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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws]
#27116162 - 12/30/20 12:15 PM (3 years, 29 days ago) |
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There will always be the "would haves"... my advice is to take Celsius off your charts and forget about it. We all miss opportunities, you'll do more psychological damage by allowing yourself to wallow in your regret. I was HUGE on leap options for AAPL way back when the iPhone first came out. But I fumbled that trade... now the company is worth over a trillion dollars and if I did this/that/the other thing, I'd have made millions. Too bad, so sad. Live to trade another day. There was no way you could have known that Celsius was going to pop, that thing was downright stagnant for a very long time, I think you made the right call to ditch it.
I probably mentioned it in this thread way back when, but I accumulated NEBL at around $1 and watched it go north of $60. That position was worth hundreds of thousands at that point, and while I made a small sale near the top (and continued to sell on the way down), I rode a not insignificant portion of the position back down to single digits. Your decision to ditch Celsius was at least appropriate. My decision to round-trip a big part of my NEBL trade was pure negligence. Eyes forward, friend!
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27116175 - 12/30/20 12:21 PM (3 years, 29 days ago) |
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Incidentally, I have initiated a small position in Polkadot (DOT), about 5% of aggregate. It shares some similar governance and self-amending characteristics as Tezos, with a focus on cross-chain interoperability. Not to mention, it's staking reward is north of 13% annually.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27116829 - 12/30/20 06:11 PM (3 years, 29 days ago) |
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There is some decent selling volume hitting the tape right now in fact. Not saying it won't get soaked up, but, just saying.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] 2
#27116859 - 12/30/20 06:28 PM (3 years, 28 days ago) |
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You don't need to predict (and truly, you cannot, no one has a crystal ball that tells the future). You need to develop a disciplined approach to trading. If you have big profits, it's worth it to scale out of a part of your position. I just sold a tranche of BTC @ $28,500 and ETH @ $735. This asset has had a MONSTER move, in a very short period of time. Now I am not saying that the move is over. I believe that, over time, we will see significantly higher prices on these assets. But there is always an ebb and a flow, and when you are up huge, it is important to take something off the table, so that 1) you have free capital available to redeploy and 2) you don't get psychologically injured by an inevitable selloff that in turn causes you to lose your grip on your strategy/discipline.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Grimsweeper] 2
#27119026 - 12/31/20 06:29 PM (3 years, 27 days ago) |
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Keep in mind, the % differences between $29.3K (where we are now) and $30K is a paltry 2.38%. Don't get married to solid figures. Recognize that so many traders do make that mistake, and front run them, if you are planning to sell anyway. Trading isn't for bragging rights, or hitting any specific number, it's for making money, plain and simple.
That being said, the trend is your friend... and BTC continues to set higher daily highs and higher daily lows. The lack of liquidity for this asset class when it's getting a main stage spotlight is a powerful force. Don't underestimate it. If you are keeping your assets on exchange and want to liquidate a portion, set a sell stop at the prior day's low, then raise it each day we print a higher low.
Oh, and that Polkadot (DOT) I allocated 5% of the portfolio to just two days ago @ ~$7? I doubled down at $8 and sold half on today's +30% move @ $9.40. I didn't expect to actively trade this position. But not taking some profits on a 30% daily move is just plain negligent in my book. I've learned this the hard way too... when the going is good, you feel like a genius and only dream about how much more money you'll be minting in no time flat. That's typically when the market comes around with a not-so-nice reality check. Anywho, DOT has good volume and a very strong uptrend. If you look at the weekly chart, this thing could have a HUGE move higher. Still wouldn't put more than 10-15% of an aggregate portfolio in an immature coin such as this, but I do recall a post last week asking about what alt's might do well next year. DOT is leading the pack in my view. UNI has proven capable as well, however the volume is lacking.
Best of luck folks, here's hoping 2021 offers us some brighter days. Here in Los Angeles, we have the National Guard posting around some major hospitals, tents going up, patients being treated in the hospital gift shop and others dying in hallways, with morgues/crypts at full capacity. Given Christmas and New Years, I can only suspect it's going to get worse before it gets better.
Thankful to be self employed and hunkered down at home with the fam. Be safe everyone.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws] 1
#27119053 - 12/31/20 06:44 PM (3 years, 27 days ago) |
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Quote:
sh4d0ws said: USA users
When you trade on coinbase do they send you guys tax forms or whatever the necessary documents are for all your trades? Or is that something you still have to do yourself?
Is it true basically every move you can make is a taxable event, even trading between different cryptocurrencies without going to fiat?
I don't use Coinbase, but I do believe that accounts trading in excess of $20,000 in a tax year will be reported to the IRS. Unfortunately, from what I understand at this point, the forms being sent out by exchanges only report the sales numbers. This means that the onus is on the account owner to calculate and report their cost basis for each transaction, such that it may be deducted from the reportable proceeds, in order to figure out what tax is owed. This is the same way stock transactions were handled until the last decade, and it is an accounting nightmare for anyone who actively trades.
I suspect that eventually the exchanges will get around to issuing a proper 1099-B that includes the basis and proceeds in a single document, taking a lot of the guesswork out. Of course, if you are transferring between private wallets and/or multiple exchanges, you will still have a complicated accounting situation to deal with.
These days, my personal accounts are basically untouched on a ledger. But I do all my ins & outs for the corporate treasury I manage on Kraken, and I use CoinTracking.info to organize my tax reporting/liability. I accept payments directly to the exchange account, sent payments as withdrawals from the exchange wallet, and these events (i.e. income vs spends) can be specified in the CoinTracking interface for proper accounting. Kraken also offers decent staking rewards (e.g. for XTZ and DOT), and CoinTracking accurately accounts for them as income on the reports.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27120333 - 01/01/21 12:29 PM (3 years, 27 days ago) |
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That DOT I sold @ $9.40 yesterday was put back in play @ $8.25 just now. This position remains a relatively small part of my total trading portfolio, but it has steadily grown, as strong positions do.
I also just sold a second tranche of ETH @ $725 this morning. If ETH flags here for a while, I will buy it back on a break above $760. It'll need to trade sideways for at least a few days though, for me the feel comfortable buying the breakout.
Managed positions for company treasury:
- 36.5% BTC
- 36.5% ETH
- 10% DOT
- 5% XTZ
- 12% ca$h
Personal account (not traded/cold storage):
- 70% BTC
- 20% ETH
- 7% XTZ
- 2% NEO
- < 1% TZROP
- < 1% NCT
- < 1% HBAR
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] 1
#27120722 - 01/01/21 04:28 PM (3 years, 27 days ago) |
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EOS is a no for me.
BTC is (short-term) tightening up very nicely here right above $29,000. I decided to throw the bulk of that 12% cash position back into BTC. The publicly traded Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in December bought roughly three times the amount of BTC miners were able to produce during the same period. This is a major liquidity crunch for the asset, and why the uptrend has scarcely faltered. I’m not saying there can’t be a major sell off, but that data point in conjunction with the strength of the price action and the anecdotal posts of “sold out bulls” just waiting for the inevitable crash to buy in... that’s a recipe for continued upside.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27120812 - 01/01/21 05:31 PM (3 years, 27 days ago) |
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Sold more ETH @ $721. This thing printed lower highs and lower lows over the last two days. We are very extended above the 20 day moving average, which has more or less held support for price over the past two months. The Eth 2.0 news has been digested and I don't suspect any news driven events to drive price in the near term for this asset. BTC will remain the focus for big money.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27120987 - 01/01/21 07:13 PM (3 years, 26 days ago) |
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I like them both, to be sure. But you can see how ETH has underperformed BTC here. I just think that the news cycle for ETH is going to be slower for a few months. Whereas BTC is the defacto tool for crypto asset allocation for institutional managers and thus more likely to see a sustained bid. I still hold quite a bit of ETH. With regard to these sales I've noted, each one has been no more than 10-15% of my total ETH, so I'm still holding 2/3 of my original bag. In my personal, cold storage account, I haven't moved anything and don't really intend to.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27121826 - 01/02/21 10:44 AM (3 years, 26 days ago) |
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Selling that ETH @ $721 wasn't ideal, but moving the bulk of my cash back into BTC more than made up for the exchange.
I have sold more ETH here @ $777 and a bit of BTC @ $32,650. My trading account is now at 22% cash. We are way outside of the daily bollinger bands after a huge move over the past three months, and discipline requires that I take some off the table.
Trading Account Summary:
- 41% BTC
- 23% ETH
- 22% CA$H
- 10.5% DOT
- 3.5% XTZ
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27121843 - 01/02/21 10:54 AM (3 years, 26 days ago) |
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Quote:
Enkidu said: What happens as the price increases and the amount of bitcoin available becomes less and less...?
Is there some sort of cap to its worth?
This is simple supply and demand. Since BTC's supply is forecasted and capped at 21 million units, it is the elasticity of demand that will determine prices. There is no maximum price, price is determined by market forces. However much people are willing to pay for it. We are seeing a short squeeze now, with gasoline being poured on it due to the liquidity crisis of bitcoin's supply running far below the rate at which market participants are trying to accumulate. Competition amongst buyers is heating up. I would expect a meaningful pullback before too long, which is why I am raising cash. However, I do expect pullbacks to stabilize rather quickly due to the nature of BTC's limited supply alongside the increasing interest from asset managers. Hence why I have not liquidated anything from my personal accounts.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27121845 - 01/02/21 10:57 AM (3 years, 26 days ago) |
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Quote:
Enkidu said: Geo if i only have 1500 on the table is it even worth taking anything out or would you reccomend to just keep it in place and build on it during large dips nce i have funds available, which atm i dont
Learning to trade around a core position is important if you want to actively manage your own money. The dollar amount of your investments should not be a focus so much as the percentage moves. Trading well will serve you well regardless of your total capital. That said, if you don't want to actively trade, there's nothing wrong with riding the prevailing trend for a long term asset allocation strategy. I can't tell you what to do. Everyone has their own unique skill sets, motivations and variable amounts of available time to work with.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: qman] 1
#27122397 - 01/02/21 04:22 PM (3 years, 26 days ago) |
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Quote:
qman said: I thought I would put out the Bitcoin miners that trade publicly. These stocks are just beginning to move higher and provide investors a leveraged approach to the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum. At some point down the road, institutional money is going to flow into these very small capitalization stocks and gains will be very large. The nice thing about most of these names is that they don't sell their coins and just put it on the balance sheet.
1. RIOT- Riot Blockchain $1.1 billion MC. 2. MARA- Marathon Patent Group- $550 million MC 3. BTBT- Bit Digital $960 million MC 4. BFARF- BitFarms $170 million MC 5. HVBTF- Hive Blockchain Technologies $650 million MC 6. HUTMF - Hut 8 Mining Corp. $265 million 7. ARBKF- Argo Blockchain $132 million
Thanks for bringing this list to our attention qman. I've been in and out of RIOT/MARA/GBTC, but haven't looked at any of the other names. Some really thinly traded names there, but if the sector keeps moving the way it has been, there's little reason to believe these won't continue to work.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27122665 - 01/02/21 06:59 PM (3 years, 25 days ago) |
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I wouldn't get too caught up in technical indicators such as RSI. There are some that I consider a little more useful than others, such as:
- 8 period EMA on the daily/15min time frame
- 20/50/200 period SMA on any time frame
- Bollinger Bands
To a lesser extent, it can be nice to setup "point of control" with 3 respective support and resistance zones when doing intraday trading. Fibonacci retracement levels can also prove useful, although I only use them rarely, on stocks that are experiencing HUGE swings.
Most indicators however, are based on two things: price and volume. So while it can be interesting to consider the various mathematical derivatives of these metrics, they are almost without exception, confirming signals (i.e. indicators that confirm what is already depicted in a standard price chart), and should not be considered predictive.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Brian Jones] 3
#27122941 - 01/02/21 10:35 PM (3 years, 25 days ago) |
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You should find a way to custody your own vault of ETH, the native currency of the Ethereum network. Understanding you indicated your interest in cryptocurrency "not so much", but ETH has utility far beyond that of a currency. It is - with the potential exception of bitcoin - the most actively developed blockchain platform in existance today. It has been practically solely responsible for the decentralized finance (aka DeFi) renaissance that has in turn brought billions of dollars into the space. As the leading "smart contract" blockchain, Ethereum offers a broad array of application opportunities, and could ultimately live up to its promise of becoming the decentralized internet, unreliant legacy gateway providers and entirely community hosted with no central authority, cryptographic identity solutions, the whole 9. It'll be a bit of a winding road, but Ethereum is impressive, far more than anything blockchain related that is publicly traded through your broker.
PS. BTC > $34K 
My next standing sell orders are presently @ $39,000/BTC & $935/ETH.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27123479 - 01/03/21 09:24 AM (3 years, 25 days ago) |
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$935/ETH sell order filled. Just moved 25% of my personal cold storage ETH on exchange for sale as it approaches $1,000.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] 1
#27123498 - 01/03/21 09:33 AM (3 years, 25 days ago) |
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Sold ETH @ $965.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu] 2
#27124280 - 01/03/21 04:27 PM (3 years, 25 days ago) |
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qman is not posting about altcoins, he posted a basket of stocks comprised of publicly traded blockchain mining companies. You can invest in these instruments through an online broker such as TDAmeritrade.
Bought more DOT this morning @ $9.80. Very strong momentum with good volume for an altcoin. Partial standing sell order @ $10.80.
Remarkable that ETH is holding its huge move from this morning, hanging out just under $1,000. At this point, I have sold 50% of the ETH in my trading account between $721 - $965. I have another sell order in place @ $1225 for a third of the remaining position. Would ideally look to reload between $500-$700, although with this level of positive momentum, I might not get that chance.
It's going to be real interesting to see what happens when the financial markets open tomorrow and the big boys start sloshing their capital around.
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geokills
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27124369 - 01/03/21 05:19 PM (3 years, 25 days ago) |
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As I've noted before, I try not to get caught up in price targets. I generally trade incrementally (in scales), around a core position. When you have a high momentum uptrend like this, you "sell the rips and buy the dips". There is, in my view, no way to fundamentally value ETH (or any altcoin, for that matter). Its use cases are too broad, and because of this complexity, its risk profile is also higher. BTC on the other hand, taken as a de facto inflation proof "store of value" proposition, can be compared reasonably well to the gold market, which holds a market capitalization of around $10 trillion. With BTC's market cap presently just over $600 billion, you can see that there may be a lot of room to run higher.
Incidentally, I'm not trying to paint ETH in a negative light. I am only trying to highlight some of the issues that lend institutional money to prefer BTC as their primary crypto allocation, at this juncture. Personally, I think ETH can see new highs... but I'm not sure when, and I'm not really focused on that proposition because it isn't what is in front of me right now. Now IF ETH were to break to a new ATH, that would be something to pay attention to, but until it happens, I'll just keep trading in scales around my core positions.
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