Counsel appointment and service of this order must be effected by the liquidators sending an email with a link to these proceedings for all potential trust beneficiaries and creditors that Cryptopia held email addresses for.

The Court orders and an update from the liquidators can be found at the link below:

https://www.grantthornton.co.nz/update-for-cryptopia-account-holders-25-october-2019/




Honestly, they made the process quite difficult, as you are forced to confirm two data sets relating to your account precisely, and it took me some digging to find data that would work (I believe I ended up digging up one of my last three withdrawal transaction ID's and the exact number of coins and type of asset I held in my account at the time of closure).  I almost just threw my hands up, but was able to get it done after forty five minutes of digging through emails and old notes and using a block explorer to search my wallet address.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] * 2
    #27134805 - 01/08/21 09:39 AM (3 years, 20 days ago)

Hey, if your strategy is working for you, by all means please disregard this advice.  However judging from your posts, I would suggest that you are running the risk of hyperactive trading.  It's not uncommon for this to happen to active traders, but be mindful that you can wear yourself out pretty quickly trying to catch every zig and dodge every zag.  Keep an eye on your bottom line, and if you're not getting paid off for the intense amount of attention you're putting in, consider modifying your approach.  Sometimes, less is more.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper]
    #27136482 - 01/08/21 09:56 PM (3 years, 19 days ago)

Quote:

Grimsweeper said:
No risk

No gain



Hammer, meet nail. :tongue2:


Enkidu, I know you're fired up and feeling potential.  But for goodness sake, cool yer jets amigo! :lol:

Bitcoin and crypto in general is going to be here for a long damn time.  As some of the folks in the SMM trading group have reminded me when I get hyperactive: zoom out.  Start looking at daily and weekly charts more regularly.  If you need to dig deeper, I wouldn't bother going much deeper than a 4 hour chart with crypto.  You just have to do something to smooth out the volatility or you're going to give yourself an aneurism.

Don't be that guy. :toomuchacid:


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
    #27137037 - 01/09/21 08:23 AM (3 years, 19 days ago)



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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #27141482 - 01/11/21 08:33 AM (3 years, 17 days ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
The momentum is absolutely off the charts, and the trend is by no means anything close to broken.  In that regard, a trailing stop would make more sense than an outright sale.  But I have learned (the hard way) that when an asset moves this bigly, this fast, failing to take something off the table almost invariably leads to regret.

On that note. I have a ladder of buy orders already in place between $24500-$31000.




So it comes to pass, that we have what looks a little bit like a blow off top, and fairly similar to the trajectory we saw on the 2017 blowoff.  I'm feeling pretty good about those sales at $39,000 and $39,450.  The first stop on my ladder of standing buy orders more or less marked a short-term/potential low of today's candle @ $31,000.  It's too early to call that a win, hence why I have additional orders stacked deeper in the books.

Service continuity on Kraken is spotty this morning, which is why (as today mylove also indicated) it is important to have standing orders on the books, if you are intent on actively trading around your core positions during periods of high volatility.

It never feels great to see a big sell off like this (unless you're short :tongue2:), but that's why you trim into strength, and buy into weakness, always maintaining some exposure to an asset you want to be involved with over the longer haul.  I am comfortable with keeping $24,500 at the bottom of my buy orders.  While it is reasonable to consider a fall back to $20K to retest the old highs, I believe there is simply too much big money that is underexposed and looking for entries into this asset class, and that the odds of a move back to $20,000 are slim.

Best of luck to all.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: InnerWisdom] * 2
    #27141659 - 01/11/21 10:01 AM (3 years, 17 days ago)

Quote:

InnerWisdom said:
-30% is healthy bull market action?  I suppose in new growth stocks, trendy stocks. I was under the impression that institutional money had entered big time..?




Cryptocurrency is, de facto, a new and growing asset class.  Institutional money is beginning to enter crypto assets, which is why we have seen the the run we have seen.  But as generally sophisticated and well capitalized investors, they will wait for multiple price cycles to do their buying as profitably as they can.  As qman pointed out, with bitcoin's market cap at ~$500 billion, and the aggregate crypto asset class just touching ~$1 trillion recently (a portion of which simply cannot be realized due to lost keys), there is still a lot of potential here.

Take for example pension funds, which are a large component of what is often referred to "institutional money".  The OECD reported in June 2020 that global pension fund assets rose to $32 trillion in 2019.  Then comes mutual funds, which in the US alone held north of $17 trillion in 2018.  Not to mention insurance companies, investment banks, commercial trusts, endowment funds ($1.7 trillion in 2018), hedge funds ($3.2 trillion as of 2018), and some private equity investors.

I would be hard pressed to give you a specific number for what comprises the total global basket of institutional money, suffice it to say, it is a lot... well over $50 trillion.  So with bitcoin valued at some $500 billion, one can surely see, from a broader bird's eye view of the space, the immense potential of this asset class to continue to run.


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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: eLeSDenes]
    #27143332 - 01/12/21 08:05 AM (3 years, 16 days ago)

Let's not forget that we had a 20% pullback in BTC just last week, immediately preceding the march to $40K.  Now, what I would like to see, is a higher low than yesterday, to create the right "V" of a "W" on an intraday chart setup.  If that right "V" of the "W" breaks below $30K, that would print a bonafide head and shoulders reversal pattern with a downside target of, you may have guessed, the old highs at $20K.

Thus far, the right side of the W is printing a higher low, which can be considered a reasonably strong buy signal for active traders (we would need to see a move above ~$36,500 to confirm).  It's all in your perspective really, and every single participant is always only guessing.  Panic should never be part of your recipe for success.

To be sure, patterns don't always come to fruition, but they are something worth being mindful of.


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